by Ben Taylor

New Constitution briefly back on the table, then off again
Tanzanians may have to wait a little longer for constitutional changes, as a government-sanctioned task force formally proposed in its preliminary report, published in March, that the process should be postponed until after the 2025 General Election. President Samia Suluhu Hassan said she agreed with the idea of making “gradual improvements” rather than wholesale constitutional changes. “Perhaps a complete rewrite won’t be necessary, only in some areas,” she said. “And even if we do have to rewrite the whole document, much of the necessary amendment work will have already been done,” she added.

Task force chair Rwekaza Mukandala said they felt that there is not enough time to adopt a new Constitution within the current electoral cycle. “The process can start immediately after the election, and our proposals on the ways it can be achieved, when the time is right, will be part of our final report to be delivered at a later date,” he said.
Formation of the task force followed pressure from opposition parties, which began the new year by expressing their determination to press for Constitutional review process to be restarted in 2022.

Chadema vice-chairman Tundu Lissu led these calls, saying 2022 would be the start of a new movement to demand a new constitution. “The current Katiba will not solve our problems with the administrative and political system,” he noted.

Lissu explained that the party’s Central Committee met digitally on December 28, 2021 with the aim of shaping the party’s agenda. He said they evaluated the country’s history since the return of the multi-party political system in 1992 and 30 years after Judge Nyalali’s commission proposed the drafting of a new constitution. “We need a new Constitution now, not in 2025. Otherwise CCM will use this current Constitution to steal the election again just as it has always done since multiparty politics returned to Tanzania,” said Mr Lissu. He pledged to return to Tanzania from exile in the near future, so as to lead the movement in person.

Though most opposition parties agree on the need for a new constitution, they disagree on the order of the process. What should come first: A new Constitution addressing all aspects of the reforms agenda on a long-term basis, or “Tume Huru” (an independent electoral commission) ensuring a level playing field for all parties going into the 2025 poll.

Chadema say the Constitution should come first, as this will give the independent electoral commission true independence. ACT Wazalendo say a newly independent commission before 2025 is the priority, enabling better representation of different viewpoints in parliament, and thus also in the process to draft a new Constitution. “We hope that 2022 will be a year of national reconciliation that will achieve the success of finding an Independent Electoral Commission that will facilitate the achievement of a new Constitution acceptable to all,” said Zitto Kabwe, leader of ACT Wazalendo.

Tanzania started the process of writing a new constitution in 2012, after former President Jakaya Kikwete responded to strong opposition demands by appointing a Constitutional Review Commission (CRC) headed by the highly respected former Prime Minister, Judge Joseph Warioba. The team was tasked to conduct extensive nationwide consultations on the new constitution.

However, the Draft Constitution tabled by Judge Warioba at the Constituent Assembly (CA) in February 2014 was radically overhauled by CCM MPs, resulting in a Proposed Constitution that lacked the support of opposition parties and many citizens. This prompted a boycott of CA sessions by the major opposition parties. The CA submitted the Proposed Constitution to the government in October 2014. However, the planned referendum to determine whether it should be formally adopted never happened. Upon coming to office in late 2015, President Magufuli showed no interest in reviving the process.

by Ben Taylor

Cabinet reshuffle in President Hassan’s image?
President Samia Suluhu Hassan began 2022 with a cabinet reshuffle, widely reported as a move to strengthen her hand looking towards the general election in 2025.

The most notable absentees in the new cabinet are William Lukuvi, Kitila Mkumbo, Prof. Palamagamba Kabudi and Geoffrey Mwambe, the former Ministers of Lands and Housing, Industry and Trade, Constitution and Legal Affairs, and Investment respectively. Dr Dorothy Gwajima has been demoted to a less politically sensitive position as Minister of Gender and Social Welfare, from her former position as Minister of Health.

Prominent new ministers include former CCM Publicity Secretary Nape Nnauye, who returns to the cabinet as the Minister of Information, Communications and Information Technology, and Ridhiwan Kikwete, the son of the former President, who is now Deputy Minister of Land, Housing and Human settlements. Other new appointees include:
• Eng Hamad Masauni as Minister of Home Affairs
• Hussein Bashe as Minister of Agriculture with Anthony Mavunde as his deputy
• Prof. Adolf Mkenda as Minister of Education, Science and Technology
• Innocent Bashungwa as Minister of State in the President’s Office for Regional Administration and Local Government
• A newly formed Ministry of Investment, Trade and Industry will now be headed by Dr Ashatu Kijaji with Exaud Kigahe as her deputy
• Mohammed Mchengerwa as Minister of Culture, Arts and Sports
• George Simbachawene as Minister of Legal and Constitution Affairs, having moved from Home Affairs
Ministers with responsibility for finance, defence, energy, tourism and foreign affairs remained unchanged.

The President also changed the structure of some ministries. She merged the Investment Ministry which was under the Prime Minister’s Office with the Ministry of Industry and Trade to become the Ministry of Investment, Industry and Trade, and split the Ministry of Health and Social Welfare into a separate Ministry of Health and a Ministry of Community Development, Gender, Women and Special Needs.

