Reconciliation
In a gesture of reconciliation, a multitude of CUF members led by Secretary General Seif Shariff Hamad, joined CCM party members (for the first time since CUF was formed in 1992) in celebrations that marked the 40th anniversary of the revolution that toppled the Sultan of Zanzibar in 1964. The celebrations, at Amaan stadium, were also attended by Presidents Benjamin Mkapa and Mwai Kibaki (of Kenya) and Ugandan Prime Minister Professor Apollo Nsibambi. CUF members waved party flags and carried placards urging implementation of the Muafaka accord, while CCM members carried placards proclaiming that the revolution was there for ever – Mwananchi and other newspapers.

Registration of voters
Just before it was due to start, it was announced in Zanzibar that voter registration by the Electoral Commission had been postponed indefinitely because of the unavailability of donor funds. It was also reported, however, that a British company would be appointed to help supervise the registration exercise.
On April 15, however, it was announced that the Zanzibar Government would take charge of voter registration. Zanzibar Chief Minister Shamsi Vuai Nahodha told the House of Representatives that the Government was concerned with an alleged misappropriation of funds (some Shs 217 million) by the Commission appointed to implement the Muafaka and promised that investigations would be conducted and the culprits charged. The Government would look for funds and ensure that the registration process would proceed on time. He said the Government wanted the 2005 elections to be held in a free and fair atmosphere to help islanders forget all the confusion arising from past experiences – Guardian.

ZEC Secretariat
The Zanzibar Electoral Commission’s new secretariat is expected to be fully established by June 2004 as agreed in the Muafaka under a new structure drawn up by Canadian and Tanzanian experts.

Party struck off
Zanzibar’s new SAFINA party was struck off the register of political parties in February but party leaders said they would ignore the decision because the move had been made to favour CCM and they would file a case in the courts. The party was struck off after its leaders had failed to produce a list of 200 founding members from 10 regions on the Mainland and Zanzibar, so as to be granted permanent registration, as provided for in the law. It was alleged that there had also been endless squabbles in the party and a struggle for power so that it was impossible to determine who exactly the party’s trustees – Guardian.

Six bombs and other incidents
There were six bombing incidents in Zanzibar in March and April.
Before the first of these bomb blasts, on March 6, and apparently not connected with the other bombings, the Zanzibar Electricity Company suffered a loss amounting to 26m/- after people, described as hooligans, used petrol bombs to blow up three electricity transformers. Unguja town has 500 transformers, which make it difficult for the company to organize adequate security.
The incident came three days after the police tried to quash an unlicensed public demonstration that had been organized by the ‘Association for the Revival and Propagation of the Islamic Faith.’ Chaos reigned in various streets of Zanzibar town as angry Muslims threw stones at the riot police and burnt tyres. The demonstrators carried placards reading Mbona Maaskofu hamuwakatazi? (why don’t you ban demonstrations organised by Christian bishops), Mnatuonea Waislam (You’re harassing us Moslems) and Haki Sawa kwa Wote, Karume lazima ang’oke” (Equal rights for all, Karume must go). The police responded with tear gas canisters and arrested 32 people – Guardian.
The property that was damaged or destroyed by the six bombs included a house belonging to the Zanzibar Minister of Transport and Communications, another belonging to a ten-cell village leader (or Sheha), a police vehicle, a school bus belonging to St Francis Primary School, and the house of the Mufti of Zanzibar.
A senior official of the British Embassy in Rwanda and a number of tourists escaped unhurt after a hand grenade was thrown at the Mercury Restaurant in Forodhani (named after the famous singer Freddie Mercury, who was born in Zanzibar). The grenade fell on the table occupied by the British official and her company. According to the Guardian it rolled down and caused a stampede but no one was hurt in the incident (this also applied to the other incidents). Tanzanian army specialists diffused the bomb and there followed a loud explosion that shook the whole of Forodhani Street.
On March 26 the Tanzanian Government ordered all defence and security organs, including the Tanzania Peoples’ Defence Forces (TPDF) and the Intelligence Department to use all their powers to hunt down the people involved. The order was issued by Deputy Minister for Home Affairs, Capt John Chiligati who said “The Union government will ensure that peace and security prevail on the isles.” He said that the bomb blasts had been aimed at creating fear and anxiety during the visit to Zanzibar of the German President Dr Johannes Rau.

