Exchange Rates (December 1 1993):
US$ = 475 – 490 Shillings
£ Sterling = 680 – 730 Shs.

IMPORT AND EXPORT LICENCES NO LONGER NEEDED. The Government has revoked the system which required licences for the import of all goods except for a few related to health and safety and also eight luxury items. Importers will now have to fill in forms available at banks and foreign currency shops but these will be needed only for statistical purposes and will not involve permits. The Customs Department will not in future be able to delay or halt the transport of goods outside the country – Radio Tanzania.

TRAVELLING ALLOWANCE INCREASED. citizens travelling to neighbouring countries will in future be able to take up to US$5,000 instead of US$500. Those travelling longer distances will be entitled to have up to US$10, 000 compared with US$ 3,000 – Radio Tanzania.

LICENSING REMOVED. All licences for the export of goods have been removed. Reporting to the National Assembly on the Government’s intention to raise the country’s tourism potential the Minister, Mr Juma Hamad Omar, said that 43 out of the 63 applications for tourist development received by the Investment Promotion Centre in 1992/93 had been accepted. Some 23 international airlines had applied for commercial service. There had been an increase in the number of tourists from 186,800 in 1991/92 to 201,744 in 1992/93 and this had earned the nation US$120 million compared with US$94 million in the previous year – Daily News.

TANZANIA ALIGNS CURRENCY. The Bank of Tanzania has announced a harmonisation of its exchange rates. The ‘official’ rate, previously used for a range of government imports, western aid and items such as oil will in future conform with market rates used by the private sector since last year – Financial Times.

SECURITIES MARKET. The Governor of the Bank of Tanzania has announced that capital and securities markets, designed ultimately to lead to the establishment of a Stock Exchange in Tanzania, will be established early in 1994 – Business Times.

COTTON MARKET LIBERALISED. The Government has waived price control on cotton; authorised marketing agents and other buyers are being encouraged to offer competitive prices to cotton producers – Sunday News.

ALL IMPORTS SUBJECT TO PRIOR INSPECTION. All imports, not just those of more than US$5,000 in value, as previously, will be subject to pre-shipment inspection in future, the Governor of the Bank of Tanzania has stated. The move is aimed at curbing tax evasion and foul play, he said – Daily News.

FROM QUITE GOOD TO VERY BAD. In a report on World Bank projects in Tanzania, which have cost US$ 1.5 billion between 1961 and 1987, the Bank’s Operations Evaluation Department has summarised the variable success rate which has been achieved. Major problems causing difficulties have included bad project design and preparation, lack of skills and deficient staffing in the Bank and on the Tanzanian side, inadequate government support, undue haste in launching follow-up projects, Tanzania’s inadequate absorptive capacity, and powerful pressures within the Bank to lend more – The Express.

SANCTIONS LIFTED. Tanzania lifted sanctions on trade with South Africa on November 11. 1993. They had been in force since 1963 – Daily News.

A VENTURE CAPITAL FUND LAUNCHED. At the launching of a new Tanzania capital Venture Fund (TVCF) the Chairman of the Parastatal Sector Reform announced that multilateral firms operating in Tanzania would, in future, be exempted from the requirement to pay uniform taxation. The new Fund will participate in equity and quasi-equity joint venture investments in local companies with high potential. Most of the TVCF investments will be in existing businesses seeking second-stage expansion capital. Maximum investment will be US$500,000 – Business Times.

179 UNDER INVESTIGATION. The Minister of Home Affairs and Deputy Prime Minister, Augustine Mrema, has stated that 179 companies and individuals are under investigation for alleged misuse of donor funds. He said that his ministry had received numerous complaints from members of the public and Parliamentarians over rampant embezzlement and swindling of donor funds. He cited the funds as being the Open General Licence (OGL), Commodity Investment Support (CIS) and the Debt Conversion Programme (DCP). Dubious means had been employed to obtain precious foreign exchange. He listed the names of the individuals and firms involved – Daily News.

DE BEERS IN CONTROL. The South African firm Willcroft Ltd, a subsidiary of the De Beers corporation , now holds 75% of the ordinary shares of the Shinyanga-based Williamson Diamonds Limited. Its previous shareholding had been 50%. For the last twelve years Williamson Diamonds has been making losses on its annual production of 70,000 carrats of diamonds. Willcroft will pump in about US$3.5 million to rehabilitate the mine – Business Times.

PRICE CHANGES. The price of cement was reduced by 150 shillings per 50-kilo bag and the price of petrol and diesel increased by from 12 to 23 per cent at the beginning of October – Daily News.

FERTILISER SUBSIDY ASSURED. Prime Minister Malecela announced at the end of November that the government would import 185,000 tons of fertiliser for the forthcoming farming season and it would continue to be subsidised at 25%. He said that the national annual demand was 260,000 tons and that 60,000 tons had already arrived. He said that importation of fertiliser remained a headache to the Government because of fluctuating prices – Daily News.

MOBILE PHONES. Tanzania Posts and Telecommunications Corporation and Millcom International have formed a joint venture company to implement and operate a cellular mobile telephone network in Tanzania – Business Times.

NEW INVESTMENT AREAS. The Government has released a new list of 82 areas for investment by local and foreign investors in a revised edition of the Investment and Promotion Act. A detailed list was published in the Business Times indicating that 16 areas were reserved for local investors, 12 were under the ‘ controlled and reserved’ category and 54 were in the general investment category – Business Times.

