by Ben Taylor

President Samia officially nominated as CCM candidate for 2025 elections

The ruling CCM party has formally nominated President Samia Suluhu Hassan, the country’s current president, as the party’s presidential candidate in the elections scheduled for October 2025. She is currently serving out the term of President Magufuli, who won re-election in 2020 but died a few months later.

The party’s national congress passed a resolution on January 19th, endorsing President Samia Suluhu Hassan and President Hussein Ali Hassan Mwinyi as its official candidates for the Union and Zanzibar presidential elections, respectively. The resolution was unanimously approved by all delegates and followed pressure from the floor and a recommendation from former President Jakaya Mrisho Kikwete.

“If we want to decide today that Samia is our candidate and Mwinyi is our candidate, we have the authority to do so,” Mr Kikwete told the delegates, to much applause.

Turning to President Samia, who chaired the congress, Mr Kikwete remarked: “Madam Chairperson, I am not sure whether I have clarified matters or made them more confusing. But the people have spoken. If they want you to continue, who else will say no?”

He then proposed that the congress formalise the decision through a written resolution to avoid ambiguity, which was then done. At the same meeting, President Hassan nominated Dr Emmanuel Nchimbi as her running mate for the upcoming elections. His nomination came shortly after Vice President Dr Philip Mpango requested to step down.

“After receiving Vice President Mpango’s letter, I consulted our elders and shared my thoughts,” President Hassan said. “Together, we agreed on one name that embodies experience and capability. That name is Dr Emmanuel Nchimbi.”

Dr Nchimbi, currently CCM’s Secretary-General, is well-versed in navigating high-stakes government and party leadership. He has a long CV both within the party and in government, as a former chair of the party’s youth wing, UVCCM, and former Home Affairs Minister (2012­13) under President Kikwete, among many other positions. He spent much of the last decade outside the country, as Tanzania’s ambassador to Brazil (2016-21) and then Egypt (2022-23).

He was a prominent support of Edward Lowassa in his 2015 bid for the CCM presidential nomination, though he did not follow Mr Lowassa to Chadema when his candidacy was rebuffed by CCM. Indeed, he was later seen as an important figure in efforts to negotiate a rapprochement, and some analysts have suggested that his ability to reach all parts of the party was a key factor in his nomination.

“By choosing someone like Dr Nchimbi, the party is not just prioritising competence but also signalling that it values unity and inclusivity,” said political analyst Faraja Kristomus of the University of Dar es Salaam.

Reading the runes – and the room
This is the earliest that CCM has settled on a presidential candidate. Indeed, it is believed to be the first time that there has been no procedure for collecting and submitting presidential nomination forms. And while the calls for the various nominations were apparently driven by delegates to the meeting, there can be little doubt that this was a pre-planned move. Some analysts suggested the vice-president’s letter announcing his intention to step down was choreographed.

This suggests that President Samia has become more adept in navigating the intricate dynamics and factions within CCM, effectively cutting off any potential obstacles to her candidacy in the 2025 elections before such shoots were able to emerge. It may also indicate that senior figures in the party are keen to project an image of unity as they approach the 2025 elections. The contrast with the current situation at the main opposition party, Chadema, is stark – see article below.

Nevertheless, the manoeuvre is not without risks. It doesn’t exude confidence if you need to launch a surprise raid while your potential opponents are unprepared. More seriously, those with presidential ambitions within the party will have to wait for another five years, and some may decide that their prospects look brighter outside CCM. Or they may feel that their time would be better spent in the background, preparing for 2030 rather than lining up behind President Samia’s 2025 campaign.

“Today we have finished the work. If there is someone who dreams of running for the presidency, forget it. Today is the end of the work. And if there is someone who had those dreams, maybe he should run for his mother’s party, but for the CCM, the work is done and completed,” said one delegate, Mr George Ruhoro, the MP for Ngara.

Those with dreams may also find that Dr Nchimbi now starts the race for the 2030 nomination in pole position. However, they will not give up hope, as the party’s practise on presidential nominations has generally been to recruit from those in mid-level ministerial experience rather than sitting vice-presidents or prime ministers.

Chadema power struggles
While the ruling party’s 2025 nominations process has concluded early, more than nine months ahead of the likely election date, the leading opposition party, Chadema, finds itself focussed on in-fighting. Specifically, the party’s previous presidential candidate, Tundu Lissu, is seeking to take over as party chair from the long-standing incumbent, Freeman Mbowe.

Supporters of Lissu argue that after 21 years under Mbowe’s stewardship without significant electoral success, Chadema needs fresh leadership. Meanwhile, Mbowe’s followers have accused Lissu of being divisive and breaching party confidentiality.

The accusations and counter-accusations from both camps, as well as the strong rhetoric employed by the candidates’ supporters, have only served to raise tensions and concerns. Observers worry that the process could deepen internal fractures, especially given the passionate support both candidates command.

Addressing Chadema’s National Executive Council in Dar es Salaam on January 20th, Mbowe urged members to remain steadfast in their commitment to the party’s mission.

“We have not come to Dar es Salaam to divide ourselves but to build and strengthen this party to fulfil the dreams of Tanzanians,” Mbowe said. He warned against succumbing to external forces seeking to destabilise Chadema and stressed that differences should strengthen rather than weaken the party.

“The whole world is watching. Our opponents are observing us, and our friends are waiting in anticipation. Let us demonstrate that Chadema is united and part of God’s plan,” he added.

Nevertheless, Mr Mbowe’s campaign took a heavy blow the same day when one of the party’s most prominent former MPs, Godbless Lema, previously an Mbowe-loyalist, declared his support for Tundu Lissu.

Lissu is well-known for his strong anti-corruption stance both within and outside the party. This endears him to the public, which is tired of corruption and other forms of malpractice in the running of public institutions. His clear commitment to transparency and accountability further strengthens his appeal as a leader capable of driving meaningful change.

In contrast, Mbowe has often appeared to struggle with the contrast between his demands for transparency and accountability from government on the one hand and his own domineering approach to party leadership on the other, though he has recently taken some steps to address internal governance issues under his leadership. STOP PRESS: After writing the above, on January 22nd, Tundu Lissu was elected as chair of Chadema. Mr Mbowe conceded defeat, writing on X: “I fully accept the decision of the General Assembly election of our party, Chadema. … I congratulate Hon. Tundu Lissu and his team for being entrusted with the party’s leadership. I wish them all the best as they move the party forward.”

Opposition, the media and activists face pressure
In October 2024, three of Tanzania’s leading newspapers – The Citizen, Mwananchi and Mwanaspoti – had their website licenses suspended by the government after publishing an animated video deemed to overstep the line in its criticism of President Samia Suluhu Hassan.