Mkapa warns Zanzibar’s troublemakers
On April 5 President Mkapa vowed to deal with those alleged to be behind the spate of bombings. Addressing a public rally in Shinyanga he said: “We can’t allow political parties that think they can spread the ‘viruses of religious, tribal, zonal and gender bias’, and indicated that the Government believed that the bombings in Zanzibar were probably sponsored by some political party he wouldn’t name.
Following another statement, this time by the Deputy Minister for Home Affairs, that the attacks were politically motivated and aimed at ruining efforts to build the economy, CUF immediately asked him which political party he was referring to. The party said that international experts should be called upon to uncover the plotters. The party’s Acting Secretary-General, Wilfred Rwakatare, told the press on April 2 that reputable international experts, would undertake free and fair investigations, with no mercy even if the implicated people were state officials. He noted that there was a lot of speculation as to why these explosions were happening at the time when people were preparing for voter registration.

Arrests
Some 39 suspects were arrested shortly after the bombings and twelve of them were charged. Lack of modern equipment had stalled the investigations by the police, Zanzibar Attorney General Idd Pandu Hassan was quoted as saying.

“Zanzibar bombings government sponsored”
The leader of the Uamsho group of Moslems in Zanzibar, Sheikh Farid Hadi Ahmed, said on April 3 that the Government was behind the bombings. Its aim was to get a pretext for arresting and detaining some leading figures in Zanzibar. Speaking at Mtambani Mosque in Dar es Salaam, Sheikh Farid said his group would soon call for a demonstration in Dar es Salaam to pressurize the Government into repealing some oppressive laws including the Prevention of Terrorism Act which, he said, targeted Muslims – Mtanzania.

Uamsho leader in court
Sheikh Azan Khalid Hamdan the second in command in the Uamsho group of Moslems has been arraigned in court charged with incitement against the Government. According to the charge sheet Sheikh Azad incited Moslems gathered at Malindi grounds in Zanzibar on 3rd March 2004 against sections of the Newspaper Act No. 5 of 1988. He was released on bail until April 27, 2004. In another case Khamis Haji Khamis (29) was charged with being in possession of seditious leaflets containing the message: ‘The Revolutionary Government of Zanzibar is conducting bombings in the Isles so that it can get the pretext to arrest Uamsho leaders and detain them. He was also released on bail until April 9, 2004 – Mtanzania.

Tourism continues
The Dar es Salaam Financial Times reported that, in spite of the spate of bombs and arson tourism in Tanzania had not been adversely affected. Bookings to Zanzibar from traditional markets had not been cancelled. Skylink Travels and Tours Managing Director Moustapha Khataw was quoted as saying that he remained confident that the tourism business in Zanzibar would remain robust. Tourists regarded the various ‘scuffles’ as minor issues which posed no serious threat to their lives. So far, none of the countries belonging to Tanzania’s traditional tourist markets had issued any new travel advisories to its citizens.
However, Minister for Finance Basil Mramba condemned the bomb attacks on the Isles and described the incidents as very bad for the economy and for the image of the country. The 2001 terrorist attacks on the US embassy in Dar es Salaam three years before had led to cancellation of about 40% of tourist bookings. Tourism in Tanzania accounts for about 16% of the GDP and nearly 25% of total export earnings.
 
Compensation for property loss
The Commonwealth Secretariat has been accused of back-pedaling on compensating Zanzibaris whose properties were destroyed during the political conflicts in 2001 between the ruling CCM and CUF. According to the East African the cash pledge was made to the Zanzibar government by the Commonwealth, when the latter brokered the peace accord of October 2001, referred to as Muafaka. Many of the houses demolished in Zanzibar’s main island of Unguja, which is predominantly a CCM stronghold, and properties destroyed during the political turmoil of 2001, were those of CUF supporters. CUF has a strong base on the twin island of Pemba. A senior official in the joint CCM/CUF reconciliation committee overseeing the implementation of the Muafaka told The East African that 90% of the accord has been achieved, and only the compensation issue remained.
But Prof Ibrahim Lipumba, the chairman of CUF, said that this was not correct because key areas including reforming the judiciary, introduction of a permanent voters’ register, and reforming public media, setting up a joint parties secretariat to monitor peace in the isles, appointment of CUF members to the House of Representatives, and a number of other issues, were still pending.