AVOID THE WORD ‘NDUGU’ IN OFFICIAL CORRESPONDENCE
Public servants should avoid addressing people with political pomposity like ‘Ndugu’ or ‘Comrade’ in official correspondence because this was against Standing Orders, declared Mr Robert Kisususu, an official in the Office of the Prime Minister and First Vice-President. Officially the style should be ‘Mr’ or ‘Bwana’.

A Member of Parliament should be addressed as ‘The Honourable’ and not ‘the Honourable Mr’, a judge of the High Court should be addressed as ‘The Honourable Mr Justice X’. Mr Kisusu said that terms like ‘capitalist’ and ‘imperialist’ had no room in official public service correspondence and should be reserved for political platforms.

STRONG WORDS FROM CATHOLIC BISHOPS
According to a news agency report at the end of November Catholic Bishops in Tanzania have issued an unprecedentedly critical letter under the title ‘Sincere Intention, the Compassion of Our Nation’ expressing concern about government accountability. They spoke of a nation bankrupt and squandering the public’s assets. This had been caused, the Prelates said, by the greed of a few people seeking to benefit themselves at the expense of others.

The bishops said that the government had ignored the public’s views on the squandering of public assets including land, minerals and wildlife. They called for legal action against those involved.

‘The nation has no orientation because the perception of socialism and self-reliance, which had the intention of guiding the nation towards cooperation, love, mutual respect, and mutual assistance in elevating development, has now been usurped by a community of people who have responsibility and ability with which they are biting off the assets of the nation between themselves’.

Tanzania, like many other countries in the Third World, suffers from a heavy burden of foreign debt. The causes are complex. Some imprudent borrowing may have occurred during the seventies, when records of foreign debt and debt servicing were inadequate and uncoordinated and an overview of the nation’s obligations would not have been possible, while assumptions about economic growth were made that in the event proved much too sanguine. But the main cause was the severe economic recession of the eighties, leading over a number of years to a negative growth rate per head and an economy increasingly unable to bear the weight of debt. As a result, much bilateral debt, especially that owing to countries outside the main industrial group, and many commercial obligations have fallen into arrears, giving rise to the imposition of penalties and leading to the accumulation of new debt by capitalisation of the arrears.

DEBT TAKES 59% OF REVENUE FROM EXPORTS
By 1991 Tanzania had acquired the unenviable status of a ‘low income, debt-distressed economy’ and was no longer able unaided to work its way out of its difficulties without the prospect of further widespread and extremely damaging default on existing obligations. Tanzania’s total external debt, which at the end of 1986 amounted to about $3.9 billion, by the end of 1992 had passed the $6 billion mark. In 1991, expressed as a percentage of gross national product (GNP), the average stock of foreign debts in all countries of the world amounted to 37%, in Sub-Saharan Africa as a whole 109% and for Tanzania no less than 256%. Notwithstanding some alleviation as a result of rescheduling and other relief measures, debt service obligations still remained at 59% of revenue from the export of goods and services in 1990-91. Tanzania’s indebtedness had thus reached crisis proportions and was exercising a damaging influence on the prospects for economic recovery.

In Tanzania arrangements for the recording and handling of foreign debt have hitherto proved ineffective as a control mechanism in the absence of a single authority for the recording, monitoring and supervision of debt and debt servicing. As a result, there could be no clear picture of the extent and nature of the country’s present and prospective external obligations. This situation has now been remedied by placing the responsibility for the monitoring of all external debt and advising the Government on debt management in the hands of the External Debt Department of the Bank of Tanzania. At the same time, with the help of the Commonwealth Secretariat, new computerised procedures for the recording and analysis of debt and debt-related matters have been instituted, using CS-DRMS software.

The central problem facing Tanzania is the insupportable volume of debt and the need to bring it within reasonable limits. The importance of this goes beyond a reduction of debt servicing to the point where it constitutes a reasonable charge on export revenues. An excessive debt burden leads inexorably to default and default undermines confidence and imposes higher and unnecessary costs on commercial transactions. It also discourages foreign investment. Hitherto it has been necessary for each instalment of interest and capital on foreign debts to be the subject of a separate application for foreign exchange and some commercial creditors have been waiting many years for a posi ti ve response, even where debtors have met their obligations in local currency. It is therefore essential to reach a situation in which, once a credit deal has been approved, all subsequent debt servicing is automatic.

At the end of 1991 Tanzania, with one or two exceptions such as the East African Development Bank, the League of Arab States and the OPEC Special Fund, was up-to-date in honouring its obligations to the main multilateral financial institutions, notably the World Bank, and to the principal industrial donor countries. The country’s obligations to the multilateral bodies constitute about 35% of the total external debt, some 90% of which is on concessional terms I free of interest with fifty year periods of maturity. Nevertheless, with the progressive ending of grace periods, the servicing of concessional debts is expected to rise from $19 million in 1992 to $49 million by the year 2000. The servicing of much of the remaining 10%, which is on quasi-commercial terms, will be assisted by the World Bank’s concessional wing, the International Development Association (IDA), under the Special Programme of Assistance for Africa and by bilateral donors. IDA debt, under current rules, cannot. be waived or rescheduled.

