by David Brewin

Newspaper cover featuring twelve people said to be eyeing the Presidency.

Americans usually start campaigning for the next election contest almost immediately after the completion of the previous one. Tanzania seems to be moving in the same direction. Although the elections are not due until late 2015, those aspirants who are considering standing for the top job are beginning to quietly mobilise their support. Speculation is now rife in political circles on the issue of who will succeed President Kikwete. Unlike some of his opposite numbers in other states, notably Zimbabwe, he is expected to comply with the law and retire at the end of his second term as all his predecessors have done.

A number of prominent figures are expected to compete in the elections. One factor which could become crucial is a long established ‘under­standing’ that, if the president is a Muslim, as is President Kikwete, his successor should be a Christian. President Nyerere was a Catholic, former President Mwinyi is a Muslim and President Mkapa is also a Catholic. As both the Christian presidents have been Catholics the large Protestant community might be wondering when its time will come.

Among possible candidates are the following:

Former Prime Minister Edward Lowassa is considered by many as the front runner. He is popular in many areas of the country because of his diligence and active implementation of development projects, especially the ward secondary education project. He is a Protestant and a member of the Tanzania Evangelical Lutheran Church but he was alleged to have been corrupt in the Richmond electricity scandal (see many earlier issues of TA) and has had some recent health problems.

The Chairman of the Parliamentary Select Committee which inves­tigated the Richmond scandal, Dr Harrison Mwakyembe, pointed out alleged corrupt practices and gained some popularity as a result. However, most Tanzanians seem less influenced by allegations of cor­ruption and more interested in overall competence in their leaders. Dr Mwakyembe has now taken on the post of Minister of Transport – one of the most demanding positions in government as it includes the rail­ways, roads, airlines and ports with their numerous problems. When he addressed members of the BTS in London he impressed them by his command of every part of his portfolio and his innovative proposals for reform. It was clear that he is intolerant of corruption and inefficiency, although his candid and explicit approach might not be the best way to make friends and influence people if he has higher ambitions.

Another possible candidate who is high in the popularity stakes is the former Prime Minister under President Mkapa, Frederick Sumaye. He has the advantage of being a Protestant and is generally considered to be honest. Having been largely absent from front-line politics under President Kikwete, he has recently sought more of a public profile.

Samuel Sitta, the Minister for East African Cooperation and former Speaker of the House of Assembly, is outspoken, commands popular support, and is widely regarded as fair and incorruptible. He is a Catholic but his advancing age may harm his prospects. In addition, he does not have the same level of support as his key rivals among the party’s power-brokers and key donors.

Former Prime Minister Salim Salim who has held many senior posi­tions outside and inside Tanzania is a Zanzibar Muslim, but he seems to be keeping a relatively low profile. His ambiguous relations with the Isles might be a handicap so far as the presidency is concerned.

Current Foreign Minister Bernard Membe seems to be growing in stature and his honesty while leading an observer mission to the recent controversial Zimbabwe election plus his serious criticism of their con­duct, was brave in view of the great esteem in which Mugabe is held in many parts of Africa. Membe is a Catholic. It is to be noted that both Presidents Mkapa and Kikwete were Foreign Ministers before becoming presidents.

Dr John Magufuli, Minister of Works, is organising an ambitious road building programme and might be a candidate.

For the first time, the charismatic leader of an opposition party, Chadema’s Dr Wilbrod Slaa, is considered by some as having an outside chance of winning the presidency. He won many votes in urban areas at the last election and his party is using the time before 2015 to strengthen its support in rural areas where the government CCM has always been very popular. Dr Slaa is a Catholic.

The dynamic campaigner against corruption and Chairman of Parliament’s Finance Committee, Chadema’s Zitto Kabwe is a man with a future but because of an unusual clause in the current constitu­tion is too young to run for the presidency in 2015.

Alternatively, this may be the time for a female candidate. Two names are regularly mentioned as among the contenders for the CCM nomi­nation. Anna Tibaijuka is Minister of Lands, Housing and Human Developments, and the former Executive Director of UN-HABITAT, while Asha-Rose Migiro is a former Minister of Foreign Affairs and served as Deputy Secretary General of the UN between 2007 and 2012. She is not currently a Minister but retains influence within the party.

By David Brewin (with considerable help from Dr Juma Ngasongwa, the former Minister of Natural Resources and Tourism, later Industry and Trade and then Planning, the Economy and Empowerment. He is not standing for the presidency or for parliament. He says that he is enjoying his retirement).

by David Brewin

Huge crowds lined the streets, often twelve deep, with warm welcom­ing smiles on their faces. There were also a few articles in the media from some of the professional classes questioning President Obama’s motives in coming to Tanzania. This probably sums up the historic visit by President Obama to Dar es Salaam from June 29 to July 1 accompa­nied by a large contingent of business leaders.

Presidents Obama and Kikwete on the red carpet

And then there was somebody else reported to be on the way from her home near Kisumo in Kenya. It was Mama Sara, President Obama’s grandmother and the second wife of his maternal grandfather.