One analyst described the change as a purge of Magufuli loyalists, pointing to the departures of Prof Kabudi, Prof Mkumbo and Mwambe, and the absence of the former powerful finance permanent secretary, Dotto James, a close associate of President Magufuli, from the new list of permanent secretaries. The same analyst noted also that the new cabinet includes the return of some prominent figures from the Kikwete era, including Pindi Chana and Nape Nnauye, as well as Ridhiwani Kikwete.

The key factor that forms the context for the reshuffle is the President’s need to consolidate her position within the ruling party, CCM. Having come somewhat unexpectedly to power, she inherited most of the senior figures appointed by her divisive predecessor. She made only minor changes to the cabinet after becoming President, and may be looking towards the 2025 general election with some concern.

The next election is still three and a half years away, but an underground argument rages as to whether or not she should run again for President in 2025. Many within the party, particularly those with their own ambitions for the Presidency and their associates, are pushing the view that her role is to serve out President Magufuli’s second term before handing over to someone else. There is also the fact that later in 2022 there will be internal elections for leadership positions within CCM – positions that will hold considerable influence over the party’s approach to the 2025 election.

The President herself hinted at her motivation for the reshuffle a few days earlier. “All those I feel have their eyes on the 2025 general elections, and work with that in mind, I will relieve of their duties so that they can have an ample time to prepare themselves, but outside the government.”

She also referred to recent public statements by some against her administration’s decision to borrow in order to fund its development programmes, linking this with opposition she is facing within CCM and what she called “election fever” ahead of 2025. The Speaker of Parliament, Job Ndugai, had been particularly outspoken in this regard. He resigned after being criticised by the President – she described his statements as “unimaginable” – leaving a vacancy that would have been more significant in previous years when the opposition had more than a handful of MPs.

“When circumstances handed me this responsibility, there was much talk on ‘interim government’ among MPs,” said the President. “I went to the Constitution to see what it says about ‘interim government’. I did not see anything. I said to myself, okay, let’s go.” She urged her Ministers and senior officials – some of whom she accused of having mixed themselves in factions organising against her – to take her hands and work with her to “bring development to Tanzanians.”

by Ben Taylor

The criminal trial of Freeman Mbowe, leader of the opposition party Chadema, continued throughout late 2021, providing several dramatic twists and turns. Mbowe and three co-accused are on trial for terrorism and economic sabotage, facing six counts including conspiring to blow up fuel stations, endanger national security and cause alarm. They vehemently deny the charges and say they are politically motivated.

In September, the judge hearing the case, Judge Elinaza Luvanda, stepped down after Mbowe told the court that he and his three co-accused had lost trust in the judge’s ability to conduct the trial fairly. They cited online claims that Judge Luvanda was an active member of the intelligence service TISS. His replacement, Judge Mustapha Siyani, only lasted a few weeks in the role, before stepping down after President Samia Suluhu Hassan appointed him as Principal Judge of the High Court of Tanzania.

Also in September, tension developed outside the courthouse when court officials denied entry to the court to Mbowe’s supporters. The situation was resolved – though not to the satisfaction of all involved – when the court allowed some supporters to enter after being searched and having surrendered their mobile phones.

Amid much legal wrangling, some details of the case against the accused have been provided. The prosecution has alleged that, between May 1 and August 1, 2020 at the Aishi Hotel in Moshi Municipality, Kilimanajaro Region, and also at different places in Dar es Salaam, Morogoro and Arusha regions, the accused persons conspired to blow up fuel stations, to blow up public gatherings and disrupt political stability, constitutional order and the national economy, and to bring the good name of the United Republic of Tanzania into disrepute.

The Kinondoni Regional Police Commander and Assistant Commissioner of Police (ACP), Ramadhani Kingai, read out a statement signed by one of the co-accused, Adamu Hassan Kasekwa, in which Kasekwa admitted to his involvement in all the offences and listed his co-accused. In court, however, Kasekwa asserted that his confession had been obtained through torture.

ACP Kingai also stated that police search had found various items including uniforms for Tanzania People’s Defence Forces (TPDF), a notebook containing maps and names of petrol stations that the accused had planned to blow up as well as market details including the market of Kilombero.

In December, the leader of the ACT Wazalendo opposition party, Zitto Kabwe, asked President Hassan to intervene to secure the release of Mr Mbowe.

Tundu Lissu, deputy chair of Chadema, took issue with Kabwe’s approach, however. He insisted that opposition parties should not be engaging with any meeting organised by either the Registrar of Political Parties or the police until the government establishes a conducive environment for dialogue and Mr Mbowe is released. “We cannot agree to go to dialogue with the government when they have not fulfilled the basic minimum of what we have been requesting for Zanzibar or Tanzania Mainland,” he said.

A meeting to discuss the state of democracy was held in early December, organised by the Tanzania Centre for Democracy (TCD) and attended by leaders including Chadema’s secretary general, John Mnyika, Philip Mangula of CCM, James Mbatia of NCCR, and Ibrahim Lipumba of CUF.

Mr Kabwe, who also serves as the chair of TCD, said that the meeting called on Mr Mangula to take up Mbowe’s issue to the President and request that it be dropped because it was not in the public interest.

