President Benjamin Mkapa will retire gracefully, as has become the custom amongst presidents in Tanzania, at the end of his second term and a new president will be elected on October 30, 2005.

During recent weeks, in an atmosphere of increased political excitement, eleven leading politicians, seeking to obtain the coveted nomination as candidate of the ruling Chama cha Mapinduzi (CCM) Party have been criss-crossing the country in search of support from party members. The weakness of most of the 16 opposition parties (compared with the 294 political parties which took part in the British general election!) and their apparent determination not to cooperate to beat CCM almost guarantees that there will be another CCM president – the fourth since independence in 1961. Continue reading →

It is now perhaps an appropriate time, as his two terms of office draw to a close, to make a note of some of President Mkapa’s achievements.

President Mkapa

Firstly, he has restored the dignity of Tanzania’s national currency. When he took over the presidency, the Tanzania Shilling was depreciating much more rapidly than it is doing now, and was treated with disdain by visitors and citizens alike. Continue reading →

TANZANIA ELECTED TO SECURITY COUNCIL

A TANZANIAN BECOMES CHAIRPERSON OF THE AFRICAN PARLIAMENT

ANOTHER TANZANIAN REPRESENTS 21 COUNTRIES AT THE IMF

A ‘DAR ES SALAAM DECLARATION’ IS PUBLISHED

Tanzania’s international status has taken a considerable step forward during recent weeks.
The country was elected as the member representing Africa on the 191-member Security Council at the UN’s fifty-ninth General Assembly meeting on October 15th. Other countries elected as non-permanent members for two years on the same day included Argentina, Denmark, Greece, and Japan. Continue reading →

Local elections held at the end of November indicated clearly the continuing popularity of the ruling Chama cha Mapinduzi (CCM) Party. Although final results were not known when TA went to the printers it seems that perhaps more than 90% of the votes went to CCM. Many of the sixteen opposition parties, still not united in spite of the obvious advantages of putting up a common front, made strenuous efforts and did well in a few areas. The Civic United Front (CUF) appears to have now established itself as the main opposition party on the mainland as well as in its Zanzibar stronghold. CUF leaders were clearly pleased with the results in many areas. Voter turnout was very high in several places. Continue reading →

The long-gestation process of the American electoral system is being emulated in Tanzania. Although the country’s general election is more than a year away, hardly a day goes by without some new development on the political scene as parties and personalities prepare themselves for the struggle ahead. The following represents a very brief summary of what is being reported in the English language and Swahili press.

THE NATIONAL PICTURE
On the mainland the political situation remains stable and largely peaceful. Most of the news is of internal strife amongst members of Tanzania’s dozen or so opposition parties.
Under intense pressure from these opposition parties the Government finally agreed in July that it was now appropriate to review the composition of the National Electoral Commission (NEC) to accommodate members from different political parties. Its new structure would be clarified when the Government presented before Parliament a 14th Constitutional Amendment Bill later this year – Guardian.

The chairman of the main opposition party, the Civic United Front (CUF) Prof. Ibrahim Lipumba, has said that the breach of laid down procedures and outright rigging of elections by the Government would not deter CUF from taking part because it had become accustomed to such actions. He said that, instead of boycotting the elections, his party would embark on voter education and the training of CUF representatives – Mtanzania.

As this issue of TA was due to go to the printers the Swahili press was speculating about reports that the CCM parties in Tanga and in Magu, Mwanza region were divided but this could not be confirmed. CCM has a remarkable record of unity over the years. Potential presidential candidates are, however, stepping up their efforts in the hope of attaining the ultimate prize.
There was a minor incident on June 16 when a rowdy gang attacked Prof. Lipumba while he was on a tour of Bukoba Urban constituency. He escaped unhurt, but several other people in his entourage were injured and had to be hospitalised. He said that the personal effects and TShs 395,000/- belonging to one of those injured were stolen in the commotion. The police subsequently arrested six people – Guardian.

