by Paul Harrison

Tanzanian tourism continues to grow steadily
According to the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC), reported in the Daily News, the tourism industry grew by 5.6% in 2018 across Africa compared to a global average of 3.9%, making Africa the second fastest growing region after Asia-Pacific. Tanzania continues to outpace many other East African nations, with a solid product range of safaris, walking, mountaineering and beach tourism boosting the industry which accounts for 17% of Tanzania’s GDP. The Citizen reports that Tanzania was 10th in the tourism growth ranking across the continent, based on the WTTC’s 2019 Competitive Index.

However, the ease of doing business for the tourism sector is diminished by a robust bureaucracy, a forthright national revenue service and ongoing difficulties in accessing foreign exchange, for companies and tourists alike. Queues at a restricted number of dedicated forex bureaux have become commonplace. As the country looks to improve the investment climate through 2020, the government faces a challenge to align pro-investment messaging with improvements in bureaucracy. For instance, The Citizen reported the government statement that it will simplify the procedure for wildlife filming, recognising the potential for wildlife films and documentaries to attract visitors.

Ongoing investments in infrastructure include a new train operating between Dar es Salaam and Moshi, expected to encourage hikers, backpackers and those seeking a slower pace of sightseeing. Investments in the road network aid tourism growth although these sometimes risk impacting the viability of key wild animal populations such as lions, which require large undisturbed areas and the ability to migrate freely.

Lions, symbol of Tanzania’s might, at risk
In Tanzanian daily life, the lion features on currency, commercial logos, kanga designs and tourist shirts, but the economic benefits of lions to Tanzania are not widely known. There are around 8,000 lions in Tanzania, accounting for over a third of all lion populations globally. This point of pride for Tanzania is also a great responsibility. 60% of Tanzania’s lions live outside protected areas and are increasingly threatened. Lions are vital to Tanzania’s tourist industry, with tourists wanting to see lions above all else. Healthy lion populations keep herbivore populations under control which keeps diseases at bay; their habitats serve as carbon sinks. Water from lion habitats feeds rivers, supplying major cities and conserving lion habitat ensures more resilient ecosystems. Yet investments into lion conservation are limited, reflecting a lack of awareness of their plight. A campaign called #bethepride has been launched, with national and international support, to raise awareness of dwindling lion populations, increase Tanzanians pride in them and help individual Tanzanians act to protect them.

Managing links between communal lands, game reserves and national parks is important to ensure suitable space for lions. There can be unintended consequences of partitioning protected areas, as if a new national park is created, it can be tempting to build roads around it. Yet habitat connectivity and countering the ‘edge effect’ to parks and reserves is critical. A holistic approach to protected areas management is required; the links need to be safeguarded where they can.

New national parks bring new opportunities
The government continues to invest into and expand the national parks system, with 22 parks in the national park system under Tanzania National Parks (TANAPA). The largest national park in Africa, Nyerere National Park, was gazetted in November 2019. This has upgraded 30,893 square kilometres (out of 50,000) of the Selous Game Reserve. Also recently gazetted are Ugalla River National Park (3.865 km2) and Kigosi National Park (7,460 km2), both also former game reserves.

The transfer of significant, prime sections of game reserve wildlife real estate to TANAPA suggests that government sees future value to its wildlife economy increasingly in photographic tourism alongside utilisation. To safeguard against the variability of the tourism industry, the government will need to ensure a diverse tourism product and investment strategy to counter reduced returns elsewhere across the wildlife estate, including from hunting.

Investment into new destinations and effective national and international marketing of them will be critical, especially of hitherto unknown destinations in the Southern Circuit—the collection of parks across the south of the country. A new arrangement for TANAPA to be managed from four regional zonal offices (north, south, east and west) will no doubt help evolving operations, reducing pressure on Arusha headquarters. Financing will be key, both in terms of short-term support from government and donors (in place now from the USA, Germany, the United Nations and the World Bank, amongst others) as well as long-term economic sustainability.

Increasing national park numbers may also indicate a response to challenges faced in realising the potential of the Tanzania Wildlife Management Authority (TAWA), established in 2014. This includes the issue that wildlife utilisation, including hunting, is increasingly controversial in some consumer countries. Countries like the USA have closed elephant and lion trophy imports for significant periods and the UK is considering a total ban on wildlife trophy imports. Social media reflects an increasing global intolerance of hunting, putting pressure on governments in consumer countries. A number of major safari operators have surrendered concessions, including some in place for decades, citing a lack of demand. Wildlife utilisation remains a part of the wildlife economy picture, if diminished; the remaining area of the Selous game reserve set aside for utilisation after the creation of Nyerere national park is down to around a third of the original size.

Meanwhile, the Rufiji Hydropower project is ongoing at Stiegler’s Gorge, with ambitious plans for completion by 2022 requiring excavation of the Rufiji river dam site throughout 2020 and work on the reservoir in 2021 before construction of the power plant. UNESCO’s World Heritage Committee, working with the World Conservation Union (IUCN) were critical of TANESCO’s Strategic Environmental Assessment for the hydropower project in a review submitted to the government in late 2019. The question mark remains over retention of the area’s World Heritage status. The project, expected to generate 2,100 megawatts with an annual output of 6,300 GWh, is critical to the President’s industrialisation strategy.

Anti-poaching strategy yielding results with increased political will
Tanzania’s increasingly hard line on poaching, including on the involvement of foreign nationals, is reflected in the government’s 2014 national strategy to combat poaching and the illegal wildlife trade, supported by the United Nations and other partners. This responded to an international poaching crisis which saw the Selous game reserve hardest hit. After a slow start to implementation, ongoing institutional reforms and a strong focus on enforcement under the current government have seen the strategy bear fruit. Previously disparate law enforcement units that tackled poaching from different perspectives have been brought together under the national task force on anti-poaching, spearheaded by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Tourism with collaboration of other national law enforcement and intelligence agencies.

High-level cases have successfully been brought to justice. Notably, coordinated intelligence and enforcement efforts within Tanzania led to the arrest of Chinese national Yang Fenglan alongside several Tanzanian accomplices. The so-called ‘Ivory Queen’ was convicted in 2019 of smuggling around 700 elephant tusks and accused of operating an ivory smuggling ring. Her arrest and prosecution were openly supported by the Chinese government.

Poaching levels are now dropping consistently and there has been a notable increase in elephant populations over the last two years, though diligent efforts and ongoing funding are required to ensure the crisis does not return. Funding for anti-poaching and intelligence work comes through the Tanzania Wildlife Protection Fund, supported by key national protected areas agencies. Ongoing supplementary investments from international donors into implementation of the national anti-poaching strategy are expected to be necessary in the short term.

Charcoal, certified timber and tackling deforestation
The Citizen reported that the Tanzania Forest Conservation Group, working with the Tanzania Community Forest Conservation Network, has provided training in Morogoro to local people on sustainable harvesting of trees for charcoal. Charcoal use remains widespread and significantly contributes to deforestation. These efforts support community revenue generation, education and awareness and could be replicated widely. Meanwhile in southern Tanzania, a number of timber companies are now Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) certified, in an effort to ensure the sustainability of the trade in valuable timber resources, from community managed forests as well as government reserves.

by Paul Harrison

Tourism renewal throughout 2018
Tourism is the main contributor to foreign exchange receipts for Tanzania, making up over 15% of GDP. According to the Bank of Tanzania, tourism brought in $1.22 billion of revenues in 2018, making it the second largest earner for Tanzania in GDP terms. The government is well aware of the significance of the industry and has been taking steps to diversify the product and the demand.

Indeed, Tanzania’s efforts to attract more tourism revenues have yielded fruit over the last eighteen months or so. According to reporting by the Bank of Tanzania, visitor numbers rose to 688,252 in mid-2018, up from 567,761 in mid-2017, a rise of 21%, as reported in the Guardian newspaper.

Minister of Natural Resources and Tourism, Dr. Hamisi Kigwangalla is pushing for two million visitors to Tanzania by 2020 by increasing the number of tourism products but also the number of nationalities visit­ing. The Minister has, according to press reports, described Russia as a “new frontier”. The Chinese market is also being actively sought. For the time being, the United States and the UK are the two main markets for Tanzania, alongside Kenya if you include volumes of entries across the Namanga border. The Tanzanian Investment Centre is actively engaged in attracting new tourism industry investment from emerging markets like China to provide sufficient products for emerging Asian demand.

According to the Citizen newspaper, the minister disbanded the Tanzania Tourism Board (TTB) in late January 2019 for being slow and ineffective. It was subsequently reinstated under a new management team. The Minister has been pushing for digitising the system, which has been slow in development and the TTB is under pressure to update itself and its offer.

Diversification of the tourism product will require a boost for the south, which though long-talked about, has yet to come about at the pace the country would like to see. ‘Southern Circuit’ destinations being promoted include Ruaha, Katavi, Mahale and Gombe Stream national parks. Efforts to reinvigorate the southern protected area estate need to continue to avoid reliance on the northern circuit and greater efforts at bringing tourism dollars into the lesser known game reserves. Currently only northern circuit national parks like the Serengeti and Kilimanjaro are profitable, the rest being, in effect, subsidised.

The government is aware that the southern circuit needs considerable promotion, and Tanzania and the TTB will likely want to move away from the tagline of “Tanzania: Land of Kilimanjaro, Zanzibar and the Serengeti” to show case the remaining parks and associated landscapes. Many great southern circuit destinations are being missed by this approach of marketing only the north, rather than taking a more holistic approach such as the “Incredible India” marketing campaign.

Tanzania has had to rise above numerous criticisms in the international media and from certain bilateral partners over its handling of the Selous hydropower scheme, to prove that the majority of the Selous as a protected area will be able to continue to be protected. Criticism has been put that the new hydroelectric dam will lead to significant envi­ronmental damage in the existing game reserve through logging and disturbance to wildlife populations, and downstream, such as through various impacts on the drainage system of the Rufiji basin and associ­ated riverine ecosystems.

Nonetheless, clearing of the miombo woodland for the new hydro­power site in the Selous game reserve has taken place, with prepara­tions underway now for initiating the dam development, the project having been formally inaugurated in July.

President John Magufuli has been keen to emphasise that the majority of the Selous as a protected system, remains and will remain protected. Indeed, the President has gone further through announcing that the most popular part of the Selous, the northern section, will be upgraded, likely to be called “Nyerere National Park”. The south will remain as a game reserve and hunting licences are in the process of being reissued with new bidding rounds for some concessions underway.

The subject of hydropower has not been limited to Selous and Stiegler’s Gorge alone, as Tanzania has been negotiating with Kenya about halt­ing the proposed construction of a set of dams along the Mara river. This has been an ongoing discussion and it is not clear how serious the Kenyan proposals are.

In the Selous area, the proposed Nyerere national park falls in line with a spate of upgrades to the protected area system as part of the tour­ism drive. The national park system has risen from 16 to 21 parks of late with the addition of new game reserves in the north west, namely Ibanda, Rumanyika, Birigi, Biharamulo and Kimisi. If the tourism prod­ucts can be developed in the new sites and well marketed, they will offer significant new potential for further growth of the sector, though there is a risk in the short term of the new parks weighing down the system further.

The rise of interest in tourism by the government is also extending to cultural sights, with new government investments in the Olduvai gorge visitor experience. More investments are needed in other sights, however, such as Kolo, Kondoa, and Kilwa Kisiwani, to continue to diversify the cultural tourism portfolio.

Meanwhile, according to the Citizen, a nine-year-old boy, Advait Bhartia, known fondly by locals as simba mtoto, or little lion, has recently climbed Kilimanjaro, summiting on 31st July 2019. He is perhaps sur­prisingly not the youngest, that prize going to a seven-year-old.

Taking nature conservation more seriously
Perhaps in recognition, at least in part, of the tourism potential of Tanzania’s natural resources, government attention on the security of natural resources has been on the rise. Wildlife enforcement efforts have been on the rise with a joint task force between the Ministry of Natural Resources and Tourism and law enforcement agencies getting results from intelligence operations and some significant arrests.

There is, as a result, positive news in the world of elephant conser­vation, with numbers rising again in the country after their brutal persecution in recent years, particularly in the Selous. However, with rising elephant numbers, as the animals start to feel more relaxed away from wilderness areas and head to park boundaries and into public lands, the incidence of human elephant conflict is now a significant problem across many parts of the country, from the Selous to the west­ern Serengeti, amongst other places. Tanzania can be expected to seek financial support to engage with local people to effectively tackle this.

The government is aware of the difficultly of community engagement in conservation, with different forms of participation possible through marine, forest and wildlife management. There may be cause for further simplification of the policy structure to make it easier for communities to manage and benefit from the wild flora and fauna around them. The conservancy model is one option that may be considered, which has been utilised in Namibia and Kenya with some success.

Some positive news is arising in the world of forestry too, with Chome nature reserve reporting a growth in canopy cover following donor investments and new community forests set up to take advantage of sus­tainable trade of selected hard wood species using Forest Stewardship Council certification.

by Ben Taylor

A busy first few months for Minister Kigwangalla
The Minister for Natural Resources and Tourism, Dr Hamisi Kigwangalla, has stirred up the sector since his appointment in late 2017. In a little over six months in office, he has accused several hunting companies of grave acts of misconduct, including announcing that the managing director of Otterlo Business Corporation (OBC) was under investiga­tion for corruption; revoked and then extended tourist hunting licenses issued between 2013 and 2017; accused Ministry staff of collusion with poachers; fired the head of Wildlife Conservation, Emmanuel Barabara; and directed the police to arrest certain individuals he suspects of involvement either in poaching or in the death of conservationist Wayne Lotter.

These moves have prompted both support and criticism.

Leaders of the Tanzania Professional Hunters Association (TPHA) accused the Minister of “disrespect for natural justice.” TPHA linked the minister’s remarks against some of the association’s members with his attempt to cancel validly-granted hunting blocks to operators, claim­ing that this is a dangerous precedent that is not based on law and “not in the best interests of the tourism industry”.

Conservation activist, Susannah Nordlund, said local activists’ hopes had been raised by the Minister’s early stance against OBC – including a promise that they would be “gone by January” – but that their hopes had been dashed by his more recent actions. “Now they feel sorry that he has had to bow to pressure from his superiors,” she wrote in a blog­post after Kigwangalla expressed support for OBC following a visit by Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed, the Crown Prince of Dubai, to OBC hunting blocks in March.

The Minister stated in April that not a single wild animal has been reported killed by poachers in the past 6 months.

Selous elephant collaring project launched
The government, with support from WWF, has launched the country’s largest ever elephant collaring effort. 60 elephants will be collared in and around the Selous. This will support reserve management and gov­ernment rangers, enabling them to track elephant movements, identify and act against threats in real-time.

“In a landscape as vast as Selous where poaching continues, better information on the whereabouts of elephants is critical to anticipate the risks they may encounter, including fatal attacks by poachers,” said Asukile Kajuni of WWF-Tanzania. “The collars mark an important first step in the zero-poaching approach we are taking by enabling wildlife protection teams to be on the front foot against poaching attacks,” he added.

In 2014, UNESCO placed Selous on its List of World Heritage in Danger due to the severity of elephant poaching. In the past 40 years, widespread poaching of elephants for ivory has seen the population in Selous decimated, with numbers plunging from 110,000 to an estimated 15,000.
To collar an elephant, the animal is first sedated by an immobilisation dart. A team then moves in to gather health data about the elephant and attach the collar. This takes a total of up to 30 minutes, following which the elephant is given an antidote to revive and join its herd. (Daily News)

Parliament endorses Paris Climate Agreement
The National Assembly in early April formally endorsed the Paris Climate Change agreement. The Minister of State in the Vice President Office (Union Affairs and the Environment), January Makamba, tabled the motion, which was unanimously supported.

Makamba said endorsing the agreement would have a positive impact on the country’s economy. “It will strengthen Tanzania’s multinational cooperation in matters pertaining to climate change,” he said, add­ing that the pact would help increase opportunities in clean energy technology through the use of natural gas for domestic purposes, thus accelerating progress towards industrialisation and the use of afford­able energy.

After parliament’s endorsement, the next step is for Tanzania to formally ratify the treaty. Tanzania will become the 176th country to do so.

The Paris Agreement deals with greenhouse gas emissions mitigation, adaptation, and finance starting in the year 2020. The language of the agreement was negotiated by representatives of 196 parties at the 21st Conference of the Parties of the UNFCCC in Paris and adopted by con­sensus on 12 December 2015. US President, Donald Trump, announced in July 2017 his intention to withdraw from the agreement. Under the agreement, the earliest possible date for a US withdrawal to take effect is November 2020, shortly before the end of President Trump’s current term.

by Mark Gillies

Action in Maasai land dispute
Newly appointed Minister of Natural Resources and Tourism, Hamis Kigwangalla, has terminated a 25-year-old hunting concession with a company owned by the United Arab Emirates royal family and launched investigations into the dealings of the company and former tourism ministers.

The Minister ordered the Prevention and Combating of Corruption Bureau (PCCB) to arrest and investigate Isaac Mollel, executive director of the Ortelo Business Corporation (OBC), for trying to bribe him and his predecessors. Dr Kigwangalla also called for the investigation of former ministers. This includes Lazaro Nyalandu, who was recently lambasted by the Minister after having defected from CCM to Chadema citing concerns at the government’s direction under President Magufuli.

Dr Kigwangalla said OBC will never be awarded another hunting licence, and suspended director of wildlife Alexander Songorwa for allegedly creating a syndicate of government officials in the ministry who have been compromised.

Prior to Kigwangalla’s appointed, long-running tensions between the Maasai community and government authorities in Loliondo and the Serengeti flared up in August 2017. An estimated 185 homes were burned in an act of forced eviction, according to a Danish NGO, the International Work Group for Indigenous Affairs (IWGIA).

“We must speak out about the land issue,” said Lilian Looloitai of Cords Limited, an Arusha-based rights group. “The government has not taken the proper measures to educate and communicate what their intentions are for the land. They are told, ‘You can’t cross this land, it belongs to the government, you can’t cross this land it belongs to investors’. We are not certain, we are not stable – as a community, as a society – and it is affecting our future.”

In 2012, there were claims that the government wanted to force Maasai pastoralists off their land to allow hunting activities on land bordering the Serengeti National Park. In response, the government shelved plans to create a “wildlife corridor” of 579 square miles. President Kikwete promised in 2014 that evictions would not take place.

Shortly after his appointment, the new Minister gave an interview to The Citizen newspaper that offered rights and conservation activists hope. “I heard about the violation of human rights that occurred in that area including houses of residents being torched and women being raped,” he said. “So, I have said as the minister I will not promote the dispute further as it only serves to entrench hatred of the people we seek to serve against their government.”

“Some livestock were seized on the villages’ land during an operation of establishing the buffer zone,” he added. “I said you seized these livestock in the game controlled area of Loliondo and you have not seized them according to the law. So, get them (livestock) back to the residents and I suspended that operation. The animals seized within the Serengeti National Park would be fined according to the law.”

Just days later, the OBC concession was terminated, Songorwa suspended and PCCB called in.

Bids invited for Stiegler’s Gorge hydropower dam project
The Ministry of Energy and Minerals has invited bids for the construction of a hydropower project at Stiegler’s Gorge in the Selous Game Reserve, despite opposition from conservationists.

The government considers the project on the Rufiji river in the UNESCO-designated reserve as vital in its bid to diversify its energy mix and end chronic electricity shortages.

The project would more than double the country’s power generation capacity. With an installed capacity of at least 2,100MW, the new dam will dwarf other hydropower dams in Tanzania, including Kidatu (204MW), Kihansi (180MW), Mtera (80MW) and Pangani (68MW).

The conservation group, WWF, called on potential investors, banks and construction companies not to participate in the project, at least until a full Strategic Environmental Assessment has been carried out. “WWF wants the true impacts of the dam to first be assessed and the World Heritage Committee to give its approval. The proposed dam would endanger the livelihoods of 200,000 local people and the reserve’s rare wildlife, such as elephants and black rhinos, would be placed under even greater threat.” “Companies who become involved in the project run the risk of significant reputational damage,” said WWF campaign manager. “We are asking investors, banks and those in the construction industry that work on dams to add Stiegler’s Gorge to their risk register.”

President Magufuli’s office said in July that the long-delayed hydroelectric plant would be built “to speed up the development of the country”.

by Mark Gillies

The past few months have been a quiet time for Tanzanian tourism and conservation with no new crises to face, but plenty of on-going struggles.

Perhaps with an eye to the potential damage done to the Tanzanian tourism industry by cost increases of 2016, the Tanzanian Tourism Board was reported by ATC News on 14 March as being very busy at this year’s annual ITB trade show in Berlin, signing marketing representation agreements with companies in the three key source markets of the US, UK and Germany.

The job of these companies will be to promote the tourist destinations of Tanzania & Zanzibar whilst also liaising with tour operators and travel media in those source markets. Up until this point, hotel owners and tour operators have been forced to shoulder this burden privately with little support from the TTB. No details are yet known because the companies are only due to submit their business plans to the Tourism Board in the middle of the year, but it will be interesting to see if Tanzania’s story begins to be told in a more professional and comprehensive manner.

Although Tanzania’s appeal as a tourist destination remains strong, significant negative news stories remain available for the consumer to digest.

The widespread failure of the short rains last year and the subsequent drought across parts of East Africa has brought famine to Sudan, conflict to Kenya’s Laikipia Plateau and tension to Tanzania. Interestingly, echoes of Laikipia can be found in the 3 January Citizen report by Lilian Lucas that described the lake of rain in Morogoro Region and the reported death of almost 4,000 cattle. Responding to the deaths, Regional Commissioner, Dr Kebwe Steven Kebwe, consoled pastoralists who had lost cattle but ordered police in the region to co-operate with local militias in removing pastoralists cattle from farms. He also ‘turned down’ a request from local pastoralists to graze cattle in Mikumi National Park, advising instead that the applicants tend their pasture better next year.

Readers of TA and the wider media are now sadly familiar with the threat to the sustainable management of Tanzania’s natural resources posed by poaching. Elephant, lion and giraffe have all featured in the headlines of late, so it is with a certain glum weariness that we add the grumbling hippo to this tragic list.

IPP Media reported how in December, National Geographic released a report entitled ‘Fighting the Underground Trade in Hippo Teeth’ which detailed how poaching gangs in Tanzania, and other African countries, are killing hippo for their teeth, which are then carved into intricate patterns and sold to yes, you guessed it, the Chinese market.

The last census of the Tanzanian hippo population was conducted in 2001, so very little is known about current numbers and any losses from either poaching or reduction of habitat due to human expansion. When asked about the threat, the Director of Wildlife in the Ministry of Natural Resources and Tourism, Prof. Alexander Songorwa, stated that no hippo teeth can currently be exported legally from the country, except those acquired as a result of licenced sport hunting, but that the Department was soliciting funds and working on methodologies to combat any problem.

If the news of a new victim is always down-heartening, then reports of new initiatives in the protection of Tanzania’s natural heritage are always good to receive. This is particularly so when the news puts Tanzania on the cutting edge of technological development.

For the past few years, drones have been an increasing menace when deployed above the herds of the Great Migration, to use but one example. However, Bathawk Recon (http://bat-hawkrecon.com/) are proving that a much more sophisticated version can definitely be a force for good.

Bathawk Recon is a new private initiative based in northern Tanzanian established with the aim of using drone technology and surveillance techniques to oppose poaching operations across Tanzania and other African nations. Capable of flying during the day or the night, the drones can cover vast areas, protecting the wildlife below by spotting poaching teams and directing law enforcement teams into the affected area with pin-point accuracy. Furthermore, when contact is made with the poachers, the eye-in-the sky makes sure that no poachers are able to escape; all the while remaining unseen itself.

Have a look at the company’s videos; the potential is very exciting. One just hopes that should Bathawk Recon prove to be successful, their use will be supported wholeheartedly by the governments of Africa.

by Mark Gillies

In the final weeks of the year, the wise and the experienced book their summer safaris to East Africa, knowing that when January arrives and the masses do the same, availability in the best camps will disappear quickly. This makes the period a good time to judge the health of the region’s tourism industry for the year ahead.

The cost of travelling from the UK to Tanzania is now about 20% more expensive than it was this time last year. The increase is due to the removal of the VAT on certain tourism goods and services in Tanzania in July, plus the weakening of Sterling against both the US dollar and the Euro following the unexpected political events in the UK and the US this year.

The Tanzanian government cannot therefore be blamed solely for the price rises, but the tax increases certainly haven’t helped the Tanzanian tourism industry. While it would take a catastrophe to stop the congregation of large numbers of vehicle in the Ngorongoro Crater, talking to camp owners and operators over the last few weeks does suggest a drop in booking numbers in the smaller, high-end camps.

At the same time, over the border in Kenya, owners and operators, sensing their neighbour’s weakness, have introduced a range of special offers and are reporting a distinct rise in booking numbers. Even the now traditional fear of violent disruption that comes with an election year seems not to be affecting business.

This is the current reality against which news stories concerning Tanzanian tourism and conservation must be considered. Tanzania will always be a fantastic place to visit, but if the ambitious growth targets of 20% year on year identified by the Tanzania Tourism Task Force in 2013 are to be met, then stakeholders and the Tanzanian government must not forget the ‘challenges’ that could prevent the desired growth – or even, in the worst case, cause a contraction of the industry.

Mr Richard Rugimbana, Executive Secretary of the Tanzanian Confederation of Tourism, listed these challenges in The Citizen on 14 July as ‘multiplicity of taxes, levies and fees… …and wanton destruction of natural assets.’

With this last challenge in mind, it is concerning to receive an update from Serengeti Watch reporting that funds have been set aside for the construction on a bitumen (sealed) road between the towns of Natta, Mugumu, and Loliondo, the first phase of the proposed road across the northern Serengeti. The report refers to an unspecified online government document, but if it proves to be accurate then the Serengeti as a complete ecosystem remains under threat.

In August, The Citizen published a timely reminder that Europe and the US is not the only target market for the Tanzanian tourism industry. The newspaper reported Tanzania National Parks (TANAPA) Director General Allan Kijazi describing a recent push to market Tanzania’s natural resources to the Chinese market by hosting 16 senior Chinese journalists from various media houses on a familiarisation trip to Mikumi National Park.

With China previously being more closely associated to the plague of the poaching of Tanzanian’s natural resources, it is interesting to see a more positive connection and to ponder how a growth in the number of Chinese tourists could affect the very make-up of the Tanzanian tourist industry, from the style of accommodation offered to the language skills of field guides. (The Citizen, Serengeti Watch)

In December, just as TA was going to press, the Prime Minister, Kassim Majaliwa, took a personal interest in the fate of “Faru John,” a rare white rhino imported to Ngorongoro from South Africa some years ago. Faru John is reported to have personally sired 70% of the crater’s total white rhino population. “I know that the rhino was taken to Grumeti Reserve in Serengeti under the pretext of having the rare and endangered animal breed in the location,” said the Prime Minister. “But in reality, it is under ownership of a private lodge.” Later, a different story emerged: that the rhino had died after an illness and been buried. The Minister for Natural Resources and Tourism, Jumanne Maghembe presented the Prime Minister with two horns said to be from John. Details of what exactly took place, including when and why John had been relocated and whether the dead rhino is indeed John, remain unclear and the Prime Minister has formed a probe team to investigate. Rhino horn is gram-for-gram more valuable than either gold or heroin. (Daily News, The Citizen)

Are the rivers in Tanzania at risk of drying up? The contested causes of environmental change

This is a summary of a presentation by Professor Bruce Lankford of the University of East Anglia at a seminar on 10 October 2016.

The facts are startling. In 2004 Bruce Fox, whose family run a safari and hotel company in the Ruaha National Park, pointed out that in 1993 the Great Ruaha River dried up in the dry season, with dire consequences for fish in the river, plants and animals in the game park, and the belief that it would affect electricity generation at the Mtera and Kidatu dams downstream (see below), which supply hydro-electricity to Dar es Salaam, Dodoma and many other parts of Tanzania. In more recent years, it has dried up every dry season. The Great Ruaha river drains an area the size of Wales and feeds into the Usangu or Ihefu wetland. Fox asserted that it was not a coincidence that the drying up had started after the World Bank and other donors paid for projects that increased the amount of abstraction of water for irrigation and domestic provision via so-called modernised concrete weirs which could divert much or all of the flow onto large areas of irrigated land in the Usangu plains – large state farms (now privatised) at Mbarali and Kapunga and many other smaller schemes. Other environmental concerns included the very large numbers of cattle in the Usangu plains, and one of the Government’s responses was to move them all out, in the erroneous belief it would ‘save water’.

Prof Lankford had already done work on the hydrology of the river, and was involved in two major research projects. With numerous other research projects taking place in the plains, Usangu has become one of the most researched areas in Africa. There were some important conclusions. One was that the amounts of water cattle could drink was not so much that it would make a significant difference to the flows, even in the dry season. Another was that the drying up had only marginal impact on the generation of electricity, because by far the greater part of the water flowed into the dams during the rainy seasons, and was stored in the two dams – only a little got through in the dry seasons anyway. Several minor causes of flow reductions were identified, including deforestation upstream, greater diversion of streams for small-scale irrigation upstream, and greater evaporation due to climate change, but none sufficient to make a big overall difference.

The accumulation, however, of water abstractions, including from small diesel pumps and the construction of the concrete weirs has had, over time, an impact. They allow large amounts of water, in some cases the whole flow, of tributaries to be diverted for irrigation. They were associated with water rights which gave irrigators rights to an absolute amount of water, even when there was little in a river. They were often not well managed, so that water taken out of rivers ran to waste, or was used in excess.

The conclusions, some of which are expressed in The Great Ruaha Restoration Campaign, involve rewriting water rights, prohibiting extraction when flows are low, and using weirs that divide the water proportionally, leaving some flowing downstream. Some progress is being made, but so far not sufficient to restore the flows through the Ruaha game park.

by Mark Gillies

Are there any left?
This is the question that all who value the elephants of Tanzania will find themselves asking in the coming years if no concerted effort is made to tackle successfully the systematic slaughter currently affecting this most charismatic of species.

On 1st June, the Ministry of Natural Resources and Tourism in Tanzania officially released the results of a nationwide survey of the elephant population, which estimates that there are between 40,400 and 46,600 elephants remaining. This represents a decline of 60% since the last census in 2009.

This authoritative study, funded by Paul G. Allen, the co-founder of Microsoft, and conducted in conjunction with the Frankfurt Zoological Society, included all of the seven key ecosystems where elephant have traditionally be found in large numbers.

The decline in elephant numbers in the Selous has been well docu­mented before now, with the historic low point being recorded in 2013 at 13,084. Happily, in 2014, the number was up slightly to 15,217, but, as Rob Muir, the Africa Programme Director for the Frankfurt Zoological Society is quoted as saying in an article in The Daily Telegraph on 19 July, this is probably due to the fact that their numbers have reached ‘a critical threshold’ and are so low that the poachers are unable to find them as easily as had been the case.

Alarmingly, this raises the spectre of the poachers turning their atten­tion to other locations with high populations – and the statistics bear this out. The 2014 census showed the other areas most hard hit to be the Malagarasi-Muyovozi and Ruaha-Rungwa ecosystems, where the populations were down 81% and 76% respectively.

Such statistics should prompt politicians into concerted action if they are to safeguard both Tanzania’s natural resources and the long term future of a tourism industry that depends upon the elephant and other threatened creatures like the rhino and lion. Instead, they often panic and say things that make the rest of the world sit up in surprise.

In this case, The Tanzania Daily News on the 4th of June reported how Natural Resources Minister Lazaro Nyalandu, said that TANAPA would launch an investigation into the 12,000 elephants “missing” from Ruaha.

However, it is unlikely that these elephants are merely “missing”. High carcass rates were recorded in all areas surveyed, which is an accepted method of determining abnormally high mortality rates. Additionally, not all carcases will be spotted: many are picked clean of flesh and hid­den by vegetation long before.

Certainly, many elephants have moved deep into the bush to avoid detection, or, as reported by a camp manager in Ruaha National Park who prefers to remain anonymous, clustering together in large numbers for perceived protection. Normally, in July, when water is still easily available, elephant will be dispersed and feeding peacefully in small family groups.

While the stability of population numbers in the Serengeti and Tarangire ecosystems provides a glimmer of hope, the Tanzanian Government should not under estimate the damage to the Tanzanian tourism indus­try that a widespread perception of unfettered poaching in the country will do. The African tourism industry is immensely competitive and the tourists will go to where they think the animals to be. Both The Guardian and The Telegraph picked up the story of the catastrophic decline in elephant numbers, following on from The Daily Mail and the BBC last year.

If the international media is consistent in its reporting on the conserva­tion failings in Tanzania, then it will take a lot more than some advertis­ing in Sunderland on a match day (Tanzaniainvest.com) to repair the damage.

by Mark Gillies

In January, the Sixth Tanzania Economic Update was published by the World Bank. The tourism industry in Tanzania generated $1.9 billion by the end of November 2014, 22% of the value of all exports in that period. Although this is impressive, the number of tourists who visited Tanzania is just 11% of those that visited South Africa in 2013.

Considering the abundant natural resources in Tanzania, the World Bank believes that expansion of the tourism sector beyond northern Tanzania and Zanzibar to include southern destinations like Pangani, Ruaha and Katavi; plus stimulation of a domestic tourism market, could increase revenue to $16 billion a year in the next decade.

Echoing this need for expansion and investment, the Minister for Natural Resources and Tourism, Lazaro Nyalandu, met representatives from the World Bank, the United States and Germany to explore ways to generate the $300 million that the Ministry have identified as being required to improve the infrastructure and tourism facilities in the Selous Game Reserve, Ruaha and Katavi National Parks. (The Guardian 27 January)

The US and German Ambassadors, plus Minister Nyalandu, had previously visited the Selous Game Reserve. This visit heralded the transfer of a significant amount of field equipment to the Reserve, improvement of infrastructure and the provision of training for rangers, all designed to assist in the fight against the poaching that currently affects the Selous. It can only be hoped that this continued international focus on combatting poaching of all kinds also affects the criminal figures con­trolling the trade in Tanzania who have so far avoided prosecution. (The Citizen 24 January)

Sustainable conservation of Tanzania’s natural resource is dependent upon the tourism industry. But Tanzania is not South Africa and so it is to be hoped that policy makers will develop a Tanzanian strategy for growth that draws upon international examples, but does not seek to copy them in their entirety.