KIKWETE TREATED FOR PROSTATE CANCER

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On 8 November, Tanzanian President Kikwete underwent a successful operation to remove a cancerous prostate. The operation was conducted at the Johns Hopkins Hospital in Baltimore, USA. The President remained in the US for three weeks for recuperation before returning to Tanzania.

President Kikwete thanked all Tanzanians for praying for him and commended the media for conveying the right message away from distortion. “In September, last year, I went for a medical check-up and doctors diagnosed me with prostate cancer. They told me that since it was still at a manageable level, an operation could remove it completely and stop it from spreading to other parts of the body. Before going for the operation, I wanted to ‘put the house in order’”, he added, explaining that he had been waiting for the Constituent Assembly to complete preparation of the proposed new Constitution.
“Although I looked normal and continued with my duties, the illness remained a source of ‘inward misery.’ It took eight months to inform my wife but she is great and encouraged me to undergo treatment. I am glad am cancer free. Doctors said that after such an operation a patient could survive for 30 years depending on one’s age,” he said.

President Kikwete explained that since the 1990s when he served as the minister for energy and minerals, he cultivated the culture of undergoing regular medical check-up. He appealed to ‘wananchi’ to emulate that way of life.

AGRICULTURAL MARKETING-MAKE OR BREAK?

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by Andrew Coulson

There are two iron laws of agriculture:
1.If there is no market for a crop, don’t grow more than you can store and eat.
The second makes the same point from a national perspective:
2.If you are trying to promote expansion of an agricultural product, then you will fail if the marketing arrangements do not work.

Farms – large or small – are businesses. Farmers make choices, about what crops to plant, how much of each, when to plant them, where, when to weed and how often, whether to use inputs such as fertilizers and insecticides, and so on.

Small farmers need money – for school uniforms and school fees, agri­cultural tools, food items that they cannot produce themselves, medical costs, clothes and shoes, cooking utensils – and if at all possible, cement and wood for houses, bicycles, mobile phones, lamps, bus fares, and all that we can imagine that makes a better life. They are therefore integrated into national, and indeed international, economies. It is misleading to call them peasants, or to imply that they can be entirely self-sufficient. They cannot exist if they are paid very little, paid late, or not paid at all.
Large farms are also businesses, and face many of the same risks as small farmers: failures of the rains, attacks by insects, birds or animals, plant diseases, and unexpectedly low prices.

Until the 1970s many farmers were organised in cooperatives, which purchased their crops and took responsibility for repaying credit. Much of what was produced was sold by marketing boards. But by the time of liberalisation in the 1990s most of these arrangements had broken down and agricultural marketing was left almost entirely to the private sector. The result has been a series of disasters so bad that farmers only continue growing crops when they have no other plausible alternative.

For cotton, businessmen purchased ginneries and employed buyers to purchase the crop from the farmers. Farmers had a choice of where to sell. If one buyer rejected their cotton because of poor quality they could sell to another. If they took credit from one buyer, they could sell their cotton to another and avoid paying back the credit. Buyers travelled over large areas to buy cotton – and one consequence was that the varieties which had been specially bred for the North and the South of the cotton area got mixed up. The position now is that many farm­ers are adulterating their cotton with sand, water, or even hygroscopic chemicals – and Tanzanian cotton sells at a discount on world markets when once it sold at a premium. To get back to a position where qual­ity could be achieved, the government promoted “contract farming”, where farmers contract with a single buyer who also supplies credit for inputs; in the central cotton areas this was opposed and ultimately sabotaged by small ginners who did not have access to the capital to provide credit to farmers.

The position with coffee is much the same. A sharp decline in quality, a failure to manage credit, and low prices.

Cashew nut farmers produced a bumper crop in 2011/12. The local pro­cessing factories were swamped. The buyers had insufficient money to buy it all in the short window when Tanzanian cashew nuts can be sold to India, before the Indian crop is harvested. So they paid for the cashew nuts with IOUs. Many of those farmers are still waiting to be paid.

Rice production has been one of the success stories. But just when farmers were doing well, the Bank of Tanzania approved imports of cheap rice which depressed the prices, and many farmers who have taken credit to buy fertilizers or sprays could not pay back their loans.

Maize is another success story, with record harvests in the Southern Highlands, Songea and Sumbawanga. According to the Citizen on 1 December, the surplus is more than 2 million tonnes, although the National Food Reserve Agency will only purchase 200,000 tonnes. There are good harvests in Malawi, Zambia and parts of Congo, so no easy export markets. Many farmers may not get paid. Some will try and store their maize, but without modern stores much of it will succumb to post-harvest insects, especially the large grain borer or Skanya bora, unofficially named after the lorries which transported food aid in the early 1980s.

One of the main planks of “Big Results Now”, the most recent govern­ment planning strategy, is the “Warehouse Receipt Schemes” where a farmer takes the crop to a store and, provided the crop is of good quality, he or she can be paid in cash or in credit. If the latter, and crop prices rise later in the season, what they have sold will be given the higher value – and payment to the farmers may be made either in cash or in the form of seeds or fertilizers for next years’ crops. This is fine in principle, not so easy in practice, where corruption can creep in. The system fails altogether if the warehouses are full or the manager does not have sufficient cash.