ZANZIBAR
As always, the political situation in Zanzibar is much more boisterous but Speaker of the House of Representatives, Pandu Ameir Kificho, told a delegation of visiting UK MP’s at the end of July that the Zanzibar House had been carrying out its affairs democratically. He said that representatives from both the ruling CCM and CUF had been working together democratically and harmoniously. He said the democratic spirit prevailed during debates in the House – Guardian.
A CUF spokesperson in Zanzibar has said that his party intended to form a coalition government if it won. It had promised to offer one of the highest posts to the current Isles President, Amani Karume. He said that a coalition government was the only option to heal the wounds of political tension brought about by CCM and CUF rivalry in the Isles. “We want to show our kindness. We’ll form a coalition government, as we pledged, as that is the sure way of resolving the political problem in Zanzibar,” he said amid thunderous applaud from CUF supporters.
But Zanzibar CCM Chief Minister Shamsi Vuai Nahodha then ruled out any possibility of the formation of a government of national unity in the Isles. He told the seven MP’s visiting from the UK that due to political disparity, there was no possibility that an opposition party would be able to implement the ruling party’s policies. “Doing so would amount to killing itself politically,” he added – Guardian.

Donor concerns over the misuse of financial aid for implementation of the peace accord or Muafaka in Zanzibar between the CCM and CUF have been vindicated. A three-man ad hoc committee’s report has confirmed the misuse of funds in the procurement of vehicles by members of the Muafaka secretariat. On April 24th the former project manager of the Presidential Commission on the Accord, Mbarouk Omar Mohamed, was transferred to Zanzibar from Dar es Salaam and appeared in court to answer charges of embezzling some TShs 29 million of public and property. In May it was reported that Police had arrested Mohamed at the Dar Es Salaam International Airport where he was about to board a Kenya Airways flight out of the country. – Majira.
A CUF spokesman claimed in June that soldiers were being moved to the CUF stronghold of Pemba ahead of the elections. “Ships arriving in Pemba are full of soldiers. Why send so many soldiers to Pemba while we are not in a state of war?” he queried. He challenged those claiming that CUF was a terrorist organisation to come up with concrete evidence to support their allegations that the opposition party was behind a spate of bombings that rocked Zanzibar a few months ago. In his speech during the Zanzibar Budget debate in the House of Representatives, CUF Shadow Finance Minister, Abass Muhunzi said the Government had not published a report on the bombing incidents. “People are wondering why the government has decided to remain mum on the Zanzibar bombings while a report on the State House fire has already been made public,” he said – Guardian.
There have been a number of attacks on CCM party property including the CCM HQ in Kisiwandui and the CCM branch in Boma Kitope, the night before a planned rally. The Kitope area has many residents of mainland origin and they have been facing threats from CUF members warning them against registering as voters. At Kisiwandui on July 11 the attackers injured a senior official and damaged the official car of CCM Deputy Secretary-General Saleh Feruzi. Field Force Unit (FFU) officers guarding the building fired in the air to disperse the crowd. The procession was initially peaceful and traffic police officers posted in front and at the back were at hand to bolster security. However, the mood of the marchers changed abruptly when they reached the CCM building. The procession was meant to give support to a speech delivered by CUF Secretary-General Seif Shariff Hamad, shortly after his return from abroad – Sunday Observer, Uhuru and Nipashe.

CUF Secretary General Seif Shariff Hamad has been quoted in Nipashe as saying that some highly placed people were conspiring to arrest him and top CUF officials just before the elections. He also said that come what may he would win the Zanzibar presidency.

The Zanzibar House of Representatives suspended CUF Chambani MP Abbas Juma Mhunzi for defaming Zanzibar President Karume by alleging that oil prices in the Isles had been set according to state house instructions for the benefit of Zanzibar VIPs – Majira.

As this issue of Tanzanian Affairs was being sent to the printers we received a copy of a letter from CUF MP’s which accompanied a petition signed by 5,000 people, and has been sent to Secretary General of the United Nations Koffi Annan – Editor. Amongst many allegations made in the letter were the following:
‘Under the Muafaka it was agreed to set up a new Zanzibar Electoral Commission (ZEC) in which the Opposition will be represented, that a credible Permanent Voters’ Register will be compiled, that the state-controlled media will give equitable coverage to all parties, that the Police and other state organs will be reformed to make them non-partisan and that the judiciary will be reformed to make it impartial and enhance its standing in the eyes of the public…..
With the elections only eighteen months away, the situation is becoming volatile:

