Tanzanian Affairs is a magazine with news and current affairs issued by the Britain-Tanzania Society. It is published three times a year. The views expressed or reported are those of the person concerned and do not necessarily represent the views of the Britain-Tanzania Society. All the information is copyright – please refer here for more details.
TA ISSUE 142
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TA 142 cover features Dr Jane Goodall who died on 1st October 2025
Find the latest issue (Oct 2025) on the Britain Tanzanian Society website https://www.britaintanzaniasociety.co.uk/member-zone/ (membership required).
The issue will be uploaded to this site in Feb 2026 to join the searchable archive.
TA ISSUE 141
TA 141 cover image is taken from the “National Clean Cooking Strategy (2024-2034)”
publication showing cooking on electric as a cleaner alternative to charcoal.
Tundu Lissu charged with treason
Coping with USAID cuts
Clean Cooking – Africa Energy Summit
Reviews
A pdf of the issue can be downloaded here
POLITICS
Tundu Lissu during his court appearance in April 2025
Tundu Lissu arrested, charged with treason
On April 9, 2025, Tundu Lissu, the recently elected chairperson of Chadema, the most prominent opposition party, and the party’s most likely 2025 presidential candidate, was arrested in Mbinga, southwest Tanzania. He had been addressing a rally calling for electoral reforms under the slogan “No Reforms, No Election.”
Lissu was charged with treason, a non-bailable offense carrying a potential death penalty, and three counts of “publication of false information” under Tanzania’s cybercrime laws, stemming from a YouTube post on April 3, 2025, alleging police involvement in electoral malpractices ordered by President Samia Suluhu Hassan.
Lissu was transferred to Dar es Salaam and appeared at Kisutu Magistrates Court on April 10, 2025. His treason case was adjourned to April 24, 2025, and he remains in custody, as treason charges do not allow bail.
On April 24, the police used force, including teargas, to disperse Chadema supporters outside the court, injuring at least 14 people. Lissu refused to attend a virtual court hearing, and two Chadema officials, John Heche and John Mnyika, were arrested en route to a join a group of supporters near the courthouse.
In context
On April 12, 2025, the Independent National Elections Commission barred Chadema from participating in the October 2025 elections, citing the party’s refusal to sign an electoral code of conduct, which Chadema views as a tool to suppress opposition. This disqualification severely limits Lissu’s and Chadema’s ability to challenge the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM).
Lissu has consistently called for an electoral commission that is genuinely independent, arguing that the current one, appointed by President Hassan, cannot ensure free and fair elections. His campaign intensified after the November 2024 local elections, where Chadema claimed thousands of its candidates were disqualified, allowing CCM to win almost all the seats contested.
A recent address to party members included a strong reminder of last year’s local government elections where official results gave candidates from the ruling CCM party more than 99% of the grassroots level seats at stake amid widespread claims of electoral fraud. “After going through that experience, any Chadema member who hopes to win in the same circumstances is not serious,” Lissu said. “We will just be slaughtered again, and that’s why we are pushing for reforms across the entire system of conducting the elections to prevent a repeat of that kind of farce.”
In September 2024, a senior Chadema official, Ali Mohamed Kibao, was abducted and killed, and the Tanganyika Law Society has reported 83 abductions or disappearances of government critics. There have also been mass arrests, including over 100 Chadema members (and five journalists) in Mbeya in August 2024, for planning a youth rally.
Lissu is no stranger to political difficulties. In 2017, he survived an assassination attempt, sustaining 16 bullet wounds, which forced him into exile in Belgium until 2020. He ran against President John Magufuli in the 2020 election, which was marred by allegations of rigging, and returned to Tanzania in 2023 after Hassan lifted a ban on rallies.
Some responses
Neither the Home Affairs Minister, Prime Minister nor President Samia Suluhu Hassan have directly addressed Lissu’s April 2025 arrest in public statements available up to May 15, 2025.
President Samia has previously positioned herself as open to dialogue with opposition leaders, though Chadema leaders have questioned how wholehearted these efforts have been. Despite introducing some reforms in 2021-2022, such as lifting bans on opposition rallies, recent signs suggest Hassan is retreating from democratic commitments, with Lissu’s arrest seen as part of a strategy to suppress opposition ahead of the October 2025 elections.
Zitto Kabwe, a leading figure in ACT Wazalendo, Tanzania’s second-largest opposition party, has expressed his concern over Lissu’s arrest. “Tundu Lissu’s case is a test for Tanzania’s democratic credentials under President Samia. How the courts handle it will be closely watched, both locally and internationally.” Unlike Chadema, ACT Wazalendo did (with reservations) sign the electoral code of conduct.
John Heche, the vice-chair of Chadema, defended Lissu’s campaign for electoral reform, invoking Tanzania’s founding president: “Mwalimu Nyerere said that Tanzanian youth should rebel against oppressive systems. What is the problem with rebelling against people who steal elections, against elections being stolen?”
John Mnyika, the party’s secretary general said: “They may silence Lissu for a day, but they cannot silence the will of the people forever.”
The party has also released official statements on the case. “The arrest of the Chairman of Chadema, Tundu Lissu, is a clear signal by the Samia and CCM regime that they do not respect the Constitution of the United Republic of Tanzania that declares Tanzania to be a multiparty democracy.”
Religious leaders in Tanzania have actively commented on Tundu Lissu’s arrest and the broader state of Tanzania’s democracy, expressing alarm over democratic backsliding and human rights violations. On April 20, 2025, the TEC, representing Catholic bishops, issued a statement calling for the immediate and unconditional release of Lissu and other detained political leaders, emphasizing that such actions are essential for preserving national peace ahead of the October 2025 elections.
The European Parliament and Amnesty International have called for Lissu’s immediate release, condemning his arrest as politically motivated and urging Tanzania to uphold freedom of expression and assembly. On May 8, the EU Parliament passed a resolution condemning Lissu’s arrest and expressing “grave concern over the charges against him, which appear to be politically motivated and carry the risk of capital punishment.” It called for his “immediate and unconditional release,” ensuring his safety and right to a fair trial and legal representation. The resolution also urged Tanzania to respect democratic principles and allow opposition parties to operate freely.
A backlash to the backlash?