Compensation for imprisonment
The Zanzibar Government has refused to give compensation to 18 members of CUF, who were charged with treason in 1997 and confined in prison for three years before being acquitted. They had demanded Shs15 billion. The Government pegged its offer at 20m/- for each of them. Permanent Secretary in the Ministry of State in the President’s Office responsible for Justice and Constitutional Affairs, Omar Makungu, criticised the former inmates, saying they were too rigid and demanding. They claimed that they had suffered psychological and economic loss while in prison. The court granted a request by the Zanzibar Government to settle the case out of court. But the complainants stuck to their guns and refused to reduce the size of the amount demanded. Among the complainants are the CUF Vice-Chairman, the Deputy Secretary-General, a nominated CUF MP, the CUF Director of Planning and Elections, a commissioner on the Zanzibar Electoral Commission, a former Minister of Agriculture, and a CUF woman party activist, Zulekha Ahmed. – Guardian.

With the next presidential and parliamentary elections now only a year away, political activity is increasing, especially in Zanzibar, where the next contest could again be very close between the Chama cha Mapinduzi (CCM) the ruling party and the main opposition party, the Civic United Front (CUF), which has its stronghold in Zanzibar. Relations between the two parties are much better than they have been since the alleged rigging of the last two elections but, after the overwhelming success of CUF in the 17 by-elections held in Pemba on May 18 2003, many observers wonder whether CCM will this time allow the Zanzibar elections to be free and fair if it means CCM losing power in the isles.

There have been positive and negative developments during recent months. Among the positive ones:

THE MUAFAKA (CCM -CUF ACCORD)
The Sunday News (12th October) reported on a debate which had been relayed live on Television Zanzibar in which the leading participants were the co­chairmen of the Muafaka Implementation Accord Committee, Omar Ramadhani Mapuri of CCM and Abubakar Khamis Bakari of CUF. The subject was the implementation of the agreement. The co-chairmen jointly explained that the programmes within the agreement that had not then been implemented needed a lot of money to ensure a successful conclusion. As examples they gave the compensation of people whose houses were demolished and those who lost their jobs, because of the political crisis of 2001, as among items whose implementation was stalled due to shortage of funds. Both however, despite the shortcomings, said that they were satisfied with the speed at which the programmes were moving ahead. They listed several areas which had already been implemented including the appointment of a new Zanzibar Electoral Commission (ZEC) which includes members from the ruling and opposition parties and withdrawal of court cases of a political nature. Restoration of normal political life and good governance were among the great achievements of the Muafaka.

Mwananchi reported recently that the ZEC had presented to the Zanzibar Government proposals for the smooth conduct of future elections. In a report containing lessons learned from the May 18, 2003 well conducted by-elections in Pemba, the ZEC advised the Government to bank all funds received from donors and Government sources in the ZEC accounts as soon as possible. It suggested that ZEC, rather than state agents, should be allowed to procure its equipment needs because, according to the report, late delivery of equipment could cause chaos in the registration of voters. The ZEC also wants changes in the electoral law to accommodate a Permanent Voters Register.

Other recent developments are as follows:

USING THE COURTS?
The London Observer in a recent article on Zanzibar quoted Juma Duni Haji, Deputy Secretary-General of CUF in Zanzibar, as being worried. Although he is reported to think that the Government will hold back from using violence again (in the next elections) they may instead, he says, use the courts to try to stop the opposition winning. “They know they cannot use force any more as people are so much more motivated and conscious of their rights” he said. “If they use force again there will be a lot of bloodshed, so they may use the courts as an alternative” ….For now, the situation remains calm but if the international community is concerned to avoid the potential terrorism dangers they claim to see then fair handling of the next elections ….must surely be the top priority. This is the best route to avoid further social and political instability, and any attendant alienation or radicalisation it might bring …… Some worry that an opposition victory could lead to a break-up of the Union with mainland Tanzania, and that the CUF opposition party could introduce Sharia law. Juma Duni Haji said that government politicians label the opposition party ‘Islamic’ because they want to create a connotation of Islamic and terrorism. Tanzanian law does not in fact allow religious political parties. But opposition politicians talk of renegotiating the Union agreement in terms that are sometimes reminiscent of British Conservatives’ views on renegotiating the UK’s position in the EU…… ‘

