SPORT

Posted on May 1, 2015 by editor

by Philip Richards

Cross Country
Five Tanzanian athletes took part in the world cross-country championships held in Beijing in late March. Hopes were raised that the lean spell since the last time the country won a medal – 1991 when Andrew Sambu triumphed at the Antwerp Championship in Belgium – could end. Whilst there were no medals, the team finished a respectable sixth position in a competition which attracted 410 athletes from 51 nations with Ismail Juma one of the better performing athletes. The post mortem will again focus on the need for more adequate preparation time. (The Guardian 30/3/15)

Football
The drive to find and develop world class players of the future has been strengthened, thanks to a ground-breaking deal worth TSh 16bn between the National Social Security Fund (NSSF) and Spain’s football giants Real Madrid to construct an ultra-modern sports complex in Kigamboni, on the outskirts of Dar es Salaam. (The Citizen, 27/1/15)

NSSF director general, Ramadhan Dau revealed that the construction of the NSSF Sports Centre would get underway in the next four weeks. The NSSF-Real Madrid Sports Academy project is the second in the country after the Kidongo Chekundu academy being constructed by Symbion Power and English Premier League side, Sunderland FC.

Not so good news for the national side Taifa Stars who have fallen to 107th in the latest FIFA rankings (Daily News 10/4/15). The next goal is to qualify for the 2017 Africa Cup of Nations which is a tough group with Nigeria and Egypt (45th and 51st respectively in the current rankings) included, along with Chad (151st).

Cricket
The senior national cricket team’s delivered a lacklustre performance in this year’s ICC Africa Twenty20 Division 1 Qualifiers in South Africa, which brought together the top six associate members in the continent: Botswana, Ghana, Kenya, Namibia, Tanzania and Uganda.

Namibia and Kenya, who finished in the top two spots of the tournament, have secured qualification for the World Twenty20 Qualifiers in Ireland and Scotland later this year, where the top six teams will qualify for the 2016 ICC World Twenty20 finals in India. Tanzania finished last after suffering defeat in all matches to now face relegation to the ICC Africa Twenty20 Division 2 Qualifiers. An anonymous player is quoted as citing lack of competitive friendlies, financial backing, and throwing talented but inexperienced players into high profile tournaments too quickly, as some areas that needed to be addressed by management. (Guardian, 3/4/15)

AGRICULTURE

Posted on May 1, 2015 by editor

by David Brewin

Improving banana production
According to the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture, Uganda and Tanzania produce over 50% of all bananas grown in Africa and the crop is valued at $4.3 billion.

However, banana production achieves only 9% of its potential yield. A new $3.8 billion project, supported by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation is planned to begin in June 2015 and is intended to support on-the-farm testing of newly developed banana hybrids and improvements in the technical capacity of the banana breeding programmes. The project will also support a number of students in PhD and MSc level studies to assist in the management of the project.

Pastoralists v. farmers issue moves to parliament
In the last edition of TA reference was made to the continuing clashes on land use between pastoralists and farmers. The issue came before parliament recently after the publication of a report.

MPs from livestock keeping areas sided with the herders while those coming from mainly agricultural areas blamed the herders for the land conflicts which have become common across the country. But there was a third groups of MPs who stood in the middle, blaming the government for not taking proper actions to implement laws and policies which should guide land management.

The debate soon became heated until Prime Minister Mizengo Pinda felt it necessary to warn that bias would create more problems and not help in finding solutions. He said that what was needed was friendly relation between the two groups to help them to live together peacefully.

Saving the Nile Perch
The population of Nile perch in Lake Victoria has been reduced from 1.2 million tonnes in the early 2000s to a mere 3,000 tonnes today.

It is a large fresh water fish introduced into Lake Victoria in 1954 to increase the fish population. Before the introduction of fish processing plants in the lake zone regions, Nile perch had little value and were favoured mainly by families that could not afford more expensive fish like Tilapia. But between 1992 and 2004 the status of the Nile perch rose dramatically due to demand from Europe following reports from scientists that the fish has omega-3 fatty acids which could help to check heart problems and high blood pressure. Now, 22 years later, over-fishing has drastically reduced Nile perch fish stocks.

Tanzania has been lobbying hard for Kenya and Uganda to support its own plan, called ‘Operation Save the Nile Perch’, to impose a six-month ban on fishing Nile perch over the next three years on its side of the Lake. This would replenish the stock, but leave its 200,000 fishermen without a livelihood for half the year and put $325 million in export earnings at risk. EU traders might look for alternative year-round sources of Nile perch. The plan would also affect hundreds of fish processing plants around the lake and threaten the nutrition of thousands of residents who depend on the Nile perch as a source of protein.

Sugar
In Tanzania about 50% of the sugar consumed is imported of which a proportion is smuggled into the country. In 2013/14 130,000 tonnes were expecting to be sold, compared with 103,000 tonnes in 2012/13. It is estimated that between 40,000 and 60,000 tonnes were imported illegally in 2014. Illegal sugar is hurting Tanzanian factories so much that some are at risk of being closed down.

Minister for Finance Saada Mkuya has announced that government will investigate the amount of taxes which are being lost through illegal imports and the impact of this on the sugar industry. Duty remission schemes would be changed after the investigations are complete. This move came after complaints from sugar producers that they had 55,000 tonnes of sugar in stock by December 2014 but were unable to sell it because the market was flooded with cheap imports.

The Kilombero Sugar Company, Tanzania’s biggest sugar factory has had a good year and has grown rapidly since it was privatised in 1998 when its production was 38,000 tonnes. The most recent figures indicate that 1.2 million tonnes was produced last year of which 700,000 tonnes of cane came from its own operations and 500,000 tonnes from independent out-growers.

Sugar producers in East Africa are forming an association to raise funds to help the region become self-sufficient by 2030 according to Executive Chairman of Agro Eco Energy, Tanzania, a subsidiary of a Swedish-based firm that has invested $550 million in sugarcane farming in Bagamoyo.

Onions, Avocados and Rice
The chair of the Tanzania Women’s Chamber of Commerce Fatma Riyami, led a group of business women to the Gulf Food Exhibition in Dubai in February. They came back with smiling faces as they reported that they had received orders for 1,000 tonnes of onions from Dubai firms, two containers of avocados from Qatar and rice from Oman. “It is high time Tanzanian growers acted rapidly and got a firm grip on this opportunity” she said.

‘Taking the Spice out of Cloves’
In an article in its January 2015 issue, African Business has explored the clove industry in Zanzibar. It said that cloves have been a major foreign exchange earner in Zanzibar for the last 150 years and they continue to be an agricultural mainstay of the island as the major cash crop. However, production figures continue to register a steady decline from an average of 16,000 tonnes in the 1970s to between 1,500 and 3,500 tonnes in 2013.