There are also problems with the marketing of sugar, where unexpected and perhaps corrupt imports have discouraged new local projects to increase production.

Tanzania should be celebrating its small farmers (who have shown that they can produce surpluses of cashew nuts, maize and rice), not making them angry by not buying what they have produced.

Crop marketing is a specialist skill. It is much more than an admin­istrative task. One consequence of liberalisation has been the loss of the expertise and contacts learnt in the days of the marketing boards. Since most crops are sold without the crops themselves being visible, it requires good contacts and above all trust, which can only be built up between individuals, and over time. Moreover, to achieve good quality, the marketing must be regulated: buyers who accept low quality must be driven out of the market, along with buyers who buy from farmers who have contracted to sell to someone else. The banks must know the reliable buyers, and lend them sufficient money to purchase the crops. Farmers unable to sell their crops on time and for fair prices cannot be blamed if they choose not to grow those crops in the future.

TERROR FOR PEOPLE WITH ALBINISM

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During eleven days in August 2014, 3 brutal attacks, and 2 attempted attacks, were directed against persons with albinism, also known as “albinos.” The attacks result from societal stigma and the belief that the body parts of persons with albinism can bring good fortune when used by witch doctors to create good luck potions. This rampage of brutality has left the country’s population of people with albinism in a state of immobilizing fear. Since 2006 there have been at least 151 murders and attacks on persons with albinism in Tanzania. It is believed that most attacks go unreported.

On 5 August a 15 year old girl was brutally attacked at her home in Tabora Region as she ate dinner with her family. The assailants hacked off her right arm just below the elbow. The men disappeared into the darkness with her arm. The girl lost a lot of blood and was semi­conscious when brought to hospital. Police have arrested three men in connection with the attack, including a neighbour who is a known witchdoctor. Eye witnesses who have spoken to police have since received death threats. “I am asking the police to move me to a safer place and protect me because bad men might come back to kill me” the girl said later. According to advocacy group Under the Same Sun (UTSS), a witch doctor had received an order from a wealthy client indicating a price of $600 USD.

On the same day as this attack, the girl’s uncle, who also has albinism, narrowly escaped an attempt on his life as he walked to his father’s village. He was chased by two men holding machetes. He said he heard the men shouting, “Let’s cut him! Let’s cut him now!” When interviewed, he indicated that they were the same gang that had attacked his niece. He ran as fast as he could and fortunately escaped.
A week later, on 14 August, a young man with albinism was found dead in Kinyerezi on the outskirts of Dar es Salaam. His mutilated body had been dumped in a swamp. Sections of skin on his upper torso had been removed. The skin of persons with albinism is in high demand for witchcraft rituals.

On 16 August a 35 year old mother of seven children was brutally attacked at her home in the Igunga District in Tabora Region. Two attackers cut off her left arm before fleeing. Her husband was beaten to death while defending his wife and two of their children sustained injuries. One suspect has been arrested.

Peter Ash, the founder and CEO of UTSS, and himself a person with albinism commented, “my brothers and sisters with albinism in Tanzania are facing an unprecedented crisis. They have no place that is safe. Law enforcement and the judiciary have been impotent in address­ing this human rights crisis. Only 5% of the 151 cases of murder and attacks have reached prosecution in the Tanzanian courts to date.”

CONSTITUTION

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by Enos Bukuku

Opposition challenge to proposed new constitution
The Constitutional Assembly (CA) was disbanded in October 2014 after delivering the final draft of the proposed Constitution to the President, who has invited the public to endorse the document in a referendum to be held in April 2015.

Despite the heated disputes which have taken place among the political factions within the CA, the government announced that the required two-thirds majority for approval of the draft by the CA had been met. However, many members of the opposition have disputed this. A CA member from Zanzibar, Haji Ambar Khamis, claimed that even though his name was listed as approving the draft, he had not done so, and he reportedly collapsed whilst explaining himself. Four opposition parties (Chama Cha Demokrasia na Maendeleo (CHADEMA), the Civic United Front, the National League for Democracy and the National Convention for Construction and Reform) have decided to join forces against the government and mount a joint challenge to the draft constitution on the grounds that the government failed to follow the legal procedures during the vote in parliament.

There is still some debate as to whether the new constitution can be considered a success even if it survives this possible legal challenge and is adopted after the referendum.

Those in one camp will say that this draft improves upon the current constitution by addressing the needs of all Tanzanians by including the nation’s children, women, the disabled and other minority groups. Changes to the constitution have been warmly welcomed by Tanzania’s Gender Coalition Group who have stated that approximately 90% of their proposals for reform to women’s rights have been adopted by the CA. One of the proposals which has received praise is for women to have equal land ownership rights which “gives every woman the right to obtain, own, use, develop and manage land under the same rules which are applicable to men”; the ability to confer citizenship to their children; better employment rights; and more advantageous representation in parliament.

The draft also seeks to redress the issue of exploitation of children by clarifying the definition of child as being a person under 18 years of age, which is relevant in combating child marriages. It also guarantees a right to primary education to every Tanzanian child. Minority ethnic groups, such as the Hadzabe and Akiye, are given further protection by the draft.

However, the proposed constitution has removed notable sections from the previous draft, including new checks and balances on presidential power, and has watered down sections proposed by Warioba’s Constitutional Review Commission (CRC). In particular, the proposal to establish a three-government structure – Zanzibar, Mainland, Union – is replaced with a two government structure that closely resembles the current system.