Mbowe has been in police custody and later remand prison since July 2021.

by Ben Taylor

Six months into the presidency of President Samia Suluhu Hassan, it remains unclear what her leadership will bring. In some areas she has shown a clear change of direction compared to her predecessor, while in others the difference brought about by the change of leader has been barely discernible.

There are three areas where the change is considerable. The first of these is her handling of the Coronavirus pandemic, where she has abandoned some of the more idiosyncratic approaches employed by President Magufuli [see separate article].

Second is her diplomatic outlook. Her predecessor rarely travelled outside the country and delivered a pugnacious style of foreign policy, based on the starting assumption that everyone else’s intentions towards Tanzania are malign. In contrast, President Hassan has employed a more open style and a gentler touch. And she has travelled more: already visiting Uganda (twice), Kenya, Burundi, Rwanda, Malawi, Mozambique and Zambia, meaning she has made as many foreign trips in her first six months as President Magufuli took in his entire time in office.

She has taken steps to patch up relations with Kenya, particularly over trade in agricultural produce. A Presidential visit to Kenya delivered a bilateral deal to abolish the restrictions that Nairobi had imposed on Tanzanian maize, which in turn led to a reported six-fold increase in maize exports to Kenya.

Under her leadership, the Tanzanian government has also ratified the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement. This is expected to attract more investors and provide access to a large market for the country’s produce and workers. If implemented successfully, the newly formed free trade area will unlock a regional market of 1.2 billion people with a combined gross domestic product (GDP) of $3.4 trillion for international investors. The AfCFTA agreement, signed in March 2018, hopes to double intra-African trade. The official start of trading was delayed in 2020 by the Coronavirus pandemic, but it began officially on January 1st 2021. Tanzania now joins 41 other countries as part of the agreement.

The third area of difference is her attitude towards economics, and business in particular. President Magufuli’s “bulldozer” style encompassed his approach to economic matters, including a no-nonsense stance on taxation and an aggressive posture towards the business interests of those he perceived as working against him. Foreign investors complained that the business environment had become more difficult. The economic effects of these positions are hard to assess with confidence, particularly given how politicised official economic data became under his Presidency – to the point where the IMF and World Bank pointedly stopped trusting official figures. Nevertheless, the effects are widely perceived to have included both a tightening of economic conditions and an increase in tax revenues.

President Hassan, in contrast, has made overtures to investors and business leaders. She has said that henceforth, tax collection would focus on compliance instead of coercion and intimidation. She has also promised that her government will actively listen to business leaders, so it can understand and address their complaints.

At the same time, the new President has attracted criticism for the way her government has turned its tax-raising attention to ordinary citizens – through the mobile money tax [see Economics and Business section in this issue], and through other measures that hit the poor hardest, such as refocussing building taxes on renters rather than landlords.

On domestic political matters, the extent to which President Hassan has diverged from President Magufuli’s heavy-handed style remains highly uncertain. Despite initial signs of a relaxation of restrictions on political activity and freedom of expression, more recently there have been growing concerns among pro-democracy groups that the new President’s approach may have more in common with her predecessor’s than previously thought.

Most obviously, the arrest and detention of opposition leader Freeman Mbowe on terrorism charges [see separate article] provoked such concerns. The extent to which the President was involved in the decision to charge Mbowe is unclear, but it is unlikely that it would have gone ahead without her approval. She has also spoken about the case, telling the BBC that the charges were not politically motivated and arguing that the country remains very democratic. She added that while the case is in court she is not at liberty to discuss it in detail, and advised that the judiciary should be left to do their job.

Similar concerns have been prompted by the suspension of two newspapers. In early September, Raia Mwema, a leading Swahili-language weekly, was suspended for 30 days, for “repeatedly publishing false information and deliberate incitement,” according to Gerson Msigwa, the government’s chief spokesperson. He cited three recent stories, including one about a gunman who killed four people in a rampage through a diplomatic quarter of Dar es Salaam. The article linked the gunman to ruling party Chama cha Mapinduzi (CCM), according to Msigwa, adding that the article violated the 2016 Media Services Act.

The other suspension, introduced several weeks earlier, arguably hints at perhaps the greatest challenge President Hassan faces. In this case, the CCM-owned Uhuru newspaper was suspended for 14 days, after publishing a front page story under the headline: “I Don’t Have Intentions to Contest for Presidency in 2025 – Samia.”

A power struggle underway?
To suspend her own party’s newspaper, particularly given the subject of the offending article, suggests an internal struggle for control within CCM. President Magufuli had built up a party machinery filled with his supporters. Many of these are uncomfortable with some of the changes President Hassan has brought in. Others are more pragmatic, adjusting their stances to align with the new circumstances. Yet more are looking anxiously (or ambitiously) towards 2025, when the next Presidential elections are due.

The constitution is clear: President Hassan is entitled to run again for President in 2025. President Magufuli would not have been eligible to do so. (Unless he had brought in constitutional change to term limits, which had looked possible but which is now a moot point.) Thus any party figure with presidential aspirations faces the probable reality that those ambitions will have to be delayed by five more years. There are no doubt some prominent and influential figures and their supporters who are frustrated by this, some of whom may have wished to foster an expectation President Hassan should merely serve out President Magufuli’s second term and then step down in 2025.

