by David Brewin

Yet another political party
As if Tanzania did not have enough political parties – there are twenty – there is now another one! This party, now going through the processes of official registration, bears the name; ‘The Alliance for Change and Transparency’ (ACT). It is believed that it has been set up by former members of the leading opposition party Chadema, which is the only party to have a chance of defeating the ruling CCM party in the 2015 elections. CCM has been in power for more than 50 years. ACT’s interim chairman said that the party would be guided by five principles – patriotism, equality, accountability, transparency and true democracy.

‘Traitors’ in Chadema
The main opposition party Chadema, which did well in the 2010 elections, is now being torn apart by internal dissension. According to The Citizen, a group of its members have written to the Registrar of Political Parties on alleged illegal amendments to the party’s constitution, and to the Controller and Auditor General requesting an audit of the party’s accounts. Others have apparently accused the party of removing illegally a section on term limits for presidential candidates in Chadema’s constitution which could have made the party’s two main leaders ineligible for leadership posts’.

Some observers think that these events are simply ‘business as usual’ in Tanzanian politics ahead of elections. Many of these members have defected before – mainly from CCM to Chadema or other smaller parties.

Potentially more damaging is the revolt of perhaps Chadema’s most ambitious and charismatic former Deputy Secretary General, Zitto Kabwe, MP for Kigoma. Kabwe has been virtually expelled, together with other party members in the Kigoma and Tabora regions. He played an important role (see TA 108) in establishing the party’s growth, especially among the younger generation.

CCM in trouble too
In the case of CCM, too many people want to put themselves forward as candidates for the presidency. But the party has severely frowned on this premature campaigning and is threatening severe penalties for those engaged in it.

All this is disheartening for those wanting Tanzania to develop into a democracy on the British model where governments change from time to time to reflect the changing views of the electorate. But most Tanzanians regard security and peace as their highest priorities. People continue to vote for CCM in large numbers because, unlike the situation in all its neighbours, Tanzania and CCM have given the country peace and a relatively good state of law and order.

Calm before the storm
The present political scene, and especially the highly contentious debate on the constitution, could lead to stormy times in the next few months. With most politicians installed in Dodoma for the deliberations of the Constituent Assembly, the ruling party and the opposition parties have begun to worry seriously about the forthcoming 2015 elections. For the first time, three main opposition parties have come together in a ‘Coalition of the Peoples Constitution’ (UKAWA). Unless the CCM drops its determination to continue with two governments, Chadema has threatened to boycott further meetings of the Constituent Assembly (see separate article).

Chadema goes much further in threatening not to take part in the 2015 elections under the current constitution because they claim (perhaps with some justification) that the present law favours the CCM. Chadema is concerned to ensure that the nearly six million new young voters will be correctly registered before the 2015 elections. It fears that the country could go to the polls before a new and fairer constitution comes into effect. It wants to see the setting up of a new; independent (of government) Electoral Commission which will not receive orders from any government authority and will have only members not belonging to any political party. It also points out that, although over 20 million people registered to vote in the last election in 2010, only 8.6 million actually voted.

Municipal elections are due in October this year but the present National Electoral Commission says that it cannot afford to update the register twice between the two elections and is seeking funds to buy a biometric system with which to update the permanent voter register for both the constitutional referendum and the 2015 general election (but not for the local elections this year).

Salim retires from the ring
Respected Tanzanian ‘elder statesman’ Salim Ahmed Salim, who is highly qualified for the presidency and reached the last stage of the presidential primary contest in 2005, has indicated that he no longer plans to stand for the presidency in 2015. He is believed to have been disillusioned by ‘political machinations’ at that time. He said that a good track record in leadership had not been enough to guarantee him victory. He is now 72 and says that younger blood should get the chance.

What next for President Kikwete?
President Kikwete has received much praise following his recent recognition by the African Leadership Magazine as Africa’s ‘Most impactful Leader of the year 2013’. In a rare interview with the press, the President told The East African that when he returned to private life he would look after his cattle and expand his pineapple farm.