ZANZIBAR GOVERNMENT BANS OPPOSITION NEWSPAPER
The Government of Zanzibar banned the publication, distribution and sale of the popular weekly newspaper Dira in Tanzania with effect from November 28. Minister of State in the Zanzibar Chief Minister’s Office, Salim Juma Othman, said that the ban had to be imposed because Dira was creating enmity between the Government and its people by inciting them to break laws through reminding them of their bad history, promoting tribalism, religious segregation and publishing seditious information. The Government had shown a high degree of tolerance, he said, but the publishers of Dira had not changed their attitude. The newspaper had been telling lies that had threatened national unity. He accused the newspaper of not recognising the Government, misusing press freedom and fomenting tribal hatred between Isle and Mainland citizens. Othman pledged that the Government would continue to respect freedom of the press and cooperate with all media institutions which respected the laws of the land, safeguarded national interests, upheld democracy and recognised the right to privacy of an individual. Othman was also quoted as saying that the editorial board of Dira had failed to reform and abide by journalistic ethics despite being advised over seven times, including by the Tanzania Media Council.

According to Mwananchi, among the complaints of the Government against Dira were its claims that President Karume was not a Zanzibari. It had investigated his family in order to tarnish the image of Karume’s father, founder leader of Zanzibar, the late Sheikh Abeid Amani Karume. A few weeks earlier the High Court in Zanzibar had ordered Dira to compensate two children of President Karume, with Shs 660m/-for libel. Dira had earlier complained that the Government had declared Dira Managing Editor, Ali Mohamed Nabwa, as not being Tanzanian, but rather a Comore national. The Dira Editorial Board is chaired by Ismail Jussa Ladhu who is also the assistant to CUF Secretary General, Seif Hamad and also a member of the Presidential Commission for overseeing the implementation of the Muafaka.

The CCM party in the Urban West Region of Zanzibar welcomed the Government’s decision and said it would contribute to building national unity and tranquility in the Isles. It accused the paper of being not only a threat to peace and national unity, but as also having distorted the history of the Zanzibar revolution and subsequent establishment of the United Republic of Tanzania.

CUF Secretary General Seif Shariff Hamad, described the ban as contrary to freedom of expression as enshrined in the Zanzibar constitution. He said his party did not see any meaningful reason to warrant the ban. According to Section 18 of the Zanzibar Constitution, he said, every individual was entitled to freedom of expression without regard to national boundaries. He challenged the Isles’ Government to nurture a culture of tolerance when criticized, in order to strengthen democracy and the rule of law. If Zanzibar President Amani Karume wanted people to take him seriously as a believer in democracy and respect for the constitution, he should repeal the ban, he said. On December 4th the Guardian reported that the Zanzibar Government had threatened to take legal action against the editorial board if it attempted to publish the paper on the intern et. He said the newspaper was registered m Zanzibar, and the Isles formed part of the Union.

An editorial in Mwananchi called for both the Dira management and the Government to cool down and work together for the betterment of the nation.

STRONG LANGUAGE
According to Mwananchi and Mtanzania CUF Chairman Professor Ibrahim Lipumba has warned that if the Permanent Voters Register is not prepared in time before the 2005 general elections President Mkapa should prepare for trouble. Speaking to newly elected CUF leaders in Dar es Salaam Region Lipumba said his party would not again allow what he described as ‘vote stealing like in 1995 and vote robbing like in 2000.’ He called on the CUP leadership in Dar es Salaam to work hard because the party’s winning in Zanzibar depended very much on its strength in Dar Es Salaam.

According to Nipashe CUF Secretary General Seif Shariff Hamad, who also leads the party in Zanzibar, when closing a recent meeting in Dar es Salaam, said that CUP would get many seats in the 2005 general elections and nothing would deny it a win, not even ‘the hiring by CCM of fake voters from the mainland as had happened in the 2000 elections or the rigging of the elections as in 1995.’ Hamad called on CUP members to prepare to defend their 2005 win at all costs.