President Obama in his speeches stressed America’s commitment to improving electricity supplies as well as other aid and investment. At the end of the visit, as the Global edition of the New York Times put it (Thank you Elsbeth Court for sending this) the two presidents stood solemnly together as a US marine placed a wreath to mark the memory of the Tanzanians who were killed in the US embassy grounds by Al Qaeda terrorists fifteen years ago.

Presidents Obama and Bush pay their respects for the 1998 US Embassy bomb victims

by David Brewin

Historical background
Tanganyika at independence in 1961 had its own government and three years later Zanzibar at its independence also had its own. It was a time of great local and international tension. Tanganyika had had an army mutiny and Zanzibar had had a violent revolution. The East-West cold war was in full swing and both sides were worried about what might happen in Zanzibar, as its frequently unpredictable new President Abeid Karume had invited the Soviet satellite East Germany (not rec­ognised as a state by most of the West) to send experts and establish a presence in the Isles. America and the Western countries were alarmed at the potentially destabilising effect in East Africa of a communist state like Cuba (which still makes trouble for the US all these years later) on the doorstep of East Africa. Both sides were impressed however by the new leader of Tanganyika Julius Nyerere and relied upon him to come up with a solution.

Few know precisely what happened during the Tanganyika – Zanzibar negotiations which were conducted personally by the two presidents, but the result was a new Constitution (two, in fact, because Zanzibar had its own) which were ingenious and innovative and have stood the test of time, in spite of years of friction between the two sides. It cre­ated a new nation with two governments called the United Republic of Tanzania. The Union government had wide powers in both countries, and the Zanzibar government, which was not granted sovereign status, had certain powers in Zanzibar. There were two presidents, two gov­ernments and two parliaments (not three, which many thought would be more logical). Nyerere, a man of great sagacity, realised that the new Union was a delicate flower likely to die unless there was a strong central government and the Zanzibaris were given influence and power far beyond what their respective populations (now 45 million and 1.5 million) would justify.

Many people on both sides have complained over the years about this unusual set up. But Nyerere insisted over and over again that the Union must remain constitutionally as it was. He said that if three govern­ments were set up this would lead to the end of the Union. All subse­quent presidents and parliaments have followed the same line.

The new draft constitution
Following many expressions of opposition to a continuation of the status quo, as explained in recent editions of TA, the Constitutional Review Commission (CRC), under its Chairman Judge Joseph Warioba, travelled all over the country to ask people what they wanted in the new constitution. Finally, on 3 June 2013, they surprised many by publish­ing a very detailed draft, called the “Mother Plan,” which would totally change many aspects of the existing constitution.

The most contentious issue was the future structure of government. The Commission rejected the present two-part government because of “the sensitivities and opposition from both sides of the Union.” It proposed instead a federal union with three governments – a Tanzanian government, a new government described as Bara Tanzania (Mainland Tanzania) and a Zanzibar government.

Some other surprises
The draft constitution provides other detailed proposals which have already stimulated debate, a debate which will continue until the final document is agreed. Examples:
– the Government of the United Republic of Tanzania, which was cre­ated in April 1964, would be substantially reduced in size with about 15 cabinet ministers and a parliament of about 75 members (20 from Zanzibar). There would be five members from the mainland appointed by the President and allocated to the disabled; the provision of special seats for women would not be continued;
-the number of Union matters would be drastically reduced from the current 22 to seven: foreign affairs, immigration, citizenship, defence and security, the central bank, currency, registration of political parties and constitutional issues;
-there would be proportional representation with the details worked out later;
-cabinet ministers and the Speaker of the National Assembly would be selected from outside parliament;
-details of any gifts made to public officials would have to be submitted to the Chief Secretary for approval and public officials would be barred from holding more than one office in government;
-the rights of minority groups such as hunter gatherers (the Hadzabe and Akiye ethnic groups comprising less than 2,000 people) would be recognised and they would be given representation in governance structures where appropriate.

Omissions
Some concern has been expressed about the omission of many key matters from the draft document. These include land ownership, protection of property rights, health, education, exploitation of natural resources, dual citizenship, participation by people in the affairs of the state, free­dom of the press, religious differences, and the right to information. It is understood however that provision might be made for some of these in the new Mainland and Zanzibar constitutions.

There is also the problem that, although Zanzibar has its own constitu­tion which will merely require amendment, a new constitution will have to be drafted for Tanzania Bara, then debated, passed and inaugu­rated, which could be a lengthy process.