Whilst there was an attempt to include a provision for dual nationality in the final draft, unfortunately for many of the Tanzanian diaspora overseas, this was eventually omitted. Instead, by way of a compromise, a “special status” will be given to former Tanzanian citizens.
Those of the “this-new-constitution-won’t-change-a-thing” camp argue that the whole lengthy process has been a monumental waste of time, money and ultimately, dominated by the government. CCM has been accused of bullying and “hi-jacking” the process.

The drafting of a new constitution was supposed to be a civilised exercise in cross-party consultation, and all parties were supposed to set aside their differences for the greater good and for the benefit of generations of Tanzanians to come. This ideal was once again challenged on 2 November 2014, when a youth group of CCM supporters disrupted a meeting convened by the Mwalimu Nyerere Foundation to hear the Constitutional Review Commission (CRC) members, and in particular CRC chairman, retired Judge Warioba. An eagerly anticipated speech by a well-respected politician, quickly turned into an ugly scene more suited to a Hollywood action film. It was reported that “fists and chairs were flung into the air, camera equipment destroyed and journalists beaten up”.

It now remains for the public to voice its opinion as to whether the Constitution should be adopted. For the new constitution to pass, majorities are needed in both parts of the union. CCM should have no trouble winning a majority on the mainland, but whether they can deliver the same on Zanzibar is more questionable.

POLITICS

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by David Brewin

Elections approaching
It is now only about four months to the parliamentary elections in Britain which are going to be hotly contested. It is about ten months before the presidential and parliamentary elections in Tanzania which will also be hotly contested. And, surprisingly, in neither country are political experts sure what the results will be. All this contributes to a growing political fever, even though political parties in both countries have increasing difficulty in persuading people to vote.

The ruling Chama cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party
The largest and longest serving party in Tanzania, the CCM, with its great strength, particularly in rural areas, is still fairly confident about remaining in power for another five years. Its popularity rests on its stability and its preservation of peace and order unlike most neighbour­ing countries.
However, the unsatisfactory finalisation of the Constitution-making process (as explained by Enos Bukuku), the apparent government decision to ignore strong feelings in Zanzibar and say no to a third government, plus the increasing political tensions in parliament over demands for more transparency in the awarding of mining contracts (see Roger Nellist below) and the rising discontent about corruption (see Ben Taylor’s article on the ITPL scandal) must be causes of concern to many voters.

The opposition
The second largest party, CHADEMA, had great hopes of increasing its position substantially in the elections, but the attempts to expel their leading radical MP and anti-corruption campaigner, Zitto Kabwe, could have damaged its chances. CHADEMA’s leadership wants to get rid of Kabwe because of his reluctance to accept the party’s policies but Kabwe retains the powerful position of Chairman of the Public Accounts Committee of the National Assembly and thus remains of great interest to the media. He also attracts the support of many among the younger generation of potential voters.

Opinion poll

Mwananchi coverage of the opinion poll results (http://millardayo.com)

Mwananchi coverage of the opinion poll results
(http://millardayo.com)


An opinion poll by Twaweza in November showed no clear front runner. Former CCM Prime Minister Edward Lowassa had the support of just one in eight voters, 13%; current CCM Prime Minister Mizengo Pinda, who announced his decision to stand in a BBC interview in London, had 12%; with 11% favouring the leading opposition candidate, Wilbroad Slaa from CHADEMA – a candidate for the presidency in 2010.

But party loyalties remain strong. According to the poll, the ruling CCM party is supported by 47% of voters. Amongst the growing numbers of young voters under 35 years old, 44% claim CCM affiliation with 34% supporting CHADEMA.

There are plenty of other CCM aspirants for the presidency, all except one of whom will be eliminated at CCM selection conferences early in 2015. They include Foreign Affairs minister Bernard Membe (with 5% support), East African Cooperation minister Samuel Sitta (4%) and Works minister John Maghafuli (3%) plus Defence minister Shamsi Nahodha.

A rising star and one of the latest additions to the list of CCM presidential hopefuls is January Makamba, the Deputy Minister of Communications, Science and Technology and a CCM MP in Lushoto District. A close aide to President Kikwete for five years, at 40 years old he is much younger than most of the other aspirants.

He says that it is diffi­cult to see how those who have been in politics for 40 years, ‘who are steeped in the ways of a (for­mer) one-party state, a rigidly planned economy and con­trols on freedom’, can contend with the unique challenges of a rapidly changing country. Asked by the media what precisely he wanted to change, he said “Many things, but the first will be our mindset. It is important that Tanzanians believe that it is within their ability to achieve great things both individually and as a country….. We want to establish very high standards for public servants. There will be zero tolerance of corruption and bad government.”

If the CCM candidate selection process results in a stalemate, a possible compromise might be Chief Justice Augustine Ramadhani, from Zanzibar who is a practising Anglican Christian and might attract a following in both Zanzibar and the mainland of Tanzania.