He said that Zanzibar President Karume was the main obstacle to implementation of the Muafaka and added that reconstitution of the High Court for Zanzibar, freedom for the media organs in the isles and establishment of a new Zanzibar Electoral Commission (ZEC) Secretariat had yet to be implemented in accordance with the Muafaka.

Early in December Seif Shariff raised the stakes again, according to Nipashe, by claiming that clandestine movements were underway to remove the post of President of Zanzibar from the list of elected posts. The Vice-President of Tanzania would then become the leader of Zanzibar instead of an elected Zanzibar President. Hamad and his followers vowed to fight the plan because, if successful, it would wipe out the state of Zanzibar, turning it into a region of Tanzania. Addressing a rally at Kibandamaiti grounds in Zanzibar West, Bamad said the proponents of the move wanted the plan to be effected before the 2005 elections. He said that highly placed intelligence officers working with the Union Government had hatched the deal as one way of saving the ruling CCM party from losing heavily in the elections.

Again in early December Mwananchi reported that Seif Hamad had accused the Zanzibar Government of recruiting more personnel from the mainland to join the Zanzibar Anti-smuggling Unit, the Prisons Service, the National Service and the National Volunteer Service (KVZ) in preparation for a showdown with the opposition in 2005. Seif Hamad told journalists that there would not be a Muafaka III. He had been informed, he said, that the plan was to employ 500 youths every six months between now and October 2005. According to the Muafaka II agreement no police or army personnel from the mainland would be deployed in Zanzibar during Zanzibar elections.

THREE CCM ELDERS WANT TO CLOSE DOWN CUF
Concern amongst some CCM members about the next elections was exemplified when Nipashe reported that three CCM ‘stalwarts’ had sought the deletion of CUF from the list of officially recognised political parties. In their application, they claimed that CUF was a ‘terrorist party’ and that some CUF members had uttered dangerous political utterances which could threaten the constitutional fabric and hence jeopardise the security of the state. But the Judge in the case said that the application ‘failed miserably for lack of merit’ and it was dismissed with costs. Principal State Attorney Donald Chidowu pointed out that CCM­-CUF political relations had improved in the correct direction, leave alone the fact that CUF had not contravened any of the provisions of the law on political parties.

NEW ZANZIBAR PARTY SPLITTING?
One of the two new parties established late last year in Zanzibar, SAFINA, (which, according to Mtanzania advocates the breaking up of the Union between the mainland and Zanzibar) is rumoured to have split. It has not yet obtained permanent registration. According to sources in Zanzibar, quoted in Mwananchi, some top leaders from SAFINA have formed another party called HIDAYA.

They said SAFINA leaders from Zanzibar North district including Abu Amour, the brother of former Zanzibar President Salmin Amour, allegedly received money from the ruling CCM and left the party to form HIDAYA. SAFINA Publicity Secretary Omar Awesu Dadi confirmed the reports of the split saying those who had left the party received bribes from CCM.