REDUCING THE DEBT RATIO
That part of intergovernmental debt that is owing to the Principal industrial countries (about 40% of the total in 1991) has already been rescheduled four times, providing relief in respect of debt service obligations. In January 1995, it is hoped that it will prove possible to include within the scope of the new arrangements what is known as the ‘Trinidad terms’. This plan, originally put forward by the UK Government in 1990, provided for the writing off of two thirds of the stock of non-concessional inter-governmental debt. The effect of this measure, if confirmed, has been estimated to bring Tanzania’s stock of debt as a percentage of GNP down to a level marginally below the average for Sub-Saharan Africa. Further growth of the economy on present prospects should reduce the ratio to below 60% by the year 2000. Debt cancellation would also reduce the annual cost of debt servicing to the region of 20% of the earnings from the sale abroad of goods and services by 1996 and to the region of 10% by the end of the century. It is hoped that in the meantime debt to countries not included in the above arrangements can be rescheduled on similar lines.

Some of the outstanding commercial debts have been protected by export credit guarantee arrangements in the creditor countries and therefore in effect rank as official debts, subject to the arrangements described in the foregoing paragraph. Arrangements are now in train to redeem the remaining uninsured debts and outstanding suppliers’ credits by means of a buyback scheme operated under the IDA Debt Reduction Facility. The effect of the buyback scheme is to purchase debts in convertible currency at discounted rates by means of an IDA loan, thus converting the obligation into a highly concessional debt of 50 year maturity.

It is hoped that the complex of measures described in this paper will enable Tanzania within a few years to regain control of its foreign debt servicing to a reasonable charge on its external resources. Such an outcome can powerfully stimulate the economy by releasing valuable foreign exchange hitherto used for debt servicing, but more importantly, by restoring Tanzania’s reputation as a good trading partner. Essential to the changes now in train is the new centralised system of debt management, which will enable the Government, to forestall any future tendency towards over-commitment.

While the reduction of the debt stock to a manageable size and the restoration of automatic debt servicing is likely to provide a boost to the economy, the newly imposed self-discipline will also restrain over-hasty development. Almost all new development increases the demands made on the external sector of the economy, but any attempt to meet such external obligations by borrowing beyond prudent limits cannot fail to damage economic prospects. It is thus necessary for planners to calculate the foreign exchange implications of all major planning proposals, including the subsequent external requirements for maintenance purposes. Data of this kind is as essential for orderly debt management as it is for successful economic development.
J Roger Carter

EXCHANGE RATES Bureau de Change August 19
Dollar – Shs 465
Pound – Shs 690

NET INFLOW. Tanzania registered a net inflow of some US$ 20 million in the first ten months of activity by the Bureaux de Change shops first opened in April 1992.

MORE THAN 430 PROJECTS worth Shs 200 billion have been approved by the Investment Promotion Centre in Oar es Salaam since 1991.

NEW BANKS. The first two foreign banks under the Banking Reform are the Meridien BIAO which opened on August 9th (1,200 people opened accounts on the first day) and the Standard Chartered which was due to open in September 1993. The Government owned National Bank of Commerce (NBC) closed 29 non-viable branches in July.

Bank of Tanzania Governor Gilman Rutihinda (49) died of cancer of the pancreas in London on June 20th. Thousands of people attended his funeral in Dar es Salaam. He is succeeded by Dr. Idris Rashid who was formerly Managing Director of the NBC.

“TANZANIA HAS ALL THE CRITERIA NEEDED FOR JAPANESE INVESTMENT” said Dr. K Konoike, President of the Koinike Construction Company and Honorary Consul of Tanzania in Os aka . These included a good human rights record and the move towards a market-oriented economy. Dr. Konoike’s company is engaged in rehabilitating Dar es Salaam’s road system as part of the Shs 20 billion Japanese aid programme in the 1992/93 financial year.

PRIVATISATION AND OWNERSHIP. ‘Parastatal enterprises have become a burden to the Government and to the economy as a whole …. the move to privatisation rests on the need for the Government to relieve itself of this enormous burden …. the offer of shares to the public is not possible in the absence of a capital market and (in selling) the enterprises the balance of advantage is in favour of the ethnic minorities – the Asians and Arabs for not only do they have long experience but they also have the capital … what matters in the end is to get a commitment to the goal of developing the indigenous entrepreneurial class without necessarily putting breaks on the growth of other groups’ – F M Kazaura, Principal Secretary, Planning Commission in an article in the ‘Business Times’ .

FIRST TANZANIA-CHINA JOINT VENTURE. President Mwinyi has launched the Tanzania Jeifang Company Ltd in Dar es Salaam. It will assemble 6-ton trucks and later manufacture local components.

TCFB ROLE QUESTIONED. Participants in a workshop on trade facilitation in Dar es Salaam questioned the relevance of the Tanzania Central Freight Bureau (TCFB) saying that its existence was a burden to the already long and complicated import procedures and documentation process. One participant cited the eleven stages which had to be followed when exporting.

The INTERNATIONAL FUND FOR AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT ( IFAD) has granted US$15.1 million for the Southern Highlands Extension and Rural Financial Services Project.

The WORLD BANK/IDA has made four new credits: – US$ 74 million for the execution of part of a multi-donor Telecommunications Rehabilitation Programme;
– US$ 34.9 million to support public sector institutional capacity building;
– US$ 24.5 million to help pay for institutional changes in the Ministry of Agriculture;
– US$ 200 million for a hydroelectric power facility near the little and great Ruaha rivers.