“I don’t know”
The sagacious political commentator Elsie Eyakuze pointed out in The Citizen that in her view “by far the most interesting finding in the poll was that a full third of the respondents, when asked whom they would vote for, replied that they didn’t know”. She went on to say that “a significant portion of voters is willing to step away from Tanzania’s ‘strong-man formula of politics’ and consider alternatives such as better government!” She went on: “A grimmer interpretation could be that we have got ‘indecision paralysis’ because the options all look a bit unwelcome”. Eyakuze said that she hopes that the numbers of uncommitted voters will grow and grow. Unable to conceal her feminist views, she also pointed out that the most popular contenders in the elections “will all be men of a certain age. No one with a uterus or direct personal experience of the Twitterverse is going to get within sniffing distance of the office of President”.

Memorandum of Understanding
In a sensible move which will help the two smaller opposition parties to survive, a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) has been signed between the two big opposition parties – CHADEMA on the mainland and CUF in Zanzibar and two small parties, NCCR-Mageuzi and the NLD, all of which have MPs in the National Assembly. Under the MOU the parties will field and support only one candidate (at all levels including the presidency) in the elections. This move should help in the survival of the two small parties and might even attract a few CCM candidates who are disappointed not to have been selected in the party’s candidate selection process.

The effect of the referendum
The referendum on the new constitution, according to present plans, will take place on 30 April 2015, six months before the presidential and parliamentary elections. It is difficult to forecast how this will affect the outcome of these elections. The Presidential Communication Directorate proposes to spend a large sum of money on the campaign for a “Yes” vote in the referendum and there will be a media blitz to persuade people to vote ‘Yes’. If they vote ‘No’ Tanzania could be in a constitutional crisis.

Zanzibar
Zanzibaris (one million people compared with some forty million on the mainland) tend to take elections very seriously and are likely to vote in large numbers in the constitutional referendum as well as in the elec­tions which will follow. But there have been rumblings of discontent about the way in which the constitution favoured by the CCM seems likely to be pushed through. Many Zanzibaris hoped that, if the alterna­tive three-party government had been accepted, Zanzibar would have a much greater influence in the future government of Tanzania.

There is also the future of the Government of National Unity between Zanzibar’s two main parties CCM and CUF to be decided. The coalition government, installed in 2010 following years of political violence, has succeeded in maintaining political peace in the Isles for five years. This could prove to be popular with many voters especially in view of the political turmoil which many of Tanzania’s neighbours have suffered since independence.

Biometric voting registration
Tanzania intends to prepare the way for the use of new electronic voter registration technology, using Biometric voters’ kits. The Treasury has made funds available for pilot schemes in Kawe, Katavi and Kilombero constituencies but there has been some delay because the relevant people have not yet been trained. The National Election Commission intends to train personnel from 169 districts in readiness for the nation­wide registration exercise.

ECONOMICS & BUSINESS

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by Valerie Leach

Poverty Reduction
Much of the news about the economy and business suggests fast-mov­ing new developments. Some of them, notably prospects for gas, are reported elsewhere in this journal. Nonetheless, the Tanzanian economy is still characterised as a basic agricultural one, where rural households continue to live in poverty.
In a recent survey of opinions about the challenges they face, Tanzanians said that poverty, health and education remain the biggest challenges, with 63% reporting poverty to be the biggest challenge (up from 49% in 2012). (Twaweza: “Tanzania towards 2015: Citizen Preferences,” Nov 2014).

The recently released report of the 2011/12 Household Budget Survey by the National Bureau of Statistics shows that one third of the rural population live below the poverty line. (NBS, Household Budget Survey, Main Report, October 2014)

Food Poverty
Rural 13.7 (2007) 11.3 (2011/12)
Dar es Salaam 3.2 (2007) 1.0 (2011/12)
Other Urban 8.9 (2007) 8.7 (2011/12)
Tanzania Mainland 11.8 (2007) 9.7 (2011/12)

Basic Needs Poverty
Rural 39.4 (2007) 33.3 (2011/12)
Dar es Salaam 14.1 (2007) 4.1 (2011/12)
Other Urban 22.7 (2007) 21.7 (2011/12)
Tanzania Mainland 34.4 (2007) 28.2 (2011/12)
Percentage of Population Living in Poverty, Tanzania Mainland, 2007 and 2011/12

Income poverty has been reduced in all parts of the country, but particularly in Dar, and the difference in poverty rates between Dar compared with elsewhere is more dramatic than ever. While the reduction in rural income poverty is modest, living conditions and access to communication improved from 2007 to 2011/12. The percentage of households living in homes with a modern roof has risen from 55% to 68% and those with modern walls from 35% to 46%.

Mobile phones
57% of all households now report having a phone, almost all of them a mobile phone. In rural areas, ownership of a mobile phone increased from 14% in 2007 to 45% 2011/12. Mobile phone ownership reached 88% in Dar and 77% in other urban areas in 2011/12. (NBS, Household Budget Survey, Main Report, October 2014)

Macroeconomic developments
GDP growth rates continue to be strong – 7% in 2013 and estimated by the IMF to be at this same rate in 2014. In October 2014 the annual inflation rate was 5.9%, a fall from 6.6% in September 2014. The NBS has revised the estimates of GDP, increasing the overall estimate of GDP in the base year of 2007 by 28%; and of agriculture GDP by 26%. The revisions result in estimated per capita GDP for 2007 at TSh 699,127 compared with the old estimate of TSh 547,081.

Government revenue and expenditure for fiscal 2013/14 was below target and development expenditure will continue to be adversely affected by the withholding by aid donors of general budget support. Recurrent expenditure amounted to TSh 10,085.1 billion, or 91% of target, while development expenditure was 70% of estimate. The shortfall in development expenditure in 2013/14 was on account of lower disbursement of project funds and shortfall in external non-concessional borrowing.
(Bank of Tanzania, Monthly Review, October 2014, www.bot-tz.org)

Annual growth rates of GDP at constant 2001 market prices

Annual growth rates of GDP at constant 2001 market prices

An IMF mission to Tanzania in October 2014 concluded that, “Macroeconomic performance has been broadly in line with the pro­gram, although new challenges have emerged during the last three months. Economic growth was strong during the first half of 2014 and is expected to remain close to 7% this year… Despite significant revenue shortfalls in the 2013/14 fiscal year compared to the original budget assumption, the fiscal deficit was contained to 4.4% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP)…. However, reflecting continued weaknesses in the ability to control expenditure commitments, this performance coincided with further accumulation of expenditure arrears… Combined with delays in the disbursement of budget financing from development partners, related to the Independent Power Tanzania Limited (IPTL) case, this has been a challenging backdrop for program implementation. .. The expected implementation of VAT reforms in early 2015 should help bolster the revenue base. The mission welcomes the government’s intention to address comprehensively arrears to suppliers and pension funds. (IMF Press Release No. 14/490, October 29, 2014)

Investment and Business
Within the East African Community, Tanzania recorded the highest Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) in 2013, according to the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) World Investment Report 2014. Tanzania’s inflows stood at $1.872 billion followed by Uganda at $1.146 billion. Direct investment from UK was the largest share, at 23% of the total. Recently discovered gas reserves in Tanzania are propelling investor interest. The report also noted that underdeveloped infrastructure has made the country a high-cost location for doing business. (The East African, 27 September 2014)

Tanzania is determined to float a planned $700 million bond in the international market. The government is hoping to capitalise on the investor appetite and stable markets that saw Kenya raise $2 billion in June at fairly affordable terms. Tanzania intends to fund the $1.23 billion Mtwara gas-pipeline project, a $10 billion port at Bagamoyo, new roads, railways and power plants. (The East African, 20 September 2014)

In August, the government announced that a project to construct a major centre to serve as a common entry point for imports from China will start before the end of this year. The centre will be run under a Public Private Partnership (PPP) arrangement with China represented by Yiwu Pan-Africa International Investment Corporation and Tanzania represented by EPZA. (The Citizen, 21 August 2014)

Trade Agreements
In September 2014, Tanzania joined Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda in rolling out the clearance of goods under the East Africa Community Single Customs Territory (SCT).The system seeks to eliminate dumping of goods in countries of transit, thus protecting industries and jobs. (The East African, 13 September 2014)

East Africa and the European Union (EU) have agreed on an Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA). As well as dropping customs duties, the agreement covers free movement of goods and cooperation on customs and taxation. More than half of the imports the EAC has agreed to liberalise are currently duty-free under the EAC Customs Union. Those subject to duty will be liberalised over a period of 25 years, with most of the cuts within 15 years. (The Citizen, 18 October 2014)

Free Trade Area
In December, the heads of state from 26 Eastern and Southern African countries are due to sign an agreement for a free trade area (FTA). Encompassing member states of the East African Community (EAC), Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) and Southern African Development Community (SADC), the FTA will cre­ate a market of over 800 million people. The EAC, which is already a common market, has four member states in COMESA and one member — Tanzania— is in SADC. Ten countries in the region are already members of customs unions. (The Citizen, 19 November 2014)

Rural Communications and Access to Finance
An investment by a Vietnamese firm, Viettel, estimated to be of TSh 1.7trn will connect at least 4,000 villages, about 40% of the country’s total number, to a 3G communication network by 2017. The launch of the project in Coast Regions came after President Kikwete visited the company in Vietnam. The firm has been contracted to connect all dis­trict hospitals, police stations, post offices and District Commissioners’ offices, plus three government schools in every district. (The Guardian, 14 November 2014)

Improved telecommunications are expected to help farmers’ access to finance. At a conference in Arusha in November, Vice President Mohamed Gharib Bilal said that poverty cannot be seriously addressed without removing constraints on productivity, including financing of smallholder agriculture and agribusiness. Governor of the Bank of Tanzania Benno Ndulu, said over two-thirds of the working population derived its livelihood from agriculture. Limited access to finance was an impediment to farmers in adopting better technologies. Developments in communication technology are improving the situation; 57% of adults currently have access to formal financial services compared to barely 15% in 2009.

A new study by the Economist Intelligence Unit confirms that Tanzania has the most conducive conditions in sub-Saharan Africa for expanding access to financial services for under-served populations. The use of mobile technology facilitates payment services, including those who have been under-served or unbanked, with the adoption of compre­hensive and conducive regulation of e-money and mobile payments.
(The Citizen, 20 and 24 November 2014)

FOREIGN RELATIONS

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by David Brewin

Becoming more friendly
There are signs that Tanzania is changing its rather distant relationship with other members of the East African Union. During recent months it has allowed its citizens to move money across its borders. However, on environmental and natural resources management, Tanzania is holding back. It appears to have been doing its ‘homework’ more thoroughly than the other partner states. Before the signing of binding agreements on the use of Lake Victorian waters and other scarce water and pasture resources, Tanzania argued that a protocol on such issues, already ratified by Kenya and Uganda, contradicted the provisions on trading in minerals. Tanzania stressed that access to and the use of land and premises should be governed by national policies and laws and that the protocol included provisions on marketing and trading in minerals which should have been restricted to protection of the environment.