Father Charles Kitima, secretary general of the TEC (Tanzania Episcopal Conference), who was attacked in April
Father Charles Kitima, secretary general of the TEC and a longstanding critic of human rights abuses, was attacked on April 30, 2025 at the TEC headquarters in Kurasini, Dar es Salaam, by unknown assailants. It has been widely alleged that this was in retaliation for his outspoken stance. He had criticised the government’s actions, including Lissu’s detention, as “unlawful”, and linked Lissu’s arrest to broader electoral malpractices. “Stealing citizens’ votes, introducing fake or invalid ballots, and declaring someone who did not receive the majority of votes, while ignoring the rightful winner, that is evil, and it is the work of the devil.”
In a social media video recorded just hours before he was attacked, Kitima criticized “lawlessness” in Tanzania’s political system, urging the government to address electoral injustices to ensure free and fair polls. Following his attack, he relayed a message urging Tanzanians to “stand firm in defending fundamental national issues” and “not be afraid to pay the price for upholding justice and our national responsibilities.”
Opposition leaders condemned the attack, including Chadema’s John Heche who described it as “bad news for the country” and ACT Wazalendo’s Dorothy Semu who said it was “shocking and disturbing”. She questioned whether an ordinary person would attack a prominent religious leader in such a public location.
The government has not directly responded to Kitima’s specific comments on Lissu or electoral reforms, nor has it issued an official comment on the attack on Fr Kitima. However, both President Samia Suluhu Hassan and the Prime Minister Kassim Majaliwa had recently warned religious leaders against using their platforms for political purposes. Just in April, Mr Majaliwa urged religious leaders to focus on moral issues like gender-based violence rather than political matters.
On May 2nd, the EU delegation in Tanzania expressed being “deeply saddened” by the attack, and the US Embassy issued a statement condemning the “shocking and brutal attack.” The EU described Kitima as a “respected voice for civic education, inter-faith dialogue, and a peaceful, inclusive society.” They echoed calls for a “thorough investigation” and wished for Kitima’s speedy recovery, emphasizing his role in promoting democratic values.
Looking to the election
The next issue of Tanzanian Affairs is due out in October, around the time of the next elections. In the meantime, the situation is more than usually tense.
Chadema’s decision effectively to boycott the election means that one of the major players in Tanzanian politics will be sitting on the sidelines. It has also introduced some intra-opposition tension, as the other major opposition party – ACT Wazalendo – with a big presence in Zanzibar has not joined the boycott.
Both decisions are understandable. ACT’s major focus is Zanzibar, where the previous experience of CUF election boycotts has been that this has been ineffective and results only in a party being entirely locked out of power for five years. Party leader, Zitto Kabwe wrote recently that “to boycott these elections would be to hand victory to those who thrive on our silence. Instead, we fight, inspired by warriors of change who turned rigged elections into battlegrounds for justice. And that we will surely do!”
For Chadema, they highlight a situation where two key “referees” – the registrar of political parties and the electoral commission – are far from independent and ask how a meaningful election is possible in such circumstances. The “election code of conduct” appeared to be the immediate cause of their decision not to participate, and the party claims the code was a tool to suppress opposition. Nevertheless, their slogan “no reforms, no election” makes it clear that without significant electoral and/or constitutional reform, they were never likely to make a different choice.
With Chadema sitting things out, CCM faces little opposition. The only other party of significance is ACT-Wazalendo, which lacks Chadema’s organisational strength (with the exception of Zanzibar).
Voter turnout, which fell from 67% in 2015 to 52% in 2020, may fall even further, reflecting growing number who question the point of voting.
Electoral reform, particularly the establishment of a truly independent electoral commission, has been a central demand of opposition parties, civil society, and religious leaders. However, there are no prospects for meaningful reform before October 2025. In February 2024, Parliament passed amendments including the National Electoral Commission Act adding “Independent” to the name of the National Electoral Commission (NEC), making it “INEC” and shifting appointments to a panel chaired by the chief justice. However, these changes have been widely criticised as cosmetic, as the president retains veto power over appointees, and returning officers remain presidential appointees.
In September 2023, the President cited “insufficient time” for constitutional reform before the 2024 local elections, a stance that logically extends to 2025. This was despite a 2022 government task force recommending an independent electoral body and constitutional review. The government’s introduction of bills effectively maintaining the status quo as well as its response to Chadema’s “no reform, no election” campaign, have made it clear that the government has no inclination for change.
President Samia’s initial reforms (initiating cross-party dialogue, lifting rally bans in 2023, etc.) raised hopes for a democratic revival. However, more recent actions, including appointing Magufuli loyalists like Paul Makonda (see Issue 139), the arrest of Lissu and a growing number of apparent disappearances of critics strongly suggest a return to a hardline approach.
Neither domestic advocacy nor international pressure has shifted CCM’s stance, and the party’s ongoing dominance suggests that the official election results are not difficult to forecast. Given the high state of tension, however, as well as widespread anger among opposition party supporters, the broader outcome of the election is much more open. Chadema supporters in particular will have no obvious outlet for their frustrations. Protests and rallies are likely, to which the police response is highly predictable.
MOBILE INTERNET ACCESS
by Ben Taylor
Rapid growth in mobile internet access, and mobile money
The Tanzanian Communications Regulatory Authority (TCRA) has reported rapid growth in internet access in recent years, driven primarily by the use of mobile phones. The latest Communication Statistics Report, covering January to March 2025, reveals that internet service subscriptions have grown to 49.3 million, close to double the figure from December 2020 (25.2 million).
Mobile broadband (defined as 3G and above) leads with 27 million subscriptions, while a further 22 million depend on 2G subscriptions. Around 230,000 have fixed-line internet subscriptions. Many users may have more than one subscription.
According to the report, the improved connectivity is driven by significant infrastructure upgrades, and is reshaping the country’s social and economic landscape. The report shows that the population living in areas covered by 3G networks grew to 92.2%, while 4G coverage increased to 91% percent, and 5G coverage rose to 23%.
