THE HISTORICAL BACKGROUND

In a paper published in Oxford University Press’s African Affairs in August 2005 Ben Rawlence gave the background to the unhappy history of elections in Zanzibar. Extracts:
The 2000 elections were cancelled and then re-run but were subsequently boycotted by the opposition. In the 1995 elections the official margin between the CCM and CUF was only 0.4%.
Before that, the last elections held on the islands under a British mandate in 1963 precipitated a revolution. British gerrymandering ensured a victory for the Zanzibar National Party (ZNP) in alliance with another party. Despite forming a government, these twp parties only commanded 46% of the national vote, whereas the Afro-Shirazi Party (ASP) won 54%. The ZNP with its roots among Zanzibar’s elite, left the constitutional monarchy unchanged and the Sultan on his throne. After only a month, the Government and the Sultan were overthrown in the bloody revolution of January 1 1964. The ‘Revolutionary (now CCM) Government’ of Zanzibar has ruled ever since.
Zanzibar’s first President, Abeid Karume, agreed to the establishment of a Union between Zanzibar and the mainland of Tanzania creating the new state called Tanzania in 1964. The second President, Aboud Jumbe, supervised the union between the mainland’s Tanzanian African National Union (TANU) party and the ASP, forming the Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM – the Party of the Revolution) in 1977.
Some observers see the current political division between CCM and the CUF as nothing more than a reincarnation of the old 1963 divisions. However, although these historical associations undoubtedly have some relevance to older voters, well over half the voters were born since the Revolution and around 45% are under 30. Rawlence goes on: In fact, the current divisions between the two parties are more rooted in events that have taken place since 1964. In the 1963 elections, the ASP won 44% of the vote in the northern island of Pemba but only two seats. At the elections in 2000 and by-elections in Pemba of 2003, CCM’s own official figures put their share of the vote at around 15%. On Unguja island, the south and central regions have remained faithful to CCM but Zanzibar town and parts of the north that were always oriented towards the mainland, have now become either CUF seats or marginal seats. CUF officials claim that of the 32 seats on Unguja, they now have a majority of potential voters in 13. CCM denies this but some CCM officials are said to privately accept the figures. It was after CCM appeared to be losing the supposedly safe CCM seat of Rahaleo in the 2000 elections that police were ordered to seize ballot boxes and the election was cancelled.

PARTY POLICIES
In all previous elections in Tanzania the emphasis has been on personalities rather than polices. This election might be different.
President Karume claims to have done much during his first term. He refers to the Chake Chake Road in Pemba linking Mkoani port with the rest of the towns and villages in the area; improved water supplies; achievement of Millennium Development Goals in education – every child who is at the age of going to school goes to school. Karume has also eased political tensions with the result that international donors have resumed aid. He plans to complete the construction of the Michenzani flats – work stopped during the First Phase Government under his father.
CUF, which is a member party of ‘Liberal International’, is proposing some radical new polices, especially in its Zanzibar stronghold. These include privatisation of the clove industry and the other state-run organisations including those concerned with oil, insurance, tourism, together with lots of public housing and the state farms which were established after the 1964 revolution.

WHAT WILL HAPPEN THIS TIME IN ZANIBAR?
CCM has admitted that holding on to power in Zanzibar is going to be difficult but there is a lot at stake for both parties and it is this factor which creates the political tension for which Zanzibar is renowned.
Acccording to Rawlence, CCM is divided about the causes of its woes. Presidents Karume and Mkapa say that the opposition is fuelled by troublemakers who are intent on power at any cost. In recent speeches, they have both called the opposition, ‘people of violence’. They have suggested that CUF is motivated variously by Islamic fundamentalism, Zanzibari nationalist secessionism and foreign intervention from the Gulf States as well as Britain. However, according to Dr Mohamed Bilal, former CCM Chief Minister, who recently challenged incumbent President Karume for the 2005 CCM presidential nomination, the President has failed to deliver on CCM’s promises to the people. Bilal was persuaded to withdraw his challenge by President Mkapa at the last minute before the final vote at the National Executive Committee of CCM in Dodoma on 3rd May.

Seif Sharrif Hamad (CUF Presidential Candidate)

Rawlence quotes CUF Zanzibar Presidential candidate, Seif Shariff Hamad, as saying that CCM is guilty of corruption and economic mismanagement; discrimination against people of Arab or Pemban ethnicity; ceding too much sovereignty to the Union government over energy, customs duties, and security; and politicization of the security forces and civil service as well as abuse of human rights.
In October 2001, following the violent January riots, CCM and CUF signed a historic agreement, called ‘Muafaka’ (see earlier issues of Tanzanian Affairs – Editor) which provided a framework for ensuring free and fair elections in 2005. Since then a constitutional amendment has been passed, the electoral laws have been reviewed and the Zanzibar Electoral Commission (ZEC) has been overhauled. ZEC has just completed a nationwide computerized registration process to create a permanent voters’ register.

President Amani Abeid Karume (CCM Zanzibar Presidential Candidate)

However, other Muafaka provisions including a reform of the judiciary have not been implemented according to CUF, the police and security organs are still heavily politicized and compensation promised to the victims of the shootings of January 2001 has not been paid. The Muafaka Committee has started meeting again on a regular basis which is encouraging news.
Many observers believe that a government of national unity is the only solution for Zanzibar but CCM has said that it is opposed to this. Continue reading →