– A number of substantive areas of the Accord such as the judicial reforms, police and state organs reform, publicly owned media reforms and reform of the ZEC Secretariat are yet to be implemented;
– The delayed Voters’ Register has still to begin to be compiled;
– The Zanzibar Government has embarked on a major campaign to register people from Mainland Tanzania who have not been ordinarily resident in Zanzibar for a minimum of 10 years as the two parties had agreed;
– The Electoral Commission, which is dominated by the ruling CCM, is busy manoeuvring to redraw the electoral boundaries to favour the ruling party, trying to reduce the number of seats in Pemba, which is an Opposition stronghold, to Unguja where they hope to have better control;
– The Zanzibar Government is also busy beefing up its Special Defence and Security forces, employing only CCM members, and establishing their camps in marginal electoral constituencies to ensure the ruling party wins.’
The letter ended: ‘Your Excellency, after Rwanda and some other calamities in Africa over the past decade, we hope that the international community, and especially the United Nations, will not be caught napping again. Zanzibar may be a small place, but even small people have their rights for which they can fight.’

WHICH PARTY WILL WIN?
The results of a number of local council by-elections on the mainland on June 6 indicated that CCM should win the national elections next year with ease. CCM won almost all the seats. In Bariadi East, Mwanza Region, a stronghold of the opposition UDP, its candidate, John Cheyo, nicknamed Bwana Mapesa, himself the leader of the party, was narrowly defeated. The seat was formerly held by a former UDP MP but it fell vacant after the MP crossed back to CCM following some misunderstanding between him and John Cheyo. After the Returning Officer announced that the CCM had won, Cheyo accepted that his rival had defeated him. He was quoted as having said that he was returning to Dar es Salaam with a clean heart and without grudges even though there had been a few irritating election hitches here and there.
This Bariadi spirit however was lacking in Kilimanjaro Region where the ruling CCM also defeated the opposition by winning three council seats previously held by Augustine Mrema’s Tanzania Labour Party (TLP). Here, when the returning officer announced the results, TLP immediately stated that it would challenge them in court. TLP alleged foul play by the National Electoral Commission alleging that the Commission officers had brought forged forms to the constituency in favour of CCM. Mrema accused the CCM of vote stealing. Mrema also took offence when another opposition party, CHADEMA, defeated TLP in one ward.
In Tanga CCM won 790 seats out of 821. The rest went to CUF (21), TLP (7), UDP (2) and CHADEMA (1) – Uhuru.

WHO WILL BE PRESIDENT?
According to the Swahili press, a poll conducted by the Business Times and the Media Express companies, which involved 37,119 respondents, put Foreign Affairs Minister Jakaya Kikwete in the lead as the next President of Tanzania on 23% followed by the main opposition CUF chairman Professor Lipumba with 19%. The Chairman of the Mwalimu Nyerere Foundation, Dr Salim Ahmed Salim got 11% and the names of some ten other possible candidates were mentioned. (For more information on this subject see TA No 78.)
 

Hildebrand Shayo, who writes on social, economic and political issues in the UK, has sent us his views:

People in Tanzania are excited. Although President Mkapa has warned against political ‘hooliganism’, enthusiasm for the coming contest is rife everywhere. But, coming up to the 2005 general election there is increasing disagreement about who is likely to take over from President Mkapa. Tanzanians, both in urban and in rural areas, are frustrated and many are eager to know who will be the next President. The incompetent opposition camp is not likely to provide an alternative to the ruling Chama cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party. This implies that certainly CCM will win the 2005 elections with a landslide. Although many Tanzanians are anticipating a ‘surprise’ in the choice of candidate, names that have been mentioned are numerous. Although I may be proved incorrect, I don’t agree with recent views, expressed by long-standing politicians, who continue to maintain that the time hasn’t yet arrived to start discussing who will take over from President Mkapa.

The Tanzanian constitution stipulates that the President must hold a University degree. Does this decisive factor take some of the candidates who have been mentioned off the list? No. There are rumours that some mentioned names are working on their degrees and putting in place mechanisms that will help to oil their campaign machinery. One of the candidates being mentioned, Prime Minister Frederick Sumaye, was the biggest vote getter at the CCM National Executive Committee (NEC) candidate elections in Dodoma at the elections in 1995, outperforming even the influential veteran Marxist ideologue Kingunge Ngombale-Mwiru whose power in the CCM is well known.

My view is that we still don’t know what will happen this time. Prime Minister Sumaye has remained an outsider, at least in the party machinery. He is a hard worker, he has knowledge about the running of the government, and is well intentioned; but, during the forthcoming campaign, he may be easily squashed by wise party heavyweights if the competition is intense. Time will tell whether some of these candidates can build the required skills and expertise in time to be fit to be candidates but many doubt it.

