by Ben Taylor

Magufuli and CCM win big in disputed election
The various presidential, parliamentary and local government elections that took place in Tanzania on October 28, 2020, resulted in a resounding victory for the ruling party CCM and President Magufuli, though opposition parties cried foul, with some strong evidence to back up their claims.

Results as announced
In the vote for President of Tanzania, President Magufuli was announced as the winner with 84% of the vote, well ahead of the leading opposition party candidate, Tundu Lissu of Chadema, with 13%. None of the other 13 candidates achieved more than 1%. President Magufuli’s vote share rose from 58% in 2015. 14.8 million votes were cast, out of 29.8 million registered voters, representing a turnout of 50.7%.

In the parliamentary elections, out of 264 constituency seats, CCM candidates won in 256, leaving just four constituency MPs representing ACT Wazalendo, three from CUF and one from Chadema. This includes just two seats were won by opposition candidates on mainland Tanzania – one each from CUF and Chadema.

This almost total wipe-out of opposition MPs included several prominent voices in parliament and in public debate over the past five years. Freeman Mbowe, Joseph Mbilinyi, Halima Mdee, Ester Bulaya, Rev Peter Msigwa and Godbless Lema of Chadema, Zitto Kabwe of ACT and James Mbatia of NCCR Mageuzi all lost their seats.

In addition, votes cast for the party entitled Chadema to a further 19 “special seats” MPs – nominated women MPs allocated proportion to the votes cast for each party’s presidential candidate. In the same way, CCM was allocated 95 special seats MPs. Overall, CCM has 351 seats (93%) and opposition parties have a combined 27. In comparison, after the election in 2015, opposition parties held 114 seats.

Both ACT and Chadema initially declared that their MPs would not take up their seats in parliament, in protest at what they described as a fraudulent election (see below). Later, after heated debates within the parties, most of these MPs have taken up their seats.

For President of Zanzibar, the CCM candidate, Dr Hussein Mwinyi was announced the winner with 76% of the vote, with the ACT Wazalendo candidate, Maalimu Seif Sharif Hamad in second place with 20%. This ended a run of Presidential elections in Zanzibar that were either annulled (2015), boycotted by major opposition parties (2000, 2016), or where the CCM Presidential candidates in Zanzibar won extremely narrow victories (1995, 2005, 2010).

Grounds for dispute
Even before election day, opposition parties disputed the process and there were serious grounds for concern. As noted in the previous issue of Tanzanian Affairs, the playing field was far from level during the campaign.

Then, in the days immediately before the election ACT Wazalendo reported that police on Zanzibar had shot and killed at least nine opposition supporters who suspected soldiers of distributing pre-marked ballots, and that more than 100 people were arrested. Similarly, Chadema claimed CCM officials had shot dead two Chadema supports on the mainland. Tanzania’s inspector general of police, Simon Sirro, denied any deaths.

Maalim Seif, the ACT Presidential candidate for Zanzibar was arrested on the morning of election day as he went to cast his vote. Both Chadema and ACT continued to dispute the process as votes were counted and results announced.

Zitto Kabwe, the leader of ACT-Wazalendo, said there were reports of fraud from constituencies across the country, and that party workers had found thousands of ballot papers and large numbers of returning officers’ statements of results that appeared to have been filled in before the vote. One bag was seized when it fell off a lorry. “It was not an election, and the people of Tanzania will pay the price. The international community should not recognise this election or the legitimacy of the government,” Kabwe told The Guardian.

Tundu Lissu, Chadema’s candidate for president said it “was not an election …, it was just a gang of people who have just decided to misuse state machinery to cling to power”. His party alleged ballot boxes were tampered with after its agents were stopped from entering polling stations.

The two parties demanded fresh elections, after denouncing the vote as fraudulent. In a joint news conference, they also called for mass protests.

Seif Sharif Hamad, the opposition ACT-Wazalendo’s presidential candidate in Zanzibar, and other leaders were arrested, his party said, after he called for protests. The party also reported that a member of the party’s Central Committee Ismail Jussa Ladhu was badly beaten by security forces in Zanzibar.

The National Electoral Commission denied allegations of fake ballots, saying they were unofficial and unsubstantiated. Under Tanzanian law, elections results declared by the commission cannot be challenged in court.

International assessments
A combination of the Coronavirus pandemic, pre-existing tensions between the government and the diplomatic community, and a government decision to discourage international observers meant there were fewer observer missions present in Tanzania than in previous elections. The only mission in country represented the East African Community, and concluded that “generally, the Mission is of the view that the Election process was conducted in a credible manner.”

In contrast, other international assessments were damning. The United States Embassy issued a statement noting “serious doubts” about the credibility of the polls, citing “credible allegations of significant election-related fraud and intimidation”. The EU noted the disruption of social media, claims of opposition candidates that they did not benefit from a level playing field during the electoral process, limited possibilities for electoral observation, and concerning reports on irregularities. They concluded that “these serious allegations have an impact on the transparency and overall credibility of the process”.

The UK Minister for Africa, James Duddridge, gave a statement expressing concern at “widespread allegations of interference in the country’s elections, including pre-filled ballot boxes and party agents being denied entry to polling stations. We are also deeply troubled by the reports of violence and heavy-handed policing in the elections, including the arrest of opposition political leaders.”

There was also an East African independent election monitoring initiative, Tanzania Elections Watch (TEW), formed as “one of the last few remedies available in the absence of independent oversight of the elections in Tanzania,” designed to bring regional and international civil society and others together to critically debate key developments as they unfold. They noted that the electoral commission “does not pass the basic tests of an independent and impartial election management body”, and that the vote “marked the most significant backsliding in Tanzania’s democratic credentials”. They concluded that the process “falls way below the acceptable international standards” for holding free and fair elections.

Post-election tensions
The initial response to the elections from opposition parties was – as seen above – to cry foul. They also called for nationwide protests. Hampered in part by widespread disruption to internet access that remained an issue, intermittently, for several weeks, and deterred by heavy police presence on the streets, this protest movement failed to materialise in any significant way.