‘UNNECESSARY TERROR WARNINGS’
Kirsty Hughes writing in the London Observer (September 21) said that the threat to Zanzibar’s idyllic peace came from within the Isles (the political situation) not from terrorism….. She went on: ‘US and British warnings of high risks of terrorism are threatening …. Zanzibar’s economy….. How real is this threat? The website for the Foreign and Commonwealth office describes all of Tanzania including Zanzibar as being at high risk from global terror, citing the May bomb attacks in Riyadh in Saudi Arabia as evidence that the terror threat remains real. Why terror attacks in Saudi Arabia should indicate a terrorist threat in Tanzania is not obvious. Throwing a general warning over not only the Middle East but East Africa too surely suggests an approach that is either too casual or too general. Tanzania is, after all, despite being one of the poorest countries in the world, also a remarkably stable society, and one where tensions between the Christian majority and large Muslim minority are mostly few and far between. And in Zanzibar, it is local rather than international politics that have been destabilising in recent years. The Zanzibar islands, unlike the mainland, are predominantly Muslim but Zanzibar has long been a cosmopolitan crossroads, mixing African, Arab, Indian and other cultures….. Zanzibar is perhaps being unfairly penalised not only for its Muslim population and by the general international nervousness over security, but also for its location -a relatively short distance south down the coast from Mombassa in Kenya -where terrorists last year bombed a hotel and attempted to shoot down an Israeli plane. Tanzania too has seen terrorist attacks with the bombing of the US embassy in Dar es Salaam in 1998 -but that was the mainland and not Zanzibar. ……Unnecessary or over strong terror warnings have the potential to create not only economic problems but also political resentment. The US and UK warnings have certainly impacted on the economy in Zanzibar. Tourism fell sharply in the first three months of last year, and while numbers are rising again, American and British tourists are few. All hotels, whether local or foreign, have had to pay more attention to security; the FBI has been in to provide advice on security, and even small hotels often have armed guards at night. And travelling across the island police road checks seem to pop up every 10 kilometres. Many see the terror warnings as unfair and damaging, yet there is little anti-American -or anti-British -feeling evident. The fall-off in tourists is a cause of complaint, but while tourists are welcome, the activities of some of the foreign investors chasing the tourist dollar are not always equally so….. ‘

CCM REMAINS DOMINANT ON THE MAINLAND
By-elections for 36 seats in the National Assembly and the Zanzibar House of Representatives on May 18 gave some very clear indications as to the present strength of the two main political parties in Tanzania and what might happen in the next general elections due in 2005.

By winning comfortably in four by-elections on the mainland the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party indicated that it is still in command of the political scene. The opposition is still way behind in popular support. President Mkapa retains his popularity and many will be sorry to see him go when his second term ends in 2005. He cannot stand for a third term.

But in the Zanzibar island of Pemba the results were spectacular. Voters overwhelmingly demonstrated their support for Tanzania’s main opposition party, the Civic United Front (CUF). The Commonwealth Observer team, whose predecessors in the general election in 2000 described that election as being ‘in many places a shambles …. a colossal contempt for ordinary Zanzibar people and their aspirations for democracy’ this time praised the elections as being credible in terms of transparency, electoral management and the overwhelming turnout of voters. 107,074 people registered to vote out of an estimated 140,000 eligible and in the elections themselves a remarkable 93% of those registered turned out to vote. The Commonwealth observers were full of praise for the newly reformed Zanzibar Electoral Commission and its conduct of the elections.

CUF won all 15 Zanzibar seats in the Union parliament and 11 out of the 17 seats in the House of Representatives. It should have won all of the latter as well. However, the CUF candidates were barred in six seats after the NCCR­Mageuzi, a relatively insignificant opposition party, cited a section of the Zanzibar constitution that bans any MP who has been dismissed by the Speaker of the House of Representatives (for failing to attend three consecutive sessions) from seeking re-election for three years. The six were among the 17 elected CUF MP’s who boycotted the House to protest against the alleged rigging of the 2000 general election. Most of the electorate in the six seats responded to the barring of the CUF candidates by spoiling their ballots rather than vote for CCM. In Chake Chake, for example, out of 5,910 votes cast, 4,385 were spoilt. NCCR got 183 votes. The six seats were however won by CCM but its best winner scored just 23% of the votes cast.

CUF Chairman Pro£ Ibrahim Lipumba commented: “If we want any evidence that CCM stole the 2000 elections the result in the Mkanganyeni constituency is it” (a view contested by CCM). This was a seat won by CCM’s Dr Ali Mohamed Shein in 2000, who later had to vacate the seat when he became Vice-President of Tanzania. This time the CUF candidate took the seat comfortably with 66% of the vote.

The elections marked an important development in the implementation of the “Muafaka”, an agreement signed between CUF and the CCM, after post­election protests turned violent in 2001 and led to the death of some 40 CUF supporters at the hands of the police.

Following these by-elections it seems that in 2005 CCM can look forward again to success on the mainland. But for it to win in the Isles, if the election is free and fair, will be something of a struggle. CUF needs to win only a few seats on the sister Zanzibar island of Unguja to win control of the Zanzibar House of Assembly and probably the presidency of Zanzibar as well.