Tanzania also noted that tourism should be removed from the protocols as it would be better covered under another accord now being negoti­ated. The EAC Secretariat was instructed to study the issues raised by Tanzania.

Burundi-Tanzania border
The border between Tanzania and Burundi was originally demarcated in 1924 during the colonial period. But, over the years, some natural border references such as rivers have changed their courses or dried out. Sometimes officials have demarcated part of the border by just marking trees. Although the African Union has declared that states wanting to make changes should do so by 2017, the presidents of the two countries are reported to have met to reaffirm the border between their countries.

Pressure on human rights in Tanzania
The European Union has begun to step up its pressure on Tanzania to change its laws on human rights. The Head of the EU Delegation, Ambassador Filibert Sebregondi, has advised the Tanzanian govern­ment to increase the minimum age of marriage for girls from 15 to 18 years, eliminate polygamy and abolish the death penalty and corporal punishment in schools.

AGRICULTURE

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by David Brewin

Politics and outdated livestock keeping
In a recent article by a (Tanzania) Guardian editor, views were expressed on the age-old clashes which occur between farmers and livestock keep­ers in Tanzania. This followed incidents in Kiteto district in October when four people were said to have been killed after a pastoralist was grazing his cattle on a neighbouring cassava farm.

Home Affairs Minister Mathias Chikawe said it was high time the political class met and agreed amicably on a solution. The editor went on: “The sense of law among livestock keepers is basically religious. The clan head, who conducts sacrifices or orders others to do so, would be the person to issue orders; not someone else. If one of them is arrested they can storm the remand prison or give bribes. They have more money than the peasant farmers… The situation was easier when Tanzania’s population was much lower and there was plenty of land for livestock keepers….with most land now under one or other form of use and grasslands much fewer, owing to deforestation and poor rains, to expect that habits built up over millennia can be ended by discussion is a forlorn hope. The government has to think up ways to end the present mode of livestock keeping and not rely on the stakeholders to solve the problem themselves.”

GM Crop controversy continues
The controversy about the use of genetically modified crops continues all over Africa. Only in South Africa, Burkina Faso and the Sudan can they be cultivated legally. Yet in 28 countries around the world and on 11% of the arable land, the growing of such crops has become the norm. About 90% of the maize, cotton and soya beans grown in the USA are now genetically modified. From the 1960s to the 1990s, yields of rice and wheat in many parts of the world have doubled; the average consumer began to take in a third more calories; and the poverty rate was cut in half. When Norman Borlaug, the famous plant breeder, won the Nobel Peace Prize in 1970 the citation read ‘More than any other person of this age he helped provide bread for a hungry world’.

Tanzania however still stands back, claiming that there are safety and environmental effects. Advocates of this view, quoted in the October issue of the National Geographic Magazine, say that expensive GM seeds represent a ‘costly input to a broken system’. Heavy-input agri­culture has no future: ‘We need something different. There are other ways to deter pests and increase yields that are more suitable’.

Horticultural exports booming
Horticultural exports from Tanzania, mainly of cut flowers, rose by 86% between January and June 2014 compared with the same time in 2013. Horticulture now claims to be the third source of foreign exchange after tourism and mining. The boom has been greatly assisted by Kenya’s action in lifting its ban on flowers and the levy on vegetable exports from Tanzania through Nairobi airport.

Illegal forest products
According to a study published by the Tanzania Natural Resources Forum (TNRF) and the East African Wildlife Society (EAWLS) the Kenya-Tanzania border is one of the most active transit routes for both legal and illegal movement of forest products. The Horohoro-Lunga border is said to be the main entry point for timber, charcoal and wood for carvings and some transporters are said to be falsifying documents, undervaluing their products or using unofficial routes to evade inspec­tion and taxation both in Kenya and Tanzania.

More fertilisers
By the end of 2015 a Norwegian firm Yara International (formerly Norsk Hydro) hopes to open a new $20 million 45,000 tonne fertiliser terminal as part of Tanzania’s Kilimo Kwanza project. This should help Tanzanian farmers to protect themselves from expensive imports. The project targets 350,000 hectares of land to be put under commercial production.

Blast fishing ‘getting out of control’
Blast fishing is illegal in Tanzania but still prevalent. Fishermen use locally obtainable fertiliser mixtures and small fuses to make explosives, which are then dropped overboard. The underwater shock waves stun the fish, rupturing their swim bladders so that they float to the surface and can then be easily swept in nets. There are fears that, unless this practice can be stopped, the artisanal fishing industry could collapse, more fishermen might be injured by the explosives and those fishermen caught by the police will continue to have to pay bribes to avoid going to prison. It is estimated by ‘Smart Fish’, a fisheries programme funded by the EU, that the profit made on each blast can be as high as $1,800.