Part of the problem is the government’s ‘chokehold’ on the sector, despite the relaxation of some protectionist policies. The Zanzibar Minister for Commerce, Industry and Marketing said: “We cannot let the farming of cloves go into private hands because the commodity is the symbol of Zanzibar”. He added that free market operations would spell the death of the sector by subjecting it to price fluctuations and profit motives. In April 2014 Zanzibar’s President in a “State of the Nation” report, spoke of how his government would annually distribute one million clove seedlings for the next three years as part of a plan to enhance production.

But the uncompetitive prices that the government offers farmers have seen some hoard their harvest, sell it on the black market, turn their trees into firewood or charcoal or start farming other products like coconuts which can be traded freely. The clamour for a liberalised market however continues to be ignored and in January 2015 the House of Representatives endorsed a new Cloves Act that discourages clove growers from making charcoal or otherwise consuming clove trees.

The decline in production may adversely affect the island’s booming tourism earnings since visits to clove farms have become a cornerstone of the island’s tour packages.

TANZANIA IN THE INTERNATIONAL MEDIA

Posted on May 1, 2015 by editor

by Donovan McGrath
Editor’s Note: This section of Tanzanian Affairs, is very popular with readers, as it includes interesting and often moving stories that readers can relate to. It is reliant on the contributions by the TA readership, and it would be greatly appreciated if you could send in any news items you find concerning Tanzania. We would also like to hear your comments on any items published in TA.

The South China Post (Hong Kong) continues its news on the illegal ivory trade in East Africa (see TA107 and TA110 ). Many thanks to Ronald Blanche for these latest articles of interest – Editor

For man and beast
The main focus of this feature, written by Sarah Lazarus, is Richard Leakey’s involvement in wildlife conservation in Kenya, which is to be depicted in the forthcoming blockbuster movie Africa by Angelina Jolie. However, the following extract is edited to focus on Chinese interest in ivory.

[The movie] Africa is loosely based on Wildlife Wars, Leakey’s memoir of the late 1980s and early 90s, when he successfully combated ivory poaching in Kenya… “The threat to elephants is greater than it’s ever been,” says Leakey. “It’s partly because the human population in Kenya has increased and people need to make a livelihood, but particularly because the economies of Asian countries, especially China, has grown exponentially. Ivory is a part of Chinese culture and history — it’s a commodity that indicates a certain status.

If we’re serious about saving a species as important and symbolic as the elephant, then we’ve got to bite the bullet and say, ‘We don’t need ivory.’ It’s complete and utter nonsense to say, ‘We need it.’ What modern society needs is a healthy environment across the planet, and that includes elephants.” It is estimated that 33,000 African elephants are killed for their ivory every year… Last year a tipping point was reached; more elephants are now being killed than are being born. With only 350,000 left in the wild, they could be driven to extinctions within a decade. (South China Sunday Morning Post 1 March 2015)

China urged to end trade in ivory
British naturalist David Attenborough [writes Bryan Harris] has joined some 70 high-profile figures, including the comedian Ricky Gervais and the conservationist Richard Leakey, to urge China to help end the ivory trade. They have signed an open letter to President Xi Jinping, asking him to outlaw the trade and educate people about the true deadly cost of ivory. “The elephants of Africa are dying in their tens of thousands every year to provide ivory for misguided consumers in China and elsewhere. Without your help, they will continue to perish and be pushed towards extinction.” The signatories include 39 members of the British parliament… (South China Sunday Morning Post 1 March 2015 – Hong Kong)

E-commerce sites ‘advertising ivory sale’
China’s e-commerce websites are carrying thousands of adverts for illegal wildlife products, including ivory, rhino horn and tiger bone. (South China Morning Post 4 March 2015)

The elephant in the room
Every year, thousands of elephants are killed for their tusks in Tanzania, and the trade of their ivory is sophisticated, global and hugely lucrative. In March 2013, after China’s President Xi Jinping toured Tanzania on a state visit, he and his fellow officials left the country with plenty of good will, a pile of signed cooperation deals, and some warm memories. But according to allegations in an investigation conducted by the Environmental Investigation Agency (EIA), the Chinese delegation also left with a large amount of illegal ivory… while President Xi was mingling with Tanzania’s elite, officials reportedly took advantage of the reduced checks for diplomatic visits to take bags full of ivory back to China…… [I]n some Chinese traditions, ivory as well as many other animal parts are thought to have medicinal qualities…. these beliefs are often compounded with ignorance about how the items are actually harvested. The Chinese word for ivory literally translates as “elephant teeth” and there is a widespread misperception that ivory can be taken without killing the animal… (New African January 2015 – UK)

The African Wildlife Foundation has contracted a Tanzanian-based group to train sniffer dogs and handlers for canine detection units at ports and border crossings. An aerial census in 2013 found that elephant numbers had declined to just over 13,000 from over 39,000 in 2009. Despite national efforts by Kenya and Tanzania, poaching is still rampant … (East African)

Families seek safe havens for albino children
Kizito Makoye writes: … Buhangija centre in Shinyanga, which shelters children with special needs, said the number of albino children seeking protection had almost doubled to 218 from 115 Witch doctors will pay as much as $75,000 for a full set of body parts from an albino, according to a Red Cross report.

Beatrice Lema, 16, an albino girl whose parents brought her to the Buhangija centre … from the neighbouring Simiyu region, said she feels much safer there than at home. “I don’t want to die, I want to stay safe. I have a lot of friends to play with and I believe no one will come to hurt me here,” There is growing outrage over the lack of protection for albinos —only five successful prosecutions to date … (Thomson Reuters Foundation trust.org 25 February 2015)

Warship that inspired ‘African Queen’ still going at 100
Once a feared gunship defending an African lake for Kaiser Wilhelm II of Germany, the legendary vessel — which inspired the 1951 classic “The African Queen” — has been sunk and refloated twice, renamed and repurposed as a ferry. The MV Liemba began its life in a shipyard in Papenburg, Germany, in 1913 where it was named the Graf von Götzen after German East Africa’s former governor… As it marks 100 years of service, the MV Liemba [see TA98], originally a symbol of colonial power, is now an essential lifeline for the people who live along the lakeshore…

The tale of the warship and the battle for Lake Tanganyika inspired British novelist C.S. Forester to write his 1935 novel “The African Queen”, later adapted by Hollywood in the movie of the same name starring Humphrey Bogart and Katherine Hepburn… The MV Liemba may not stay afloat much longer without a complete overhaul… But it may be cheaper to simply replace it with a new ferry, ending a century of fascinating history… (news@yahoo.com 19 February 2015)

