by Ben Taylor
Fifth oil and gas licensing round delayed
Tanzania’s Petroleum Upstream Regulatory Authority (PURA) first announced the fifth oil and gas licensing round in February 2025, targeting an opening on March 5 with 26 blocks (23 offshore in the Indian Ocean and three in Lake Tanganyika). This was then deferred to May to maximise investor visibility, aligning with events like the Africa Energies Summit in London on May 13. Pre-launch promotions emphasised the blocks’ potential, backed by over 57 trillion cubic feet of known gas reserves and extensive seismic data (132,000 km²), positioning it as the first major bidding process in over a decade.
However, updates through mid-2025 consistently described it as “poised to launch” or “preparing to offer” opportunities, without crossing into active status. By June and July, industry analysts still framed it as an upcoming event tied to broader natural gas expansion goals.
At the time of writing, the official licensing round website (tanzanialicensinground.com) states that PURA “hopes to make a pre-announcement soon” on the fifth offshore round, with full guidelines, data packages, and deadlines still pending as of late September. No bid submissions have been solicited or received, and requirements for technical/financial proposals remain outlined but not activated.
In a meeting at Africa Oil Week in Accra (late September), PURA Director General Victor Bujuba invited Chevron to participate, explicitly noting “plans to launch a bidding round” for the blocks – indicating it’s not yet live.
No official explanation for the hold-up has been detailed, but contextual factors include aligning with LNG negotiations and ensuring investor reassurance under President Samia Suluhu Hassan’s administration. Global energy market volatility and the need for streamlined processes may also play a role. Analysts remain optimistic, viewing it as a “very important moment” for Tanzania’s energy future, potentially unlocking upstream investments and bolstering exports.
LNG negotiations remain stalled
The lengthy negotiations for the proposed $42 billion onshore liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant in Lindi, Tanzania, remain in advanced but unresolved stages. The project, led by a consortium including Equinor (35% stake), Shell (25%), ExxonMobil (20%), and partners like TotalEnergies and Pavilion Energy, aims to process up to 25 million tonnes of LNG annually from offshore gas fields such as Likomba, Lavani, and Mtwara. The core sticking points – local content requirements, tax incentives, and domestic participation – persist, delaying the Host Government Agreement (HGA) and final investment decision (FID).
Government officials, including President Samia Suluhu Hassan and Energy Minister Doto Biteko (also Deputy Prime Minister), continue to describe talks as “nearing completion,” with an FID targeted for late 2025, potentially enabling construction to start in 2026 and first exports by 2032. However, no binding agreements have been publicly confirmed, and the process appears intertwined with Tanzania’s October 28 general election, where project momentum is being leveraged for political support.
In January, investors had expressed confidence in wrapping up talks “early this year,” citing agreement on key HGA elements from prior framework deals (signed in 2022). This built on a 2023 preliminary HGA but addressed outstanding issues like profit-sharing.
Around April and May, Minister Biteko acknowledged delays due to local content disputes but pledged resolution of three core issues (taxes, participation, incentives) for a 2025 signing. By May, the government reported “significant progress,” aligning with a broader push for gas monetisation amid global LNG demand.
A tantalising near-breakthrough came in July, when officials announced the HGA could finalise “within two weeks” (i.e. by early August), following Attorney General consultations on revisions. Mr Biteko attributed this to President Samia’s direct involvement, positioning it as a pathway to FID by year-end. Industry analysts viewed this as a pivotal shift, potentially unlocking $5-7 billion in initial investments.
However, no follow-up confirmation emerged. August passed without announcements, and Global Energy Monitor’s June assessment noted ongoing delays from financial agreement tweaks. This pattern echoes historical stalls under previous administrations, where investor concerns over resource nationalism halted progress.
Recent updates have clustered around President Samia’s southern campaign tour (September 25-28), reiterate “nearing take-off” without new milestones. In Lindi rallies, she described negotiations as “sensitive and costly” after two years, vowing immediate implementation post-signing if re-elected, and highlighting a new LNG training college as a local benefit. Prime Minister Kassim Majaliwa echoed this, framing the project as a CCM triumph after 12+ years of delays. The ruling party’s manifesto also “reignites” the initiative, promising economic transformation.
Critically, these statements are all aspirational, with nothing to indicate meaningful breakthroughs. Analysts suggest that the election is inflating rhetoric, with real progress likely deferred until after the elections.
Key hurdles include balancing investor returns (amid volatile LNG prices) with Tanzania’s local content mandates. If resolved, the plant could add an estimated 10% to GDP and create 8,000 jobs, per government estimates. Yet, without HGA closure soon, slippage to 2026 – or beyond – is probable.
Gold: refining and expansion
Gold mining, Tanzania’s extractive cornerstone, reported robust growth. The sector earned USD$700 million in the first half of 2025, fuelled by higher output and prices. In July, the government mandated large-scale miners to refine and trade at least 20% of output locally, aiming to build national reserves – the Bank of Tanzania acquired 4.8 tonnes by May.
Major projects progressed: Perseus Mining’s $700 million Nyanzaga gold project, greenlit in April, advanced construction in May, marking Tanzania’s first major gold development in 17 years and promising 220,000 ounces annually. Lake Victoria Gold secured a free carried interest agreement with the government in September, easing fiscal hurdles for its operations. Infrastructure bolstered output; Hitachi Energy connected the Geita gold mine to the national grid in late September, enhancing efficiency at one of Africa’s largest operations.
Helium and critical minerals
Helium extraction has emerged as a bright spot in Tanzania’s extractives sector. Helium One Global advanced its Southern Rukwa project, finalising license terms in June and securing equipment for well development. An independent report in late June validated reserves, with pilot plant commissioning targeted for December 2025. Neighbouring Noble Helium upgraded its North Rukwa resource estimate by 28.5% in July, boosting prospective volumes and drawing investor interest amid global helium shortages.
Base metals and other minerals gained traction. Lifezone Metals closed a $60 million bridge loan for the Kabanga nickel project in September, targeting first production in 2025 and positioning Tanzania as a key supplier for EV batteries. A July-August report highlighted Tanzania’s “bold copper leap,” with innovations to process low-grade ore into high-purity concentrates locally. East Africa Metals updated its Magambazi gold-tantalum project in August, partnering for development and license renewal. August’s minerals value-addition report identified 14 opportunities across gold, graphite, copper, and fertilizers, worth billions. Uranium extraction preparations advanced in July, with 139 million tonnes of deposits promising a 22-year mine life. Rising prices for base metals in 2025 amplified these prospects.