Zanzibar President Abeid Karume, (son of the first President of Zanzibar) is a laid back kind of a gentleman, almost an ‘Uhuru Kenyatta’ replica. (The son of Jomo Kenyattta who tried but failed to become President of Kenya last year). He does not take politics too seriously as opposed to former Zanzibar President Dr Salmin Amour and that has helped Zanzibar in the reconciliation process. Karume has offered tremendous concessions to CUF that would have been unthinkable during Amour’s era (eight CUF members work alongside CCM counterparts in key and sensitive government positions in Zanzibar!). Karume could suit the position of Tanzanian Vice President, but that also won’t happen, for he will want to remain the President of Zanzibar. He could have made a good Vice- President but lacks the ‘gravitas of former Prime Minister and Head of the OAU, Dr Salim Ahmed Salim, and he is not a great communicator. My sense is that he enjoys being the President of Zanzibar and will offer formidable opposition to the leading opposition candidate in the Isles.

The two ‘young’ men, Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation Jakaya Kikwete and Minister of Water and Livestock Development Edward Lowassa, had a terrible time in Chimwaga (CM HQ) in Dodoma in 1995. They both got disappointing votes both in NEC and Central Committee contests and that is certainly unhelpful to their ambitions. You wonder what has gone wrong in the past eight years. That is the problem with operating with a sense of privilege (“my turn is coming”). However, despite losing that magic touch and mystique with the general public, they remain influential in the CCM party and what they do next will definitely have an impact on the party’s future. Dr John Malecela, Vice-Chairman of CCM, will definitely not win but we need him as the CCM party’s wise man. However. who he chooses for an ally will be the key. Sumaye was to be the Party’s Vice-Chairman in the last party election in 1995 but Malecela chose to keep the seat. Malecela is one of the very few people in CCM who is beyond the control of anybody. Known as a smart, behind-the-scenes operator he is likely to have in his mind the alliance he will need to back up his candidature. If things get out of hand, this could prove devastating for the CCM party. Such alliances, and a cluster of other factors known within the party, may hasten the realisation of the late Dr Nyerere’s prophesy that the only credible opposition will come from within the CCM.

Lowassa is an extremely intelligent ‘A type’ personality; a hard working Maasai. He is a ‘can do’ type of gentleman. The problem is that he is assumed to be too much of a thriving entrepreneur. However, Lowassa would have been flourishing even if he had chosen to be a cattle herder. It appears that he hasn’t recovered from the bruises of the 1995 campaign and the hugely symbolic action of President Mkapa in leaving him out of his first cabinet. Unless something huge happens, his presidential ambitions appear to be ruined. In the period running up to the 1995 elections, he was partly elevated because of the ‘Mrema threat’ (CCM feared that Augustine Mrema, the leading opposition candidate at that time) could win but, as we all know, that threat no longer exists. In essence, CCM can afford to surprise us with a non-celebrity candidate.

Former Prime Minster Judge Joseph Sinde Warioba is one of those respectable and incorruptible fellows. He will only run if there are guarantees that he will win the nomination this time around. His recent judgeship appointment to the East African Community Court moved him away from the political scene during a very important ‘jockeying period’. He will most likely quietly enjoy his judgeship and private practice in Dar es Salaam. However, if Dr. Salim runs and wins the nomination, he will accept none other than Warioba for a running mate. The two of them would be a ‘super ticket’ as they would bring with them the voters of the Isles and the vast Sukuma population of the Lake region, their respective birthplaces. So, Warioba could end up the Vice-President.

A quick analysis of the other possible candidates:
Former Minister of Commerce and Industry Iddi Simba – very influential; big CCM architect and a crucial link between CCM and the business community. His presidential ambitions, however, are not going anywhere. He is not so popular with the CCM rank and file for he appears very elitist. His demotion from the cabinet was also unhelpful. He will, however, come back after 2005 in a prominent position if Dr. Salim becomes the President for he is a good friend to Dr. Salim. Minister of Agriculture Charles Keenja is mentioned but his chances are extremely slim. He is known for cleaning up Dar es Salaam (which he really didn’t) but only when there was no bureaucratic democratic system (of councillors) to negotiate with. His political skills, thus, remain untested. He is a Sumaye buddy and that will feature in the equation. He also shares the same ‘outsider’ problem as Sumaye despite winning a position on the NEC. He however could be a surprise candidate. Many don’t know enough about him to be able to judge whether he would be a good president but his ‘electability’ inside CCM is doubtful.