The EUROPEAN COMMUNITY has granted Shs 25 billion for the import of commodities under the Structural Adjustment Programme.

BRITISH AID. Britain was the chief foreign supplier (£78.6 million in value) and main export market (£21.1 million) for Tanzanian goods in 1992. Britain supplies over 25% of Tanzania I s imports, Italy 18%, Germany 16%, the USA 10% and Japan 9%. Some 370 Tanzanians are studying in Britain at present and 120 VSO volunteers are working in Tanzania.

TANZANIA TOOK ADVANTAGE OF THE RECENT INCREASE IN THE GOLD PRICE. The Bank of Tanzania raised $50 million for 129,000 ounces of pure gold @ 381 and 392 dollars per ounce.

TANZANIA COULD OVERTAKE SOUTH AFRICA, CANADA AND AUSTRALIA IN MINERAL PRODUCTION according to the Commissioner for Mineral Resources. Last year the mining sector contributed 16% of the GNP and, given proper mining machinery and tools, Tanzania could produce 30 grammes of gold per tonne compared with 2 grammes per tonne in South Africa. There were good prospects for nickel, cobalt, copper, diamonds, rubies, tourmaline, tanzanite, saphire, emerald, and amethyst.

“TIMES HAVE CHANGED” said the head of the Swedish International Development Agency. “Tanzania used to have a very special place in our hearts. But a lot of the good theories and ideas (we admired) failed. Instead, a lot of uneconomical state organs and authorities were built up …. The previous relationship, during which Tanzania took the largest single portion of Swedish aid is not (now) there …. I was here in 1974 and Government control systems were much better then – there were reporting systems, follow-up systems, auditing … but they don’t function today …. you need to have very strong government coordinating bodies to ensure the implementation of the rules otherwise you won’t get the money . … Tanzania should speed up its civil service and parastatal reform programme”.

BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES. Each week the Dar es Salaam ‘Express’ publishes lists of business opportunities received by the Board of External Trade from foreign countries. The following are recent examples: sisal (enquiry from a company in India), blue cowhides (Italy), dried sea cucumbers (Singapore), Beeswax (UK), Portland cement (Malaysia), spices (Holland), dried shark fins (Hong Kong), sesame seeds (France).

SALE OF PARASTATALS. The Parastatal sector Reform Commission has advertised for sale 100% of Rubber Industries Limited and a majority equity interest in Southern Paper Mills Ltd.

BEWARE OF FRAUDULENT NOTES! Conmen in Dar es Salaam are producing false 100/- and 500/- notes.

THE BUDGET FOR 1993-94

Three decisions of the greatest importance to the future of Tanzania distinguished the budget for 1993-94. Firstly, a gradual withdrawal of the Government from direct involvement in the productive sector of the economy will make possible greater concentration on basic economic and social infrastructure and the creation of an environment favourable to economic progress. The resulting contraction of the Government machine will enable it to close the gap between revenue and expenditure, which hitherto has been brought into balance by foreign grants and by borrowing from the banking system, in the latter case with serious inflationary consequences.

Secondly, measures have been taken to strengthen economic services by increasing the provision of resources for maintenance – particularly important for road maintenance and telecommunications services.

Thirdly, the effectiveness of resource allocation will be increased by compiling a rolling three year plan. The five year plan, which it has been the custom hitherto to issue at equivalent intervals, will henceforth be confined to broad indications of development policy, while operational decisions and priorities will be guided by the rolling three year plan. It is expected that the new system will not only provide a rational basis for the planning of priorities but also enable the Government to confine development within sustainable limits.

The progressive withdrawal of Government from productive activities and measures to increase the efficiency of the Civil service will inevitably lead to the termination of employment of large numbers of civil servants. The Government is sensitive to unemployment and, following a survey of opportunities for employment in the informal sector, the Planning Commission is working on a National Employment Policy to identify areas for job creation and measures necessary for increasing efficiency and productivity. At the same time the Government aims to create a smaller, highly motivated and skilled Civil Service with levels of remuneration commensurate with their contribution to the work of government.

Throughout the budget proceedings runs an emphasis on the role of the private sector and the mobilisation of private capital. To this end, a study on the establishment of a stock exchange is to be undertaken and the Government is also investigating the steps necessary for the establishment of a money market, of which the beginnings already exist in Bureaux de Change.

The budget of 1993-94 has been drawn up under the shadow of retrogression in the previous year. Inflation, which had ducked below 20% in 1990, rose to 23% in 1992. One cause of this was the drought in the catchment area of the Mtera dam, leading to a fall in the water level and interruptions in the supply of electricity to the national grid, with serious consequences for industry. Another cause has been the continuing widespread use of borrowing from the banks to balance the books. In the face of this unfavourable trend, the budget combines retrenchment with measures to increase revenues. Twelve diplomatic missions abroad are being closed and the money saved used in part to help fund the remaining missions. Apart from savings arising from the reduction in strength of the Civil Service, the provision of fringe benefits to entitled officers will be carefully controlled. Payment of water, electricity and telephone bills by the Government will be replaced by the issue of cash up to a specified limit. stricter rules will be applied to the use of Government transport, the number of vehicles will be restricted and the surplus sold by auction. A commission is to be set up to examine other possibilities of saving in the provision of Government services.