Internal power struggles within CCM are nothing new. President Magufuli himself became leader of the party without a strong base of support – essentially a compromise candidate – and it took some time (and a strong will) before he was able to stifle the grumblings of internal dissent and shape the party in his own image. The popularity he gained with the public for his no-nonsense approach and vocal patriotism made it hard for opponents within the party to stand up to him, and he came down hard on anyone who expressed critical views.

Nevertheless, President Hassan faces an even more difficult challenge. Having become President on the basis of being Vice President at the time of her predecessor’s untimely death, and having essentially been hand-picked for Vice President by a tiny group of party insiders rather than by the membership at large, she starts with an even weaker power base than President Magufuli had. She is yet to prove herself with the public. And she has to contend with two large sets of party members who are pre-disposed to remain lukewarm towards her: die-hard Magufuli supporters and those with presidential ambitions of their own.

These challenges may also be showing up in President Hassan’s handling of other matters – such as Covid-19, or even the arrest of Mbowe. Would she be inclined to do things differently if she didn’t have internal party management matters to consider? Is she picking her battles carefully, choosing where to apply her limited political capital and where to let things go?

Even beyond politics, Covid, diplomacy and economics, there are other matters of significance where the President is yet to make her direction clear. Will she maintain President Magufuli’s hard-line approach to corruption and waste in government, or might we see the return of these problems that plagued the country in earlier periods? How will she handle the legacy of the mega-projects – the Stiegler’s Gorge dam, the purchase of aircraft for Air Tanzania – that may prove more complicated to manage than to introduce?

No-one is yet in a position to conclude with confidence what President Hassan’s style or focus will be. To date, this could perhaps be summarised as a gentler and more open version of Magufuli-ism. But isn’t a compassionate bulldozer a contradiction in terms?

by Ben Taylor

On July 21st, Freeman Mbowe, the leader of Tanzania’s largest opposition party Chadema, was arrested. The arrest took place at 2.30am at his hotel in Mwanza, hours before Mbowe was due to speak at a conference calling for constitutional reforms. Ten other party members, including some holding leadership positions, were also arrested.

Mbowe was charged five days later. He appeared before Kisutu Magistrate’s Court where he was charged with conspiracy and the provision of funds to commit terrorist acts under Tanzania’s Economic and Organized Crime Control Act and its Prevention of Terrorism Act, respectively. As these are terrorism-related charges, Mbowe does not have the right to apply for bail under Tanzania’s Criminal Procedure Act.

Prosecutors explained that the charges do not relate to the constitutional reform forum Chadema had planned to hold in Mwanza, but to alleged offences dating from 2020 in another part of the country.

“Moments like this take Tanzania a step backwards,” said James Mbatia, leader of the NCCR-Mageuzi opposition party. “The president’s wisdom is needed so that we move forward,” he added.

The international community were also alarmed at developments. “We have expressed our concern about the treatment and imprisonment of the opposition leader Mbowe,” said Victoria Nuland, US Under-Secretary for Political Affairs. Nuland was speaking at the end of a visit to Tanzania during which she met President Samia Suluhu Hassan and the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Liberata Mulamula, as well as opposition leaders, part of a tour of several African countries.

Human rights group Amnesty International called on the Tanzania government to “substantiate the charges” against Mbowe or to release him. “His arrest and continued detention appears to be a tactic to silence critical voices as part of a growing crackdown against the political opposition,” they added.

On the occasion of his first court appearance, in early August, riot police broke up a demonstration by Mbowe supporters. They held banners “Mbowe is not a terrorist” and “Free Freeman Mbowe”.

“Freeman Mbowe, parliamentarian for 15 years, leader of the official opposition in parliament for 10 years and head of the largest legal opposition party for 17 years is not a terrorist,” said Tundu Lissu, Chadema’s deputy chairman.

Amid tight security, the trial at the high court in Dar-es-Salaam opened on August 31st. Most journalists were banned from the courtroom by police.

The government had warned foreign diplomats against turning up to the court to follow the case without notifying the foreign ministry, citing Covid-19 regulations and security concerns. Nevertheless, representatives from the British High Commission and US Embassy were present at the hearing, which was also attended by Chadema’s senior leaders.

Chadema have described the case as a throwback to the repressive era of President Magufuli, and said it represented the loss of hope that the new President would sweep away many of her predecessor’s restrictions on democratic political activity.

In a pre-trial hearing, Mbowe’s lawyers had argued that his initial arrest and detention had been unlawful, as he and his co-accused had been held for five days without being charged or being able to see his lawyers. “They told the court that they were tortured and humiliated and forced to record such statements,” said Mbowe’s lawyer, Peter Kibatala, after the hearing. He added that “These were not voluntary statements.” The court dismissed these objections and allowed that the trial should proceed.

Chadema has said prosecutors accuse Mbowe of conspiring to attack a public official, and of giving 600,000 Tanzanian shillings ($260/220 euros) towards blowing up petrol stations and public gatherings and cutting down trees to block roads.