Meanwhile, a Bank of Tanzania Report covering payment systems in 2024 reported that the value of mobile money payments rose by 29% compared to 2023, which itself had seen a 35% rise above 2022 figures. The total value of mobile money payments in 2024 is reported as TSh 198.9 trillion (approx. GBP £55 billion), up from TSh 114 trillion in 2022. Dr Tobias Swai of the University of Dar es Salaam said one of the most significant benefits of Tanzania’s digital payment boom is the impact on financial inclusion. He said digital platforms have allowed millions of people, especially in rural areas, to access financial services without the need to visit a physical bank branch. “This shift is making financial services more accessible and convenient for people across Tanzania,” Dr Swai said.
For context, Tanzania’s GDP in 2024 is estimated at USD $79 billion (approx. GBP £59 billion.) The mobile money sector’s total transaction value being close to or exceeding Tanzania’s GDP in 2024 underscores its critical role in the economy. However, the high proportion likely reflects the rapid circulation of funds, where the same funds are transacted multiple times within a year, inflating the total value relative to GDP, rather than mobile money directly contributing an equivalent amount to economic output.
ATTACKS ON ALBINISM
by Charlotte Baker
Attacks on people with albinism in Tanzania: African court holds government responsible – why it matters
Charlotte Baker, Professor of French and Critical Disability Studies, Lancaster University
This article was originally published on TheConversation.com
People with albinism face widespread discrimination in many sub-Saharan African countries. In Tanzania, this minority has been subjected to extreme forms of violence. The government’s failure to protect their rights prompted the filing of a case before the African Court on Human and Peoples’ Rights. The case was brought by Tanzanian and international civil rights groups against the government of Tanzania. They were seeking more robust legal protections from the state for people with albinism.
In February 2025, the court delivered a landmark judgment, holding Tanzania accountable for human rights violations against persons with albinism.
What is the background to the case?
Human rights violations and abuses against people with albinism in Tanzania are common. This includes extreme forms of violence such as killings, abductions, mutilations and infanticide. Even after a person with albinism has died, their graves are at risk of exhumation to obtain body parts for sale.
A range of traditional and more modern beliefs drive the oppression of people with albinism. However, structural reasons related to social inequities have created a market in the body parts of people with albinism. These are used for the production of “charms” by “witchdoctors” who promise they’ll bring wealth and success.
The first media reports of attacks on people with albinism in Tanzania emerged in 2007, bringing international attention to the issue. Since then, over 700 attacks and killings in 28 countries have been reported to the Canadian NGO Under the Same Sun, although many more go unrecorded. The organisation works to end discrimination and violence against persons with albinism.
In Tanzania, there have been 209 reports of attacks since 2007. In June 2024, a two-year-old girl with albinism was abducted and killed in Kagera region.
What does the court ruling mean for persons with albinism?
Under international human rights law, the fundamental rights of persons with albinism must be protected under the UN’s Universal Declaration of Human Rights. Upholding the rights of people with albinism would ensure that they were treated fairly and with respect.
The African Court on Human and Peoples’ Rights found that, although some steps have been taken in the right direction, Tanzania has violated the right to life of persons with albinism by not protecting them as required under Article 4 of the African Charter. It also found the state violated the right to non-discrimination by failing to put enough measures in place to fight myths and stereotypes relating to albinism.
What does the Tanzanian government need to do?
The court determined that superstitions and harmful beliefs had led to discrimination and the targeted killings of persons with albinism. It ordered the government to make provision for nationwide awareness campaigns for at least two years to combat myths and superstitions about albinism.
The court requires the Tanzanian government to amend the 1928 Witchcraft Act to criminalise attacks against persons with albinism. This is in response to UN Resolution 47/8 on the elimination of harmful practices related to accusations of witchcraft and ritual attacks.
The government of Tanzania is also ordered to implement its national action plan on the protection of persons with albinism. The national action plan should address stigma and structural issues that lead to discrimination.
The government must also ensure the right to health protection. This includes access to skin and eye health services. Providing protective clothing and sunscreens can be lifesaving.
Meeting the needs of children with albinism in educational settings must be a priority for the Tanzanian government. This can mean minor adaptions to classroom layouts and access to visual aids. Most importantly, it requires a change in attitudes among teaching staff and other pupils.
Tanzania has also been ordered to establish a compensation fund and compensate persons with albinism who have been victims of violent attacks.
What power does the court have to ensure enforcement?
The African Court on Human and Peoples’ Rights has instructed Tanzania to publish the judgment on government websites within three months. It should remain accessible for at least a year.
The government must also submit a report on the implementation of the ruling within two years. If it hasn’t fully complied within three years, a hearing will be held. However, the court has a non-compliance crisis and there are no built-in consequences in its protocol.
The partners involved in bringing the case will monitor Tanzania’s compliance with the court’s orders.
The Institute for Human Rights and Development in Africa has called on civil society organisations, policymakers and human rights defenders to support efforts to protect the rights of people with albinism in Tanzania and beyond.
TOURISM & ENVIRONMENTAL CONSERVATION
by James L.Laizer
Tanzania Establishes Task Force to Enhance Carbon Trading Framework.
The Government of Tanzania has taken a major step toward advancing its climate and economic goals by launching a National Advisory Committee on Carbon Trading. The 20-member body was officially inaugurated on April 10, 2025, in Dodoma by the Minister of State in the Vice President’s Office for Union Affairs and Environment, Mr. Hamad Masauni. Comprising representatives from government ministries, public institutions, civil society, and the private sector, the committee has been given a one-month mandate to assess the current carbon trading landscape, identify challenges, and propose actionable recommendations. Its overarching goal is to enhance Tanzania’s participation in global carbon markets and ensure the country reaps substantial and equitable financial benefits.
Mr. Masauni emphasized that the committee will examine the full carbon trading value chain—from registration and measurement to transactions and agreements. He stressed the importance of improving transparency, accountability, and efficiency across the system. The committee is also expected to explore how key national infrastructure projects—such as the Julius Nyerere Hydropower Project (JNHPP), the Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system, and the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR)—can leverage carbon trading opportunities to support environmental and financial sustainability. Additionally, the minister called for the development of a strong monitoring and evaluation framework to ensure that carbon projects deliver measurable outcomes aligned with Tanzania’s climate commitments and development goals.