ENERGY & MINERALS

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by Roger Nellist

Statoil’s seventh Tanzanian gas discovery
Statoil and its co-venturer Exxon Mobil have continued their extraor­dinary drilling success by making another – their seventh – natural gas discovery offshore Tanzania. In October, Statoil’s Senior Vice President for Western Hemisphere Exploration, Nick Maden, announced the discovery of an additional 1.2 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of natural gas in-place, through the drilling of their ‘Giligiliani-1’ well, and said that this discovery opens up additional prospects for the partners’ on-going multi-well drilling programme. The Giligiliani-1 discovery is located on the western side of Licence Block 2, which Statoil operates on behalf of Exxon Mobil and the Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation (TPDC), and brings the total of gas volumes in-place to 21tcf in that Block. (For comparison: 1tcf = 180 million barrels of oil equivalent). Like the earlier wells, Giligiliani-1 lies in very deep water (in depths of about 2,500 metres), which will make the eventual commercialisation of these gas discoveries technically complex and hugely expensive. The consortium’s drilling rig “Discoverer Americas” has now moved to the central part of Block 2 to drill an eighth well on what is termed the ‘Kungamanga’ prospect.

Mnazi Bay gas sales agreement
In September the Tanzanian government signed an agreement with the licensees of the Mnazi Bay and Msimbati gas fields in southern Tanzania for the supply of gas through the long Chinese-built pipeline to Dar (see Tanzania & Extractives article earlier in this issue).

Petroleum contracts: TPDC officials arrested and released
The ongoing controversy over the undisclosed terms in 26 petroleum Production Sharing Agreements (PSAs) negotiated between the govern­ment, TPDC and foreign oil companies came to a dramatic head on 3 November when the chairman of the parliamentary Public Accounts Committee (PAC), Zitto Kabwe MP, had TPDC’s Board Chairman Michael Mwanda and its acting Director James Andilile arrested for failure to deliver to the PAC copies of the PSAs and certain other docu­ments. The two men were apparently arrested in a committee room in the Parliament building in Dar but, after questioning, were later released without charge. The police said legal clarification was needed from the Attorney General before any prosecution of the TPDC officials could proceed. The PAC believes that the PSAs should be scrutinised by Parliament in the interests of transparency and to ensure that the national interest is protected. Tensions arose earlier this year when the Gas Addendum to Statoil’s PSA was leaked publicly and the terms were then criticised (by Kabwe, among others) as being insufficiently favourable to Tanzania. However, like many other countries, the practice in Tanzania is not to disclose negotiated petroleum and mining agreements, which the par­ties agree to keep confidential for business reasons. It is understood that in Tanzania the terms of such agreements are usually negotiated by an inter-Ministerial GOT team and then approved by the Cabinet before signature. TPDC said it was bound by confidentiality provisions and could not hand over copies of the PSAs unless it got permission to do so from the oil companies concerned, and that it was awaiting guidance from the Attorney General and the Ministry of Energy and Minerals. Minister Sospeter Muhongo then confirmed that his Ministry would not submit the PSAs to the PAC, citing ‘technical reasons’. It is understood that the PAC then warned that it still intended to pursue the matter.

Tanzania to become a major rare-earths producer
Australian-listed Peak Resources Ltd is fast tracking the development of its 100%-owned ‘Ngualla’ rare earth metals (REMs) project in Chunya District, 150 kilometres from Mbeya. REMs are high-value raw materi­als used in the electronics industries and in other hi-tech applications. Discovered in 2010, ‘Ngualla’ is one of the largest and highest grade REMs deposits in the world. The company’s 2014 Prefeasibility Study indicates a maiden ore reserve in excess of 20 million tonnes, containing almost 1 million tonnes of rare earth oxides. The large, high grade and low radioactivity nature of the deposit, that can be mined through open pit operations and processed on site over a period of more than 50 years, should result in a low cost, low risk and highly profitable project. The company expects first production in 2017. (See www.peakresources.co.au for further details).

Tougher mining taxation terms agreed
It was reported in October that AngloGold Ashanti and Geita Gold Mine were the first companies to sign a new, tougher tax deal for mining companies – which for several years have been thought to be enjoying too generous a fiscal treatment. In 2008 President Kikwete ordered a review of mining company taxation and appointed a presidential committee to advise the government on necessary changes. The new deal reflects the committee’s recommendations and replaces the earlier Mining Development Agreement (MDA). The new terms are tougher for the companies in four respects. First, royalty will now be levied at the rate of 4% of the gross value of mineral production (instead of 3% of net profit), though the rate will be increased to 5% for gemstones. Second, the 15% VAT waiver has been scrapped. Third, the fee that mining companies pay for services they receive in the mining areas – the Service Levy – has been increased, from the previous flat rate of $200,000 to 0.3% of mine turnover. Fourth, the additional capital allowance of 15% that mining companies could claim in their tax computations under pre-2001 MDAs has also been abolished. When signing these new deals, Minister Muhongo said that Tanzanians were right to complain that the country was not profiting as much as it should from mining and that the situation had now changed. He estimated that Geita district in Mwanza region, for example, would now receive $1.8 million annually in Service Levy to fund development needs, up from $200,000 currently. It is understood that company executives expressed themselves “comfortable” with the changes.