STOP PRESS: As the trial began in early September, Regional Police Commander for Kinondoni (Dar es Salaam), Ramadhani Kingai, told the court that Freeman Mbowe had sought to recruit retired or expelled army commandos to carry out acts of terrorism in various part of Tanzania. He claimed that Mbowe and a group of others were planning to blow up fuel stations and markets and block vehicles on highways so that they could conduct robberies. He also claimed that the alleged criminal group planned to carry out these acts in the run up to the 2020 general election, with the intention of showing that Tanzania was ungovernable.

At the time of writing, the case has been adjourned to allow for a hearing on whether statements taken from the accused outside the 8-hour time limit for cautioned statements should be admissible.

by Ben Taylor

Among the many changes to Tanzania’s political landscape brought about by the change in top-level leadership, second only to Covid in prominence is perhaps the revival of debates about the country’s constitution. President Magufuli had made it clear that he had no intention of revisiting the topic, but perhaps President Samia Suluhu Hassan would see things differently. As a Zanzibari, she would certainly be expected to have a different perspective on the matter.

This was certainly the hope of both the two main opposition parties, ACT Wazalendo (with its weighty former-CUF contingent – see previous issues) and Chadema. Almost as soon as President Hassan was sworn into office, they began calling for a new constitution review process. The Chadema leader, Freeman Mbowe, publicly stated in May that his party would boycott the next general elections in 2025 unless a new constitution is in place.

“I have told Madam Samia that the constitution is not a personal issue but for the country and we will demand and fight for it with blood and sweat so that we get it before the General Election in 2025,” he said. It remains unclear what response she gave, but it certainly seemed to encourage the opposition parties that the change of President had opened a door to the possibility.

The most recent efforts to rewrite the country’s mother law had stalled in 2015, when time ran out on preparations for a referendum on a constitution drafted over the previous few years. President Kikwete’s second term of office came to an end in November of 2015, and President Magufuli saw no reason to move forward with what had become a very controversial matter, so the “proposed constitution” has never been put to a public vote. Nor was the “Warioba draft”, prepared by the Constitutional Review Commission under the leadership of former Prime Minister Joseph Warioba.

The two competing versions represent the controversy in the case. The Warioba draft proposed a substantive change to the relationship between Zanzibar and the rest of the country, with a “three government structure” comprising governments of Zanzibar, mainland Tanzania, and the United Republic. This was popular with the public on Zanzibar, including many CCM members and supporters, and with all the main opposition parties. Under President Kikwete’s guidance, however, this version was substantially edited late in the process by members of the CCM-dominated Constituent Assembly. The redrafting replaced the three government structure with something much more similar to the current two-government arrangements, motivated by concerns that the three-government approach was a ruse to split the union. It was this edited version that was set to be put to a public referendum in 2015, with results that looked set to be too close to predict.

The relationship between Zanzibar and mainland Tanzania is not the only issue prompting opposition parties to call for change. Chadema and ACT Wazalendo would each like to see changes that trim the powers of the Presidency, provide a strong and independent foundation for key bodies such as the National Electoral Commission and the judiciary, and strengthen protections for freedom of expression, freedom of assembly and freedom of association.

Nevertheless, the two competing visions for the country’s future governance, as represented by the two draft constitutions, present a serious sticking point for restarting discussions: which version should be brought back to the table? Positions on the two drafts have been deeply entrenched, and finding a way forward that allows all parties to sit together and consolidate them will not be easy.

“The President should own the process and pick a team of experts who will harmonize issues from the Second Draft Constitution and those in the Proposed Constitution,” according to Deus Kibamba of the Tanzania Constitution Forum, a civil society group.

Nor will it be easy to reach agreement that such a process should even be attempted. CCM secretary of Ideology and Publicity Shaka Hamdu Shaka, said in June that constitutional matters were not the party’s priority, that instead the ruling party was focused on national development.

President Samia Suluhu Hassan made her views on the matter known on June 28, arguing that the issue should wait so that she could have more time to guide the country to a full economic recovery from the Coronavirus pandemic. She used the term “chokochoko” (provocations) to describe the calls.

Warioba had thoughts on this: “The President has asked to be given more time, it is true, I agree, but until when? I think it is upon leaders themselves to agree on when the process of a new constitution should continue.” He suggested a referendum could be held concurrently with local government elections scheduled for late 2024.

“My advice is that these leaders should meet not to confront one another, but to have discussions on the problems facing the country: on how we deal with the Coronavirus, on a new constitution, on how we can boost our economy,” he suggested.

by Ben Taylor

The UK Minister for Africa, James Duddridge, met and held talks with President Samia Suluhu Hassan and Foreign Minister Liberata Mulamula on a visit to Tanzania at the start of June. The Minister also travelled to Zanzibar to meet with President Hussein Mwinyi and First Vice-President Othman Masoud Sharif, to discuss the Government of National Unity and the progress being made on political reconciliation.

In a meeting with the Minister for Industry and Trade, Kitila Mkumbo, and Minister for Investment, Geoffrey Mwambe, Mr Duddridge discussed the potential for increased UK investment in Tanzania and sought reassurances that improvements to Tanzania’s business environment would be implemented.