The costs of democracy
The Tanzanian government has released the amount of subsidy it paid, during a recent four-year period, to the political parties. The figures correspond to the strength of the party representation in the National Assembly and the Zanzibar House of Representatives.
The amounts received were as follows:
CCM – $31.8 million
CHADEMA – $5.75 million
Civic United Front – $3.93 million
NCCR Mageuzi – $423,125
Tanzania Labour Party – $135,025
United Democratic Party – $20,625
APT Maendeleo – $ 6,875
Democratic Party – $2,062

The quality of financial control exercised by the parties left much to be desired and the Parliamentary Public Accounts Committee revealed that none of the political parties had kept proper financial records. Some parties did not even have bank accounts! Presumably, in these cases, the money went in to private accounts. The then chairman of the committee, Zitto Kabwe, was quoted in the East African as saying that political financing was the largest single driver of large-scale corruption. “It has taken four years for this audit to be implemented but it has been done and we have shown that fighting corruption must start with political institutions. A foundation has been built for cleaner politics.”

The immigration problem
As in Britain, immigration is becoming a major political issue in Tanzania. Legislation is being considered for possible action on foreign workers. President Kikwete has said that the number of foreign workers has reached an “alarmingly high figure” and that a bill will be introduced in Parliament in October to limit the number of work permits issued to foreigners, even if they come from other parts of East Africa. The other members of the East African Community seem likely to oppose this.

by Ben Taylor

As the Tanzanian political scene gears up for the 2015 presidential and parliamentary elections, CCM remain in a strong position, despite a growing challenge from Chadema.

But who exactly supports Chadema, and who backs CCM? It has often been assumed that Chadema draws most of its support from a young, urban demographic, while CCM retains strong support in rural areas, though there has been little information available to back this up.

Recently released data from the Afrobarometer initiative, a continent-wide public opinion survey, allows us to examine this question in more detail. The survey asked the standard opinion poll question: If an election were held tomorrow, which party’s candidate would you vote for?

Support for CCM Chadema with age range

First, the survey found that support for Chadema was indeed substan­tially stronger among 15-29 year olds (at 33%) than the over 50s (14%). Conversely, support for CCM rises with age, from just under half the 15-29 year olds (47%), and nearly three in four of those over 50 (71%). Support for CUF and other parties was negligible.

(This survey was conducted in 2012, so those who were 15 at the time will be of voting age by the time of the 2015 election.)

Support for CCM and Chadema versus education level

There is also a strong link between a voter’s level of education and their party affiliation. At each successive level of education, support for CCM dropped, and support for Chadema rose. Among those with post-secondary or university-level education, support for Chadema was higher than for CCM – 51% v 30% among university graduates. Support for CCM among less well-educated groups remains well ahead of Chadema. Among those with primary education, CCM has the support of a strong majority: 59% to Chadema’s 23%.

Since those with primary education or below represent three quarters of all potential voters (8% have no formal education, 13% have some primary education and 58% have completed primary education), this suggests Chadema have a lot of work to do to bring less-well-educated voters to their side.

Opinion poll data – a staple of political journalism across much of the world – have only very occasionally been available in Tanzania. The fast turn-around times of UK-style polls is simply not possible in Tanzania, where there is no easy way of quickly producing a random sample and few organisations have both the capacity and the credibility to carry out polls.

However, two separate initiatives have begun to fill this gap. Twaweza [‘we can make it happen’] have set up a nationally representative sur­vey panel, reachable by mobile phone, and are now conducting twice-monthly public opinion surveys. This initiative is known as Sauti za Wananchi – Voices of the People.

And the Afrobarometer initiative, a periodic Africa-wide survey of public opinion, has recently published data from its 2012 survey round, including Tanzania. This article draws exclusively on Afrobarometer
data.

by Enos Bukuku

Throughout March and April the Constitutional Assembly (CA), the body tasked to come up with a final draft Constitution, was marred by divisions between two informal coalition groups within the Assembly.

“Tanzania Kwanza” is largely made up of CCM members; whilst “UKAWA” (Muungano wa Umoja wa kutetea Katiba ya Wananchi – Coalition of Defenders of the People’s Constitution) is formed mainly from members of the opposition parties.

The arguing and political mud-slinging is focussed almost exclusively on one issue: the nature of the relationship between Zanzibar and main­land Tanzania – “the union question”. Should Tanzania continue with a two-government system (i.e. Tanzania and Zanzibar), or adopt a three-government structure (Tanzania, Zanzibar, Tanganyika), also referred to as a “federal” government?

As the Constitutional Assembly’s first session broke up in April – to allow MPs to return to parliament for the annual budget session – UKAWA’s frustrations with CCM intransigence on the union question led them to walk out on the Assembly. UKAWA is thought to have considerable support among the Tanzanian public.

In 2010, as part of their election manifestos, both Chadema and the Civic United Front (CUF) pushed for a three-tier government, which had previously been proposed by various groups and commissions over the past 30 years or so. The Constitutional Review Committee (CRC) took the initiative and incorporated this into both the first and second drafts of the proposed constitution, which according to Joseph Warioba, Chairman of the CRC, “was aimed at safeguarding the 1964 merger between Tanganyika and Zanzibar”.

It has been argued by supporters of the three-government system that it streamlines the governmental structure and gives Zanzibar more autonomy, thus maintaining stability between mainland Tanzania and Zanzibar. Judge Warioba has gone on record several times to state that most Zanzibaris are in favour of the three-government idea, though this has been challenged by some Zanzibari politicians.

President Kikwete has been vocal in his objection to the proposal; in his opening speech to the Constitutional Assembly, he stated that a three-government system will not add value and will create problems. CCM, which had previously housed a wide range of opinions on the matter, fell quickly into line behind the president.

The delay in debating the draft constitution has had a knock on effect on new laws being drafted. Proposed energy legislation, for example, which could make Tanzania the first exporter of liquefied natural gas in East Africa, may now have to wait until next year.

Changes to the law to ensure better rights for women, children, the disabled, the press, and many other vulnerable groups are likely to be enshrined in the new constitution if it goes ahead. The issue of dual citizenship has received attention from a few high ranking politicians who suggest that its inclusion will be debated in the Constitutional Assembly. However, it is believed that dual nationality is more likely to be incorporated within a separate Act of Parliament rather than within any new constitution. Bernard Membe, the Foreign Minister, told the National Assembly in May: ”We believe that the time is ripe for our country to have an Act that allows dual citizenship, in the interest of our nation’s development”.

All these issues hang in the balance until the Assembly deadlock is broken.

The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) has also been closely monitoring the situation. In May UNDP Administrator Helen Clark criticised UKAWA for its walk out earlier in the year and urged that they voice their concerns and discontent through the forum of the Assembly, rather than refusing to participate. This has been echoed by Judge Warioba, warning that failure to reach an agreement may plunge the country into a political crisis.

Kenyan politician and legal scholar Patrick Loch Otiendo Lumumba has been asked to mediate in the CA and ease the tensions between UKAWA and Tanzania Kwanza.

The CA Chairman, Samuel Sitta, also sought to broker peace between the rival groups with a reconciliation meeting scheduled for 24 July. The UKAWA members did not show up, arguing that it was pointless as CCM continue to hold a firm line on the union question. Deus Kibamba, chairman of the influential civil society group, Tanzania Constitution Forum (TCF), has called for the debate over the new constitution to be delayed until after next year’s elections. There are many who believe that Tanzania will not get a new constitution because both groups will never reach a consensus.

The debate on the Constitution is due to resume in August. The president has authorised a further extension of the time, allowing 60 days from 5 August for the CA to finalise the draft constitution before it can be presented to the public for a vote. At the time of writing, UKAWA continues to boycott the Assembly, though Sitta insists it will carry on regardless.

This raises two questions: Will the CA have sufficient members present to vote on the articles of the new constitution – will it be quorate? Without UKAWA members, it looks to be very close. And if votes are possible, will a new constitution written by a CCM-dominated Assembly have sufficient popular legitimacy and support to pass a national referendum, and stand the test of time?

It would be a bitter shame if it all collapses at this stage, wasting billions of shillings, years of preparation and most importantly, a golden oppor­tunity to address many of the fundamental problems that the country faces. An independent observer may be forgiven for reaching the con­clusion that Tanzanian politicians excel at forming coalition groups, but underperform in implementing objectives. The next few months will show whether such an observation is unfair.

by David Brewin

Tanzania and the EAC
Three East African Community (EAC) member countries (Kenya, Rwanda and Uganda) continue to forge ahead in signing agreements and strengthening their relations, while Tanzania and Burundi, the other members, remain either absent from discussions or self-excluded because so many of the new development programmes do not directly concern their countries for geographical reasons.

Examples include the dramatic fall in the clearance time for goods going from Mombasa to Kampala – down to 4 days compared with 12 days previously, and from 21 days to 6 for goods going from Mombasa to Kigali (Rwanda). There has been a substantial lowering of costs. This is the result of the East African Single Customs Territory (EASCT), which ministers from the three countries have recently signed.
Under a new special visa deal, foreign residents can get a single six-month multiple entry visa for US $100 valid in all three countries (i.e. not including Tanzania). This compares with the earlier cost of $150. The three countries are also participating together in various international tourist fairs.

From August 2014 the tax on mobile phone calls between the three countries is being reduced by 20%. Plans were being prepared for Tanzania to join in this.

Rwanda
After the rough period in relations between Tanzania and Rwanda last year, relations seem to be slowly getting better again. Rwandan President Paul Kagame said he would readily honour an official invitation to visit Tanzania if he received one because Tanzania meant a lot to him, as did the survival of Rwanda and the stability of the region. Tanzania’s State House responded by saying that the idea was not only welcome but was also a critical step in normalising relations between the two countries.

North Korean arms
A recent UN report has claimed that that 18 military technicians from North Korea had been involved in the refurbishment and repair of Tanzanian F-7 fighter jets and other military aircraft at the its Air Force base in Mwanza. The journal Africa Confidential has reported that although N. Korea has no diplomatic representation in Tanzania, two senior officers had been seconded to the Tanzanian Peoples Defence Forces. The report said that Uganda, Ethiopia and Eritrea were also engaged in providing military assistance.

Tanzania has strongly denied the allegations. “Tanzania has no trade relations with N Korea. UN sanctions are specific. They are about trade and we don’t have any trade deals with North Korea,” said a Foreign Affairs spokesman. He added however that maybe the TPDF may know more.

North Korea is believed to have developed sophisticated ways to circumvent UN sanctions, including the suspected use of its embassies to facilitate an illegal trade in weapons, and making use of complicated financial techniques “pioneered by drug-trafficking organizations” , so that tracking the isolated state’s purchase of prohibited goods is more difficult.

The 127 page report was compiled by a panel of eight UN experts and is part of an annual audit of North Korea’s compliance with UN sanctions imposed in response to Pyongyang’s banned nuclear weapons and missile programs. The panel reports to the UN Security Council.

“From the incidents analyzed in the period under review, the panel has found that (North Korea) makes increasing use of multiple and tiered circumvention techniques,” a summary of the report said.

Chinese ambassador speaks frankly
In a wide ranging interview given by Chinese Ambassador Lu Youqing to the Hong Kong newspaper South China Post (quoted by the Citizen) he touched on some delicate parts of Chinese relations with Tanzania and Tanzanians.

On corruption he said that in 2011 his country had made amendments to its criminal law so that it was now a criminal offence for Chinese nationals to bribe nationals in foreign countries.

The Ambassador voiced his concern about “shoddy” work being carried out by some Chinese contractors in neighbouring countries and said that some infrastructure projects had been undertaken by Chinese companies at unrealistic prices. They had been building roads for between $300,000 and $400,000 per km but the real cost was much higher and he wondered what would happen to these roads in five years’ time.

The Ambassador expressed his disappointment over “bad habits” that tarnished China’s image in Tanzania. For example he mentioned corruption and illegal ivory trading. “Our people just cannot shake off their bad habits. When they come to Africa, they are not united and engage in infighting as usual” he said. He referred to competition among Chinese companies over contracts and bribes offered to Tanzanian officials to lobby on their behalf.

On violent crime targeting Chinese nationals in Tanzania he said: “Tanzania has ambassadors from about seventy countries but none of them needs to constantly worry like us about consular protection issues, police harassment and robberies targeting Chinese citizens.”