Cardiff hotel murder suspect found
A man suspected of murdering a woman in a Cardiff hotel room on New Year’s Eve has been arrested by police in Tanzania. Sammy Almahri, 44, from New York, was wanted following the discovery of 28-year-old Nadine Aburas’s body at the Future Inn, Cardiff Bay. An international search was launched and officers from South Wales Police major crime unit were sent to Tanzania to work with local police. They were able to trace Almahri’s movements over hundreds of kilometers across the country.” Extradition proceedings will now begin… (bbc.com 20 January 2015)

Illegal logging threatens tree species with extinction
Over 70% of wood harvested in forests is unaccounted for, causing huge losses of government revenue. Illegal loggers are slipping into forests at night and transferring their natural wealth to highly organised syndicates, seemingly with impunity… Indigenous tree species such as mninga and mpodo are facing local extinction due to high demand for their wood in the construction and furniture industries. (theguardian.com 14 January 2015)

TPDF operating Seabird Seeker aircraft
Writes Gareth Jennings and Lindsay Peacock. The Tanzanian People’s Defence Force (TPDF) Air Wing has received into service the Seabird SB7L-360 Seeker surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) aircraft. A video of local musicians singing in front of items of Tanzanian military hardware shows a Seeker aircraft with the serial number JW-9704. This suggests that at least four such aircraft may have been received.

Prior to this, Tanzania was not believed to have such reconnaissance aircraft, the TPDF inventory being made up almost entirely of Chinese-built fighter jets, trainers and transport aircraft. (janes.com 7 January) Built by Seabird Australia and Seabird Jordan, the Seeker is a small single-engine aircraft with a crew of two, a cruising speed of 200 mph and a range of 500 miles.

Taarab music school in Zanzibar
In Zanzibar, taarab music is finding new patrons and audiences. Musician Mohammed Issa Matona has been the driving force in the music’s continued popularity… Taarab was born from a rich mosaic of Indian Ocean influences… In 2002, the desire to preserve this music led Matona and violinist Hildegard Kiel to create the Dhow Countries Music Academy, Zanzibar’s first music school… In just over a decade, more than a thousand students have passed through the school’s doors… (Africa Report April 2015)

Pay-as-you-go Solar

Mpower operative with solar cell

Despite their relative prosperity, until 2013 the Nosim Noah family had no electricity. “We waited 10 years for them to turn the power on – 10 years and nothing,” says Noah. Then, one afternoon, the Noahs had an unexpected knock on the door. An agent from a new electrical company M-POWER said that, for a sign-up fee of only $6 he could install a fully functioning solar system in their house – enough to power several LED lights and a radio. The payoff was immediate. While Noah’s wife used to spend $18 a month on kerosene, she now pays a monthly average of $11 for her solar lighting, and she no longer has to go into town to charge her cellphone…

The idea is not to electrify every appliance in a household. Instead, it is to install a small solar panel not much bigger than an iPad to power a few lights, a cellphone charger, and other basic necessities that can still significantly alter people’s lives. Going smaller better fits the budgets of the rural poor. People use the money they normally would spend on kerosene to finance their solar systems, allowing them to pay in small, affordable instalments and not rely on government help. (Christian Science Monitor Weekly 26 January – photo from article)

OBITUARIES

Posted on May 1, 2015 by editor

by Ben Taylor

Captain John Komba, band leader of Tanzania One Theatre (TOT) and Member of Parliament for Mbinga West, died on 28 February. He was a hugely popular musician and one of the foremost cheerleaders for CCM. He was most in his element when belting out songs in praise of the country’s leaders and the party. He and his team were a crowd puller and when he stood to sing, crowds literally sung along in hysteria.

Capt Komba was born in 1954 in Ruvuma region. He studied at Lituhi Primary School and Songea Boys’ Secondary School before earning a certificate in teaching from Kleruu Teacher Training College in Iringa. He served in the Tanzania People’s Defence Force from 1978 to 1992. He had been a CCM National Executive Committee member since 1987 and entered elective politics in 2005. He had already been highly active in CCM campaigns for many years, a close ally of Presidents Mkapa and Kikwete, and most recently of presidential aspirant Edward Lowassa. Up to his death, he was CCM’s Chief Cultural ambassador.

Many Tanzanians will remember Captain Komba most for his response to the death of Mwalimu Nyerere in 1999. With tears in their eyes like most of their compatriots, Captain Komba and his troupe led the nation in grief with songs based on choral traditions. They captured in a vivid and moving manner the challenge Tanzanians faced: living without Mwalimu.“CCM will always remember Komba for his contributions to the party and to issues that were of national interest; he was a friend, father, musician, politician and all in all a leader” said CCM General Secretary, Abdurahman Kinana.

Christopher Alex Massawe, a former midfield player with Simba Sports Club and the national football team Taifa Stars, died in Dodoma after a long illness.

An uncompromising defensive midfielder, Alex’s most memorable moment was being a member of Simba team that knocked out the then CAF Champions League champions Zamalek of Egypt to book a place in the last eight. He converted the last penalty to seal the historic win. Simba had previously disposed of South African champions Santos in the first round on their way to the group stage of the premium club competition on the continent.

Alhaj Abdul Sapi Mkwawa was chief of the Hehe tribe of Iringa. He was buried within Kalenga Museum premises, in a ceremony that also included the installation of his successor, 14-year old Chief Adam II, who is his first born son.

The late chief was born in 1949. He studied at Tosamaganga in Iringa and Iyunga Secondary in Mbeya, before joining the school named in honour of his famous ancestor, Mkwawa High School.

He studied for a degree in business administration before working with Tanzania Elimu Supplies between 1977 and 1993, Tanzania Southern Highlands Tobacco Growers in 1993. Most recently, he was an employee of the Iringa-based Maji Africa spring water company.

Geoffrey Delves Wilkinson who died on 7 June 2014 aged 87, was prominent in agricultural activities in Tanzania, off and on for almost fifty years. He started his career as the District Agricultural Officer in Zanzibar and later in Pemba (where he received the Queen’s Coronation Medal). Later he set up the agricultural education department of the British Overseas Development Ministry in London, his responsibilities covering all aspects of agricultural training, especially in Tanzania. He built on his strong ties with Tanzanian institutes of agriculture, particularly Tengeru, near Arusha, by setting up a link project and exchange programme with the Hereford diocese in the UK. He was a born story teller and a passionate naturalist and relished his role in training hundreds, if not thousands of students in agricultural skills in 29 countries.

Prof Terence Ranger, the first editor of Tanzanian Affairs, editing issues No 1 (Dec 1975) to 6 (July 1978), died on 3 January 2015. He spent most of his career researching and publishing on the history of Zimbabwe, though he is probably better known as co-editor (with Eric Hobsbawm) of the 1983 text, The Invention of Tradition.