Deputy Minister Khamis Hamza Khamis highlighted the need to educate the public about carbon trading to foster wider participation and local ownership. Meanwhile, Permanent Secretary Cyprian Luhemeja underscored that carbon trading presents a significant opportunity for Tanzania to benefit from climate finance, support social services, and stimulate green economic growth. With this strategic move, Tanzania positions itself to become a competitive player in the global carbon market, aligning environmental stewardship with national development. The committee’s work is expected to lay a strong foundation for a well-regulated, transparent, and inclusive carbon trading system that contributes meaningfully to the country’s long-term prosperity.
Restoring Tanzania: A Green Leap Toward Forest Revival and Climate Resilience
Tanzania is advancing a bold and visionary environmental initiative through the Sustainable Environmental Restoration and Biodiversity Conservation Project, aiming to restore 5.2 million hectares of degraded forests and landscapes. This effort is part of “The Restoration Initiative (TRI),” a global programme involving ten countries, including Kenya, China, Pakistan, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Backed by a USD$11.2 million grant from the Global Environment Facility (GEF), the project is coordinated by the Vice President’s Office in collaboration with the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), and seven district councils. Its core objectives include restoring degraded ecosystems in the Great Ruaha and Lake Rukwa Basins and reducing carbon emissions by an estimated 4.7 million tonnes by 2025 through the rehabilitation of 110,000 hectares of land. Project coordinator Dr. Damas Mapunda underscored the critical role of cross-sector collaboration, particularly with the private sector. However, private-sector involvement has remained modest due to limited awareness, few financial incentives, and a lack of scalable, bankable restoration models.
To encourage private sector engagement, the Restoration Factory Programme—jointly implemented by Bridge for Billions and Anza Entrepreneurs—is equipping green entrepreneurs with the tools to create sustainable and profitable ventures. To date, 46 entrepreneurs have enrolled, with 31 successfully graduating, supported by 14 trained mentors. Innovative ventures are already emerging. Ms. Annet Mutembei of Nishati Eco is producing alternative charcoal from agricultural waste, helping to combat deforestation and reduce health risks for women. Meanwhile, Mr. Deogratius Kapalata of KPLT Co. Ltd is repurposing coconut husks into clean briquettes and oil, tackling both energy and public health issues. Tanzania’s environmental restoration drive signals more than a policy shift—it is a transformative national movement. By blending innovation, entrepreneurship, and ecosystem recovery, the country is hopefully laying the foundation for a greener, more resilient, and economically inclusive future.
President Samia Launches Independent Commissions to Resolve Ngorongoro Land and Relocation Disputes
President Samia Suluhu Hassan has officially inaugurated two independent commissions aimed at resolving long-standing land disputes and evaluating the voluntary relocation of residents from the Ngorongoro Conservation Area. This action is expected to underscore the government’s commitment to finding sustainable and inclusive solutions that balance conservation efforts with community needs. Ngorongoro, a UNESCO World Heritage Site, has for decades been home to both wildlife and the indigenous Maasai pastoralists. However, growing human and livestock populations have raised ecological concerns. The number of residents has surged from 8,000 in 1959 to over 100,000 in 2021, while livestock numbers have grown from 260,000 in 2017 to more than one million. These increases have strained the ecosystem, creating conflicts between conservation policies and traditional livelihoods.
Historically, Tanzania has permitted indigenous communities to reside within certain protected areas. Yet tensions have grown due to reported land encroachments, restricted access to services, and allegations that basic provisions, such as food supplies, have been cut off to pressure communities into leaving. Speaking at the launch event on February 20, 2025, at the State House in Dar es Salaam, President Samia urged the commissions to approach the task with professionalism and objectivity. “I trust you will come up with lasting solutions on the issue, considering the national interest first,” she said.
The first commission, chaired by Justice Gerald Ndika, will investigate land dispute claims. The second, led by Mr. Musa Iyombe, will assess the voluntary relocation process. Both commissions are expected to include local community representatives to ensure inclusive dialogue and transparency. Their mandate is to deliver findings and recommendations within three months. This initiative follows President Samia’s pledge in Arusha on December 1, 2024, after engaging directly with Ngorongoro leaders and residents. By establishing these commissions, the government is aiming to demonstrate a proactive and people-centred approach to conflict resolution, though this may not be an easy task. If handled effectively, this process could serve as a blueprint for addressing similar challenges across Tanzania— preserving biodiversity while safeguarding the rights and dignity of indigenous communities.
ECONOMICS
by Dr Hildebrand Shayo
Tanzanian FY25/26 Budget Deficit To Widen On Heightened Spending Commitments
On March 11, 2025, Tanzania’s finance minister presented the Budget Framework and Expenditure Ceiling for the 2025/2026 fiscal year (the financial year running from July to June) ahead of the final budget, which will be read in June 2025.
The FY24/25 budget deficit is projected to range from 3.2% to 2.8%, reflecting the outcomes from the first half of the fiscal year. In light of the FY25/26 budget framework and considering expenditure forecasts, revenues are also expected to perform relatively well. However, a close analysis of the prediction for a 3.0% deficit in FY25/26, based on the Bank of Tanzania reports and the Ministry of Finance, indicates some fiscal slippage amid increased spending commitments in the near term.
From an economic perspective, in addition to previous budget-related announcements, the anticipated 2025 elections will be a significant line item in expenditures, along with preparations for the Africa Cup of Nations 2027 tournament. This will involve increased spending to address funding cuts by the US Agency for International Development (USAID) and higher security allocations for preparedness, likely reflecting the escalating conflict in the DRC and preparation for the October 2025 general election. This situation aligns with the government’s announcement that no new infrastructure projects will be initiated, as the focus shifts to completing the 9,711 projects currently underway while also seeking efforts to boost private sector funding.
Amid this background, Tanzania’s current account deficit might narrow from an estimated 2.6% of GDP in 2024 to 2.4% in 2025, supported by a strong outlook for exports of goods and services. In 2026, based on numbers analysis, the current account deficit could narrow further to 2.2% as continued import-substitution efforts, lower energy prices, and slower construction activity will help to narrow the trade deficit.
Given that Tanzania isn’t an island, heightened policy uncertainty and increased US protectionism and tariffs could pose significant risks for the country. Trade shocks to Mainland China from rising US tariffs and a stronger US dollar could reduce demand for Tanzanian goods and raise import costs.
Tanzania’s current account deficit is predicted to decrease from an estimated 2.6% of GDP in 2024 to 2.4% in 2025, which is in agreement with the central bank’s forecasts, according to a detailed examination of data from BOT and the Budget Framework and Expenditure Ceiling for the 2025/2026 fiscal year announcement. Data shows that the 3.2% prediction for 2025 considers the impact on agribusiness and betterthan-expected 2024 results. According to data from the Bureau of Statistics, Tanzania’s export prospects will be positively impacted by the government’s incentives to increase production and self-sufficiency.
Strong export growth will reduce the trade deficit from an estimated 6.5% of GDP in 2024 to 5.6% in 2025. Compared to data from previous years, goods exports are expected to increase by 10.0% to USD 10.1 billion in 2025, driven by high metal and mineral prices, as well as regulatory improvements that will continue to encourage investment in Tanzania’s mining sector. Gold production is projected to rise by 2.3% and is expected to account for 42.0% of Tanzanian exports in 2023. Meanwhile, the Kabanga nickel and cobalt projects that are expected to be operational will help Tanzania diversify its metals and minerals export portfolio.
On the agricultural side, government efforts to reduce reliance on imports through subsidizing agricultural inputs, providing better storage and transport infrastructure, and building new processing facilities will help bolster the volume and value of Tanzania’s agricultural exports, including cereals, sugar, cashews, tobacco, and coffee. This will decrease the demand for agricultural imports, which accounted for 5.1% of imports in 2023.
Import substitution efforts and lower energy prices will reduce the country’s import bill in 2025. Analysis of the numbers suggests that import growth will slow from an estimated 4.3% in 2024 to 4.0% in 2025, with imports totalling around USD 14.9 billion. Given the assumption that the price of Brent crude will average USD 76.0 per barrel in 2025, a 2.8% decrease from USD 79.9 per barrel in 2024, this is good news for business.
Records show that oil accounted for 21.6% of Tanzania’s goods imports in 2023, and considering the import substitution efforts, as the government seeks to reduce domestic dollar demand, this will also help to lower import demand. Although no new major strategic project exists, a strong infrastructure pipeline will accelerate real construction industry growth to 10.1% in 2025, which could keep the trade balance in deficit.
Despite slowing growth in the tourism sector, transport service activity will continue to pick up, keeping the services balance in surplus at 5.5% of GDP. The historical data shows that Tanzania’s tourist arrival growth will slow from 57.0% in 2024 to 6.1% in 2025.
That said, to ensure that Tanzania maintains the momentum of the growth of its economy, there are indications that the Tanzanian authorities will continue to develop port infrastructure as the country aims to become a regional hub for landlocked East and Southern African markets such as Rwanda, Burundi, and Zambia.
On February 25, 2025, the US Donald Trump administration announced that it would eliminate over 90% of USAID’s foreign aid contracts and cut USD 60 billion in global assistance. Available data indicate that USAID inflows accounted for 56.7% of Tanzania’s secondary transfers in 2023. Unquestionably, according to an analysis of numbers, these secondary inflows will decline by at least 60.0% in 2025 to USD 271.0 mn.
Towards 2026, there are all indications the current account deficit will narrow to 2.2%. However, export growth will slow due to lower gold prices, decreased mining production, and a less optimistic agricultural outlook, which are forecasting a decline in import demand and costs. Ongoing import-substitution efforts will reduce energy prices, and slower construction activity will narrow the trade deficit to 5.3% of GDP.
Under President Samia Suluhu Hassan’s leadership over the past four years, Tanzania is increasingly attracting investment from international companies, particularly in the mining sector. Inflows from global financial institutions will also remain robust.
In December 2024, the IMF completed the fourth review of Tanzania’s Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement, disbursing USD 148.6 million; during the previous review, the IMF also approved a six-month extension of the ECF until May 2026. Additionally, import-substitution efforts and the ban on using foreign currencies for business transactions (starting on July 1) should help reduce the reserve drawdown. Due to this measure, reserves are expected to remain around the 4.0-month import cover mark over the next two years, increasing from USD 5.8 bn by end-2025 to USD 6.0 bn by December 2026.
Though the US is not a major trade partner of Tanzania, it is essential to note that it is vulnerable to trade shocks from Mainland China and other trade partners due to rising US tariffs. Increased trade tariff wars and slower Chinese growth could diminish demand for Tanzanian goods. Likewise, intensified US protectionism would bolster the US dollar, raising the cost of imports.
However, increasing tax payments and vigorous economic activity will accelerate revenue growth to 13.9% year-on-year, reaching 16.0% of GDP in FY24/25. This is broadly in line with the estimated growth of 13.6% in FY23/24. This implies that with reforms to improve tax issues, efforts will continue to focus on improving tax payment, particularly indirect taxes such as value-added and pay-as-you-earn taxes, which increasingly benefit from digital payment infrastructure.
Many readers will recall that this concern was highlighted in the June FY24/25 budget speech, which noted that businesses and institutions have been collecting taxes but failing to remit them as required by tax laws. Therefore, the projected faster real GDP growth, expected to rise from 5.5% in 2024 to 5.7% in 2025, will, in my view, further enhance revenue receipts.
ENERGY & MINERALS
by Ben Taylor
Images from the “National Clean Cooking Strategy (2024-2034)” publication showing cooking on electric and gas as a cleaner alternative to charcoal.
Images from the “National Clean Cooking Strategy (2024-2034)” publication showing cooking on electric and gas as a cleaner alternative to charcoal.
Africa Energy Summit 2025
The Africa Energy Summit, held in January 2025 in Dar es Salaam, marked a pivotal moment for African energy policy and regional cooperation. Hosted by the Government of Tanzania, together with the African Union, the African Development Bank (AfDB), and the World Bank, the summit reportedly convened over 25 African Heads of State, 1,000 delegates, and global partners to address the continent’s energy crisis. Nearly 600 million people across the continent lack reliable electricity according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). The event was themed around the “Mission 300 initiative” – an aim to connect 300 million Africans to electricity by 2030.
The summit reinforced Tanzania’s growing stature as a regional leader in East Africa’s energy landscape. President Samia Suluhu Hassan’s hosting of the event signalled Tanzania’s commitment to spearheading energy transformation, bolstered by the near-completion of the Julius Nyerere Hydropower Project (JNHPP), which has added 2,115 megawatts to the national grid (see below). The summit’s attendance was impressive, including heads of state from Nigeria, Kenya, Zambia and others, as well as key figures like UN Deputy Secretary-General Amina Mohammed, World Bank President Ajay Banga, and African Development Bank President Dr. Akinwumi Adesina. This has been reported as representing a unified African push for energy access, fostering pan-African solidarity.
The summit’s main outcomes included the Dar es Salaam Energy Declaration and the unveiling of National Energy Compacts by 12 countries, including Tanzania, Nigeria, and Senegal. The Declaration outlined actionable reforms including:
Commitment to Universal Energy Access: The Declaration prioritises providing reliable and affordable electricity to 300 million Africans by 2030, aligning with Sustainable Development Goal 7 and the African Union’s Agenda 2063. It emphasises inclusive access, particularly for rural and underserved communities.
Promotion of Renewable Energy: It underscores a shift toward renewable energy sources—such as solar, hydroelectric, and geothermal—to reduce reliance on fossil fuels like firewood and charcoal. This focus supports climate resilience and aligns with the Paris Agreement, aiming to integrate clean energy solutions into national grids and promote sustainable development.
Support for National Energy Compacts: The Declaration endorses country-specific National Energy Compacts from 12 nations (including Tanzania, Nigeria, and Zambia), which outline tailored plans to expand electrification, reform energy sectors, and enhance regional grid integration through initiatives like the East African Power Pool.
Mobilization of Financial Resources: It secures over $40 billion in pledges from the African Development Bank, World Bank, and other partners, alongside a $5 billion Mission 300 Guarantee Facility to de-risk private sector investments, fostering public-private partnerships to scale up energy infrastructure.
Advancement of Clean Cooking Solutions: The Declaration commits to expanding access to clean cooking technologies, such as natural gas and improved cookstoves, to reduce health risks from traditional biomass use and support environmental sustainability across African households.
Tanzania’s national compact set ambitious targets: electrifying 8.3 million households and 64,359 villages by 2030, raising the national electrification rate from 46% to 75%, and expanding cross-border electricity trade through the East African Power Pool.
The summit’s success lies in its political will and financial commitments, but its diplomatic test will be sustaining global partnerships while navigating Africa’s debt burdens. By prioritising African-led solutions and climate-resilient infrastructure, the event positions the continent as a proactive player in the global energy transition, potentially redefining its role from resource-rich-but-cash-poor to an aspiring clean energy powerhouse.
Stiegler’s Gorge Dam reaches full turbine capacity
A significant milestone has been achieved at the Julius Nyerere Hydropower Project (JNHPP), located at Stiegler’s Gorge on the Rufuji river, as all nine turbines are now fully operational, according to the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Energy, Dr Doto Biteko. They are collectively generating 2,115MW.
“It is a great joy that all the machines are operational and generating power. The dream of harnessing electricity from this dam has come true, and power is now available,” said Dr Biteko. He added that arrangements are afoot to invite President Samia Suluhu Hassan for the official project inauguration. Further, Egypt has confirmed its head of state will attend the inauguration, with the event schedule being finalised.
With the nation’s power production capacity increased, the government is in final discussions with Zambia to begin exporting electricity. A transmission line is currently under construction, with Zambia also building its section, paving the way for energy trade between the two nations.
A $320 million project to connect Zambia and Tanzania’s power supplies is being financed largely by the World Bank, with support from the European Union and the UK.
Dr Biteko added that the government is also focusing on expanding electricity transmission infrastructure within the country so as to benefit more people.
Tanzania issues helium mining licence
Tanzania has made a significant step towards helium production, with the issuance of the country’s first-ever helium mining licence to Helium One Global. The licence was granted for the company’s Rukwa Helium Project, which spans 480 square kilometres across the Momba and Sumbawanga districts in southern Tanzania’s Rukwa region.
In September 2024, Helium One Global had announced significant progress in its southern Rukwa operations and submitted a comprehensive Mining Licence (ML) application for its helium project. This was supported by an in-depth feasibility study, including subsurface modelling and a detailed commercial development plan.
The global helium sector is critical to industries like healthcare, electronics, and aerospace, driven by helium’s unique properties as a non-reactive, low-density gas essential for MRI scanners, semiconductor manufacturing, and scientific research. Global demand is rising, with the market projected to grow from $2.7 billion in 2022 to over $4 billion by 2030, fuelled by technological advancements and limited supply. Major producers like the United States, Qatar, and Russia dominate, but supply constraints and geopolitical tensions have spurred exploration in new regions like Tanzania.
The Rukwa Basin holds the world’s largest known primary helium deposit (138 billion cubic feet), positioning the country as a potential game-changer. Companies like Helium One Global and Noble Helium are leveraging advanced exploration techniques to tap these reserves, aiming to diversify the global supply chain amid increasing prices and demand.
The announcement of Tanzania’s first helium mining licence has had an immediate impact on Helium One Global’s market performance. The company, which is listed on the London Stock Exchange, saw its stock price rise by 17% following the news.
Helium One Global’s CEO, Lorna Blaisse, expressed her enthusiasm about the development, emphasizing the strategic significance of Tanzania’s helium reserves.
“This marks a milestone for both the Company and Tanzania, as it is the first mining license to be offered for helium in the country and of such a significant size,” she said. “We very much look forward to progressing the project in Tanzania through to production, as well as remaining opportunistic on further opportunities in-country and elsewhere.” Assistant Commissioner Francis Mihayo from Tanzania’s Ministry of Minerals remarked, “The positive results from the Helium One Global’s exploration deepen hope for helium presence in Tanzania.”
HEALTH
by Ben Taylor
Coping with USAID cuts?
Tanzania is grappling with significant challenges following the abrupt cuts to USAID funding in early 2025, particularly impacting the 1.6 million Tanzanians reliant on antiretroviral (ARV) medications for HIV management. The U.S. President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), which provided USD $450 million annually, was a cornerstone of Tanzania’s HIV response, funding ARVs, testing, community outreach, and healthcare workers. The funding freeze has disrupted this lifeline, threatening lives and reversing decades of progress.
Widespread fear of ARV shortages has led to hoarding and some patients dropping out of care, exacerbating risks of treatment failure and resistance.
On January 20, 2025, an executive order from the Trump administration imposed a 90-day pause on all US foreign assistance, including PEPFAR, for a review of programmatic efficiencies. This was followed by a stop-work order on January 24, halting existing grants and contracts, effectively freezing PEPFAR operations. USAID, the primary implementer of PEPFAR, faced severe cuts, with over 80% of its programs cancelled by February 2025.
Ten days later, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio granted a limited humanitarian waiver allowing PEPFAR to resume “life-saving HIV services,” specifically HIV treatment and care, prevention of motherto-child transmission (PMTCT), pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for pregnant and breastfeeding women, and HIV testing.
Despite the waiver, many PEPFAR contracts, particularly those managed by USAID, remain terminated or scaled back. Programmes in Tanzania providing HIV treatment to hundreds of thousands, including children, were shuttered. Payments for some intact contracts, such as those for HIV drug supply, are not flowing, keeping services effectively frozen. The Trump administration’s move to dissolve USAID and integrate its functions into the State Department as well as reductions at the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), which handles 37% of PEPFAR funding, add additional strain.
In Tanzania, the USAID cuts have strained ARV supply chains, with reports of patients being told that free ARVs are no longer available, forcing them to purchase costly. Current ARV stocks are expected to last until the end of 2025, but the 2026 forecast is uncertain, risking stockouts. The loss of funding has led to clinic closures, job losses for healthcare workers and disruptions in testing services, reducing access to care. Community-based services, including counselling and home delivery, have been hit hard, increasing risks of treatment interruptions, drug resistance, and HIV transmission.
The Tanzanian government, through the Ministry of Health and the Tanzania Commission for AIDS (TACAIDS), has pledged to reallocate budget funds to maintain ARV supplies, with the Medical Stores Department (MSD) assuring availability to quell public fears. A webbased Care and Treatment Centre (CTC) database, integrated with DHIS-2, is being launched to mitigate the loss of USAID-funded data clerks, enabling healthcare workers to manage records directly.
Meanwhile, the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria is exploring reinvesting savings from its HIV grant to secure ARV commodities, while UNAIDS and WHO are engaging TACAIDS to assess impacts and explore fundraising. Civil society is advocating for expanded Global Fund implementation to bridge gaps.
The annual cost of ARVs for 1.6 million people in Tanzania is estimated at TSh 5.7 trillion (~£1.6bn), far exceeding the Ministry of Health’s 2024/25 budget of TSh 1.3 trillion, making it impossible to fully cover without external aid. Experts warn of 30,000 additional HIV-related deaths in two years if the crisis persists, along with risks of increased infections due to interrupted prevention programmes.
Tanzania is exploring alternative donors and private-sector partnerships, though these are unlikely to match PEPFAR’s scale. The government’s commitment to absorb healthcare workers and enhance digital systems shows proactive steps, but the scale of the crisis demands urgent international support to prevent a public health catastrophe.
Beyond HIV/AIDS, USAID’s support for maternal, newborn, and child health, including antenatal care and vaccinations, has been cut, with crucial elements of ante-natal care programmes unbudgeted in national plans. This risks increased maternal and neonatal mortality, especially in rural areas.
The termination of USAID-backed malaria prevention (e.g., insecticide-treated bed nets) and TB programs threatens a resurgence of these diseases. The loss of logistics for TB sample transport and vaccine storage security has paralysed diagnostic and treatment efforts.
It has been reported that around 5,000 healthcare workers, many in HIV and malaria programmes, have lost their jobs, particularly in rural clinics.
Over 60 NGOs, particularly those supporting agriculture and health, face collapse due to USAID’s funding halt. Health-focused NGOs like ICAP have shut down, leaving thousands of medical professionals jobless and disrupting community-based services like counselling and ARV home delivery. Amref Health Africa, a major NGO, lost 20% of its budget. Smaller NGOs, reliant on USAID for HIV and TB programs, face immediate financial crises, with many unable to secure alternative funding quickly.
The Africa CDC (a public health agency of the African Union) has stepped in with $2 million for Tanzania’s Marburg outbreak response, but its $1 billion annual budget target is insufficient to fill USAID’s void across health programs.
“The disruptions to HIV programs could undo 20 years of progress,” WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said at a press conference. He added that this could lead to over 10 million additional HIV cases across Africa and three million HIV-related deaths. He said that the US government has “a responsibility to ensure that if it withdraws direct funding for countries, it’s done in an orderly and humane way that allows them to find alternative sources of funding.”
The US’s plans to exit the WHO have also forced the UN agency, which typically receives about a fifth of its overall annual funding from the US, to freeze hiring and initiate budget cuts.
It is no exaggeration to say that Tanzania’s health sector is in crisis due to USAID cuts, with HIV/AIDS programmes, maternal health, and TB/malaria efforts facing severe disruptions. NGOs are collapsing, healthcare workers are unemployed, and patients are struggling to access ARVs and services. The government’s mitigation efforts and support from the Global Fund and Africa CDC are insufficient to bridge the funding gap. Without rapid intervention, Tanzania risks a public health catastrophe, with millions facing life-threatening consequences.
Tanzania declares end to Marburg Virus outbreak
The government on March 13, 2025 formally declared the end of the outbreak of the Marburg Virus after 42 days of monitoring with no new cases reported.
The outbreak of Marburg virus was declared on January 20 this year by President Samia Suluhu Hassan after two cases were confirmed in Biharamulo District, in the Kagera Region, which borders Uganda to the north, Rwanda to the west and Burundi to the southwest. Both patients lost their lives while on treatment.
The last confirmed MVD case was reported on January 28, 2025. This second case (which occurred after the previous issue (No.140) of Tanzanian Affairs went to press), came after both President Samia and the World Health Organisation celebrated Tanzania’s swift actions to contain the outbreak and limit the number of infections to a single case.
This is the second outbreak of Marburg virus, with the first having occurred in 2023.
“Since the declaration of the outbreak the government in collaboration with stakeholders and partners jointly took stringent measures to contain and control the outbreak,” said Minister for Health, Jenista Mhagama.
She urged the public to remain vigilant and continue observing all recommended measures and adopt positive behaviours including hand washing using running water, soap or hand sanitizer and timely report all rumours and unusual events in the community using toll-free hotline number 199 or nearby health facility.
“We should also be aware that the country remains at risk of other highly infectious diseases, including Ebola which has been reported in neighbouring countries and Mpox which has recently been declared in our country and continues to be reported worldwide,” Ms Mhagama said.
In a similar statement the World Health Organisation said it worked closely with Tanzanian health authorities to rapidly scale up key measures such as disease surveillance and trained more than 1000 frontline health workers in contact tracing, clinical care and public health risk communication to contain the second outbreak of MVD in Tanzania. “The Organisation also delivered over five tonnes of essential medical supplies and equipment,” WHO said in a statement.
Auditors criticise dependence on poorly-regulated traditional medicine
Criticism of traditional medicine came from an unusual source in April, with the presentation to Parliament of the annual Controller and Auditor General (CAG) report.
The audit report exposed significant public health risks due to unregulated traditional and alternative medicine practices. From 2020 to 2024, at least 16 deaths were linked to unsafe traditional remedies, with seven fatalities in 2023 alone in Simiyu and Lindi regions. The report highlights systemic weaknesses in oversight by the Ministry of Health and the President’s Office – Regional Administration and Local Government (PO-RALG). The Tanzania Traditional and Alternative Health Practice Council (TAHPC) lacks a system to track incidents, leaving many cases unreported and hindering effective response.
The audit revealed that only 12 of 21 practitioners visited in four Local Government Authorities (Dodoma, Arusha, Temeke, and Bariadi) were registered, with Temeke having 71% unregistered practitioners. Inadequate registration data, missing details like street or ward information, and an outdated Health Practitioners Registration System (HPRS) exacerbate enforcement challenges. Overburdened coordinators struggle to monitor remote areas, and the sector’s 2022/23–2027/28 strategic plan remains unapproved, stalling progress.
“The continued operation of unregistered practitioners and use of unsafe remedies not only poses serious health risks but also undermines public confidence in the traditional medicine sector,” the report cautions.
EDUCATION
by Ben Taylor
Student Loans system struggling under weight of non-repayment
The sustainability of Tanzania’s Higher Education Students Loans Board (HESLB) is at risk, with TSh 760 billion (~£210m) in outstanding loan repayments on the books, raising concerns about the future of higher education financing in the country.
Since the introduction of student loans at the start of the 1994/95 academic year, the government has disbursed TSh 7.2 trillion to 754,000 students. However, it has been reported that of the 448,824 eligible beneficiaries, only 226,292 are actively making repayments.
By the end of 2023, total collections reportedly stood at TSh 1.34 trillion, accounting for only 64% of the TSh 2.1 trillion in mature loans.
“We have intensified efforts to identify beneficiaries in employment and those operating in the informal economy,” said Dr Bill Kiwia, the HESLB executive director.
Non-compliance among informal sector beneficiaries, who evade repayment, remains a significant issue. Some employers fail to deduct and remit loan repayments promptly, while others submit incorrect deductions. And many graduates face irregular income, making consistent repayments difficult.
A lack of integration between HESLB and key national databases, such as the National Identification Authority (NIDA), further complicates the tracking of beneficiaries.
The government allocated TSh 743.3 billion for student loans in the 2023/24 financial year, up from TSh 570 billion in 2021/22, to meet the growing demand for financial assistance.
In February, the parliamentary committee recommended an increase in HESLB’s budget to ensure all eligible students receive loans.
HESLB, established under Act No. 9 of 2004 (amended in 2007, 2014, and 2016), is tasked with providing loans and grants to financially needy Tanzanian students in accredited higher education institutions. Its primary mandates include issuing loans, recovering loans to sustain a revolving fund, and fostering strategic partnerships to enhance financing. The revolving fund model is central to its financial health, aiming to recycle loan repayments to fund new loans.
Research by the Tanzania Institute of Education and University of Dar es Salaam indicates that while HESLB has increased enrolment, it has also widened social inequalities. Students from low-income backgrounds often face barriers due to stringent criteria, and inadequate funding channels fail to support all eligible candidates, impacting the Board’s mission and public perception.
NGOs call for an end to corporal punishment in schools
Following the tragic death of a Form Two student in Simiyu region, allegedly beaten and trampled by her teacher, several organisations have urged the government to abolish the 2002 education guidelines that permit corporal punishment. The NGOs also called for the development of alternative disciplinary guidelines aimed at promoting positive student behaviour.
The involved organisations include HakiElimu, Msichana Initiative, Save the Children, Childrens Dignity Forum, Shule Direct, Children in Crossfire, and the Tanzania Child Rights Forum (TCRF).
HakiElimu director Dr John Kalage expressed concern about the increasing number of incidents where children had died or suffered serious injury through corporal punishment issued by teachers. He urged the government to take action to end corporal punishment in schools.
He referred to research conducted by HakiElimu, which shows that in schools where teachers do not use corporal punishment, students feel safer.
Children in Crossfire programme manager, Ms Saraphina Lelo, emphasised that while abuse primarily occurs in schools, its impact extends throughout society.
“The child carries that trauma, and it becomes their way of life. This child will grow up to be a parent, and they might continue this kind of punishment with their children. Society will continue thinking that corporal punishment is the right way to discipline a child, while the reality is they are hurt,” she said.
In response, Education Commissioner Dr Lyabwene Mutahabwa told Mwananchi newspaper that while corporal punishment cannot be entirely abolished, the monitoring system has been strengthened to ensure it is applied in line with existing guidelines.
He explained that the guidelines state that corporal punishment should only be administered by the headteacher or principal and should not exceed three strokes.
“Claiming that corporal punishment will be completely abolished is not true; this may happen in the future, but what we are doing now is strengthening monitoring to ensure that this punishment is applied according to the guidelines,” said Dr Mutahabwa.
“Nothing is more important to us than the safety of the child. As a community, we must work together to report any abuse so that actions can be taken,” he said.