Mr Duddridge also visited sites where UK aid has delivered improvements to schools and hospitals.

Speaking at the end of the visit, Duddridge said he was “pleased that my first visit to Tanzania since the inauguration of President Samia Suluhu Hassan has been productive and mutually beneficial. I welcomed the President’s commitments on international cooperation, working with the business sector and seeking advice from Tanzanian experts on COVID-19 and I encouraged decisive action to tackle the effects of the pandemic in Tanzania. I look forward to engaging further as these areas progress.”

British High Commissioner to Tanzania, David Concar said “the visit of a UK Minister to Zanzibar after many years to assess progress in the unity government is an important reminder of the rich historic relationship between the UK and the islands, and demonstrates the UK’s desire to see sustained progress towards an inclusive, representative Zanzibar governed for all.”

by Ben Taylor

President John Pombe Magufuli has died, at the age of 61. He is succeeded by his Vice President, Samia Suluhu Hassan, the country’s first female President, who was sworn in on March 19th, 2021. “This is a time to bury our differences, and be one as a nation,” she said in her inaugural address as leader.

The months of March and April 2021 were a rollercoaster ride for Tanzania. From a few days after the last public appearance of President John Pombe Magufuli on February 27th, to the first State of the Nation address to parliament of President Samia Suluhu Hassan on April 22nd, the nation was beset with a chaotic mix of rumours, tension, drama, mourning and, for some, elation. The full details of what happened during some critical episodes remain uncertain at this time, and may well continue to be disputed by historians and others for many years to come.

The most important facts are known: that President Magufuli passed away, five months into his second term in office, and that his Vice President, Samia Suluhu Hassan, is the new President of Tanzania.

The uncertainty remains in many of the details of how this took place. Rumours began circulating a week into March that President Magufuli had been taken ill. He had not been seen in public for several days, which was unusual but not unprecedented for him. These rumours extended to suggestions that he had contracted the Coronavirus and was suffering severe symptoms. It remains uncertain whether such rumours were based in truth or founded largely on the irony of the idea that a Covid-sceptic President could face such a scenario.

On March 10th, a Kenyan newspaper, The Daily Nation (part of the same media group that owns The Citizen and Mwananchi newspapers in Tanzania, and The East African) put oil on the fire of these rumours. They published an article reporting that an “African leader” was at that time admitted to Nairobi Hospital for Covid-19 treatment, stopping short of naming the leader or the country but hinting very heavily that this was President Magufuli.

Whether the President was indeed admitted to hospital in Nairobi remains uncertain. Senior figures in government, including Prime Minister Kassim Majaliwa, certainly denied this fact. The credibility of their denials is hard to judge, however, given that they also denied that the President was unwell. The Prime Minister asked Tanzanians to be calm because “President John Magufuli is safe and he is going about his work,” and accused “hateful Tanzanians living abroad” of spreading rumours. “If he were sick,” he asked, “would I have spoken to him on the telephone? He sent his greetings to you.”

Beyond reporting such reassurances, Tanzanian media stayed almost entirely silent on the health and whereabouts of President Magufuli at this time. In contrast, international media outlets – the BBC, Al Jazeera, Reuters, and many more – covered the matter eagerly, quoting unnamed sources and reporting every utterance of opposition leader, Tundu Lissu, as he made a series of bold and largely evidence-free assertions about the situation. The President had already died, according to some rumours, or had been transferred to a hospital in India, or South Africa. The President’s closest allies were alleged to be taking advantage of the power vacuum to loot the national gold reserves and/or the Bank of Tanzania.

The audience for international media houses within Tanzania may be small, but rumours spread rapidly, particularly on WhatsApp and similar services.

On March 15th, Vice President Samia Suluhu Hassan urged Tanzanians not to be unnerved by “rumours flying around”, saying “the country was safe”. “It’s quite normal for a person’s body to be indisposed and contract the flu or develop a fever… this is the time for Tanzanians to be united through prayer,” she said, without stating who she was talking about. “As Tanzanians, we must work together, be united and build our nation. Most of the rumours you hear don’t originate in Tanzania, they come from outside the country. I ask you to ignore them. If it’s about prayers, pray, but all in all, we should remain united and take Tanzania forward. We’re safe,” she said.

On the same day, The Citizen newspaper reported that police across the country had continued “crackdowns on those spreading false information, especially on social media platforms.” They noted reports that police in Kilimanjaro region were holding two people on suspicion of spreading false information on social media concerning senior government officials’ health. “This brings the number of suspects arrested in connection with spreading online fabricated information related to the health of President John Magufuli to four,” the paper stated.

Two days later, on March 17th, the Vice President made a short statement live on the state-run TBC TV station. Visibly distressed, she announced that President Magufuli had died at 6pm that evening at Mzena hospital in Dar es Salaam. He had been admitted, she stated, on March 6th to the Jakaya Kikwete Heart Institute after suffering complications related to his long-standing heart condition, chronic atrial fibrillation, but had been released the following day. A week later, on March 14th, he had felt unwell and was admitted to Mzena hospital, where he remained until his death three days later.

Reactions: grief, tributes, and a few celebrations
Vice President Hassan announced fourteen days of national mourning. Huge crowds of mourners lined the streets and flocked to see his body lying in state in the cities of Dar es Salaam, Dodoma, Zanzibar, Mwanza and Geita, weeping and throwing petals as it passed in a motorcade.

In one tragic case, 45 mourners were killed and 37 injured due to stampedes and lack of air amid overcrowding at a public viewing of the body at Uhuru stadium in Dar es Salaam, on March 21st. This was confirmed by Lazaro Mambosasa, Dar es Salaam’s zonal police commander. The stampede was triggered when a wall collapsed after some people climbed it to get a better view, according to Mr Mambosasa.

President Magufuli was buried in the evening of March 26th at his home in Chato, in northwest Tanzania. His body arrived at Rubambagwe Stadium, Chato, mid-morning, and he was honoured with the singing of the national anthem and East African anthem, and a 21-gun salute. A Catholic mass was conducted by the Archbishop Gervas John Nyaisonga, and his body was transferred to his home for burial. President Samia Suluhu Hassan, ex-presidents Ali Hassan Mwinyi and Jakaya Kikwete, other dignitaries and religious leaders from different faiths were in attendance.

It is hard to assess the true level of President Magufuli’s popularity with Tanzanians, as the usual measures were all compromised. The general election in 2020, in which he won 84% of the vote, was marred by irregularities, and opinion polling had been suspended – effectively banned – since a poll published in 2018 suggested his popularity had fallen sharply from previous record highs. And yet there is no doubt that among many, probably most Tanzanians, President Magufuli was a hero: for speaking for ordinary citizens, for standing up to foreign business interests and governments, for rooting out corruption and waste, and for investing in the country’s future.

“I have never cried because of any leader’s death, but President Magufuli has made me cry because I remember his good performance,” said Lucky Mwandeko, a resident of Dar es Salaam. “He brought discipline to the country. We have lost a very great leader.”

Equally, there are some who saw President Magufuli as a villain: that his stance on the Coronavirus pandemic had cost lives, that he showed little respect for the rule of law or freedom of expression, that his hardball tactics with investors undermined the country’s economy, that his misogyny turned back the clock on the cause of gender equality, that he subjected his political opponents to imprisonment and violence, that he systematically weakened democracy and democratic institutions.

Among Tanzanians, the foremost such voice belongs to the opposition leader Tundu Lissu. Speaking from exile in Belgium, he described President Magufuli’s death as “poetic justice,” alleging that he succumbed to COVID-19 after defying the world and science on the virus. “Magufuli caused havoc to our country,” he said. “There are so many people who have been killed in these five years, … injured, tortured, persecuted. I barely escaped with my life. He is dead and this is an opportunity, a rare opportunity, for our country to come together for national reconciliation,” he said.

International media obsessed over the thought that a Covid-denier might have succumbed to Covid. “Bulldozed by reality,” was the headline in The Economist.

A more nuanced view came from political columnist Elsie Eyakuze, no fan of the late President. “Dear John, I forgive you,” she wrote. “Death has robbed us of the leader you might have become if our prayers had been answered.”

“I can admit that I thought news of your demise would delight me. … It turns out I was wrong. My relief that your misogyny and cruelty will no longer weigh upon my mind is real and will remain with me forever. But I did not expect to feel sad. I did not expect to feel a bit bereft, slightly melancholy. I certainly did not expect to be moved when I watched your casket being opened for public viewing as your friends and family, who clearly cared for you, shed tears. I did not expect to attend mass via television not once, but twice, and genuinely pray that your Lord would have mercy on your soul.”

“Cause of death? Frankly, my dear, I don’t give a damn. I do care that you did not die alone. John, I truly hope that someone held your hand with comfort and tenderness to the very end, that you were not afraid, that you were not in pain. Foolish, weak-hearted, stupid woman that I am, I hope you passed on peacefully.”

Ben Taylor

President Samia Suluhu Hassan was sworn into office as President on March 19th, 2021. She becomes Tanzania’s sixth President and the country’s first female President. She will serve the remainder of President Magufuli’s second term to 2025, and under the Constitution will be eligible to run for one further five-year term.

“Today I have taken an oath different from the rest that I have taken in my career,” she said. “Those were taken in happiness. Today I took the highest oath of office in mourning.”

The symbolism of having a female, hijab-wearing head of state was widely noted at the time of her swearing-in, with observers noting also the prominent all-female front line of military band drummers that danced their way through the parade, and spotting that the aide-de­camp standing close throughout the process was also a woman.

President Hassan is also the country’s first president born in Zanzibar – in Makunduchi, in January 1960. (President Mwinyi was also Zanzibari, but born on the mainland.) She completed her secondary education in 1977 and began her career as a clerk at Zanzibar’s Ministry of Planning and Development. The following year she married Hafidh Ameir, an agricultural officer, now retired, with whom she has four children. She pursued a number of short-courses on a part-time basis, before graduating in 1986 from the Institute of Development Management (present-day Mzumbe University) with an advanced diploma in public administration. Between 1992 and 1994, she attended the University of Manchester, UK, and earned a postgraduate diploma in economics, and in 2015, she obtained an MSc in Community Economic Development via a joint-programme between the Open University of Tanzania and the Southern New Hampshire University.

After spells with the World Food Programme and Action Aid, she turned to politics in 2000. She was elected as a special seats member of the Zanzibar House of Representatives and was appointed a minister by President Amani Karume, the only high-ranking woman minister in the cabinet. In 2010, she sought election to parliament, winning the Makunduchi seat comfortably. President Kikwete appointed her as Minister of State for Union Affairs, and in 2014, she served as Vice Chair of the Constituent Assembly tasked with drafting the country’s new constitution.

President Hassan takes office without her political views and personality having previous been widely known. Before her selection as the CCM vice-presidential candidate in 2015 she had been a relatively obscure figure on the national political stage, and as Vice President she had largely aligned herself behind the President, though she showed an independent streak in choosing to visit opposition leader Tundu Lissu in hospital after an assassination attempt, against the President’s wishes.

January Makamba – himself a former (and likely future) presidential aspirant – described her as “the most underrated politician in the country”. And since taking office, she has demonstrated considerable dynamism and skill in negotiating a potentially difficult transition. In a series of speeches, appointments and pronouncements, she managed both to reassure supporters of the former President that she would continue to follow the path he laid down and to indicate to his critics that her approach would be different in significant ways.

In several closely watches speeches shortly after taking office she gave a sense of her direction as President, taking actions and laying out a long list of pledges and priorities. In combination, these speeches signalled three major changes of direction compared to her predecessor.

First, and most prominently, she showed her intention to improve the environment for business and foreign investment. She directed the Tanzania Revenue Authority (TRA) to stop frustrating businesses by milking them dry and instead look for new ways on how to expand the tax base. “Using a lot of force in collection of tax, closing taxpayers’ bank accounts, forcefully taking money from their accounts, just because the law allows you to do so, is unacceptable,” she stated. For similar reasons, she directed the immigration authorities to stop frustrating investors by limiting number of non-Tanzanian staff. And she directed Ministers find a lasting solution to the bureaucracy on tax matters that was frustrating investors, saying it was disheartening that VAT refunds were not being made as required. (See also Economics section in this issue.)

Second, she signalled a more open and pro-democratic approach to politics. She directed the Information Ministry to lift bans imposed on some media outlets, and announced her intention to meet with opposition leaders to resolve disagreements about the political environment. She directed the corruption watchdog (PCCB) to concentrate on its key responsibilities and to drop “baseless” cases – interpreted by some as code for “politically motivated cases”.

Third, she announced the formation of a committee of scientists to assess the state of the Coronavirus pandemic in Tanzania and propose a way forward. This could be a move to prepare the ground for a change in the government’s response to the pandemic, though it should be noted that the committee is yet to report and the President is yet to introduce substantive reform in this area. (See also article on the pandemic, in this issue.)

In terms of appointments, President Hassan nominated respected Finance Minister, Philip Mpango as the new Vice President. His nomination was unanimously endorsed by MPs. Other changes include the nomination of Liberata Mulamula as an MP and as Foreign Minister, replacing Prof Palamagamba Kabudi who now takes over as Minister of Justice and Constitutional Affairs. Mwigulu Nchemba, the former Minister for Justice and Constitutional Affairs now becomes the Minister of Finance and Planning. Ummy Mwalimu becomes the Minister in the President’s Office for Regional Administration and Local Government, swapping roles with Jafo Selemani who now serves as Minister of State in the Vice President’s Office.

Most strikingly, the former CCM General Secretary and close ally of President Magufuli, Bashiru Ally, has been removed as Chief Secretary just one month after his appointment. His position is taken by Tanzania’s Ambassador to Japan, Hussein Athuman Katanga.

For sad and unexpected reasons, Tanzania’s institutions of government were tested in this period, but came through, completing another peaceful, constitutional transfer of power. The next test is for the new President. She has a weak base in the party and a divided nation, but after just a few weeks in office she has already shown signs of a deft political touch. We wish her the best.

What’s in a name? President Samia, President Hassan, or Mama?
As yet, no clear consensus has emerged on what name to use for the new President. Most Tanzanian newspapers refer to her as “President Samia” or “Rais Samia”. Some have also used “President Hassan,” which has been the most common choice of international media. Previously, both as Vice President and before, she was generally known as “Samia Suluhu”.

Some in Tanzania have adopted “Mama”, or “Mama Samia”, though this has also drawn criticism for disrespecting the new President, and/or fostering a maternal image that may or may not prove to be appropriate.

Standard naming practice in Zanzibar is personal name + father’s personal name + grandfather’s personal name. This is not adhered to by all, however, as many in practice use just the first two parts – hence Samia Suluhu. And some with well-known fathers may choose to use the third part of their father’s name as the third part of their own: so (former President) Ali Hassan Mwinyi’s son, the current President of Zanzibar, retains “Mwinyi” and becomes President Hussein Ali Mwinyi (rather than Hussein Ali Hassan).

Here in Tanzanian Affairs, we will follow the lead shown by the President’s Office, which is referring to the new president as either President Hassan, or President Samia Suluhu Hassan. We will do likewise unless and until it becomes clear that a different form of her name becomes the consensus choice.