Born in London in 1929, he was appointed as university lecturer in the then Southern Rhodesia in 1957. Deported from Rhodesia in 1963, Ranger joined the University of Dar es Salaam, to establish its history department. He joined a group of radical scholars, and talk of a ‘Dar es Salaam school’ of African nationalist history. This was defined by a commitment to African agency in its historical analysis and to the production of ‘useable’ history for the newly independent nations of Africa.

From Tanzania, Ranger went on to professorships at UCLA, Manchester and Oxford. In retirement, he returned to bolster the history department of the University of Zimbabwe in Harare, where he again found himself aligned with the victims of the state. He returned to Britain in 2001.

Mr T O (Dale) Robson, who died recently, worked in Tanganyika from 1950 to 1961. He served at various agricultural research stations as a Pasture Research Officer. He advised the Commission on the establishment of the Serengeti National Park and whether it would be necessary to exclude the Maasai. It was finally decided to improve conditions by clearing the tsetse-infested bush, improving water supplies, increasing disease control measures for the cattle and introducing regular cattle markets. (Thank you Hilary Broad for this – Editor)

Dr Alec Smith (1927 -2014) was a graduate of Birmingham University (BSc. Zoology and Comparative Physiology (1948)) and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (Ph.D. Tropical Medicine 1950)). He joined the Colonial Medical Research Service and worked as a medical entomologist in Tanganyika from 1950-1973, including 13 years in Arusha at the Tropical Pesticides Research Institute.

In 1973 Alec joined the World Health Organisation and, after leaving Arusha, worked on malaria control projects in South Africa (19731976) and West Africa (1973-1980). He was then assigned to Geneva headquarters, where he remained until 1986 when he retired. In 1982, he was awarded the Ademola Medal, jointly with Dr Robert Kaiser, by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine for “Outstanding Achievements in Health in the Tropics”. In 1993, Alec published his memoirs entitled “Insect man – A Fight against Malaria in Africa”.

Alec enjoyed a happy 28 years retirement in Bexhill-On-Sea, Sussex. He is greatly missed by Irene, his wife of 60 years, his daughters Linda and Diana and his grandchildren, Allison, Elizabeth and Claire. (Thanks to Dr Linda Thomas for this information – Editor).

REVIEWS

Posted on May 1, 2015 by editor

by Martin Walsh

Martin Walsh has taken over as editor of the TA reviews section from John Cooper-Poole. The editorial team would like to thank John again for the wonderful job he has done since 2002. Correspondence about past, pending and future reviews should now be addressed directly to Martin (kisutuvirginmediacom).

COTTON IN TANZANIA: BREAKING THE JINX. Joe C. B. Kabissa. Tanzania Educational Publishers, Bukoba, 2014. 338 pp. (paperback). ISBN 9789987070077. Available from African Books Collective, £24.95.

The right strategy for cotton in Tanzania has been a key issue for the agricultural sector both before and after independence. The question is complex and many observers and participants have contributed analyses which were specific to their time. Dr Joe Kabissa has now written a comprehensive account of the growth of the industry since German times up to the present day. Kabissa is uniquely qualified for this task, being an entomologist who has served both as head of cotton research at Ukiriguru and Ilonga and as Director of the Tanzania Cotton Board, retiring in 2012, He has a very broad knowledge of the global cotton sector and is also that rare ex-civil servant who is prepared to criticise in public his former political masters.

The challenges facing the industry have always been both scientific (pests, viruses and yields) and institutional. Alongside these has been the critical issue of farm-level cropping options: what are the relative margins of cotton, maize, and rice in an ever-changing world and domestic market? These issues have not prevented nearly half a million small farmers growing cotton in a ‘good’ year, such as 2005/6 when a record total of 376,000 tons of seed cotton was achieved.

The potential value of the crop to the national economy was first recognised by the German colonial government which saw the eastern belt (Moshi to Iringa) as the principal home of the industry, with plantations linked to compulsory labour. The British government pushed the industry into the Lake Zone, focusing research at Ukiriguru, managed by the British (later Empire) Cotton Growing Association. In the1950s, with high commodity prices, this policy was largely successful, with rising yields and an increasingly viable institutional structure in the Victoria Federation of Co-operative Unions (VFCU). This owned its own ginneries, exported most of the crop to the UK and was led by luminaries like Paul Bomani.

For the first decade after independence this format was preserved and production continued to rise. However, the big changes mandated by CCM in the structure of co-operatives in the 1970s proved immensely debilitating to the VFCU (now the Nyanza Co-operative Union, NCU). The donor-led ultraliberal reforms of the late 80s and 90s reduced the NCU to a rump organisation and created destructive competition between about 30 ginners, eventually leading to a five per cent discount on the world price for Tanzanian cotton lint. A parallel history had taken place in textile manufacturing, with substantial investments in joint ventures by the National Development Corporation and seven foreign companies, nearly all of which were privatised in the 1990s with similarly disappointing results. However, at least two new private companies have emerged and perform impressively.

Kabissa deals with both the detail and the broader policy issues in an impressive way. He is very clear that high quality research in the 1950s and 60s facilitated the development of improved varieties with resistance to the critical pest and viral threats from bollworm and Fusarium wilt. This created a potentially powerful springboard for the sector. However, the national co-operative reforms of the 1970s were disastrous for the NCU and its members and underinvestment by government in research and development from the mid-1970s was grossly negligent. The lack of a policy on genetically modified cotton, embraced by Tanzania’s competitors, was an opportunity lost (for the time being). He shows how the cotton growing and textile manufacturing sectors have not been developed in recent years with any form of real interdependence in spite of a long-standing goal that 70 per cent of cotton should be spun and woven within Tanzania. In practice the low quality of lint supplied by the ginners and with its implications for yarn quality has locked the three or four weaving companies into production of kanga and kitenge cloth for a largely captive market.

Kabissa’s central point is that the huge potential of the cotton sector both from the point of view of farmers and the national economy has not been realised over more than a century of opportunity. With regard to the recent past he blames the lack of an effective strategy on government with its failure to build up the Tanzania Cotton Board as a regulator and driver of change. In particular he shows how repeated changes in the system for distributing inputs has created disillusionment among farmers who depend on an efficient system and for whom this a matter of economic survival. His conclusion, captured in the book’s subtitle, is that there seems to be a ‘jinx’ on real change, although he sees major possibilities in recent shifts to contract farming. Cotton in Tanzania is not only a courageous book, but sets an excellent precedent for seasoned professionals in Africa to take apart the failures of agricultural policy which continue to hold back output and rural security. This is a pioneering study, which deserves to be replicated in other sectors and countries.
Laurence Cockcroft

DISTRICT OFFICER IN TANGANYIKA: THE MEMOIRS OF DICK EBERLIE. PART 2: 1956-60. Dick Eberlie. Privately printed, 2014. 309 pp. (paperback). Available from the author (eberlie@vigomews.orangehome. co.uk).

This book about Dick Eberlie’s colonial service in Tanganyika is the second volume of his memoirs (the first was about his early life). He attended the Oxford Devonshire Course in 1956 when there were eight of us on the course, and towards the end of the year we held a riotous dinner in Oriel College at which we gave ourselves the whimsical name Haidhuru, ‘it doesn’t matter’. What none of us knew then was that Eberlie was minutely recording his daily life, and from this he has skilfully put together a coherent and interesting narrative of the period up to 1960 and the work that he did as a young District Officer.

We sailed to Tanganyika in July 1957 before dispersing to our various districts. Eberlie spent some months in Handeni District, where he had an amusing encounter with Governor Twining. He describes the extraordinary responsibilities given to him as a new DO when he was left on his own at district HQ. He then moved to Nzega District, where his work included the development of local water supplies, trading centres and the development of local government.

Then his health began to fail and he was moved to Ocean Road Hospital in Dar, having been diagnosed with TB. From this point on his account reads more like pages from the Tatler than that of a recovering patient. He began to get involved with Government House, and describes his first meetings with Lady Turnbull and later the Governor. When pronounced reasonably fit, he was posted to Kisarawe District, 1,000 feet higher than Dar and healthier. Reading about his safaris there I particularly admire the thoroughness of his work, which makes me feel quite idle. At different times he and I were presiding officers in the national elections at Shungubweni. In 1958, I waited all day for the twelfth registered voter to turn up and read the whole of Robert Graves’ Good-Bye To All That; Eberlie had much more usefully employed himself dealing with the sub-chief and local people.

This book will have a much wider appeal than to those of us who served together (only five of our original group of eight Overseas Service Course students now survive). It has been printed privately, has an attractive wrapper depicting palm trees, and includes excellent maps and numerous photographs.
Simon Hardwick

CAPITALISM AND CLOVES: AN ARCHAEOLOGY OF PLANTATION LIFE ON NINETEENTH-CENTURY ZANZIBAR. Sarah K. Croucher. Springer New York 2015. 256 pp (hardback) ISBN 978-1-4419-8470-8. £90.00.

Nineteenth-century European visitors to Zanzibar were wont to wax lyrical as they described the approach to Unguja (Zanzibar) by sea. First the scent of cloves, which had the explorer Richard Burton quoting from Milton’s Paradise Lost (“Sabaean odours from the spicy shore”); then the verdant island itself, which in the words of the second British Consul, Lieutenant-Colonel Rigby, “presented the appearance of an unbroken forest of cocoanut, mango and other trees, with the clove plantations on the hills forming the background”. Rigby continued to enthuse over the beauty of the rural landscape, though he left no doubt that this was a man-made scene in which the “country-houses of the Arab proprietors, and the huts of their slaves, are thickly dotted over the surface”. The larger part of his Report on the Zanzibar Dominions (1860) was about the iniquities of the slave trade and the need to suppress it. Happily, this was eventually achieved, though slavery has left an indelible mark on the society and politics of Zanzibar as well as the agricultural landscape of the islands. The smell of cloves still lingers around Zanzibar’s wharves.

As the Zanzibar government struggles to revive the fortunes of a crop that once dominated the economy, this is as good a time as any to begin digging into its past. Sarah Croucher’s Capitalism and Cloves is a brave book. It is based primarily on a surface survey of clove plantations in four areas of Unguja and Pemba islands, and the excavation of an Arab plantation owner’s house near Piki on Pemba. Chapters describe the regional context, Zanzibar’s plantation landscapes, the archaeology of slavery, plantation households, and the global trade and local ceramics associated with them. Croucher’s central argument is that the plantation economy of Zanzibar has to be understood on its own terms, not least because of the way in which slaves assimilated into Swahili society.

Croucher found that slavery is now relatively invisible in the archaeological record, while the presumed descendants of slaves have mostly forgotten the fact, and can only recite generalised narratives about the bad old days. As a result, she had far too little material to work with: the archaeology is thin, its interpretation often too speculative. The book is padded out with more information (and jargon) about the archaeology of the Atlantic world than many readers will be comfortable with. The author might have made much more use of recent anthropological and agricultural research on the islands. I was also surprised to find no reference to historical sources like Henry Stanley Newman’s Banani: The Transition from Slavery to Freedom in Zanzibar and Pemba (1898), or Robert Nunez Lyne’s Zanzibar in Contemporary Times (1905), which includes a nice description of the house of one of his Arab neighbours in Dunga. That said, Capitalism and Cloves is an original study that has much to recommend it. It raises important questions about Zanzibar’s past and its interpretation, is replete with interesting observations, and will no doubt be consulted by students and researchers for many years to come.
Martin Walsh

DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH

Posted on May 1, 2015 by editor

by Hugh Wenban-Smith

In the aftermath of the Holborn fire, the LSE library could not be accessed by your correspondent. However, Tanzania items in the African Studies Abstracts were provided by a kindly librarian.

An intensity analysis of land-use and land-cover change in Karatu District, Tanzania: John LR, H Hambati & FA Armah African Geographical Review, Vol 33 (2):

Land-use and Land-cover changes (LULCCs) are the result of complex interactions between the human (cultural, socio-economic and political) and the biophysical environment at different spatial scales. The present study assessed the spatial distribution of LULC (1976-2008) in the high and low altitude zones in the northern highlands of Karatu, using both qualitative (in-depth interviews and group discussions) and quantitative techniques (Intensity Analysis). The qualitative approach was used to elicit information on the coping strategies adopted by land users as transitions occurred with time and Intensity Analysis was used to assess the systematic land losses, gains and persistence of the various categories with time.

Iron Age agriculture, fishing and trade in the Mafia archipelago, Tanzania: New evidence from the Ukunju Cave: Crowther A & nine other authors Azania: Archaeological Research in Africa Vol 49 (1): Small-scale excavations were recently undertaken at the site of the Ukunju Cave in the Mafia archipelago to collect new bio-archaeological and material culture data relating to the site’s occupation and the nature of early subsistence and long-distance trade in the region. Our findings suggest that occupation of the cave began during the Middle Iron Age (seventh to tenth centuries AD), as indicated by the presence of Early Tana Tradition/Triangular Incised Ware pottery in the lowest layers above bedrock, as well as small quantities of imported ceramics and glass beads, also dating from the mid- to late first millennium AD. Small assemblages of faunal and botanical remains, including introduced African crops (pearl millet, sorghum, baobab and possibly cowpea) were found in association with these finds, indicating that these communities practised a mixed economy of fishing, domestic livestock keeping and agriculture. In addition, the presence of cotton suggests they may have also been producing fibres or textiles, most likely for local use, but possibly also for long distance trade.

A deposit of Kilwa-type coins from Songo Mnara, Tanzania: Perkins J, J Fleisher & S Wynne-Jones Azania: Archaeological Research in Africa Vol 49 (1): A deposit of coins was recovered during excavations at Songo Mnara, containing over 300 copper Kilwa-type coins. This is the first deposit or hoard of these coins found in a well-defined archaeological context and it therefore offers a unique glimpse into both the typology of these coins and their contemporary uses. … In particular, the deposit is firmly attributable to the end of the fourteenth or very early fifteenth centuries, allowing for some chronological resolution. Coins of the late eleventh to early twelfth century Sultan Ali ibn al-Hasan show that these types remained in circulation for several hundred years. In addition, the common coin type of Nasir ad-Dunya can now be attributed firmly to the fifteenth and possibly fourteenth centuries by this find.

Can your child read and count? Measuring learning outcomes in East Africa: Jones S, Y Schipper & R Rajani Journal of African Economies Vol 23 (5): The last 15 years have seen major changes to education systems in East Africa. Superficially, there is much to commend. Net primary enrolment rates have risen to over 90% alongside significant improvements in gender equity. Nonetheless, there are growing concerns that better access is not adding up to more learning. This paper introduces unique test score data collected by Twaweza’s Uwezo initiative for over 600,000 children across East Africa, including children enrolled and not enrolled in school. Using these data we show that many children in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda remain functionally illiterate or innumerate, despite having completed multiple years of school.

Industrial transformation or business as usual? Information and communications technologies and Africa’s place in the global information economy: Murphy JT, P Carmody & B Surborg Review of African Political Economy Vol 41 (140):

Many view information and communications technologies (ICTs) such as mobile phones, computers and the Internet as tools that can significantly strengthen the quality and depth of Africa’s engagement with the world economy. This paper interrogates the impacts of Africa’s burgeoning ICT ‘revolution’ through an examination of their use among small, medium and micro-scale enterprises (SMMEs) in South Africa’s and Tanzania’s wood products and tourism sectors. The findings reveal that while new ICTs are being adopted rapidly, they are generally used for communication purposes, not deeper forms of information processing and management. While positive in many ways, this has done little to stop a trend towards the devaluation of the goods and services provided by the SMMEs surveyed here. Moreover, ICTs are enabling new forms of outside intervention and intermediation unto African markets, often further marginalising local firms and industries

We also note here four recent reports by Tanzania’s think tank, REPOA (Policy Research for Development):

Rural non-farm activities and poverty alleviation in Tanzania: A case study of two villages in Chamwino and Bahi Districts of Dodoma region: Katega IB & CS Lifuliro (Research Report 14/7)

Socio-economic factors limiting smallholder groundnut production in Tabora region: Katundu MA & 3 other authors (Research Report 14/1)

The invisibility of wage employment in statistics on the informal economy in Africa: Causes and consequences: Rizzo M & M Wuyts (Working Paper
14/1)

Integrating traditional and modern knowledge systems in improving productivity in Upper Kitete village, Tanzania: Nawe J & H Hambati (Research Report 14/3).

LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

Posted on May 1, 2015 by editor

I am writing to correct and clarify some points in John Arnold’s review of Ralph Ibbott’s book published in the last issue of Tanzanian Affairs (issue 110, Jan to April 2015).

Firstly, the correct title of the book is: Ujamaa – The hidden story of Tanzanian’s socialist villages (and not, Ujamaa – The hidden story of Tanzania’s economic development from the grassroots).

Secondly, the reviewer uses the words co-operative and collective interchangeably, which confuses the history. The Ruvuma Development Association was a self-governing collective. It was not and never called itself a co-operative, a completely different set up in the Tanzanian context. Co-operatives introduced by the State were operating at the same time as the RDA was thriving, and were limited largely to marketing the produce of peasant farmers. They were often corrupt and not under the control of growers who were found to be very discontented (Cranford Pratt, 1976).

In contrast, in the RDA villages every member had an equal right to participate regularly in decision-making. Further, everyone – women, men, sick and elderly – received an equal share of the food produced and of any income raised. All able-bodied adults worked on the communal farms, where necessary after fulfilling other responsibilities, as collectively agreed.

Solveig Francis (on behalf of the Ujamaa Working Group, Crossroads Books)

The editors would like to encourage readers to send their responses to any of our articles. Letters can be sent by email to ben.d.taylorgmailcom.

TA ISSUE 110

Posted on January 1, 2015 by editor

TA 110 cover featured Zitto Kabwe addressing parliament (photo Deus Bonaventura http://mhagalle.blogspot.com/)

Energy Scandal claims two Senior Politicians
Tanzania & Extractives – another Twist ?
Agricultural Marketing – Make or Break ?

A pdf of the issue can be downloaded here

ENERGY SCANDAL CLAIMS TWO SENIOR POLITICIANS

Posted on January 1, 2015 by editor

by Ben Taylor

The CAG report dominated front pages on Nov 27th (millardayo.com)

For a week in November, the attention of Tanzania’s political scene was diverted away from the constitution and the 2015 elections and onto yet another energy sector corruption scandal – the IPTL Escrow case. The long-awaited report of the Controller and Auditor General (CAG) into the case was presented to the Parliamentary Accounts Committee (PAC) which in turn reported the key findings back to parliament.

That the report was presented at all was a triumph for parliamentary procedure and for a few determined MPs, including the Speaker, Anna Makinda, who resisted reported attempts by the judiciary, the Prime Minister and others to block the debate.

The scandal saw more than £116m taken from an escrow account at the Bank of Tanzania and transferred to offshore accounts held by private businessmen and government officials, according to Zitto Kabwe, the firebrand opposition (Chadema) MP and PAC chair. Kabwe presented the report to parliament together with the PAC deputy chair, Deo Filikunjombe (CCM).

The escrow account was opened in 2006, following a disagreement over charges to be paid by Tanesco, the national energy utility, to IPTL for emergency power generation. Tanesco was to deposit money in the account until such a time as the disagreement over charges could be resolved.

The ownership of IPTL has since changed hands, and a Tanzania-born Kenyan businessman, Harbinder Singh Sethi, now claims to be the legitimate owner of the firm, and that the funds in the escrow account were rightly his.

The case hinges principally on two issues: who is the rightful owner of IPTL, and did any or all of the money in the escrow account belong to the government and/or Tanesco?

The Parliamentary Accounts Committee said that irregularities in the sale of IPTL to Sethi’s company, Pan-African Power Solution (PAP) meant he was not the proper owner of the firm. Citing the support of the Controller and Auditor General, the Director General of the Prevention and Combatting of Corruption Bureau (PCCB) and the Commissioner of the Tanzania Revenue Authority (TRA), the committee argued that most of (or all) the funds in the escrow account were the rightful property of Tanesco.

Attorney General Frederick Werema, Minister of Energy and Minerals Professor Sospeter Muhongo, Prime Minister Mizengo Pinda and later President Kikwete all disagreed, arguing that Sethi was the owner of IPTL, and that the escrow account funds were his.

The case has already brought a heavy financial toll to Tanzania. In addition to the money allegedly stolen from the public purse, the UK and eleven other international donors have suspended $490m in general budget support for the current financial year, citing the slow pace of investigations into the case. More recently, the Millennium Challenge Corporation, a US aid agency, indicated that they were monitoring developments closely and warned that their decision on a new funding agreement – potentially several hundred million dollars – would depend on the Tanzanian government acting swiftly and decisively to combat corruption.

In presenting his committee’s report, Kabwe drew both shock and laughter as he explained that the Director General of PCCB had confirmed that people had collected funds in cash from the Mkombozi and Stanbic bank branches in plastic carrier bags, cardboard boxes, and sisal gunny sacks. As much as Tshs 73.5bn ($45m) was reportedly withdrawn on a single day in January 2014.

In his response to the parliamentary debate and resolutions, delayed by his health condition, President Kikwete spared the Minster of Energy and Minerals, Prof Muhongo, though parliament had called for his sacking. Instead, the President said that he has formed a team to investigate the Minister, and will make a decision once the team has reported back to him.

Prime Minister Pinda also survived when parliament revised the initial recommendation of the PAC that he should step aside.

In December the scandal claimed two senior scalps. Attorney General Werema, resigned on 17 December, though he denied any wrongdoing and said he was stepping down because his legal advice had been misunderstood. A few days later, President Kikwete sacked the Minster of Lands, Housing and Human Development Anna Tibaijuka for accepting a $1m payment from a Tanzanian businessman James Rugemalira, linked to the case.

Rugemalira had sold his 30% stake in IPTL to Sethi for $75m, and is alleged to have then transferred significant money into accounts held by a long list of public figures, including $1m to Mrs Tibaijuka. She does not deny receiving this amount, but claims that she was merely channelling the money onwards to a school. Other reported beneficiaries of Rugemalira’s generosity were senior political figures such as former Attorney General and veteran of the BAE-radar scandal, Andrew Chenge, two former Ministers of Energy and Minerals, William Ngeleja and Daniel Yona, and board members and employees of Tanesco, the Tanzania Revenue Authority, the Tanzania Investment Centre (TIC) and the Registration, Insolvency and Trusteeship Agency (RITA), as well as two judges and two bishops.

The political impact of the scandal, particularly in terms of the forthcoming elections may be significant. Pinda, a leading candidate for the CCM presidential nomination, has been weakened in the public eye. Anna Tibaijuka is no longer a viable candidate. The Speaker, Anna Makinda, an outside possibility for the nomination, surprised many with her strong handling of the affair – standing up to powerful figures, protecting parliamentary independence, and chairing heated discussions with considerable dexterity.

Other leading potential CCM candidates for the presidency did their best to stay out of the fray. Edward Lowassa and Bernard Membe were notably quiet, in public at least, and January Makamba spoke only in general terms that corruption should not be tolerated.

Though Chadema (aside from their renegade member, Zitto Kabwe,) was late to exploit the case, the party is likely to pick up some votes from the affair, simply because it makes CCM look bad.

Beyond the presidential race, several MPs’ reputations were enhanced. David Kafulila (NCCR-Mageuzi) earned plaudits for his long-standing campaign to bring this case to public attention. Zitto Kabwe’s forensic skill and determined handling of the PAC has been noted, and there are signs of a possible thawing of his previously frosty relations with his Chadema party leaders. Deputy PAC chair Deo Filikunjombe (CCM), was visibly nervous in presenting the report, and spoke later of his discomfort in calling for the resignation of a Prime Minister who was seated just a few feet away. Though his public reputation has been enhanced, he has lost popularity with some senior party figures, and may therefore face a difficult re-selection process in his Ludewa constituency.

Anti-corruption investigators continue to look into the case, and promise prosecutions where appropriate. Despite the pressure being exerted by donors, this may or may not happen. Though two senior government figures have lost their jobs, the suspicion remains that many others – including senior figures within State House – have got off lightly.

In November the Executive Director of Tanzania Legal and Human Rights Centre Dr Hellen Kijo-Bisimba said President Kikwete failed to take a bold decision on the scandal and in turn acted “like an advocate of Pan African Power Solution.” Even Zitto Kabwe showed little appetite to take the matter further. “As Parliament we passed the resolutions by consensus, patriotism and avoiding being unfair to anyone. Parliament did its work ….and I’m leaving this matter to wananchi, they will make their own judgement,” he said.

The leader of opposition and chairperson of Chadema Mr Freeman Mbowe said by failing to sack the architects of the scandal the President showed the country that he is part of the wider corruption problem. “Anna Tibaijuka was but a branch of the scandal, so she was used as a scapegoat, while [those who] orchestrated the whole thing are yet to be touched,” he said.

A political science professor from Ruaha University College, Gaudence Mpangala, said the President did not arrive at decisions that were awaited by many in the country. “By saying that the escrow monies belong to IPTL, the President blew the whole thing away and that is very wrong,” he said.

TANZANIA & EXTRACTIVES - ANOTHER TWIST?

Posted on January 1, 2015 by editor

by Alan R. Roe
(This is a summary of a talk to the Britain-Tanzanian Society, November 2014)

In common with Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Sierra Leone and Uganda, Tanzania will soon enter the ranks of oil and gas producing countries. Tanzania’s discoveries are mainly off-shore in the Indian Ocean and dominated by gas rather than oil. These discoveries are large, and have excited expectations of greatly improved economic growth and incomes and of a windfall for the Tanzanian budget. The government recognises the need to manage expectations about what all this may mean.

The resurgence of gold and diamond production after 1999 was associated with the first real signs of structural change in the economy since independence. Specifically, the turn of the millennium saw the longest sustained period of per capita income growth (1999-2014) since 1950 (fig.1), Tanzania as one of the top non-oil countries in Africa in terms of the volumes of foreign direct investment (FDI), the rapid rise of gold exports which quickly overtook traditional agriculture exports as a source of foreign exchange earnings (fig. 2), and a significant increase in government revenues from mining to $385 million (7% of all tax revenues) by 2012.

fig(1) Per Capita Income Growth: 1950 to 2007 (Angus Maddison and the University of Groningen)

fig(2) The Growth of Exports: 1999 to 2008 (Bank of Tanzania)

There is considerable controversy in Tanzania over many aspects of mining, as the windfall associated with gold and diamonds has not been managed in a way that might have yielded optimum benefits both to the nation and to the affected communities around Mwanza and Shinyanga. But the mining boom has certainly given the authorities significant experience of the issues associated with managing natural resources wealth.

How will the new gas finds change the situation?
The gas discoveries so far are on a scale far larger than anything ever seen in gold and diamond mining. Early estimates from just one of the 20 or more major companies currently licensed to explore for oil and gas, suggests that FDI from their project alone could top $5 billion in the peak year of construction some 5-6 years from now. This is some five times larger than the maximum annual FDI seen in the years of the gold resurgence.

In the short term (to end-2016) there seems certain to be some significant gains in Tanzania’s capability for electric power generation fuelled by the early stage on-shore gas at Mnazi Bay for which much of the commercial contracting has already been finalised.
In the longer term (after 2021) there are expectations of large gas exports in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG), with a variety of domestic uses in addition to electric power generation.

Short-term prospects

fig(3) Map of new 36” diameter pipeline (Wentworth)

In the past three months Wentworth Resources of Canada, working with Maurel and Prom (a large French company – the operator) and the state-owned Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation (TPDC), have signed a gas sales agreement (GSA) with the government. This provides for the delivery of up to 80 million cubic feet per day (mmscf/d) to the new Chinese-built Mnazi Bay pipeline to Dar beginning in 2015. This pipeline is much longer than the existing pipeline from Songa Songa which currently delivers the bulk of Tanzania’s existing gas production (fig 3). By 2016 the Wentworth GSA provides for the delivery of up to 130mmscf/d to the new pipeline.

This development is highly significant. First, it will help to justify and partially cover the $1.2 billion costs of the new pipeline, which will have a large capacity (around 750mmscf/d).
Second, the GSA involves a gas selling price at Mtwara of $3 per million cubic feet (mcf), allowing TPDC to sell that gas to Tanesco in Dar at around $5. This should allow Tanesco to generate power at nearer 12 cents/kilowatt hour rather than current cost of around 35 cents using diesel, jet fuel etc. With Tanesco currently selling power at around 16 cents/kwh, the huge government subsidy to Tanesco (estimated at TSh 353 billion in 2013/14) should be significantly reduced.

The new gas will also more than double the volumes of gas currently available for power generation which could contribute significantly to attaining the Tanzanian “Big Results” target of 5 million more people with access to electricity.

Longer-term prospects
The new gas situation will also create new jobs and higher income for some local populations, new investment opportunities such as the integrated cement plant in Mtwara (to supply gas companies), and a welcome albeit small boost to government revenues. In the longer term the scale of the known and likely discoveries will be focused much more on the export of gas – processed into LNG.

The Production Sharing Agreements (PSAs) already signed with government anticipate that at least 5% of total production will be provided to the domestic market, which means up to 95% will be exported. Even a 5% share of a huge volume of gas will provide many opportunities to expand domestic power generation and open up petro-chemical industries such as fertiliser production.

Based on data from three of the concession blocks in the Indian Ocean (Blocks 1, 3 and 4, operated by the UK BG Group in partnership with Ophir Energy and the TPDC), the broad orders of magnitude of the likely impacts in Tanzania from around 2021 onwards are likely to include:

• Between $3 and $5 billion of new export earnings from sales of LNG
to China and other East Asian countries by about the fourth year of production (circa 2025 depending on when final decisions are taken). Tanzania’s total exports in 2012/13 were $5.5 billion.
• An early addition to revenues (taxes, royalties plus production share)
equivalent to just under 3% of GDP – moving towards $2 billion per annum. This compares with Tanzania’s present total grant receipts from aid donors of around 3.3% of GDP and a budget deficit of 5%. It is several times more than the revenues currently received from gold and diamond mining.
• The creation of several thousand new jobs in the 4-5 years of project
construction, falling to several hundred new jobs in the years of regular production.
These potentially transformational orders of magnitudes are based on the likely outputs from only three concession blocks. At least another eight concession blocks in the Indian Ocean have exploration underway – Statoil of Norway, Ophir, Shell and Petrobras of Brazil (see TA 102 for a map of the concessions, and article below by Roger Nellist for information on latest discoveries).

Challenges and dangers
Exploitation of Tanzania’s natural gas presents a wide range of possible threats as well as substantial new opportunities. Several areas of policy need to be very well-managed over the next few years if the Tanzanian people are to obtain a real benefit. The government is well aware of the main issues and its Natural Gas Policy presented in 2013 contains ideas on most of these.

There are still numerous difficult technical problems to solve in extracting gas from the Indian Ocean under 1,400 metres of water and a further 2,000 metres of variable sea bed strata. There is no guarantee that the concessionaires will be able to solve these problems at an acceptable cost.
There is still a question mark over whether the companies will be able justify the huge upstream and mid-stream investments that are required given the (changing) expectations of the global market e.g. the recent large falls in oil prices. One concessionaire alone is anticipating a full investment cost of well over $20 billion.

Can the government and TPDC finance the large infrastructure and investments needed to ensure the delivery and effective usage of the available gas? Who will coordinate the efforts of the different governmental players and prospective investors?

Will the global demand and supply situation remain favourable to exploiting the Tanzanian resources over the very long period (circa 30 years of more) anticipated by the off-shore projects?
A communications strategy is needed immediately to manage expectations in government, in the affected local communities and in the country more generally. The 2013 Gas Policy refers directly to this matter, but the government is handicapped by the fog of ignorance (and rumours) about the true magnitudes and timing of benefits.

Public sector capacity
Much will need to be done to develop skills in both the private and public sectors. Although few direct jobs will be created there are large opportunities for indirect job creation through linkages to the rest of the economy. The problem is that most of the jobs become in the construction phase. To be filled by Tanzanian workers, a large skills training programme needs to start very early – as indeed it has but on a relatively small scale.

Tanzania now has some effective and well qualified civil servants and specialists. But the depth of the skill base is often thin, for example in the areas of contract negotiation, regulation of the sector, contract management, and management of the fiscal regime.

Attention needs to be given to the strengthening of a National Oil and Gas Company (NOC) based on the present TPDC – building its financing, its specific roles, its capacities. The division of roles between government and the NOC has been a source of much difficulty in other countries.

The government needs to exercise caution on the macroeconomic fundamentals to avoid exchange rate appreciation and damage to traditional export activities – the Dutch Disease problem.

Should Tanzania establish a Sovereign Wealth Fund? What stabilization arrangements, if any, should be set up to guard against the future volatility of oil and gas prices and to ensure that other sectors are not left behind?

The emphasis must lie in building human capacity in all sectors with transferable skills from oil and gas. Tanzania is fortunate to discover gas now. They can learn lessons from other countries on the importance of transparency and good governance. Above all, how to protect this unique opportunity from political opportunism and mismanagement, especially with an election in 2015.