After taking account of grants from donors, a recurrent account deficit of Shs 32,416 million will remain. Part of this will be met by improvements in tax collection. Adjustments in the rates of tax are expected to yield a revenue of Shs 10,498 million. These changes are also designed to facilitate the introduction of Value Added Tax in next years budget. Other fiscal measures are expected to raise Shs 21,918 million, sufficient to cover the deficit. The Government has set its face firmly against the resort to borrowing from the banks to meet a revenue shortfall. On the contrary, provision has been made to repay outstanding obligations to the banks in the sum of Shs 39,392 million out of revenue. Any deficiency arising incidentally during the year will be financed by the issue to the public of Treasury Bills.

Throughout the proceedings in Parliament there has been a clear recognition of the limited time during which external support for the economy can be expected. As the Minister of state (Planning) reminded the House, any outside help that might be given should play a catalytic role and complement local efforts. Meantime, a growth target of 4.5% per annum, a fall of inflation to 10% by June 1996 and a reduction of reliance on external financing were the reasonable objectives of the rolling plan for 1993-96 and it is devoutly to be hoped that they will not be frustrated by the vagaries of climate or other unexpected catastrophe.
J Roger Carter

Following the publication of the Arusha Declaration on 29th January 1967 the foreign banks hitherto operating in Tanzania were nationalised and responsibility for commercial banking vested in the National Bank of Commerce on the mainland and the People’s Bank of Zanzibar on the islands of Unguja and Pemba. In June 9967 the National Bank of Commerce operated from 35 branches and total deposits amounted to TShs. 763 million. By June 1991 there was a network of 198 branches and 239 mobile offices accepting three times the volume of deposits in real terns. Growth of this dimension was in itself a remarkable achievement, but it was accompanied by serious and growing defects, which considerably reduced the bank8s ability to meet the demands made upon it for the purposes of economic recovery and development.

The first problem was in part a result of the bank’s own phenomenal growth. While lending in the private sector (14% of the total loan portfolio) was well managed, private deposit banking procedures developed in the days of small scale banking proved unable to meet the needs of a rapidly growing and increasingly moneterised population. The result has been growing delays, poor customer performance, inadequate internal controls and an increased resort by the public to cash transactions. There are in addition special problems arising from the parlous state of the telephone system, which affects communications with branches using telex or fax, and postal delays caused by the unreliability of the overstretched air services, It is clear that there is in the immediate future no perfect answer to the problem of organisation. Nevertheless, it is believed that the introduction of computerisation combined with measures to improve staff skills and attitudes could greatly improve standards of performance.

The tribulations of the commercial banks have, however, been compounded by circumstances beyond their control. Their role as an engine of development by financing economic enterprises has always been acknowledged, but the autonomy of the banks in deciding on the commercial justification for loans has been seriously restricted by the Government and the Party, who from time to time have insisted on loan facilities in loss making circumstances. The result has been the accumulation of bad debts which, in the case of the National Bank of Commerce, amounted in December 1989 to TShs 68,500 million. This access to loan finance for loss making parastatals, crop marketing boards and cooperative unions has acted upon these bodies as a disincentive to putting their own houses in order. Ss far as the National Bank of Commerce was concerned it has had the result that the bank was only saved from insolvency by the intervention of the Bank of Tanzania. Money creation for such purposes is a serious cause of inflation. Moreover, since the parastatals, cooperative unions and crop marketing bards accounted for 86% of outstanding bank credit, the bank’s ability to meet the needs of growth in the private sector was severely limited.

In July 1988 President Mwinyi established a Presidential Commission of Enquiry into the Monetary and Banking System of Tanzania. The Commission, working under the chairmanship of Mr. C.N. Nyirabu, a former Governor of the Bank of Tanzania, submitted its final report on 19th July 1990. The report, which, unhappily, has not yet been published, was wide-ranging and covered the entire financial sector. Since the future performance of the banks depended on Government policy with respect to the crop marketing boards among other changes external to .the banks themselves, the Commission did not hesitate to offer advice in these areas also. Above all, the Commission called for a reconsideration of the role of Government in economic affairs. It recognised the Government’s overriding responsibility by the passage of laws and the provision of the institutional framework to determine the general character and direction of economic activity, but having set up the machinery and decided on the broad lines of policy it was the duty of Government to leave commercial decisions to the banks and other financial institutions each in their own allotted spheres of activity.

The Commission recognised that the commercial banks could not operate effectively as engines of development so long as their loan portfolios remained encumbered by a very large volume of non-performing credits. Following the Commission’s advice, a Loans and Advances Realisation Trust (LART) endowed with powers as receiver and liquidator has been set up and all such loans, including assets lodged with the hanks as collateral, have been transferred to it.

Outstanding among the numerous recommendations of the Commission was their belief in the benign influence that competition could have on the standards of performance of the commercial banks and other financial institutions. This opinion was shared by the Government and resulted in the enactment of the Banking and Financial Institutions Act 1991. This Act empowered the Bank of Tanzania to license any bank, including a foreign or joint venture bank, subject to the fulfilment of certain conditions, to operate in Tanzania. So far, only the Standard Chartered Bank has been thus licensed, though other applications are believed to be in the pipeline, It is understood that Standard Chartered was intending to begin operations in 1993 and that its operations for the time being would be confined to Dar es Salaam. Provision has also been made in the 1991 Act for foreign banks not intending to transact business with Tanzania to open representative offices, Hitherto only the Equator Bank has been authorised by the Bank of Tanzania under this provision. A decision on the recommendation of the Commission to divide the National Bank of Commerce into three separate banks is understood to be in abeyance.

Owing to the overriding importance to Tanzania of the export drive, the Commission looks to the competing commercial banks to improve their procedures and to be innovative in their response to the needs of exporters. To this end they advise that the commercial banks should be allowed to hold portfolios of foreign exchange and be recognised dealers on behalf of exporters.

It is hardly surprising that far-reaching changes of the kind recommended by the Commission are taking some time to implement. They are, however, of critical importance to the country as it struggles to surmount the daunting difficulties of economic regeneration, While it is unlikely that the recommendations of the Commission will be carried out in every detail, it has certainly performed a great service in its analysis of the serious problems affecting the financial institutions of Tanzania, The changes now in train are being supported by a World Bank Financial Sector Adjustment Credit.
J. Roger Carter

The World Bank Mission in Tanzania has issued proposed guidelines for what was described in the BUSINESS TIMES (December 4) as a programme for Government withdrawal from the running of economic enterprises.

The Bank was said to consider that the programme would be a formidable challenge but could bring Tanzania to the forefront of the process of ‘divestiture’ in Sub Saharan Africa.

According to the guidelines, more than half of the regional cooperative unions would be liquidated, most regional trading companies would be auctioned and many regional transport companies would be sold by tender.

Only the Tanzania Cigarette Company and the Mtibwa Sugar Estates would remain relatively unchanged by the privatisation exercise because they are scheduled to make part of their shares available to private investors. Air Tanzania Corporation and Tanzania Breweries would undergo partial trade sale.

Several other good performing companies would be subject to full trade sale including MECCO, the Friendship Textile Mills, National Pharmaceuticals, Williamson Diamonds, Tanzania Distilleries, Minjingu Phosphate Company, Sabuni Industries, Mwanza Textiles, Tanzania Sheet Glass and Nyanza Glass Works.

Enterprises scheduled for sale by tender include Darbrew, Tanzania Hides and Skins, National Steel Corporation, and the National Engineering Company.

Several other enterprises would enter into a lease of assets – Musoma Textiles, Morogoro Polyester Textiles and Southern Paper Mills.

Enterprises scheduled for liquidation include the Tanzania Shoe Company, Tanita, Rubber Industries and Tanzania Instant Coffee.

Joint venture arrangements are already under way in the case of the New Africa Hotel, Tanzania Railways Hotels, Tangold Products Ltd and Landrover Tanzania Ltd.

CHANGES AT AIR TANZANIA
The Government has retired seven top executives (including the General Manager and the Director of Finance) and has demoted the Di rector of Operations and the Technical Director of Air Tanzania Corporation. This action followed within a few days of the appointment at the beginning of June of a new Chairman of the Board of Directors – Principal Secretary in the Ministry of Communications and Transport, Mr Richard Mariki.

The Government has also taken over Shs 12.4 billion accumulated debt. It is believed that a substantial percentage of the work force will be laid off and private investors will be invited to buy shares in the company.

The Corporation has announced increases in domestic tariffs of between 50 and 100% effective August 10, 1992 – Dally News.

THE 1992-93 BUDGET
The budget speech of the Minister for Finance was delivered in the National Assembly on June 18 1992 by Professor K A Malima who had recently exchanged jobs with Mr Steven Kibona as Minister of Planning. Thus, as Professor Malima generously acknowledged in his speech, a large part of the preparatory work had been supervised by his predecessor.

The underlying purpose was stated to be to continue the reforms towards greater market orientation and institutional financial responsibility set in motion in successive economic recovery programmes. Inevitably, therefore. a considerable part of the speech was devoted to a survey of reforms already begun or accomplished. The object of these changes was to open up the economy to private enterprise, to reorganise parastatal organisations on self-sustaining commercial lines, to expose the banking system to competition, to remove from the banks the severe handicap of non-performing assets and to institute various measures aimed at trade liberalisation and a wider access to foreign exchange. The full effect of these changes was likely to become visible only in the medium term. but already some encouraging results were emerging. In comparison with the previous year. the dollar value of exports was expected to show an increase of 7.4% Agricultural production was showing encouraging signs of expansion.

At the centre of the reforms needed was a progressive reduction of the Government’s dependence on external financing to balance not only the domestic budget , but also the country’s foreign trading and payment s account. Revenue in 1991-92 only financed two thirds of recurrent expenditure. the balance being made up out of foreign loans and grants, while export earnings only paid for about a third of minimal import requirements. The bulk of these deficiencies will eventually be made good as a result of economic growth, but a significant contribution was expected as a result of the institutional reforms now in train, or in prospect, and a generally enhanced regard for efficiency and productivity.

The continuing expansion of Government activities in recent years, beyond the limits of available revenue has led to a deterioration in the quality of Government services. an increase in the number of incomplete projects and neglect of preventive maintenance. It was therefore intended that the role of Government should be redefined with the aim of reducing its scope to a size capable of being financed out of revenue based on a small and highly efficient civ11 service. Government would withdraw from activities that could effectively be carried out by the private sector. Central to the remaining functions of Government will be law and order and the provision of economic and social services. In the case of the social services an element of consumer contribution is envisaged.

An element in the reform of Government business is the search for simpler procedures. In future the customs tariff will only contain four rates instead of five and excise duty only two in place of eight. But a notable change announced in the speech is a substantial reduction of customs duty, sales tax, income tax and company tax. The objectives here are to reduce costs of production, to alleviate the burden on consumers and bring about a reduction in tax avoidance . The effect on consumers is of special significance in view of the adverse effect of inflation on personal incomes. The abolition of customs duty and sales tax on all industrial raw materials will not only reduce costs, but also help industries to compete effectively in home and overseas markets. Other taxes have been abolished either because they are obsolete or because they are at odds with present policies. Examples are the 20% levy on the value of air tickets for foreign travel and a 1% tax on share capital.

A number of reasons were given in the budget speech for the decision to reduce taxes. It has been observed that, in view of the narrow tax base and the constant increase in Government services, it had become necessary to raise taxes by substantial amounts in order to balance the books. The result had been a marked reduction of the take-home income of the workers and a decline in revenue collection through tax avoidance. The tax burden was also adversely affecting industrial productivity.

The widespread reduction of customs duties and sales taxes and their abolition on certain items has prompted the Government to discontinue all exemptions hitherto enjoyed by Central Government, Local Government, political parties, religious institutions (except for items used in worship), Non-Governmental Organisations and charities. Local NGO’s and charities will not, however, have to pay tax on materials and commodities given them as donations to be passed on as free gifts to the needy and the poor.

The budget included the customary civil service salary increases to compensate for inflation. It was admitted that salaries were inadequate in view of the high cost of living and that efficiency had been impaired by a lack of appropriate working tools and poor remuneration. While little specific provision appears to have been made in this budget to ameliorate these underlying problems, it may be assumed that planned reduction in the scope of Government services will provide the necessary opportunity.

The budget is a courageous sequel to previous budgets and, in its fiscal provisions , a daring attempt to grapple with deep underlying problems. As a forecast of budgetary performance much reliance is placed on expected psychological reactions, which may or may not eventuate in whole or in part, but the attempt was certainly worth making. Will the new tax structure enhance production , increase efficiency, reduce absenteeism and raise expectations as a result of improvement in morale? Will the more moderate level of taxes reduce tax avoidance? Will simplification of Government procedures result in greater efficiency? All of these outcomes are justifiable hopes and it will be profoundly interesting to read in next year’s budget speech how far hope has been transformed into fact.
J Roger Carter

SOME OTHER BUDGET HIGHLIGHTS
– Minimum wage for civil servants raised from Shs 3,500 to Shs 5,000 (approximately £9 or US $17!) per month; – Abolishing excise duty on locally produced sugar, textiles, garments and cement ; Reducing corporate tax for local firms from 45% to 35%; foreign firms from 50% to 40%;
– Increasing licence fees for birth, death and marriage
– 10% income tax (15% for foreigners) on bank deposit interest ; 20% (once and for all) income tax on dividends;

Until the middle eighties, importers and others requiring foreign exchange had to apply to the Bank of Tanzania and to make out a case for an allocation in competition with other applicants. In practice this procedure had two main disadvantages in conditions of extreme foreign exchange shortage delays were inevitable and widespread and foreign trade was severely hampered; and, centralised allocation was not always found to be an appropriate mechanism for adjudicating between rival claims. With minor exceptions, all foreign exchange holdings had to be surrendered to the Central Bank, or to the National Bank of Commerce, in exchange for local currency.

In 1985 the central control of foreign exchange allocation was breached by removing the legal bar on the possession of foreign exchange in certain circumstances (‘own funds scheme’) and allowing exporters to retain a proportion of their foreign exchange earnings (‘retention scheme’) to meet the cost of importing machinery and raw materials and to import certain consumer items within a specified list deemed to raise public morale and offer an incentive for greater production (‘ incentive goods’) . The combined effect of these measures was to fill the shelves of the shops with goods, albeit generally at a higher retail price in shilling terms, and to raise spirits and expectations.

While these measures bypassed the bureaucratic process for the procurement of some of the imports needed to sustain industrial production, they were not sufficiently wide-ranging to deal with all urgent requirements of foreign exchange. Furthermore, black market dealings , though they provided an informal means of access to foreign exchange, were nevertheless illegal and were depriving the established channels of scarce foreign exchange.

Early in 1992 a new Foreign Exchange Act vested responsibility for management of the country’s foreign exchange in the Bank of Tanzania , including the power to make regulations. It became legal for any person to hold any amount of foreign exchange and to buy and sell it in the open market. In March 1992 the Foreign Exchange Regulations and the Foreign Exchange Bureau de Change Regulations were published in the Official Gazette. Bureaux de Change were set up in Dar es Salaam thus providing a legal basis for most of the transactions hitherto performed illegally. The device was not new, having been tried in a number of countries including Ghana and Uganda to good effect. It was hoped that this mechanism would go far towards undermining the black market and would draw into the public domain resources hitherto sidetracked into black market obscurity.

The rate of exchange is determined solely on a market basis at weekly auctions. As foreign exchange remains a scarce commodity, it is expensive and figures in excess of Shs 700 to the £1 have been quoted. Such figures reflect not only the scarcity of foreign currencies, but also provide holders of foreign currency with a strong motive for selling it to the Bureaux. At the same time, the official rate of exchange fixed from time to time by the Bank of Tanzania continues to govern applications for normal trade purposes through the banking system. This rate is in the region of Shs 500 to £1, revealing a substantial gap between the two rates. The official rate, which, under present policy, is moving slowly upwards in accordance with the rate of inflation, will tend towards stability as inflation is reduced to a figure comparable with that of Tanzania’s main trading partners. The Bureau rate, however, will continue to be the value at which supply is in equilibrium with demand in the Bureau market and in the immediate future is likely to remain well above the official rate.

It would be a mistake to designate either rate as the ‘right’ one as they are the result of different mechanisms and serve differing purposes. The Bureau rate reflects the extreme scarcity of foreign exchange and depends solely on the interplay of supply and demand. Under the present policy, on the other hand, the official rate is much nearer to the value at which the purchasing power of the shilling is in approximate equilibrium with the purchasing power of the dollar. It is the official rate that governs most commercial transactions, while the Bureau rote provides a useful safety valve in cases that cannot command commercial priority, such as international travel costs and overseas purchases for non-commercial purposes, It is, however, the Bureau rate that has less claim to underlying validity , as it is inflated by the present scarcity of foreign exchange.

With the expansion of Tanzanian exports and the progressive narrowing of the unfavourable balance of overseas payments, the difference between the official and the Bureau rates will diminish. Ultimately, when Tanzania’s foreign payments account reaches equilibrium, the exchange rate gap will disappear and present arrangements for the publication of an official rate will be discontinued. As scarcity of foreign exchange will no longer influence dealings, the market rate, as determined by auction, will fall to meet the official rate and thenceforth all dealings, apart from minor adjustments to different transaction costs for different sizes of transaction , will be based on the interaction of supply and demand .
J Roger Carter

(Eight Bureaux de Change now advertise their services in the Dar es Salaam press – Editor)

BIG ATTENDANCE AT LONDON INVESTMENT PROMOTION SEMINAR
A two-page spread in The Guardian called ‘Special Report: Tanzania’, greeted me on Thursday 21st May 1992. A handful of articles and several advertisements extolling the virtues of doing business in Tanzania, were a real surprise to me since I had never seen anything similar before; Nigeria, Kenya or Uganda perhaps, but never Tanzania. I soon realized that this was part of Tanzania’s investment campaign taking place in London with a Confederation of British Industry (CBI)/East African Association Seminar arranged for the following day.

‘The Changing Face of Tanzania: Business Prospects’ stimulated a huge interest. From Tanzania, the Prime Minister John Malecela, brought four ministers, the Governor of the Bank of Tanzania, George Kahama, Director of the Investment Promotion Centre (IPC) , plus numerous other officials. All the senior diplomats were assembled from the Tanzanian embassies in Europe. More than double the usual number of participants at CBI seminars were enrolled. The Conference Administrator reported that the phone had never stopped ringing with enquiries. When asked to explain the popularity of th s conference, she suggested it was due to the friendliness of the Tanzanians.

So, the following morning I joined the 230 men and 5 women to attend the conference at Centre Point. I had discovered a special entry rate of £30 plus VAT was available for members of the Britain-Tanzania Society (BTS) as the regular fee of £282 is certainly beyond my means. Also present from the BTS were Roger Carter and Trevor Jagger. The format of the day was speeches and questions, very ably and smoothly chaired by Tom Brazier, Chairman of the East African Association. Sir David Gilmore started proceedings with a very informative and welcoming speech. This was followed by presentations by the Tanzanian team.

Quite clearly, everything is changing. Tanzania is very keen to welcome business to its shores . Time and again we were reminded of the glorious scenic beauties of Tanzania from Kilimanjaro to the Indian Ocean, from historic Zanzibar to the Serenget1. We were also told of the vast potential for agriculture, fisheries, minerals and natural resources. The businessmen were told several times about the fiscal changes, no tax for five years, freedom to remit profits and dividends, and the assistance available to establish new work in Tanzania.

During the afternoon I attended a Workshop on Industry and Agro-Industry. There was a question posed which for me illustrates in cameo the issues ahead; “I am in the fisheries business based for many years in Mombasa, Kenya. Two years ago, I moved down to Tanzania and am now based in Dar es Salaam. I have orders for ten tons of octopus a month but my current fishing fleet capacity can deliver only one ton a month. I have discovered three fishing vessels in Dar es Salaam that were part of an aid package from Italy some years ago. They are operating at only one tenth of their capability. I need ships, they need more work; how do we create a successful partnership?”

This also illustrates dramatically, the ecological and social issues which were conspicuously absent from the day’s deliberations. Only Alistair Boyd from the Commonwealth Development Corporation spoke of the need to take into account the social and ecological consequences of economic development. This example leaves me asking many questions:

-Will Tanzanians benefit from this change of economic policy?
-Do Tanzanians want all their octopus taken?
-Do Tanzanians want any of their other natural resources exploited?
-Does Tanzania have safeguards in place to protect it from over development ? (which means money and people to monitor activity).
-Who benefits and who loses out?
Judith Holland

POINTS MADE BY PARTICIPANTS:
– Tanzania produces 1% of the total world output of coffee, cotton and tea . Coffee estates are up for sale. Investment is required for cashew nut and pyrethrum processing. Sisal is Tanzania’ s number four foreign exchange earner; Tanzania is soliciting the private sector to purchase or enter into joint ventures with sisal estates – Investment Promotion Centre
– The UK is still Tanzania’s leading trading partner with a 22% share of the market . