by Ben Taylor
Uranium investments underway?
Tanzania’s intention to join the ranks of uranium-producing nations has entered a defining phase, as the long-delayed Mkuju River project edges closer to industrial production amid growing pressure to secure financing and meet critical regulatory milestones.
Valued at approximately $1.2 billion, the project in Namtumbo District, Ruvuma Region, is increasingly being viewed by both government officials and investors as one of the most strategically important mining ventures.
For nearly 13 years, the project remained largely dormant after a collapse in global uranium prices forced investors to shelve plans for commercial extraction despite extensive exploration work and regulatory approvals.
However, the project has taken on increased strategic and geopolitical significance over the last few months, culminating in high-level discussions during President Samia Suluhu Hassan’s state visit to Russia.
The project is operated by Mantra Tanzania Limited, a company in which Russia’s State Atomic Energy Corporation (Rosatom), via its international mining subsidiary, Uranium One Group, holds a controlling 80% stake. The Tanzanian government owns the remaining 20% free-carried equity interest.
Some engineering is currently underway on-site, including land clearing and the construction of heavy-transport roads connecting the site to broader national transit corridors. The construction of the primary industrial metallurgical complex is reported as expected to ramp up heavily throughout the year. The long-term roadmap targets full-scale commercial mining operations by 2029, with a projected annual output capacity of up to 3,000 tons of uranium.
The project was a central pillar of the high-stakes closed-door meeting between President Samia and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow. The cooperation is now expanding beyond raw mining. While speaking at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), President Samia confirmed that Tanzania is officially in active negotiations with Rosatom to design and build small modular nuclear power plants (SMPs) in Tanzania. This would mark a significant change in the country’s long-term clean energy mix strategy, pivoting Tanzania from a simple exporter of raw radioactive ore into a future domestic consumer of peaceful nuclear technology.
Dangote oil refinery under negotiations – to be based where?
President Samia Suluhu Hassan held talks with Nigerian billionaire Aliko Dangote at the State House in Dar es Salaam on May 16. The visit came at a time when there is debate in East Africa on which country would host a proposed $15 billion to $17 billion oil refinery.
The refinery, still in its planning and expansion phase, is being viewed as a potential game changer for East Africa, a region that remains heavily dependent on imported refined fuel, despite having significant crude oil reserves. If it comes to fruition, the project could reshape fuel supply chains, reduce import dependency, and strengthen industrial capacity across the region.
Mr. Aliko Dangote says the refining capacity could reach 2.1 million barrels per day by 2030, positioning it among the world’s largest refining operators.
Addressing the Tanzania Parliament in Dodoma on May 5, 2026, Kenyan President William Ruto described Tanga as an ideal location for the project, citing its strategic position and the need to strengthen regional integration. However, Mr Dangote himself told the Financial Times that he was leaning towards Mombasa, Kenya, citing the city’s deep-water port, stronger logistics infrastructure and growing regional demand.
The facility is designed to process crude oil from regional producers, including Uganda and Kenya, as well as imported crude for markets stretching to Ethiopia and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
The development also comes as Tanzania and Uganda finalise the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP), which runs from Hoima in Uganda to Chongoleani in Tanga Region. Uganda’s Hoima oil fields are expected to produce about 230,000 barrels of oil per day once commercial production begins later this year.
Mr Dangote is a prominent Nigerian industrialist and the founder and CEO of the Dangote Group, a multi-industry West African conglomerate. Consistently ranked as Africa’s wealthiest individual, his fortune, estimated at more than $32 billion, stems from a diverse industrial portfolio spanning cement manufacturing, sugar refining, agriculture, and a newly opened mega oil refinery in Nigeria. Widely regarded as a key driver of the continent’s self-sufficiency, Dangote’s business model focuses on building large-scale, domestic manufacturing operations to displace imported goods across sub-Saharan Africa.
In East Africa, Dangote’s established presence is anchored heavily by his multi-country cement manufacturing network, with major active plants and distribution operations in Ethiopia and Kenya, as well as Tanzania. Building on this footprint, his interests have aggressively expanded into the regional energy sector, including the proposed new refinery. Additionally, his Nigerian refinery has already begun exporting refined petroleum products and jet fuel directly into East African markets, positioning his conglomerate to reshape the region’s fuel supply chains.
Long awaited LNG plant agreement imminent?
There are signs that the long-awaited investment agreement for construction of a Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) processing plant in Lindi might be imminent. In early 2026, Energy Minister Deogratius Ndejembi said that “commercial agreements have been reached, tax agreements have been reached, and now we are at the legal stage.” Officials said they were explicitly targeting June 2026 to formally sign the finalised Host Government Agreement (HGA).
Once the HGA is signed, the project enters a 2-to-3-year Pre-FEED (Front-End Engineering and Design) phase before a Final Investment Decision (FID) can be officially declared. An eight-year development timeline projects first production around 2034.
While an initial framework agreement was celebrated back in 2022, the project effectively stalled in late 2023 and 2024. The main driver was a wave of economic nationalism left over from previous administrations, which collided with a major push by President Samia Suluhu Hassan to restore investor confidence.
The international consortium, led by Shell and Equinor, alongside ExxonMobil, Pavilion Energy, and Medco Energi, demanded ironclad legal protections against the government unilaterally changing tax laws or fiscal terms midway through the project’s 40-year lifespan. Equinor had previously taken a $1 billion write-down on the project due to regulatory uncertainty, making them highly cautious.
Regulatory changes under President Samia Suluhu Hassan’s administration have reduced international investors’ concerns around political risk, reversing policies that previously discouraged foreign energy investment.
Another of the final legal hurdles was determining where disputes would be settled. The energy majors insisted on international arbitration clauses (such as in London or ICSID), while local legal frameworks historically favoured local or regional courts.
A further sticking point was exactly how much gas the consortium would be forced to reserve for Tanzania’s domestic market (for local power generation, manufacturing, and fertilizer plants) versus how much they could freely export to lucrative markets in Europe and Asia.
Rare Earth minerals
Tanzania has emerged as a significant player in the global geopolitical tug-of-war for magnet rare earths (specifically Neodymium and Praseodymium used in EVs and wind turbines).
The country’s flagship critical mineral asset is the Ngualla rare earth project, in Songwe Region, approximately 147km from Mbeya. This is reportedly one of the world’s premier undeveloped rare earth deposits.
Ngualla is operated by Mamba Minerals Corporation Ltd (MML), 84% owned by Peak Rare Earths. Shenghe Resources, a Chinese state-linked rare earth producer, holds a 20% stake in Peak Rare Earths and launched a full acquisition bid in May 2025. If completed, Ngualla would pass to Chinese control.
Ngualla is expected to become an important future source of magnet rare earths used in electric vehicles, wind turbines, robotics and defence systems. As competition intensifies among China, the West, and increasingly Russia, this aspect of Tanzania’s mineral endowment may become a highly significant resource and geopolitical story going forward.
Project financing for the US$320 million capital investment is being ironed out under the new ownership. Under existing binding agreements, 100% of Ngualla’s high-grade rare earth concentrate will flow into Chinese downstream processing infrastructure, with a targeted first production window hovering between late 2026 and 2027.
Meanwhile, in May 2026, the government announced a highly significant new discovery of strategic rare earths in Njombe Region. Exploration is moving quickly under a joint venture with Chinese firm Hongji Mining Co. Ltd.
Helium declared a “critical mineral”
In May 2026, Minister for Minerals Anthony Mavunde officially classified helium as a “Critical and Strategic Mineral”, establishing tighter state oversight and high-priority development status.
Also in May, the government signed a landmark Gas Extraction Agreement with Helium One, forming a joint venture called Songwe Helium Limited. The government took a 17% statutory free-carried equity stake. Backed by highly competitive concentrations of up to 7.6% helium discovered during tests, the project is on an 18-month roadmap targeting commercial production by November 2027.
The main reason for Tanzania’s heightened focus on helium stems from the gas’s critical importance and unique properties. Helium has no practical synthetic substitute and is indispensable in various high-tech industries, including MRI medical imaging systems, scientific research, semiconductor manufacturing, fibre optics, aerospace and emerging fields like quantum computing.
Global helium demand currently exceeds six billion cubic feet annually and is projected to surpass 8.5 billion cubic feet by 2030. Supply remains concentrated among a few key producers, notably the United States and Qatar, which together account for over 75% of the world’s output. Recent supply disruptions, including Russia’s halt on exports and production issues in Qatar, have highlighted the vulnerability of global helium supply chains, making new, reliable sources like Tanzania increasingly attractive.