Stamico to take over four mines
The Tanzanian government has decided to take over four mining operations which larger mining companies consider to be unprofitable. The mines will be run by the State Mining Company (Stamico) – a state-owned enterprise established in 1972 – through a newly established subsidiary. In an exclusive interview to The Citizen on 1 September, the Deputy Minister for Energy and Minerals, Stephen Masele, named the mines as: Biharamulo Gold mine (formerly owned by African Barrick Gold); Buckreef Gold Mine in Geita Region; Tanzanite One; and Kiwira coal. Masele said that these mines would be beneficial to Stamico and make significant contributions to state coffers. He cited the Biharamulo Gold Mine (formerly known as Tulawaka) – which has about 100,000 ounces of gold left to mine, on which Stamico can make a profit of TSh 7 billion during the next three years but for which a mining giant like ABG finds the operating costs unduly high. Buckreef is now processing an Environmental Impact Assessment and mining license, whilst Tanzanite One and Kiwira coal are both still operational (the latter with expansion plans).

TOURISM & ENVIRONMENTAL CONSERVATION

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by Mark Gillies

China and Tanzania’s Elephants
“The current situation for Tanzania’s elephant population is dire in the extreme. The country has lost half of its elephants in the past five years and two-thirds since 2006. Available evidence indicates it has since lost more elephants to poaching than any other country in Africa and is the biggest source of illegal ivory seized around the world. Its once mighty herds are being devastated by remorseless criminal organisations.”

So begins the chapter on Tanzania in the recently published report, ‘Vanishing Point’ by the Environmental Investigation Agency (EIA) in which the country is described as the source for the vast majority of the illegal ivory currently being traded between Africa and Asia. The EIA is an independent campaigning organisation whose carefully researched report (available to download in full at http://eia-international. org/wp-content/uploads/EIA-Vanishing-Point-lo-res1.pdf) has laid bare the extent of the threat to the natural resources of Tanzania.

The publication of the report created headlines, many of which focused on the link with China and the peak in the price of ivory in Mwenge Market, Dar es Salaam, when ships from the Chinese Navy were docked in harbour and when official delegations flew in.

‘Vanishing Point’ makes for sad, but impressive reading. As a report, it clearly documents, in great detail, the ‘epidemiology’ of the current poaching epidemic going back to its resurgence in the early years of the last decade following a period of recovering from the slaughter of the 1980’s. This in itself is a positive thing because, as any doctor will tell you, understanding a disease is the first step to curing the patient and, let there be no mistake, Tanzania is sick.

The current poaching crisis is linked to pervasive corruption through all levels of society, starting with the park ranger who divulges the details of a patrol for a few dollars, right up to the powerful individuals with connections to the highest levels of government who benefit the most from the trade in illegal ivory. Archaic and ineffective executive structures in the Ministry for Natural Resources & Tourism and other government bodies contribute to making law enforcement very difficult to achieve.

While this report deserved the extensive coverage it received, many of the articles it prompted did not clearly describe the context in which the report should be read. Much of what ‘Vanishing Point’ describes happened over the past 5 to 7 years. The authors make the point that since the end of 2013 (and the waves caused by Operation Tokomeza), life is not as easy for the poachers in Tanzania as it once was. President Kikwete and his government have stopped lobbying CITES to down-list the elephants of Tanzania and so legalise the trade in their ivory; the current Minister for Natural Resources & Tourism, Lazaro Nyalandu, has successfully secured $50 million worth of international anti-poaching assistance; and the revenue protection scheme has been re-instated for the Selous Game Reserve, a first step in providing adequate funding for sustained and effective anti-poaching operations.

As reported previously, 2013 was the first year in which more contraband ivory was seized inside Tanzania, rather than outside of the country. On 2 November, the Tanzania Daily News reported how Tanzania had been congratulated for the fact that 4 months had passed in the Selous without an elephant being poached (http://allafrica.com/stories/201411031541.html?aa_source=nwsltr-tanzania-en). Local sources are not keen to endorse this fact, but all agree that the numbers being lost have slowed.

On 24 October, the Daily News also reported the creation of a Rapid Response Team to combat poaching in the area of Ruaha National Park under the SPANEST Programme, Strengthening the Protected Areas Network in Southern Tanzania, a UNDP-funded project being operated by TANAPA, the Tanzania National Parks Authority.

With committed and concentrated action, and assistance from the international community, it should be within the capability of the Tanzanian Government to combat the disease of wildlife poaching once again, but they have to want to. Even if the land mass to protect is vast; ports and roads are few; the masterminds are even fewer in number. And it should be remembered, that if they fail, it is all Tanzanians that will suffer, not just the elephants. But the fight is a tough one that sadly has human casualties, such as those who lost their lives when a recently donated anti-poaching helicopter crashed in Dar es Salaam, as documented by Wolfgang T Home.

Those who deserve the blame in this sad story are not the Chinese masses who buy the ivory, hopefully they can be educated; nor the poor people at the bottom of the production pyramid, who risk all for a handful of dollars. Those who deserve blame – and punishment – are the few individuals who have used power and influence to pervert the course of justice, to gain (further) immense wealth, to destroy a shared birth right and to undermine the name of a nation.

Those who must be remembered and supported are the brave men and women who will not be corrupted and who risk their lives to protect the natural resources of Tanzania.

Tanzanian Government spokesman Assah Mwambene termed the EIA report ‘questionable’. The government accused the West of trying to spoil the good relationship between Tanzania and China and said that EIA had no proof.