Tundu Lissu sought refuge at the German Embassy in Dar es Salaam after receiving death threats. He then left the country, with the assistance of diplomats, and has returned to exile in Belgium, where he previously spent several years receiving treatment for gunshot wounds after an assassination attempt in 2017.

Moments before his flight departed for Brussels on Tuesday, Lissu spoke with reporters. “Diplomats from Germany, Belgium, the United States and other countries have negotiated with the Tanzanian government to allow me to leave the country safely,” he said. “The threats against me kept increasing after the Tanzanian presidential election and I decided to leave the country.”

“I am also going to Europe with a political mission,” he added. I want to speak with the international community about what happened during the recent election, and what it means for Tanzania and the rest of the world”

Opposition parties struggled with the dilemma of whether engaging with the new administration would legitimise the election. Initially, both Chadema and ACT Wazalendo leaderships announced that their MPs would not take up their seats in parliament, but these decisions were later revised. In Zanzibar, where the constitution requires that the two largest parties form a national unity government, ACT debated whether to join CCM, and finally concluded that they should do so, for the sake of peace – “to give dialogue a chance”. As such, in addition to the swearing in of Hussein Mwinyi as the new President of Zanzibar, Maalim Seif Sharif Hamad was sworn in as First Vice President of Zanzibar on December 8th.
President Magufuli was sworn in for a second term as President of Tanzania on November 5th.

Looking forwards
The prospects have faded for either an opposition-led protest movement taking shape or international pressure forcing concessions by the government. Instead, these elections look set to mark a serious further deterioration in Tanzania’s relations with those parts of the international community that value democracy, and the country now faces a new political landscape going forwards.

Most obviously, parliamentary debates and scrutiny look set to be significantly weakened, with fewer opposition MPs present and with experienced and outspoken figures such as Zitto Kabwe and Freeman Mbowe now lacking a platform. In turn, this will weaken other critical voices in the media, civil society, and reduce space for public debate still further. For the next five years at least, then, there would seem to be little prospect of a democratic recovery.

Beyond that, the great uncertainty remains the question of whether President Magufuli will seek to amend the constitution in order to remove or extend term limits. Currently, the constitution places a two-term limit on presidents, and President Magufuli has always insisted that he has no desire or intention to change this. However, observers have noted that senior party figures close to the President have voiced the idea several times over the past five years. CCM’s overwhelming dominance in the new parliament would also make such an amendment relatively easy to push through.

When President Nyerere stepped down in 1985, he established a precedent for peaceful and orderly transition of power. Presidential term limits were brought in, and four successive transitions since appeared to demonstrate that in Tanzania this constitutional mechanism would be respected. This could well be tested over the coming years as never before.

by Ben Taylor

General election looms large
With Presidential and Parliamentary elections scheduled for 28th October 2020, the political atmosphere has been tense over recent weeks and months. President Magufuli of the ruling CCM party is seeking re­election for a second five-year term that, under the current constitution, will be his final term. He is opposed by two main opposition candidates; Tundu Lissu of Chadema and Bernard Membe of ACT Wazalendo.

Introducing the candidates
Tundu Lissu is the former president of the Tanganyika Law Society and outspoken critic of President Magufuli. He drew international headlines in September 2017 when he was shot multiple times in daylight by unknown assailants outside his home near the Parliament in Dodoma. To date, nobody has been arrested or charged in connection with the attack. Lissu was airlifted to Nairobi and later to Belgium where he spent nearly three years recovering. He returned to Tanzania in July 2020.

Since 2010, Chadema has been Tanzania’s leading opposition party, at least in mainland Tanzania (CUF has been the largest in Zanzibar), and its presidential candidates, Dr Wilbroad Slaa in 2010 and Edward Lowassa in 2015, achieved vote shares of 27% and 40% respectively. Neither Dr Slaa nor former Prime Minister Lowassa have stayed with Chadema. Lissu has been a prominent party figure since entering formal politics in 2010, acting for much of this time as the party’s legal affairs spokesman, and throughout as a prominent and vocal critic of the gov­ernment.

Bernard Membe is a former Minister of Foreign Affairs (2007-2015) under President Kikwete. He unsuccessfully sought the CCM nomi­nation for the Presidency in 2015. After losing out on that position to Magufuli, he did not seek re-election as an MP. Over the past five years he has been an occasional but largely underground critic of the President. He was expelled from the party in February 2020, either because he had “violated the party’s ethics and constitution” (according to the party’s Central Committee) or to prevent him from challenging the sitting President for the party’s nomination this year (according to Membe himself).

Shortly after this, he joined ACT Wazalendo, bringing him together with two other political heavyweights in the form of the party’s founder and leader, Zitto Kabwe, and former CUF leader and former Vice President of Zanzibar, Maalim Seif Sharif Hamad.

President Magufuli will be well known to readers by now. He is no stranger to controversy, having attracted considerable international criticism for his tightening of restrictions on the media, civil society, freedom of expression and opposition political parties. He has also attracted criticism for his handling of the economy, with some respected observers recently suggesting that the economy is in a worse condition than the government claims (see Economics section, this issue).

Nevertheless, the President is thought to remain very popular with the general public. He is seen as hard working, dedicated to fighting corruption and getting a better deal for the country from foreign inves­tors. And he has delivered some high-profile projects over the first five years of his presidency, including several new aircraft for a revived Air Tanzania airline, progress on road and bridge building, rail upgrading, and power generation.

Zanzibar
In the isles, the election dynamics will be quite different from the main­land. This has always been the case in the past, where close results, contested results and evidence of manipulated results have been the norm on Zanzibar, ever since multiparty democracy was reintroduced in 1995.

Voters will cast votes both for the President of Tanzania and the President of Zanzibar, but the focus of the campaigns will lie primarily on the latter. In this case, there will be no incumbent as the current president, Ali Mohammed Shein of CCM, is ineligible to run for a third term. Two candidates to replace him are prominent: Hussein Mwinyi of CCM and Seif Sharif Hamad of ACT Wazalendo. And there is a third candidate with little chance of winning but who could nevertheless disrupt the result: Mussa Haji Kombo of CUF.

Hussein Mwinyi is the son of former Tanzanian president, Ali Hassan Mwinyi. He has been an MP since 2000 and has held various ministerial positions over the past twenty years. Most recently, he has been Tanzania’s Minister of Defence since 2014. He won the party’s nomination easily with 79% of the vote.

Seif will contest the Zanzibar Presidency for the sixth time, but for the first time with ACT Wazalendo. His previous campaigns were all under the CUF banner, though he was forced to quit CUF in early 2019 after a power struggle with the party’s former national presidential candidate, Ibrahim Lipumba. However, although he lost the battle for control of CUF with Lipumba, he is widely seen as having won the war, as the vast majority of CUF members and elected officials joined Seif in moving to ACT Wazalendo, either at the same time or in the run up to this year’s campaign. In many cases they even took party offices and furniture with them, arguing that these belonged to individual party members who had let the party use them, rather than to the party itself. As a result, Seif will be the main challenger to CCM.

In contrast, the CUF candidate, Mussa Haji Kombo, is a relative unknown with little following across the isles, who is unlikely to attract more than a few less-engaged voters. Nevertheless, this could perhaps dilute the opposition vote. Given the tight results in previous Zanzibar elections, even a small dilution effect could be enough to affect the result. Indeed, some analysts (and many in ACT Wazalendo) see this as the main reason for the Lipumba faction’s takeover of CUF – that it represents a CCM dirty-tricks effort to divide and weaken the opposition on Zanzibar.

With the official campaigns due to start imminently at the time of writing (September 3rd), there are already signs that the election on Zanzibar will not be entirely free and fair. For example, the number of registered voters has fallen by over 10% compared to 2015. It is claimed that as many as 120,000 potential new voters who turned 18 since 2015 were unable to register due to problems getting Zanzibar identity cards. Further, many – perhaps most – ACT Wazalendo candidates on the isles have had their eligibility challenged by other candidates, including Seif Sharif Hamad himself, largely for minor administrative irregularities, such as using the party’s abbreviated name rather than the full name.

STOP PRESS: As of September 12th, the Zanzibar Electoral Commission cleared Mr Hamad’s candidacy, rejecting the objections that had been raised.

The prospect for opposition parties
Many of the same issues around candidate eligibility and voter registra­tion apply also in mainland Tanzania. Candidates have had eligibility challenged for issues as minor as entering DSM as their residence rather than spelling out Dar es Salaam in full.

Unresolved opposition concerns about the independence of the National Electoral Commission (NEC) lie at the heart of much of this. The controversial 2019 local elections and recent parliamentary and council by-elections, in which many candidates were disqualified even before the campaign began, undermined opposition confidence that NEC would act as an impartial adjudicator. In some cases, however, that experience seems to have prepared opposition parties for this campaign, with candidates going the extra mile to ensure their nomination forms are accepted and parties having legal teams on standby to deal with issues as they arise. Despite this, the CCM Secretary General announced at the end of August that in 18 constituencies, CCM candidates were elected unopposed as all opposition candidates had been disqualified.

In 2015, the major opposition parties joined forces to some extent, running a single candidate for each position so as not to split the opposition vote. That has not happened this time, and ACT and Chadema candidates are likely to draw voters away from each other, both at constituency and presidential level.

Taking a step back, the broader context is likely to make the election a difficult one for opposition party candidates, both at presidential and parliamentary levels. Many political party meetings and rallies have been disrupted or prevented from taking place over the past few years, making it hard for opposition parties to organise themselves and to build public support. Most prominent opposition figures have also spent much of the last three years fighting legal battles, and many have spent time in prison. Policing has become increasingly politicised. Clampdowns on media freedoms and freedom of expression have also created an environment in which newspaper editors and TV and radio producers know that any sign of coverage that criticises the government could lead to a suspension or ban, with potentially severe financial consequences. Even without the government making use of new powers in laws enacted since 2015, many in the media would prefer to err on the side of caution. [See previous issues for details.]

The prospects for CCM
The first previous Tanzanian president to contest re-election since the re-introduction of multiparty democracy, Benjamin Mkapa in 2000, won an increased share of the vote – from 62% to 72%. The second, Jakaya Kikwete in 2010, saw his share decline sharply – from 80% to 63%. In 2015, President Magufuli won with a lower vote share than any of his predecessors: 58%. On the face of it, this looks like he might be more vulnerable than either Mkapa in 2000 or Kikwete in 2010.

Nevertheless, while President Magufuli has drawn strong criticism from opposition politicians, pro-democracy activists both within the country and beyond, western diplomats and western media, he is thought to remain popular among the general population.

The President and CCM can point to a record of some attention-grabbing achievements. In launching his party’s campaign at a rally in Dodoma, President Magufuli said, “I have done a lot and you all are witnesses to this. I’m now asking for your vote to sustain the momentum and deliver new more.”

He listed some of the flagship projects he championed in the past five years as including the construction of standard gauge railway, the Julius Nyerere Hydropower Project at Stiegler’s Gorge that will produce up to 2,115 MW, the increased of number of students joining university and who benefit from study loans, a clampdown on corruption and waste, and the revitalisation of the national airline, ATCL. He has pointed to the country’s new status as a middle-income country (see Economics section, this issue). And he also claimed that energy access has improved from 35% to 85%. “We will keep on taking measures to reduce poverty by stressing on sectors such as agriculture, tourism and mining which employ more people,” he said.

The party’s manifesto highlights six key aims to build on these suc­cesses, namely:
i. to protect and strengthen the principles of human dignity, equality, justice and good governance in order to maintain peace, unity and solidarity in the country
ii. to develop a modern, integrated and competitive economy built on the basis of manufacturing, economic services and infrastruc­ture
iii. to revolutionize agriculture, livestock and fisheries to ensure food security and sustainable livelihoods and contribute fully to the development of our country
iv. to enhance access to quality health care, education, water, electric­ity and decent housing in both rural and urban areas
v. to encourage the use of research, science, technology and innova­tion as a tool for rapid social and economic development
vi. to create at least eight million jobs in the formal and informal sectors especially for youth.

It goes on to list an eye-catching 6,000km of roads to be constructed and surfaced with tarmac in the coming five years. For context, this is roughly the same as the total amount of paved road Tanzania had in 2013. Promised new projects include widening the Dar-Chalinze highway to eight lanes, ten new flyover junctions in Dar es Salaam similar to the one recently opened at the TAZARA junction, and widening of the road between the airport and the city centre.

Possible outcomes
There is no polling data available that can guide observers on this. Those organisations that have conducted credible polls in the past are either unwilling or unable to do so this time, after opinion surveys have become highly politicised in recent years. The head of one such organisation, Twaweza, Aidan Eyakuze, had his nationality questioned and passport seized after a survey in 2018 that showed a decline in the president’s approval rating [Full disclosure: the editor of Tanzanian Affairs and author of this article, Ben Taylor, also works as a consultant for Twaweza]. As a result, the most recent available survey dates from two and a half years before polling day – effectively useless.

The politicised policing and the tight restrictions on the media, oppo­sition parties and freedom of expression more generally may attract both international attention and the ire of the young, educated, urban-dwelling citizens who form the core support of the opposition parties. But for many citizens and voters, these things matter less than jobs, food on the table, schools and health services that function properly, a sense that a leader is on your side, and even a sense of national pride.

The state of the economy is more contentious. Official data paints a positive picture, but other sources suggest the true situation may not be so rosy [see Economics section, this issue]. Voters are more likely to vote according to their own personal economic realities – do they see job opportunities, do they feel food stress, etc. – than any official govern­ment statistics.

The Coronavirus pandemic has largely been neutralised as a factor in this election. While the true state of the outbreak in Tanzania remains unclear, media coverage within the country has almost entirely bought in to the government line that the outbreak has been defeated, and there has not been an overwhelming number of cases on a scale that cannot be dismissed as other issues – pneumonia, heart problems, diabetes, etc. [see next article]. As such, whether or not the pandemic is truly under control in Tanzania, the widespread perception among the public is that it has indeed been dealt with effectively.

Finally, the tightening of democratic space – and possible irregularities in the electoral process itself – do not bode well either for a free and fair election or for the ongoing process of establishing local democratic norms and practices. Further, irregularities and even perceived irregu­larities can both contribute significantly to heightened tensions and the kind of anger than can boil over into unrest. If the police are seen to be supporting one side over another, that could well make the situation worse.

It is not for this publication to issue any endorsements, or even to make a prediction about the results. We do, however, wish the country well as she goes to the polls. May the election be free and fair, and may it be peaceful.

by Ben Taylor

Election year
With the Covid-19 pandemic raging across the globe, any major event scheduled for 2020 is vulnerable to cancellation or postponement, but no such decision has yet been taken with regard to Tanzania’s general elections, set for October. Local councillors, MPs and the President will all be up for re-election.

The subject of possible postponement has come up in the media – including an insightful blogpost by Dr Victoria Lihiru of the Law Department at the Open University of Tanzania that looked at the legality of a delay. Dr Lihiru concluded that it would require a constitutional amendment. The only constitutional provisions allowing for postponement of elections apply only if the country is at war. This would need to be supported by two thirds of MPs.

Nevertheless, the starting assumption must be that the election will go ahead.

Free, fair, open and transparent?
Prior to the arrival of the Coronavirus in Tanzania, the coming elections were at the top of the public agenda. In his annual New Year Sherry Party for diplomats in Tanzania, President Magufuli stressed that the elections would be open, transparent, free and fair.

“A general election is mandatory for any democratic nation like Tanzania. Therefore, the government is determined to embrace justice, transparency and freedom during the election,” he said. He added that the government will allow international agencies and observers to come and monitor the polls.

The assurance came just a few weeks after opposition parties, civil society organisations (CSOs) and the international community concluded that local government elections held last November were not free and fair. The main opposition parties boycotted the election protesting what they termed as unfair disqualification of their nominees.

These same groups reacted to the President’s statement with some scepticism. James Mbatia, national chairman of opposition party NCCR Mageuzi said the President had to delivery on such commitments.

“Making promises is one thing but implementing them is totally different; the President should set the ball rolling,” said Mr Mbatia.

Executive Director of the Legal and Human Rights Centre, Anna Henga, said she welcomed this assurance positively, but added that “in my honest opinion, we still have to address the challenges in the electoral system. For example, Opposition politicians have for a long time complained that our electoral system wasn’t free and fair, while we (CSOs) were locked out of the November 2019 civic polls as well as in some of by-elections held recently, this must be sorted out.” Prof Bakari argued that there were signs that the October general election wouldn’t be free and fair basing on the experience on last November civic polls.

CCM’s Secretariat of Political Affairs and International Relations director, Ngemela Lubinga, said that since this statement came from the Head of State, all would be well. “The Head of State has never disappointed us. There is no need to worry. Those who are sceptic of his assurance should understand that he will address any challenges before the general election, if there is any,” said Mr Lubinga.

Nevertheless, opposition party’s concerns appeared reasonable in early March, when CCM Secretary General, Dr Bashiru Ally gave an interview in which he stated that ruling parties only had themselves to blame if they failed to use their control of state apparatus to ensure victory at the polls.

“It’s obvious that CCM intends to use state powers in the forthcoming elections,” said General Secretary of Chadema, John Mnyika, in response. Mr Mnyika also pointed to the government’s refusal to listen to calls for reform of the National Electoral Commission (NEC).

Such calls had grown louder since the new year. Another opposition party, ACT Wazalendo, launched a nationwide campaign in March to push for the establishment of a truly independent NEC. This added weight to similar calls already emanating from CSOs and other opposition parties. Chadema wrote to the President in January asking for, among other things, the formation of an autonomous electoral commission.

Former Foreign Secretary, Bernard Membe, who was expelled from CCM in February for perceived disloyalty, in March joined calls for reform of NEC. “I said it in the [CCM] Ethics Committee and let me say it again: The prevailing political climate calls for an electoral commission which is independent, representative and transparent at both the national and district level [sic]. I, therefore, strongly support all the voices to that effect.”

The Prime Minister, Kassim Majaliwa, told Parliament in February this year that the current electoral commission was already “very independent” as he rejected pleas for formation of independent electoral body.

The independence (or otherwise) of the Commission has become a key point of contention, prompted in part by how NEC acted during the 2019 civic polls and in part by the appointment of Dr Wilson Mahera, a perceived CCM-loyalist as Director of NEC in October 2019. Dr Mahera is a known CCM member who has previously vied for positions within CCM leadership at local level. His previous post was as Acting Executive Director of Arusha District Council, before which he served as Associate Professor of Mathematics at the University of Dar es Salaam. No reason was given from removing the previous NEC Director, Dr Athuman Kihamia, who served just over a year.

Chadema, ACT Wazalendo and LHRC all expressed concern at the appointment of Dr Mahera. Chadema have argued that it is unconstitutional, since the constitution prohibits any person who is a member of a political party from being involved in the administration of elections. For a similar reason, in 2019, the High Court ruled that District Executive Directors could no longer act as returning officers in elections, though the decision was later overturned on appeal.

Chadema leaders found guilty
Eight senior figures in Chadema, including the party’s national chair, Freeman Mbowe were found guilty of sedition in early March, and sentenced to a collective total fine of TSh 350 million or to each serve five months in prison. Alongside Mr Mbowe were John Mnyika, Ester Matiko, John Heche, Peter Msigwa, Halima Mdee and Ester Bulaya, all prominent Chadema MPs, the party’s Deputy Secretary for Zanzibar, Salum Mwalimu, and former General Secretary Dr Vincent Mashinji, who had since defected to CCM.
14 Politics

The nine had been charged with offences including unlawful assembly, rioting, and making seditious statements in February 2018 during a by-election campaign in Kinondoni constituency in Dar es Salaam. They had denied the charges.

Chadema started a campaign to raise funds immediately after the magistrate’s pronouncement at the Kisutu Resident Magistrate court. Within days, the funds to pay the fines were raised from supporters and all the leaders were released. CCM members similarly raised funds to secure the release of Dr Mashinji.

Under Tanzanian law, any statement made with the intention to “raise discontent or disaffection amongst people or sections of people of the United Republic” is considered to be seditious.

The other main opposition party, ACT Wazalendo, has also faced similar legal difficulties. In February, the High Court judged that the party’s leader, Zitto Kabwe, had a case to answer for allegedly seditious statements made in October 2018. He is expected to face trial later in the year.

Sim card switch-off
Tightened restrictions on mobile phone sim card registration, enforced from January, led to a massive switch off of improperly registered sim cards.

The Tanzania Communications Regulatory Authority (TCRA) began enforcing guidelines that only people who registered their sim cards using National Identification Authority (Nida) identity cards could continue to use their sim cards. Everyone else had their sim cards disconnected from the network.

However, as not all mobile phone users had a national ID card, this has brought Nida in the spotlight. Long queues were seen at its offices across the country, with some accusing it of inefficiency and mediocrity.

Though the law does not state exactly what forms of identity document are required for sim card registration, a variety of documents such as driving licence, passport and even workers IDs were previously being accepted as proof of identity. But new TCRA guidelines insist that anyone registering a sim card “shall be required to present his Nida ID and fingerprint verification” for the registration.

Large queues of people outside Nida offices trying to obtain ID cards with which to register their sim cards. (Citizen website)

After January 20, the switch off was rolled out gradually. Exact numbers are not yet known, but it is thought that over seven million were disconnected.

The largest mobile phone network in Tanzania, Vodacom Tanzania Plc, issued a profit warning in response to the situation. Around 5 million subscribers (around one third of the firm’s total) did not meet the new registration requirements in time, though many were later able to do so.

“The significant number of barred customers will affect revenue growth. The revenue impact, with the increased compliance cost, will also adversely affect our operating profits,” Vodacom said in their statement.

By Ben Taylor

Are the 2019 local elections a foretaste of 2020?

Police prevent a planned ACT-Wazalendo rally in Mwanga Centre grounds in Kigoma due to “security reasons” (January 2020). Photo – ACT Wazalendo

Chadema cited “mass disqualification of the party’s candidates” as their main reason. “It’s a sham exercise and the level of brazen irregularities cannot be tolerated,” said party chairman, Freeman Mbowe. Similarly, ACT-Wazalendo party leader Zitto Kabwe said his party did not agree with the grounds given by election returning officers for disqualifying their aspirants. Election officials had effectively locked out thousands of opposition candidates over reasons their parties described as flimsy and orchestrated. This include not writing full names, misspellings, blank spaces, improper forms and incorrectly written dates among others. Others could not get forms as officials were found to be unavailable. As a result, even before the boycott, many CCM candidates were standing unopposed.

The diplomatic community, including the US Embassy and UK High Commission expressed their concerns, questioning the credibility of elections without any meaningful opposition participation.

“That is their opinion, but what I know is that the elections were free and fair, and were in line with Tanzanian laws and regulations,” said the Minister of State in the President’s Office for Regional Administration and Local Government, Mr Selemani Jafo.

President Magufuli said the opposition parties exercised their democratic right through boycotting the polls.

Mr Mbowe said it was now the time for a free and independent electoral commission to be established to steer the democratic process away from partisan interests that jeopardise the wellbeing of the nation.

ACT-Wazalendo’s secretary general Dorothy Semu said: “It is time for the opposition parties to join forces to fight against this oppression.”

Dr Aikande Kwayu, an honorary research fellow at the Department of Anthropology, University of Wisconsin Madison, supported the boycott. “It is a strong political statement expressing the disillusionment with how elections are organised,” she said.

However, Dr Richard Mbunda, a political analyst from the University of Dar es Salaam (UDSM), pointed out that no party has ever withdrawn from an electoral process and succeeded in its plans. “An election is like war and those shortcomings are unavoidable. What the opposition needs to do is to fully prepare to become a competitive side. There would be no cancellation of elections. By opting out, they lose legitimacy before the public,” he said. He added that he understood the reasons given by opposition parties but now was the time to focus on preparing for the next election.

Looking forward to 2020, Dr Kwayu is worried by the trend. “Looking at how the events have unfolded, I get some feeling that there might even be no elections in 2020,” she said.

Chadema leaders expressed similar concerns. “If the laws remain the same, what is happening in the civic elections will have disastrous consequences in the general election,” warned Mr Mrema, Chadema’s director of protocol, communications and foreign affairs.

Whether or not opposition parties repeat their boycott in 2020 remains to be seen. However, all the signs are that space for public debate and political campaigns will remain tightly controlled as the election draws nearer.

In early January, police declined permission for ACT Wazalendo to hold a rally in the constituency of party leader, Zitto Kabwe, while CCM were granted permission for a similar event. Along with most prominent leaders of both ACT Wazalendo and Chadema, Mr Kabwe remains distracted (or more) by ongoing court cases against them.

In September, for example, The Kisutu Resident Magistrate Court found nine Chadema top officials including the party’s national chairman Freeman Mbowe with a case to answer. Mr Mbowe and the eight others face thirteen charges, including sedition.

Further, ACT-Wazalendo chief party advisor and former Vice President of Zanzibar, Mr Maalim Seif Sharif Hamad was interrogated by police in Pemba in January. He was accused of holding an illegal public rally on December 9, 2019 in Michiweni, Pemba. Along with his co-accused, Mr Hamad maintains that they didn’t hold a rally rather they held an internal party meeting to collect views as the party prepares the 2020 election manifesto.

Small shifts in Chadema leadership
Mr Freeman Mbowe has retained his position as Chadema national chairman in an election held on December 18, 2019. Mr Mbowe who has led the party since 2004 scooped 886 votes (equivalent to 93.5%), while his only opponent Mr Cecil Mwambe picked up 59 votes. The last such election was held in 2014.

The same election process saw Chadema legal director Mr Tundu Lissu elected as the new party vice chairman (mainland) after the incumbent Professor Abdallah Safari stepped down. Mr Lissu was elected unopposed after his main competition for the position, the MPs Sophia Mwakagenda and Saed Kubenea both opted to withdraw their candidacies.

Mr Lissu, the former Singida East MP, has been outside the country for two years now after surviving an assassination attempt.

Following his election, Mr Mbowe appointed Kibamba MP John Mnyika as the party’s new secretary general, replacing Dr Vincent Mashinji. He also appointed Mr Benson Kigaila as the party’s new deputy secretary general (Mainland) and retained Mr Salum Mwalimu as the deputy secretary general (Zanzibar).

Further crackdowns on government critics, further criticism of the government on human rights
The list of politicians, journalists and rights activists to have disappeared or been arrested in Tanzania continues to grow. Besides the politicians mentioned above, in the past few months the most notable cases include Tito Magoti of the Legal and Human Rights Centre (LHRC), and the former President of Tanganyika Law Society (TLS), Fatma Karume.

Mr Magoti disappeared in suspicious circumstances shortly before Christmas. His friends and LHRC colleagues stated that a group of six people in plain clothes confronted him, handcuffed him and bundled him into a Toyota Harrier. Only later did police in Dar es Salaam confirm that they were holding Mr Magoti.

The police statement was less than forthcoming, however, not stating what Mr Magoti was accused of having done, nor where he was being held.

LHRC executive director, Anna Henga, said the laws of the country provide for suspects to be granted bail or arraigned in court within 24 hours of arrest, noting that he had already been held for over 48 hours by that point. “He was supposed to be granted bail because it is his right. We will, therefore, use legal and judicial procedures for him to be bailed,” she said. She added that LHRC had visited all the major police stations in the Kinondoni Region looking for Tito, but in vain.

“This has been a growing trend as security organs can arrest civilians secretly and hold them for a long time without information being communicated to families and relatives,” she said. Mr Magoti was eventually charged with money laundering, together with an information technology expert, Mr Theodory Faustine. Under Tanzanian law, this charge does not permit bail.

Erick Kabendera at Kisutu Residents Magistrate Court in Dar es Salaam.

Money laundering is the same charge facing Erick Kabendera, an investigative journalist, who remains in custody since July 2019. In January, he was refused permission to attend his mother’s funeral.

Fatma Karume became a high profile and outspoken critic of President Magufuli during her term from 2018 to 2019 as President of Tanzania’s bar society, TLS. Since then she has become a regular presence in the Tanzanian media and has taken up several constitutional cases to challenge what she sees as the erosion of the rule of law under President Magufuli. She is the granddaughter for the first President of Zanzibar, Abeid Amani Karume and daughter of former Zanzibar President Amani Abeid Karume.

In September, Ms Karume was suspended from practicing as a lawyer in Tanzania by High Court Principal Judge Eliezer Feleshi. The Judge accused her of impropriety in her handling of a particular case, without specifying what exactly she had done.

The case, in which Ms Karume was representing Mr Ado Shaibu, challenged President John Magufuli’s appointment of Prof Adelardus Kilangi as Attorney General. Ms Karume, who was not in court during the ruling was accused of impropriety in her submission, and has since cried foul, saying she was condemned unheard.

Fatma Karume

She later said that suspending her license would not dampen her spirit or stop her from championing social justice, the rule of law and good governance. “You never know what this means and what lies ahead as fate works in many ways. Maybe this is telling me that I will not bring desired change to society via the route of the law in court but elsewhere. Maybe I should be in politics,” she told journalists.

More broadly, the Media Council of Tanzania (MCT), a press freedom advocacy group, raised the alarm about violations of press freedom in Tanzania. They noted an increase in threats and interference in editorial independence, including serious violations committed by government authorities, state organs, self-styled activist and non-state actors.

A surprise move by the government came when it withdrew the right of individuals and NGOs to directly file cases against it at the Arusha-based African Court on Human and Peoples’ Rights. The Tanzanian Minister of Foreign Affairs and East African Cooperation, Prof Palamagamba Kabudi, signed the notice of withdrawal of the declaration made under Article 34(6) of the African Court Protocol on November 14. Tanzania becomes the second country after Rwanda to take this step.

The decision came shortly after the African Commission on Human and Peoples’ Rights, the African Union’s human rights body, condemned “massive human rights violations” by authorities. In its statement, the commission highlighted a reluctance to investigate serious human rights breaches like that of the disappearance of freelance journalist Azory Gwanda. It also came at a time reports indicate the country had the highest number of cases filed by individuals and NGOs as well as judgments issued against it by the African Court. Out of the 70 decisions issued by the court by September 2019, 28 decisions, or 40%, were on Tanzania.

“The many cases filed against Tanzania at the African Court speak to the abject failure by the country to provide victims of human rights violations adequate and effective remedies nationally”, said Japhet Biegon of Amnesty, a human rights group.

Finally, both Amnesty and Human Rights Watch issued scathing reports in September on the state of human rights in Tanzania. For both organisations, these were the first detailed reports on human rights in Tanzania for many years.

Government actions, noted the reports, have had a chilling effect on the rights to freedom of expression, association and peaceful assembly, with people’s censoring actions perceived as critical of the government for fear of prosecution or other reprisals. Amnesty accused the government of President Magufuli of “disembowelling the country’s human rights framework”.

“Tanzania should show true commitment to protecting and fulfilling the rights to freedom of expression and association. The authorities need to put a stop to harassment, intimidation, and arbitrary arrests of activists, journalists, and opposition members,” said Oryem Nyeko, Africa researcher at Human Rights Watch.

Mr Ngemela Lubinga, the CCM secretary for International Relations dismissed the reports. He denied any violation of human rights in Tanzania, stressing: “We cannot run our affairs as a nation based on how the international community perceives us. Rather, we will live by the rules and norms of our country as an independent nation. We cannot implement recommendations that are not aimed at creating peace – but aim at dividing the nation.”

The government has previously argued that democratic rights are a secondary consideration, a luxury that should only be given serious attention once more concrete improvements – such as transport infrastructure, power generation, public services and poverty reduction – have been delivered.

Tanzania ranks low for mobile phone protections
Tanzania has some of the harshest SIM card monitoring policies in the world, joining the league of Saudi Arabia and North Korea, according to recently published research. This includes use of fingerprint technology for SIM card registration and other measures that enable the government to track and monitor users and build in-depth profiles of their citizens.
The research, published by Comparitech, a UK-based firm, puts Tanzania in last place out of 150 countries, below even Saudi Arabia (149th) and North Korea (joint 147th with Uganda). The report also notes that Tanzania does not have a comprehensive data protection law.

by Ben Taylor

Selection of newspaper covers from July featuring the developing story

Two former Secretary Generals of the ruling party, CCM, Abdulrahman Kinana and Yusuf Makamba, stirred up a very public argument at the highest levels of the party in July. They wrote a letter to the Elders’ Council, an advisory body within the party, warning of the dangers that “unfounded allegations” in a tabloid newspaper pose to the party’s “unity, solidarity and tranquillity.”

This refers to the frequent allegations by publisher, Mr Cyprian Musiba, in his newspapers and on social media, that several senior figures within the party were involved in a plot to undermine the leadership of President John Magufuli. The supposed plotters named by Mr Musiba include Kinana and Makamba, as well as former Foreign Affairs Minister, Bernard Membe, various opposition leaders, government officials and civil society activists.

Mr Musiba has styled himself as a “media activist” seeking to “defend the President against a plot to sabotage him.” His publications have consistently backed President Magufuli and ferociously attacked many within the party and outside, on the basis of little or no evidence.

Mr Makamba and Mr Kinana, who served as CCM’s secretary generals between 2009 to 2011 and 2012-2018 respectively, called on the party’s elders to intervene. They argued that there must be something else behind Mr Musiba’s accusations, which they think is determined to drive the country “into a precipitous drop.” They suggested that for him to be doing this, he must have protection or even direction from a very high level.

They added that they preferred to seek resolution of the matter by raising it within the party rather than taking legal action against Mr Musiba, as others including Mr Membe have done, saying they want to clear their names rather than seek compensation.

The response from the party was sceptical. The secretary to the Elders Council, Pius Msekwa, former speaker of parliament, said there was little the council could do. Mtera MP, Mr Livingstone Lusinde, said the paid had gone astray and wondered how come they are agitated by the acts whose culture they helped create in the first place. Nzega Urban MP (CCM) Hussein Bashe described the letter as a “plot to deny President Magufuli a chance to contest as second term in 2020” and said it went against the party’s constitution.

More significantly, the current CCM Secretary General Dr Bashiru Ally appeared to take issue with Kinana and Makamba. Without mentioning them by name, he warned of a plot to destabilise the party and said that those behind it would “face the music.” According to newspaper reports, the supposed plot also involves Makamba’s son, January Makamba, himself a significant political figure – see next story – as well as former Ministers Nape Nnauye, William Ngeleja and Bernard Membe.

Rather than helping CCM, Bashiru said, the dispute serves the interests of the opposition. “This is a childish game and it’s not surprising that the opposition loves it. They love childish games,” noted Bashiru. He called on party members to defend their leaders when the political atmosphere “gets dirty”.

Previously, in December 2018, Dr Ally had publicly summoned Mr Membe, saying he wanted to speak to him about reports – published in Mr Musiba’s newspapers – that he wanted to challenge President Magufuli in the 2020 General Election.

Mr Membe has largely stepped back from politics after losing the CCM race for the presidential nomination to Dr Magufuli in 2015. He has largely spent his time outside the country on private business. Thus far, he has said nothing to suggest he would challenge President Magufuli for the CCM ticket in 2020.

Outside the party, ACT-Wazalendo party leader Zitto Kabwe commended Mr Kinana’s and Mr Makamba’s letter, saying it transcends party’s interests, touching issues of national interests, especially national security.

Dr Paul Luisulie, a political analyst from the University of Dodoma, said the letter and the reaction to it could be a sign of the failure of CCM’s internal mechanisms to deal with the grievances of those in the party who have concerns with the party’s current leadership. He said the situation could “have very serious consequences” for the unity of the party ahead of elections in 2020. If the letter is ignored, he argued, the authors’ suspicions will be confirmed. “It is very important that CCM give an explanation and work on the grievances that its former leaders have pointed out,” says Dr Luisulie.

A political scientist from the University of Dar es Salaam Dr Richard Mbunda noted that Mr Musiba’s attacks attracted neither protest nor condemnation from either the party or the government. “It is very possible that the person who is steering reforms to the party thinks that getting rid of these bad elements [those with doubts about the party’s leadership] is good for the larger party’s interests. But the consequences will be disastrous if the trend continues unbroken,” he warned.

by Ben Taylor

A country-wide ban on plastic bags has perhaps had unexpected con­sequences for the Minister who brought the long-standing proposal to fruition. As of June 2019, Tanzania became the 34th African country to ban importation, production, sale and use of plastic bags, according to the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP). A few weeks later, the Minister responsible, January Makamba, was fired.

In his role as Minister of State for Union Matters and the Environment, Mr Makamba had worked for several years to win the support of cabi­net and put the necessary legal reforms in place. In recent months he had conducted a nationwide campaign to raise awareness of the ban. The country also issued a notice to travellers that they will have to “sur­render” plastic bags in their possession at airports and other points of entry.

Traders in Dar es Salaam and elsewhere initially reported concerns that alternatives were more expensive and not as easily available as plastic bags had been. They also complained that they had found themselves with little choice but to burn their remaining stock of plastic bags to avoid problems with the authorities.

Nevertheless, more recent reports suggest that alternative containers had become more readily available. A resident of Dar es Salaam, Ms Rehema Mbiku, said that “the government has done a good thing because the plastic bags were polluting the environment.”

Immediately following the introduction of the ban, President John Magufuli made a surprise visit to a fish market sporting a wicker basket in a move to support the ban. However, his support for Mr Makamba did not last long.

Explaining his decision to fire Mr Makamba, President Magufuli com­plained that it actually took four years for the ban to be implemented. “The Vice President spoke about it. The Prime Minister spoke about it. There has been a lot of dillydallying until I issued an ultimatum,” he said.

The President also complained of sluggishness in the way tasks were being handled at the Ministry. “Investors are exposed to a lot of delays in accessing Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) certificates.” Some observers pointed to other factors, however. Mr Makamba is regarded as a potential successor of President Magufuli, and some argued that his widely praised ban on plastic bags was seen at high levels of the party as an attempt to gain political mileage.

Others noted that it is alleged that Makamba had played a role in the letter written by his father, the former CCM Secretary General Yusuf Makamba, complaining of his treatment in the media (see previous story). It is also alleged that January Makamba is a leading figure in the supposed plot to prevent President Magufuli from serving a second term.

At the same time as Mr Makamba was fired, a new Minister of Agriculture was appointed, Hussein Bashe. It may or may not be relevant that Mr Bashe was among the most vocal critics of Kinana and Yusuf Makamba following their letter to party elders (see previous story).

by Ben Taylor

Erick Kabendera, a leading Tanzanian investigative journalist whose articles have been published around the world, was arrested in July, prompting widespread criticism.

Kabendera, who has written for The Guardian, The Independent and Economist Intelligence Unit in the UK, as well as the East African and several Tanzanian newspapers. His work has been notable for his will­ingness to report facts that embarrass the government, and he has also been a prominent critic of President Magufuli’s government on social media.

The situation with Kabendera’s arrest remained unclear for several days. He was picked up from his home by unknown people in a vehi­cle with no number plate. His whereabouts was initially unknown, prompting alarm among his friends and family.

Two days later, the government admitted having detained Kabendera, and pointed to immigration concerns – that he might not be a Tanzanian citizen. Similar allegations have been made in the past, though the Immigration Department at the Ministry of Home Affairs issued a state­ment in 2013 clarifying that Mr Kabendera and his parents were indeed citizens of Tanzania.

Immigration concerns were soon dropped, however, to be replaced by allegations that Kabendera had contravened the Cybercrime Act through his work with the Economist Intelligence Unit. These new claims did not make it onto the eventual charge sheet either, which instead contains charges of money laundering, tax evasion and organ­ised crime. Money laundering is a non-bailable offence in Tanzania, and the journalist is therefore likely to spend several months behind bars even before his case is heard.

Kabendera’s lawyer, Jebra Kambole, said that the questioning since his arrest indicated that the real reason Kabendera had been detained was his work as a journalist.

The case drew strong criticism from pro-democracy campaigners and press freedom advocates. The Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) wrote a public letter to President Magufuli, arguing that “the public commitments that Tanzania has made to press freedom will remain empty words without urgent action,” and urging the government to drop the charges against Kabendera.

The UK government also expressed its concern, in a statement issued jointly by the British High Commission and the US Embassy in Tanzania. The statement referred to the “steady erosion of due process in the justice system in Tanzania,” citing frequent resort to lengthy pre­trial detentions and shifting charges.

“The irregular handling of the arrest, detention, and indictment of investigative journalist Erick Kabendera, including the fact that he was denied access to a lawyer in the early stages of his detention, (is) contrary to the Criminal Procedures Act,” the statement read. It con­cludes by urging the Tanzania government “to guarantee due process to each of its citizens, which it has recognized as a basic human right as signatory to multiple UN Human Rights Conventions, among them the International Covenant for Civil and Political Rights.”

Emmanuel Buhohela, spokesman at Tanzania’s foreign affairs ministry, said that the matter regarding Kabendera is before the country’s courts of law. “They [the diplomats] should let justice follow its due course,” he told Reuters news agency.