Needless to say, discussions are going on around the country and the draft might be substantially changed, but space constraints prevent TA from reporting on most of the comments made so far.
However, the magnitude of the task facing the government in finalis­ing the constitution(s) is illustrated by two statements made at recent public meetings. The former East African Community (EAC) Secretary General, Ambassador Juma Mwapachu, described the move to have an “autonomous Zanzibar” as a drawback to the East African regional inte­gration process. He said that Vice President of Zanzibar Seif Sharriff Hamad’s statement to the effect that Zanzibaris should regain their citizenship and have full autonomy on international issues amounted to a breaking of the Union. “With such comments I wonder what East African people are going to think or say about the nature of the pro­posed East African citizenship,” he added.

by David Brewin

Malawi
“Anyone who tries to provoke our country will face consequences … Our country is safe and the army is strong and ready to defend it,” President Kikwete said in a speech on 25 July to mark National Heroes’ Day. “We will not allow anyone to mess with our country, or try to take away our territory. We will deal with them just as we dealt with [former Ugandan ruler Idi] Amin”

These words were widely interpreted as referring to Malawi, thus rais­ing the stakes in the escalating border dispute over the ownership of the northern half of Lake Nyasa/Malawi, Africa’s third-largest lake. Malawi claims the entire northern area of the lake while Tanzania says it owns the eastern half of the northern area. The southern part of the lake is shared between Malawi and Mozambique. Malawian President Joyce Banda has told mediators that her government would not accept any interim deal on the disputed boundary with Tanzania until the wrangle over sovereignty was settled. (Voice of America)

Sudan
Seven Tanzanian soldiers, acting as peacekeepers as part of the African Union-UN mission (UNAMID) in the Sudan, were killed in mid-July in the Darfur region. Unidentified gunmen attacked them while on patrol between the Khor Abeche and Manawashi regions. Seventeen military and police personnel were wounded in the attack.

During a briefing in New York, a spokesman for UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon said that “the peacekeepers were attacked when they were undertaking a routine confidence-building patrol. They were outnum­bered four to one by their attackers who numbered between 100 and
150. They had trucks mounted with anti-aircraft guns. One truck was stolen during the attack and the mission later recovered three damaged vehicles.”

Various witnesses from South Darfur have reported to Radio Dabanga that two UN cars were later seen being driven by members of the gov­ernment Central Police Reserve (nicknamed Abu Tira) and dressed in uniforms with distinctive ‘eagle insignia’ on their shoulders.
The government of Sudan blamed the rebel Sudan Liberation Army -Minni Minawi (SLA-MM) for the attack. Other reports said that it was unlikely that Sudan would take any serious action and UN policy appeared to be against opposing the government. Tanzania said it wanted to discuss UN policy as regards peace-keeping operations.

DR Congo and Rwanda
According to the East African, angry words were exchanged after President Kikwete suggested in Addis Ababa in May that Rwanda and Uganda should initiate direct talks with the rebel groups which are at the heart of the trouble which has persisted in the east of the Democratic Republic of Congo. Rwanda called Kikwete’s suggestion ‘utter nonsense‘. Tanzania chairs the Southern Africa Development Community’s Peace and Security Council, but Dar’s conflicting obliga­tions to the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region and the East African Community leave it on a collision course with Uganda and Rwanda which are opposed to troop deployment under the UN.

Things later cooled down and an international agreement was signed by eleven interested countries. South Africa would be contributing troops to a greatly enlarged peacekeeping force, including Tanzanian soldiers, with increased powers.

More recently, a war of words has broken out between Tanzania and Rwanda, largely through nationalistic coverage in the respective coun­tries’ press. This focussed partly on President Kikwete’s statements and partly on the expulsion of 7,000 “Rwandan” immigrants by Tanzania, many of whom had been settled in the north-west of Tanzania since independence. The Rwanda press called them “people of Rwandan ancestry” and the leading English-language paper turned to a personal attack on President Kikwete and his wife.

Egypt
As this edition of TA goes to press in late August, Egypt is in a state of turmoil. Tanzania’s reaction was perhaps summed up in an editorial in the Tanzania Guardian:
“…Ironically, (while the world outside condemned the action by the army) the African Union has failed to speak aloud against what is hap­pening in Egypt, perhaps for fear of biting the hands that feed it, or simply because of our neo-colonial syndrome.

“The truth is very clear: What took place in Egypt is a military coup and we as Africans do not have to be told by the Western countries what to say, at least not the United States…. If Africa cannot stop what is happening in Egypt, then it should strongly condemn as well as suspend that country from the African Union. But precious little has been taken by the African Union to address the worsening situation in Egypt. After five decades of this continent’s independence …. we still cannot speak aloud about our political and economic future. We wait for the so-called ‘masters’ to tell us what democracy is all about, what civilization means and above all, what a military coup means to our own development…. Today, the same people who supported the entire process from the beginning to the end now bless the barrel of the gun to be used against a democratically elected president. Still worse, the same masters now want us to believe that sometimes you can use a military coup to remove a democratically elected government, provided there are opposition members who have demonstrated for a week in protest against the regime.
“The best way to remove any government that doesn’t perform is through the ballot box. But it seems that there’s an old fashioned way we thought had been buried in Africa some years ago now taking place in Egypt – the military coup. What the Western countries do not want to admit is that democracy cannot be imported or exported. As Julius Nyerere once put it: ‘Democracy isn’t a bottle of Coca Cola that you can import’.”