The three papers – all part of the same media house – were banned from publishing anything on their websites, on YouTube or social media for 30 days. The Tanzania Communications Regulatory Authority (TCRA) said the video violated the Electronic and Postal Communications (Online Content) Regulations of 2020. Specifically, the regulator said the content “threatens and is likely to affect and harm national unity and social peace of the United Republic of Tanzania”.
The animated video depicted a female character who resembled the President with her signature hijab. It showed the character switching between different TV stations. On each one there was someone complaining about the killing, abduction or disappearance of a family member. At the end, the character appears upset by all the complaints.
Mpoki Thomson, The Citizen’s managing editor, said the animation depicted “events that raised concerns regarding the safety and security of individuals in Tanzania”.

A (possibly political?) murder, and a presidential response
As reported previously (see TA139), the issue raised in the video – that of disappearances of activists and opposition leaders – is genuine. Indeed, it was particularly pertinent at the time of the video’s publication, coming as it did, shortly after the brutal killing of a senior member of the main opposition party Chadema, Ali Kibao.

Mr Kibao, 69, was a retired military intelligence officer and had joined Chadema in 2008. He was forced off a bus by suspected security agents while travelling from Dar es Salaam to his hometown Tanga in early September, 2024. The post-mortem found that Mr Kibao had been “severely beaten and had acid poured on his face”, party chairman Freeman Mbowe told the AFP news agency.

Hundreds turned out for Mr Kibao’s funeral in Tanga, where people interrupted Home Affairs Minister Hamad Masauni as he tried to address the mourners. “Where is the government? People are being abducted and there’s no action,” they said. “Resign, resign, resign,” they shouted at the minister.

Mr Mbowe, who was also at the funeral, intervened, urging the crowd to allow the minister to complete his speech.

The US Embassy in Tanzania voiced their support for an “independent, transparent, and prompt investigation” into the killing of Mr Kibao. “Murder and disappearances, as well as last month’s detentions, beatings, efforts to disenfranchise citizens ahead of elections, should have no place in a democracy”.

The President herself addressed such criticism angrily in a speech in mid-September, at which she took several swipes at foreign government interference in internal matters, and contrasted the reaction to this particular murder with the lack of media and diplomatic attention for other recent acts of violence. Her speech is worth quoting at length:

“It is surprising that the death of our brother Kibao has stirred up such a huge outcry of condemnation, grief, and accusations of calling the government murderers. This is not right. Any death is just death. What we Tanzanians must do is stand together and condemn these acts, to stand firm against such behaviour. The blood of a Tanzanian should weigh on us; we should not shed blood without cause.”

“When others wish to show their compassion, we urge them to do so by adhering to the agreements of international diplomatic relations as outlined in the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations of 1961. … I believe that the statement made is not the directive of the heads of state from where they came.”

“The government has worked very hard to restore the freedom of political parties, the freedom of the media, and the freedom of citizens in general. Those who were in exile returned to the country; … those who had criminal cases we turned a blind eye to; those who were in prison, we released them. Now they are free and are continuing with their activities, including political activities. Our goal was to bring people together to build our country.” “Now, when those same people forget all this and engage in actions or statements that harm or set us back, we will not be willing to allow it, we will not allow it. We will protect the peace and stability of our country at any cost. Just as other countries protect theirs, we Tanzanians will protect our country at any cost.”

“I will show no leniency toward anyone who seeks to disrupt the peace of our nation,” she concluded. “We have been tolerant on many issues, but when it comes to protecting this nation’s peace, I will show no leniency to anyone involved in such matters, whether they are coordinating, participating in, or executing these evil plans.”

And another abduction

Maria Sarungi speaks at a press conference in Nairobi on 13th January, the day after the abduction.

More recently, in early January, prominent freedom of speech advocate and government critic, Maria Sarungi, was abducted in Nairobi. She later told a press briefing that she had been manhandled, choked and shouted at by four unknown assailants who forced her into a vehicle in Kenya’s capital. The activist said she was freed several hours later and left on a “rough road, in a dark place”.

“I am sure that the reason for abduction was to get access to my social media and [because of] the whistleblowing job that I do,” she said, as her abductors kept asking how to unlock her phone.

Ms Sarungi is a staunch critic of Tanzania’s President Samia Suluhu Hassan, and has accused her government of “bringing tyranny back”. She fled to Kenya in 2020, seeking asylum after facing increasing threats, she, says, from the government of late President John Magufuli.

She blamed the Tanzanian government for what happened but said she thought the abductors were both Kenyan and Tanzanian. Officials from neither government have commented on the incident.

Change Tanzania, a movement founded by Ms Sarungi, said in a statement on X it believed she had been taken by Tanzanian security agents “operating beyond Tanzania borders to silence government legitimate criticism”. It added that her “courage in standing up for justice has made her a target”.

There is some history of abductions of foreign activists in Kenya. In 2024, Ugandan opposition leader, Kizza Besigye, was kidnapped in Nairobi, allegedly by Ugandan security officials, and taken across the border for trial by a court martial. The Ugandan government said Kenya helped them in the operation, but the Kenyan government denied this.

by Ben Taylor

What a second Trump presidency means for Tanzania
Much of the whole world waits in trepidation (as well as excitement for some) for the implications of Donald Trump’s second presidential term, and Tanzania is no exception. After all, during his first stint in the White House, he reportedly referred to some African nations as “shithole countries”.

In November, President Samia Suluhu Hassan was quick to congratulate President Trump on his election victory. She posted on Twitter: “On behalf of the Government and the people of the United Republic of Tanzania, I extend my heartfelt congratulations to His Excellency Donald Trump, President-elect of the United States of America on your election victory. Mr. President-elect, you have my best wishes.”

There are many possible global implications of a Trump presidency – not least for global security, the climate crisis and international trade and economics. However, here we will focus on the more direct implications for Tanzania.

First, among the many actions taken by the new president in his first days in office was one that will be felt almost immediately in Tanzania: the suspension of foreign development aid. This executive order was signed by Mr Trump on his first day in office, suspending aid for 90 days to allow for an evaluation of its effectiveness and alignment with his foreign policy. “All department and agency heads responsible for U.S. foreign development aid programmes are to immediately halt new activities and expenditures for development aid,” the order stated.

This includes assistance from the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and the U.S. President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), which has been instrumental in supporting various projects, including the provision of antiretroviral (ARV) drugs to combat HIV/AIDS.

During his first term from 2017 to 2021, President Trump proposed slashing nearly a third of the U.S. diplomacy and aid budgets, including significantly reducing funding for United Nations peacekeeping operations and international agencies. However, Congress at the time resisted Trump’s proposals.

Second, strict immigration rules may limit opportunities for skilled Tanzanians to visit, work, or study in the US, as well as the potential deportation of Tanzanians who are currently living there. Precise numbers of Tanzanians who might be affected are hard to come by. However, in 2023, the number of African migrants recorded at the US-Mexico border was 58,000, and according to the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA) there are thought to be over 70,000 Tanzanians currently residing in the US, with a wide variety of immigration statuses.

It remains unclear how concertedly the new president will carry out his pledges to deport migrants. Nevertheless, given that Tanzanians living in the US already play an outsized role in Tanzanian domestic politics – largely through their vocal social media output mainly in support of opposition parties – the prospect of many of this group returning to Tanzania could have an outsized impact on political discourse within Tanzania.

Third, President Trump’s policies when it comes to trade are likely to have some – though limited – impacts directly on Tanzania. In particular, the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which has enabled eligible African countries to export some of their produce to the US without paying taxes since 2000, is a source of concern for many countries. It is due to expire in 2025, and Mr Trump has previously stated that he will not renew. Further, he has announced his intention to introduce a universal 10% income tariff on all foreign-made goods.

However, Tanzanian producers have never taken much advantage of AGOA and exports from Tanzania to the US are low compared to many other countries in Africa.

by Ben Taylor

Growing concern over President Samia’s respect for democratic norms
After President Samia Suluhu Hassan took office in March 2021, there were signs that she intended to “re-open” the country, both politically and economically. Her predecessor, President John Magufuli, had restricted the activities of opposition parties, and anyone critical of his government, as well as applying a firmly nationalist approach to economics that discouraged investment.

“Tanzania is less sinister and less mad since she took over,” wrote The Economist earlier this year. Right from the start, however, questions were being asked as to how concerted President Samia’s new direction would be, particularly on politics. In part, this was because President Magufuli remained popular both with the public and with some powerful figures within the ruling party, CCM, and it was clear that any pro-democracy moves the new President introduced would meet with resistance – resistance that would also carry the temptation and/or promise of a relatively easy ride in forthcoming elections. Would the demands of holding the party together trump her supposed democratic instincts? And in part, it was because President Samia’s own position was not well known. She had spent over five years as a loyal Vice President to her predecessor, without ever marking out her own position on key questions. How committed was she, truly, to moving the country in a more democratic direction?

A number of recent events and trends have led to rising concern that her commitment is lukewarm at best. One pan-African publication described this as Tanzania’s moment of truth, where “the red flags are getting redder.” Another went with “Back to bulldozer politics”.

A planned celebration in Mbeya in August of International Youth Day by the opposition party, Chadema, was blocked by the police. More than 500 young Chadema supporters were arrested as they attempted to gather in defiance of the ban. Several senior Chadema leaders – including secretary general John Mnyika, national vice chair, Tundu Lissu and central committee member Joseph Mbilinyi – were detained for 48 hours and allegedly roughed up by the police, and party leader Freeman Mbowe was also arrested. Police Commissioner, Awadh Juma Haji justified their actions by saying the police would do everything in their power “to resist such glaring threats to public order”.

Further, in recent months, numerous opposition figures have reportedly disappeared. In July, regional police in Tanga confirmed that they were holding Kombo Mbwana, a Chadema district leader – some 30 days after he went missing. He had not been presented before court, despite appeals by his lawyers. Two other party leaders – Dioniz Kipanya from Rukwa and Deusdedith Soka from Dar es Salaam – have gone missing in the past few weeks, with no word from authorities. In August, the Tanganyika Law Society (TLS) released a list of 83 people who had recently disappeared recently under mysterious circumstances.

There have also been other grounds for concern, too. There was the heavy-handed response to criticism of the controversial DP World contract to manage the port of Dar es Salaam (see TA136 and 137).

There was a recent announcement by Zanzibar’s police commissioner Hamad Khamis Hamad that they would review political speeches with the aim of identifying utterances made against the state or aiming to incite hatred. And there has been the reappointment of former close allies of President Magufuli to influential positions – most obviously the controversial Paul Makonda who was recently made regional commissioner for Arusha, after three years in the wilderness. He recently called himself the “favourite son of President Samia,” surely a knowing reference to the persistent rumours that he could be the illegitimate son of President Magufuli.

Even the reforms that the President herself had been strongly associated – such as establishing dialogue with opposition parties and forming commissions for criminal justice reform, constitutional reform and the running of elections – have slowed or stalled, showing little sign of progress in the past year. Recommendations are gathering dust on shelves, while local elections are due before the end of this year, and presidential and parliamentary elections will be held in October 2025.

Those elections are, of course, a major part of the context in which all of this is taking place. There is still an outside chance that President Samia may face a challenger in becoming the CCM presidential candidate. Having risen to the presidency through the untimely death of the previous incumbent, rather than through an election, as well as being the country’s first female president, President Samia could be forgiven for feeling nervous at the prospect of not delivering a victory as clear as that of President Magufuli. Indeed, such was the extent of his win in the 2020 official election results, she cannot hope to match that outcome, whether or not the country returns to a more credible democratic electoral process.

A second factor, particularly in the most recent developments, is the recent “Gen Z” protests in Kenya. Across several weeks, widespread protests by young Kenyans, organised on social media, piled pressure on President William Ruto to reverse tax changes. A heavy response by state security forces, which killed dozens, failed to quell the unrest, and eventually, President Ruto fired his entire cabinet and was forced to halt planned tax hikes.

When announcing the ban on Chadema’s youth day rally in Mbeya, Commissioner Haji specifically cited a statement by one Chadema youth leader that called upon opposition supporters to be “inspired by
our colleagues in Kenya”.

At the time of writing, the jury is still out on whether President Samia is genuinely committed to democratic reforms but having to proceed slowly in order to bring her party with her, or her stated commitment was only ever a strategy to buy herself time as the country’s new leader. What is clear, however, is that observers both within and outside the
country are becoming less willing to give her the benefit of the doubt, and that their doubts are growing.

by Ben Taylor

Thousands of Maasai gather to protest against evictions and are addressed by Arusha Regional Commissioner, Paul Makonda – Photo – IWGIA

Maasai evictions – and protests – and concessions
On August 18, 2024, hundreds of Maasai community members gathered to protest the denial of basic rights and the loss of their ancestral land in Ngorongoro, Tanzania. The protest is the latest in a series of actions against a government relocation plan aimed at moving 110,000 Maasai from Ngorongoro to Msomera, Sauni, and Kitwai, over 300 kilometers from their current homes.

Dressed in their traditional red clothing and holding leaves – as a symbol of peace recognized across many Tanzanian tribes – the demonstrators blocked the busy Ngorongoro-Serengeti Road. They carried posters, prayed, and marched, singing in the Maasai language to voice their grievances.

The government argues the relocation is essential to preserve the Ngorongoro Conservation Area, a UNESCO World Heritage site. “Due to escalating human-wildlife conflicts, overpopulation of humans and livestock, wide-spreading zoonotic diseases, shrinking wildlife corridor and grazing land, lack of safe water sources and poor sanitation, and the quest for socio-economic development of its citizens, the consensus was reached through a participatory and transparent process for a voluntary relocation program,” said Mudrik Ramadhan Soraga, the Zanzibar minister for Tourism and Heritage, speaking to a meeting of the World Heritage Committee in July in New Dehli, India.

Officials further maintain the relocation is voluntary, but residents have described the exercise as an eviction, pointing to the cutting off of essential services such as water and health to make their case. “Conservation is a good thing, we are not against it. We are against … discriminatory conservation, implemented in a militaristic way,” Maasai lawyer Denis Oleshangay told reporters. However, he said, “they are trying to make life so hard that no one will stay.”

The government has offered to build new homes to encourage “voluntary relocation” for those who agree to move to Msomera, as well as cash payments to support the move. The government reported having spent TSh 286 billion on the relocation effort, and said in early September that this has resulted in 9,778 residents moving since July 2022.

The immediate trigger for the latest protest appeared to be concerns that residents had been stripped of their right to vote in Ngorongoro. On August 3, some Ngorongoro residents alleged that the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) had transferred the names of voters from Ngorongoro to Msomera, a place where only 2% of Ngorongoro residents have relocated.

“We are shocked and saddened that the entire Ngorongoro Division, which currently has a population of 110,000, will not be voting at usual polling stations,” said James Moringe Mollel, Councillor of Loitile Ward. “They claimed the relocation was voluntary, but for example, I have been assigned to a hamlet in Msomera as my polling station, a place I’ve never even visited.”

Further, an official plan contained in the Government Gazette published on August 2, 2024, involved delisting 11 wards, 25 villages and 96 sub villages in Ngorongoro.

Prof Issa Shivji, one of Tanzania leading legal scholars, responded in a social media post that the villages’ delisting will have far-reaching legal and democratic implications for the people of Ngorongoro, and urged authorities to rethink their plan.

The protest than began on August 18th continued uninterrupted for five days, despite heavy-handed policing. According to some reports, this included the arrest of 39 members of the Maasai community. A week later, according to these same reports, the locations where the arrested were being held had not been revealed, and no charges had been brought.

The international human rights group, Amnesty, issued a statement calling on the government “to immediately disclose the whereabouts of the 40 arrested community members, grant them access to their lawyers, and due process, including being promptly brought before court to challenge the legality of their detention.”

Five days into the protest, the minister of State in the Prime Minister’s Office responsible for Policy, Parliamentary Affairs and Coordination, William Lukuvi, addressed residents in Oloirobi Village, in Ngorongoro Ward. He was accompanied by the Minister of Constitutional and Legal Affairs, Prof Palamagamba Kabudi, Deputy Minister of Natural Resources and Tourism, Mr Danstan Kitandula, Arusha Regional Commissioner, Paul Makonda, and the Police Force’s Commissioner of Operations and Training, Awadh Juma Haji.

Mr Lukuvi said in his speech that he had been sent by President Samia Suluhu Hassan, and that he had been instructed to ensure health and education services must continue to be adequately delivered. “Education services must be fully provided, and hospital services must be fully available. I want Mr Makonda to ensure that in all areas where services have been suspended, they are restored so that residents do not face difficulties in accessing social services,” he stated.

Mr Lukuvi also said that President Hassan has directed that local government elections, scheduled for November, should be held in Ngorongoro, and preparations should proceed accordingly in the area as per existing boundaries. “The President has sent us to assure you that your rights to vote in the forthcoming elections remain intact. The director of Elections (from the Independent National Electoral Commission) will ensure all polling stations are set up to enable citizens to exercise their constitutional rights,” he said.

At the same meeting, Prof Kabudi affirmed that all Tanzanians are equal and assured the residents that they will receive the same rights and treatment as those in other regions.

Map showing Msomera relative to the Ngorongoro Conservation Area – data from openstreetmap.org

“Our country was founded by the Father of the Nation, Mwalimu Julius Nyerere, as one united nation built on love, peace, and unity. President Hassan upholds these principles and urges you to preserve peace and stability while safeguarding the nation. Let us embody the spirit of peace and love, just like all other Tanzanians,” he said.

In a separate development, the Arusha High Court has blocked implementation of the Government Notice that formally dissolved wards, villages, and hamlets, including those in the Ngorongoro District, until further court notice.

Thanking the government on behalf of the residents, Ngorongoro legislator Emmanuel Shangai said in the previous four years, residents have seen no leaders visiting the area, but today the President has sent them. “I urge you to trust the government because the President is for all Tanzanians. It is possible that some of her subordinates misled her, which is why these issues arose,” he said.

The government case
A series of articles in the (Tanzanian) Guardian newspaper presented the government case on the Ngorongoro issue, highlighting the legacy of a 1959 land use policy. Initially designed to accommodate human and wildlife populations, the policy aimed to harmonize their coexistence within the Ngorongoro Conservation Area (NCA).

The Maasai were allowed to graze their livestock within the conservation area, maintaining their cultural practices and livelihood. And in return, certain restrictions were imposed to ensure that wildlife habitats were preserved and that the ecological integrity of the region was not compromised. These restrictions included prohibiting permanent structures and agricultural activities that could disrupt wildlife habitats.

However, over time, the growth of both human and wildlife populations has intensified the competition for scarce resources like water and grazing land. Pressure on wildlife habitats intensified, leading to more frequent and severe human-wildlife conflicts.

Recently, the Tanzanian government, through the Ngorongoro Conservation Authority Area (NCAA), announced its goal to improve the living conditions of residents in the Ngorongoro division, especially those within the conservation area. This aims to separate human and wildlife habitats to enhance conservation efforts.

by Ben Taylor

In August, President Samia Suluhu Hassan announced her fourth cabinet reshuffle of 2024 and her fourteenth since taking office in March 2021.

The latest reshuffle sees the return of former ministers Palamagamba Kabudi and William Lukuvi to the cabinet, while two other ministers, Angela Kairuki and Ummy Mwalimu, have been removed. Kabudi, who has been reappointed as the Minister of Constitutional and Legal Affairs, and Lukuvi takes up the post of State Minister at the Prime Minister’s Office, overseeing Policy, Parliament, and Coordination. This role effectively makes him the Chief Whip in Parliament.

Lukuvi’s appointment reflects the trust President Samia places in him. Prior to this ministerial appointment he had been a key political advisor to the President since January 2022.

Jenista Mhagama, who was replaced by Lukuvi, has been reassigned to the Ministry of Health, where she takes over from Ummy Mwalimu, who has been completely removed from the cabinet. Mwalimu’s depar­ture is widely attributed to recent challenges at the National Health Insurance Fund (NHIF).

Pindi Hazara Chana has also been reappointed, in her case to the Ministry of Tourism and Natural Resources, replacing Angela Kairuki, who has been made an advisor to the President. Chana, who was removed from the Ministry of Tourism in February 2023 and later served in the Ministry of Sport and Culture and then Constitutional Affair Minister, now returns to her former role.

President Samia also announced the appointment of Hamza Johari as the new Attorney General succeeding Dr Eliezer Feleshi who has been appointed as a Justice at the court of appeal. Johari, who previously served as the Director General of the Tanzania Civil Aviation Authority, played a key role in negotiating the Dubai-Tanzania port agreement, which granted multinational DP World a 30-year contract to run, oper­ate, and develop Dar es Salaam port.

Earlier, in July, Tanzania’s information minister Nape Nnauye was removed from his post following an outcry over comments he made suggesting that elections could be rigged. He was filmed at a rally saying that he would help a fellow ruling party MP win in the 2025 election, and that “election results are not necessarily those in the ballot box, rather they depend on the person counting and making announce­ments”. He will now be replaced by former land and housing develop­ment minister Jerry Slaa.

At the same time, foreign minister January Makamba was also sacked, with Tanzania’s ambassador to Italy, Mahmoud Thabiti Kombo, chosen as his successor. This means that between 2021 and 2024, Tanzania has had five different foreign ministers, a post that the President describes as “the heart of the government.” The Ministry has not had any Minister who has stayed in the ministry for more than a year since President Samia Suluhu came into power.

Many observers have associated Makamba’s sacking with his political ambition for the Presidency. “She saw the previous minister was going against her expectations,” argued political analyst Thomas Kibwana. He added: “If the new minister is to serve for a long time, it is essential that they do not have excessive political ambitions that can detract him from the current responsibilities.”

In announcing the changes, President Samia did not mention specific reasons for her decisions but emphasised the need to put the national interest first. “Your own interests as a human being are secondary, but the nation’s interests come first,” she said. She referenced a Swahili proverb, saying that “positions of power are like borrowed clothes. If you use them well, and the owner sees you wearing them properly, looking neat, and not misbehaving they might let you keep the clothes for a while. But if they find that you are misbehaving with the clothes they lent you, they will not wait; they will take back their clothes.”

Since January, when Makamba had represented President Samia at the Italy-Africa summit, he had been on the receiving end of a social media campaign claiming that he used the trip to set up a network for his own bid for the Presidency.

Finally, the Director of the Prevention and Combating of Corruption Bureau (PCCB), CP Salum Hamduni, has been appointed as the Regional Administrative Secretary for Shinyanga Region. Hamduni, who was appointed as PCCB Director in May 2021, leaves the organization amid an ongoing public awareness campaign against election-related corrup­tion. Crispin Chalamila, a senior official from the President’s Office, has been appointed as the new Director of PCCB.

by Ben Taylor

Tundu Lissu announces presidential bid for 2025
Tundu Lissu, the vice chair of the opposition party Chadema, has announced that he has informed his party about his intention to run for the presidency of the United Republic of Tanzania through his party. He was also the party’s presidential candidate in 2020.

“I have indicated my intention as a presidential aspirant through my party officially,” Lissu explained in an online interview in August.

In 2020, Tundu Lissu was a presidential candidate representing Chadema, competing against the late President John Magufuli. In that election, which many described as the most flawed election in Tanzania’s history, Lissu received 1,933,271 votes, while President Magufuli was declared the winner with 12,516,252 votes.

Lissu’s announcement comes after various signs suggest some tension with the party, between him and the party chair, Freeman Mbowe. This rift was reportedly heightened during Chadema’s recent internal party elections, where Lissu said that there was a lot of corruption fuelled by money coming from the ruling party, CCM.

Taxing cryptocurrency
In the 2024/25 budget, Tanzania has announced a 3% tax on digital assets transactions. The new measure defines digital assets as anything of value that is intangible, including cryptocurrencies, token codes, and numbers held in digital form generated through cryptographic or other means.

The Act specifically targets non-resident individuals or entities that own platforms or facilitate the exchange or transfer of digital assets. This means the law will require crypto exchange sites and brokers to register in Tanzania’s tax system and withhold a tax rate of 3% when making payments to a resident as a result of transfer or exchange.

While the global market value of cryptocurrency stands at an estimated USD $2.46 trillion (2.2% of global GDP), Tanzania does not yet have a specific legal framework for digital assets. However, in 2019, the Bank of Tanzania issued a public notice against the use or trading of crypto­currency in the country.

Nevertheless, various reports indicate that a significant number of Tanzanians own cryptocurrencies. One report by a Singaporean cryp­tocurrency research firm, Triple A, estimates that about 2.3 million Tanzanians own cryptocurrency. A separate survey within Tanzania, conducted by Financial Sector Deepening Tanzania (FSDT), found that 1.7% of Tanzanian adults – equivalent to over 580,000 people – have invested in cryptocurrencies.

by Ben Taylor

President Samia at the rain affected Union Day celebrations in Dar-es-Salaam. Photo State House

A season of heavy rain has caused havoc – and over 150 deaths – across Tanzania. Speaking in late April, the Prime Minister Kassim Majaliwa said around 200,000 people and 50,000 households had been badly affected by the heavy rainfall. He warned that the rain could continue well into May.

“The heavy El Niño rains, accompanied by strong winds, floods, and landslides in various parts of the country, have caused significant damage,” he told parliament. “These include loss of life, destruction of crops, homes, citizens’ property, and infrastructure such as roads, bridges, and railways,” he added.

Similar devastation has been caused in Kenya as well, with 188 deaths reported.

To make matters worse, at the time of writing, a rare East African cyclone is anticipated for early May. “Hidaya Cyclone … is expected to dominate and affect the weather patterns in the country including heavy rain and strong winds in some regions near the Indian Ocean,” said the Tanzania Red Cross Society on X, formerly Twitter.

Hidaya, the equivalent of a Category 1 hurricane, is the first of its kind to develop in eastern Africa, according to the World Meteorological Organization. Wind speeds of up to 100mph are expected, as well as coastal storm surges and heavy rain. Kenyan authorities have issued mandatory evacuation orders for residents near 178 dams and water reservoirs.

Chris Fawkes of BBC weather explained that one of the biggest drivers of the rains is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The IOD – sometimes called the “Indian Niño” because of its similarity to its Pacific equivalent – refers to the difference in sea-surface temperatures in opposite parts of the Indian Ocean. When waters in the western Indian Ocean are much warmer than normal, this can bring heavier rain regardless of El Niño. However, this happens at the same time as an El Niño event, as was the case last year, the rains in East Africa can become extreme.

by Ben Taylor

The heavy rain affected celebrations marking 60 years since the union between Zanzibar and Tanganyika, held on April 26th at Uhuru Stadium in Dar es Salaam. Attendance was understandably low as the rain fell throughout the ceremony.

Military parades went ahead in the wet weather, while dignitaries sheltered in the covered sections of the stadium. Speaking at the event, President Samia Suluhu Hassan described how in 1964 the Presidents of Tanganyika and Zanzibar, Julius Nyerere and Abeid Karume respectively, were guided by wisdom, prudence, and courage in bringing Tanzanians together. She added that in was in this same spirit that leaders of all subsequent administrations have placed great importance on the Union.

On the social media platform X, formerly Twitter, she said that “The only gift we can give to the founders of this union is to protect and live up to their great vision. We are all witnesses to the significant progress we have made in the past 60 years.”

“We have every reason to continue to be proud of and protect this unique union that arose from our own decisions. In advancing it, we must implement the philosophy of reconciliation, tolerance, reform, and rebuilding our country to maintain peace and stability, essential pillars for the prosperity and resilience of our nation.”

Diplomatic messages of congratulations also flowed in. King Charles III sent a congratulatory message, which read: “Happy Union Day, Tanzania! Dear Madam President, on the special occasion of your national day, my wife and I would like to convey our warmest congratulations to your Excellency and the people of the United Republic of Tanzania, Charles R.”

The US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, also congratulated Tanzania before adding: “We applaud Tanzania’s commitment to undertaking important reforms to strengthen democratic governance, increase transparency, and spur economic growth.”

The Chinese ambassador to Tanzania, Ms Chen Mingjian, said “May the friendship between China and Tanzania last forever.”

by Ben Taylor

President Samia greets former president Jakaya Kikwete and Sierra Leone’s Ernest Bai Koroma (L) – photo State House

Power games within CCM continue as 2025 approaches
It has long been the case in Tanzanian politics that power struggles within the ruling party, CCM, have had more significance than disputes that pit CCM against opposition parties. Such has been the dominance of CCM that manoeuvres to seize and maintain control of the party are where the real focus of the country’s politics lies.

This is where the pre-2015 struggle between former prime minister, Edward Lowassa, and Bernard Membe primarily played out, though both ended up running for President for opposition parties after party elders brought forward John Magufuli as something of a compromise candidate.

The significance of that choice only became clear well into President Magufuli’s term in office as President. And it continues to cause repercussions to this day, with his Vice President, the current President Samia Suluhu Hassan working hard to maintain her control of a party that remains filled with divisions over matters of policy, personality and power.

Having never truly been chosen for the role by either party members or the national electorate, President Samia’s starting point was weaker than previous new party leaders. She is also dealing with the aftermath of the divisive presidency of her predecessor, who was extremely popular with many – both in the party and the wider country – for taking on corruption and “neo-colonialist” investors, and yet also drew extensive criticism for his approach, variously described by critics as “draconian”, “populist”, “anti-democratic”, and “economically illiterate”.

There are those within the party – including some at high levels – for whom a continuation of Magufuli’s style is the best way forward for some combination of the party, the country and their own interests. And there are others – again including some at high levels – who would prefer to see a return to the business-friendly (and perhaps corruption-friendly) approach of Presidents Mkapa and Kikwete.

The challenge President Samia faces is to consolidate her position as party chair, ensure she faces no serious opposition within the party for nomination as the CCM presidential candidate in 2025, while keeping the various party factions happy as they wait to pounce either on any weakness she may show between now and 2025, or, failing that, in the lead-up to 2030 when President Samia will not be eligible for another term.

Many of President Samia’s early moves as President were to gradually roll-back the most egregious anti-democratic measures introduced by President Magufuli – such as restrictions on the media and on opposition party gatherings. The pace of this change has noticeably slowed in recent months, however.
In the previous issue of TA (No. 136), it was reported how her response to criticisms of the involvement of DP World in managing the port in Dar es Salaam showed some Magufuli-like instincts, clamping down hard on critics (See below for an update on that situation).

More recently, she has appointed a key ally of President Magufuli, Paul Makonda, to the influential position of CCM’s Secretary of Ideology and Politics Publicity – a position that represents the party to the public as much as any other besides the President.

Some observers see Makonda’s appointment as a means to gain confidence among party members who were big supporters of the former President, including those from his stronghold in the north­west of the country. Others have pointed out that the appointment contradicts the reformist and reconciliatory ideals that the President has been claiming since she assumed the presidency in March 2021. Tundu Lissu, CHADEMA’s deputy national chairperson (Tanzania Mainland), has described Makonda’s appointment as a sign of the “coming dark and painful days of politicking.”

Further, in November 2023, the CCM Secretary-General, Daniel Chongolo, requested to step down after being “defamed” online, amid allegations of sexual impropriety. The specifics of the case are unclear, but some have argued that he had been targeted by others in the party who were keen to remove him from his position.

[STOP PRESS: Shortly before going to press, it was announced that the new Secretary General of CCM will be Emmanuel Nchimbi. Mr Nchimbi is a former Minister of Home Affairs (2012-2013) and more recently has been Tanzania’s Ambassador to Brazil between 2016 and 2021 and Egypt since 2022.]

In this context, it is worth reflecting on the words of former President Jakaya Kikwete at CCM’s national congress meeting in December, 2022. His words are outwardly reassuring, but also bear an implicit warning: “Don’t listen to people’s rumours that there is this young man who will run, or this old man will run. It’s pure nonsense,” he said. “I’m not saying I’m stopping them, but I don’t see any member of CCM who will take the form to oppose you in 2025. Maybe if things become too much worse between now and then. But I don’t believe that will happen, and it’s not our tradition.”

New election legislation presented to Parliament
A collection of bills were presented to Parliament for their first reading late in 2023, with a view to introducing some changes to how elections are run. Specifically, this includes a new Elections Bill, which is set to replace the Elections Act of 1985 and the Local Government Elections Act of 1979; a National Electoral Commission Bill, establishing the basis on which the commission should be governed; and a bill proposing amendments to the Election Expenses Act, Political Parties Act.

As soon as the bills became public, they created some controversy, largely for not including various provisions that had been expected. Indeed, the majority of what is included in the bills is minor: making small clarifications and corrections to existing laws, or consolidating them, and/or part of the country’s gradual shift from the use of English to Swahili in its legislation.

Critics of the new laws pointed out, however, that there is nothing to substantively change the independence – or lack of independence – of the National Electoral Commission (NEC) or the Office of the Registrar of Political Parties (ORPP), which had been widely called for. Nor is anything proposed that would allow for independent candidates. And nor do the proposals address the long-recognised problem of local government employees, dependent on senior ruling party politicians for their career prospects, taking the role of local election coordinators (returning officers). It has been widely reported that in 2020 the then President John Magufuli said he would have serious questions for any council director who received vehicles, housing and their salary from the President and yet went on to announce an opposition candidate as the victor.

There are legal concerns as well. The use of local government employees and the constitutional block on independent candidates have both been determined by the African Court of Human and People’s Rights (ACHPR) to represent a denial of citizens’ rights. The court has directed the government to take appropriate steps to change the law and/or the constitution.

Earlier, a meeting convened in August 2023 by the Tanzania Centre for Democracy (TCD), an organisation whose members are Tanzania’s political parties, including CCM, had concluded that it was too late to introduce major changes to the national Constitution before the elections in 2025. Instead, they had recommended some minor changes that would include provisions to establish a truly independent electoral commission and to allow for independent candidates.

The new bills strongly suggest that the government has no plans to introduce the changes either as recommended by the TCD or as directed by the African Court.

The Catholic Bishops Conference was among those concerned by the lack of changes in the proposed new laws. The bishops pointed out that relying on public servants as returning officers is discriminatory and unconstitutional, and also recommended for an independent body to appoint members of the electoral commission instead of the President, and proposed a separate budget for the national election.

Dr. Anna Henga, Executive Director of the Legal and Human Rights Centre, and NGO, proposed that “the commission should be given the power to hire its own staff at ward, district, regional, and national levels,” rather than relying on local government employees.

Speaking on behalf of CCM, the party’s new Secretary of Ideology and Publicity, Paul Makonda, came out in defence of the proposed laws. He said that the exercise has largely considered recommendations from stakeholders. It was unfortunate, he added, that criticisms of the bills were coming from those, such as Chadema party chairperson Freeman Mbowe and his party, who had been major beneficiaries of the ongoing political reconciliation under President Samia Suluhu Hassan.

Government proceeds with DP World port deal despite controversy
President Samia Suluhu Hassan in October 2023 witnessed the signing of three investment and operation contracts with the Dubai-based logistics company DP World, having decided to proceed with the controversial partnership despite heavy criticism.

The ceremony occurred at Chamwino State House in Dodoma after lawmakers approved the controversial Tanzania-Dubai intergovernmental agreement that would see DP World take over some operations at the Dar es Salaam port.

The government has hailed the deal as a “game-changer,” arguing that it will help Tanzania achieve its ambitions of becoming a major regional logistical hub. However, critics including thirty-seven Catholic Bishops argue that the benefits are exaggerated, with some saying that the deal is effectively “selling off” the country. Public debate around the issue had become highly politicised, including heavy-handed policing of critics (see previous issue of TA).

The signed contracts include the Host Government Agreement (HGA), the lease and operation of berths 4-7 and the joint operation of berths 0-3 between Tanzania Ports Authority (TPA) and DP World for commercial and governmental activities. Few details of the contracts have been publicly released.

After witnessing the signing of the contracts, President Samia said the government had considered proposals shared by stakeholders on the intergovernmental agreement, which include the Tanganyika Law Society (TLS), political parties, civil societies, activists and the press. “We listened to our religious leaders, and even our former leaders,” the Head of State noted. “I can confidently say that there is no group or voice that was ignored.”

She explained that the government had appointed a team of experts, which also included politicians and lawyers, who went through all the comments made regarding the deal, which ultimately advised which should be considered and which were baseless and could be ignored.

“This task was superbly done and contributed immensely to the negotiating team,” President Samia said.

Speaking during the signing ceremony, TPA Director General Plasduce Mbossa said the contract between the government and DP World will last 30 years, and DP World’s performance will be evaluated every five years.

This at least partly answers one of the biggest criticisms of the original agreement with DP World – that it had no end-date and might thus commit Tanzania to partnership with the firm beyond the country’s best interests.

“After signing these agreements, the government will be able to keep more than 60 per cent of all revenue as all operating costs will be borne by DP World,” Mr Mbossa said. He explained that custom duties collected by the Tanzania Revenue Authority (TRA) will be based on the number of serviced ships, leading to a significant increase in revenue as more ships will be serviced. “We expect that revenue collected by TRA at the port will increase from the current TSh7.8 trillion in 2021/22 to TSh26 trillion by 2032,” Mr Mbossa explained (from GBP £2.4bn to £8bn.)

He pointed out that the contracts do not involve all port operations in Dar es Salaam or all other Tanzanian ports, revealing that TPA has already begun finding an operator for berths 8-11, and that security at the port would remain the government’s responsibility.

The chairman and chief executive of DP World, Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem, described the signing of the three contracts as a “significant step” in his company’s commitment to Tanzania. “Over the next five years,” he said, “DP World will invest in excess of US$250 million to upgrade the port.”

“We’ll strengthen the port’s role as a maritime gateway for the copper belt and other important green energy mineral territories,” he added. “We’ll also do this with a multi-phase plan that will also focus on improving transport and logistic services throughout Tanzania and into the hinterland.”

by Ben Taylor

Port deal sparks heated controversy

Prof Makame Mbarawa (centre) at the container port area

A new agreement for the management of key port infrastructure in Tanzania has generated intense heat and controversy, threatening to undermine the improved democratic environment that had been emerging under President Samia Suluhu Hassan.

The deal – an intergovernmental agreement (IGA) between the Government of Tanzania and the Emirate of Dubai – would potentially see DP World, an Emirati multinational logistics company, take control of the operations of a large part of Dar es Salaam port. Though the agreement was agreed and signed back in 2022, it only came to public attention more recently when the documents were leaked on social media in May 2023.

What does the agreement say?
The controversy stems initially from the apparently highly favourable terms offered to DP World. Critics point to a part of the IGA that they claim offers DP World a 100-year contract to manage the port. They also highlight a lack of opportunities for scrutiny in the process through which the agreement was negotiated and signed, and claim the agreement is in breach of both Tanzanian and international law.

Dr Nshala, former President of the Tanganyika Law Society (TLS) and now Executive Director of the environmental group Lawyers’ Environmental Action Team (LEAT), described the controversial deal on social media as equivalent to “selling the country off to foreigners,” pointing out that the decision to sign such a deal constituted “betrayal and treason” against Tanzania.

Mdude Nyagali, of opposition party Chadema, asked “how could our government sign as bad a contract as this?” Mr Nyagali questioned. “It is either they were drunk or bribed.”

Concerns extended well beyond activists and opposition politicians, however. The Tanzania Episcopal Conference (TEC – the group comprising all Roman Catholic Bishops in Tanzania), rejected the port agreement. Rev. Charles Kitima, secretary general of TEC released a statement saying that the bishops see that most citizens do not want this agreement that gives the foreign investor the authority and right to own major economic infrastructure.

The government, however, defended the agreement. Works and transport minister, Makame Mbarawa, said that by working with DP World, the government expects to increase revenue collection through the port by over 200% in the next ten years, from the current TSh 7.8 trillion per year to TSh 26 trillion in the next decade.

“The potential private sector investment could enhance the competitiveness of Dar es Salaam Port by improving service quality and increasing efficiency,” he said. “It is on those grounds that more business could be drawn to the port, thus boosting revenue and contributing to Tanzania’s overall economic development.”

On why the government chose DP World, Prof Mbarawa said the company was uniquely positioned to partner with the government as it is a global logistics company that able to deliver the required transformation across the entire logistics value chain. “The company has a proven track record of managing, operating and investing in trade infrastructure in Africa for over 20 years to the highest international standards,” he said. “With DP World, we expect to see improvement in the port’s performance. We expect to see the discharge period of vessels being cut to one day from the current four to five.”

President Samia Suluhu Hassan herself has described the deal as a “rare opportunity,” urging Tanzanians to stop “quarrelling” and support her administration’s efforts to transform the country.

Plasduce Mbossa, director general of the Tanzania Ports Authority (TPA) also defended the specifics of the IGA. He said there was misinformation being spread by those opposed to the plan. “It seems those who brought the 100 years aspect in the subject have their own interests. … It is a complete distortion of facts”. The agreement, he said, merely spells out the areas of cooperation between Tanzania and the emirate of Dubai, adding that this included training, information and communication technology and in the development and improvement of ports in general.

If the agreement is endorsed by Parliament, he explained, it will pave the way for more negotiations between TPA and DP World with regard to implementation of the plan. “No implementation agreements have yet been signed,” he said, adding that they had not even been negotiated.
What the IGA says is that the IGA will cease to operate as soon as any implementation agreement between the Tanzanian authorities and DP World ends. What this means is that actual time for the contract will be known from the agreements that will follow.”

Reactions and counter-reactions. And over-reactions?
It is likely that many on both sides of the public debate – including, frankly, this correspondent – are ill-qualified to reach a sound judgement on the details of the agreement itself. Nevertheless, the debate prompted by the leak of the IGA has stirred up reactions that have led some to question whether the apparent moves by President Samia to re-open democratic space in Tanzania are indeed genuine.

Several prominent critics of the deal have been summoned by the police and/or arrested. This includes the former President of the Tanganyika Law Society Dr. Rugemeleza Nshala, and opposition politician Mdude Nyagali. Another lawyer and critic of the deal, Peter Madeleka, was arrested after the High Court unexpectedly cancelled a previous plea-bargaining agreement relating to a case from 2020. Former Tanzanian Ambassador to Sweden, Dr Wilbroad Slaa, has been arrested and stripped of his title.

The attorney general, Eliezer Feleshi, filed an application to the Advocate’s Committee – Tanzania’s disciplinary institution for lawyers – alleging professional misconduct by another lawyer, Boniface Mwabukasi, because of remarks he made about the deal, seeking a declaration that he had committed “gross professional misconduct” and an order to bar him from practicing law.

The arrest of the critics came shortly after the Inspector General of Police (IGP), Camilius Wambura, warned that police would find and arrest people who have declared nationwide mass demonstrations against the deal (demonstrations that never materialised on any meaningful scale). He described their calls to “bring down the government” before 2025 as “treason,” which “cannot be tolerated.”

At least two dozen people have been arrested since June for opposing the deal, according to Human Rights Watch. Dr Slaa, Adv Mwabukusi, and Mr Nyagali remain in detention at the time of writing. They face various charges, including both sedition and treason. Treason carries a mandatory death penalty and is listed as an unbailable offence under section 148 of the country’s Criminal Procedures Act.

Party politics, democracy and freedom of expression
In early July, CCM’s top leadership discussed and endorsed the deal, resolving to intensify awareness about the importance of the agreement, emphasizing that the deal is as per the CCM’s manifesto. The party secretary general, Daniel Chongolo, has also called on all CCM members and leaders to defend the deal. “This is a CCM initiative, if you see any CCM member anywhere not defending this deal, be sure to doubt his commitment to the party,” he said at a rally in Mbeya.

The opposition, most particularly Chadema, has adopted the port deal as one of its key issues. In July, the party chair announced a new campaign (#OkoaBandariZetu #SaveOurPorts) to run alongside their existing ‘255’ campaign focusing on the new constitution. The party leadership has vowed that this will remain a big issue unless the contract is terminated, “This is a big political agenda for the next twenty years, not just for the 2025 election,” said CHADEMA Vice Chairperson, Tundu Lissu.

The spectre of the 2025 election clearly looms large over the debate, with both opposition parties and President Samia’s opponents within CCM trying to take advantage of the issue. Nevertheless, the heavy-handed actions of the government in general and the police in particular in response to public criticism has alarmed many who had previously thought President Samia’s administration was trying to open up democratic space. After all, what is freedom of expression if it does not include the right to criticise?

“The Tanzanian government’s suppression of its critics is a troubling sign of its low tolerance for dissenting views,” said Oryem Nyeko, Tanzania researcher at Human Rights Watch. “Instead of clamping down on critics, the government should respect the right to freedom of expression and assembly, and listen to them.”

Human rights organisations in Tanzania spoke out against authorities’ decision to detain several people who have been criticising the agreement, condemning the “arbitrary arrests” of the deal’s critics and calling for their “immediate and unconditional” release.

“We firmly believe that every person is entitled to freedom of speech and opinion on everything happening in the country, including on the port deal,” said Anna Henga, Executive Director of the Legal and Human Rights Centre (LHRC), reading a joint statement on behalf of the organisations. “People do not deserve to be threatened for exercising their constitutionally guaranteed freedoms, backed by regional and international instruments to which Tanzania is a signatory,” she added.

The government said that those who were condemning the arrest of the critics of the Tanzania-Dubai intergovernmental agreement had failed to differentiate between criticism of the deal and the rule of law.

Nape Nnauye, the Minister for Information, Communication and Information Technology, said that no one had been arrested for criticising the deal, but rather they had violated the country’s laws. They had made “specific public threats of a serious criminal nature, which include calling for the violent overthrow of the government of the day,” he said.

“The suspects, some of whom publicly sought to incite citizens to bear arms against the Tanzania Police Force, were apprehended to send a strong message to deter any offenders from committing criminal offences,” Mr Nnauye added. “The arrests do not, in any way, restrict freedom of expression in Tanzania, but are part of the law enforcement to prevent possible social unrest that may result from calls for a rebellion against a democratically-elected government,” he clarified.

Concerns for the state of democracy rose further, however, in early September, when opposition leader Tundu Lissu was himself briefly arrested, along with various aides and security guards, for holding an allegedly unlawful assembly. A party spokesperson said “police entered his [hotel] room by force and took him away without telling where they were going.”

Arusha regional police commander Justine Masejo later said they had detained Lissu and three others for questioning about accusations they were holding an unlawfully assembly and preventing police from doing their job. Lissu was released on bail a few hours later.

Since returning from exile in January (see previous issues of TA), Lissu has been holding political rallies across the country, at which he had voiced criticism of the port agreement. His return from exile followed several moves by President Samia to re-open democratic space, including the lifting a six-year ban on political rallies.

Seeking solutions
Former Controller and Auditor General (CAG) Mussa Assad has tentatively backed the controversial agreement, and had some suggestions for how the issue could be resolved. Prof Assad, currently the Deputy Vice-Chancellor at the Muslim University of Morogoro (MUM), said Tanzania does not have the luxury to shirk foreign investments and lacks much of what it takes to build a prosperous economy. He said that much of the deal’s criticism is being informed by the lack of general understanding of investment issues and the misreading of the intergovernmental agreement itself.

On the issue of the 100-year time-frame, Prof Assad said agreements between two countries usually do not have a timeframe, adding that the issue would be considered in the project-specific contracts. However, he added, “because people have complained about it, the government can speak to its partners and agree to a specified duration with the IGA so that people can be happy about it,” he said.

He also backed a proposal shared by the leader of the opposition ACT-Wazalendo party, Zitto Kabwe, of forming a company that is jointly-owned by TPA, DP World and Tanzanians through the Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange and which will be responsible for the port’s operations.

Prof Assad warned against leaving everything to investors, urging the government to sit down with DP World and agree on a specific period for reviewing each other based on the agreed responsibilities, which could be after every four or five years.

At the start of September, there were possible signs that even the government was looking for a way out. They withdrew proposed modifications to two laws controlling Tanzania’s natural resources that were up for debate in Parliament. Attorney General Eliezer Feleshi said the government had accepted “advice” from a house committee to drop proposed legislative amendments that would appear to remove a potential legal obstacle to the controversial IGA.

Whether this is indeed a sign of compromise, or merely a shift in tactics, remains to be seen.