Minister for Works John Pombe Magufuli could be the big surprise. He is very articulate, hard working, a former school teacher, very well educated (Master’s holder in Engineering). He has proved exceptional in performance in his very difficult ministry. He is fearless and has been Mkapa’s asset in the cabinet. He is a smooth government operative and can also be a good politician. He was not very well known by Tanzanians. But, hey, we didn’t know Mkapa that well in 1995. If he wins the nomination he will have been ‘pushed’ and emerge as a compromise candidate if the nomination process proves divisive and contentious, as it will likely be.

Minister for Telecommunications Prof. Mark Mwandosya was a rising star in Tanzania. At one point he was mentioned as a replacement for Sumaye for the Premiership. The past year hasn’t been good to him and his star has waned. The railway disaster and the role he played in the privatisation of Tanzania Telecommunications has discredited him. His attempt to get the elders from Mbeya to speak for him was an amateurish political move.

Vice-President Shein’s future hangs in the balance in all this. But, just as in the case of Magufuli, he could be a surprise candidate. The man is qualified to be President pure and simple. He is composed, well educated, incorruptible, not a political opportunist and, most importantly, he comes from Pemba. With his ‘upole’ however, we could have the kind of problem former President Mwinyi was faced with; i.e. controlling the economy. I must concede that I don’t know about him well enough to have a definitive opinion.

My pick for the nod is Dr. Salim. He was Defence, Foreign and Prime Minister. He is a NEC and CC member. He is from Pemba. His lengthy time abroad shielded him from local scandals such as corruption and finally, he is a Mwalimu Nyerere candidate. He has gravitas, he is presidential, articulate and known and respected by almost everyone in Tanzania and outside. If he committed some blunders as OAU Secretary General, they are unknown back home. With Warioba as a running mate, that is a winning combination. Pembans, most of whom support the opposition, don’t associate him too much with CCM (he has been abroad too long) and he would garner some votes for CCM there. His election would give another lifeline to the Union. There are many more names to go through such as Gertrude Mongela who openly complained to CCM Secretary General Philip Mangula recently that CCM had never nominated a woman candidate for the highest post. There has been bewilderment on the presidential post since President Mkapa declared recently that the presidency of the United Republic of Tanzania does not need to alternate between the Mainland and the Isles.
All this is speculation. A week is a long time in politics

Another view
The publication ‘Africa Analysis’ (20th February) also wrote about what it described as ‘the feverish speculation’ as to who might emerge as the Union’s presidential candidate. It said that candidates would have to contend with ‘the powerful force that is 70-year-old John Malecela,’ who was extremely popular within the party. He was said to be planning to pick former Zanzibar President Salmin Amour – ‘an unpopular figure among the mainland elite’ – as his running mate. Such a team would also be anathema to what was described as ‘the System’ – ‘a cabal of senior security officers most of whom had been appointed by the late Julius Nyerere. The article went on: ‘During the CCM nominations for the last elections in 2000, ‘the System’ had been responsible for the debacle that saw Amani Karume, who garnered fewer votes than his rivals, emerge as the CCM candidate for the Iisles presidential elections, which he won, albeit controversially.’

As regards the contest for the Zanzibar presidency, the article said that, if the elections were free and fair – ‘a tall order considering the isles’ last two electoral experiences’ the leader of the opposition Civic United Front (CUF) Seif Shareef Hamad, might well emerge as the next President of Zanzibar. CUF’s eminence in Zanzibar had been further guaranteed when the up and coming opposition party SAFINA (‘Ark’) had been banned recently after it failed to fulfill registration requirements. SAFINA was described as the brain-child of the elder brother of Salmin Amour who was ‘suspected of being the leader of a strong CCM faction in the isles opposed to the current Zanzibar President, Amani Karume’. However the brother had been expelled recently from the party on allegations of misconduct.

The procedure
The ‘Africa Analysis’ article went on to explain how any CCM member aspiring to become a presidential candidate would first have to take the forms and then seek 250 sponsors in 10 regions including Zanzibar. The CCM Central Committee would then make five recommendations to the NEC which would choose three of them whose names would then be sent to the National Party Congress. This Congress would make the final choice. The process should end by April 30, 2005.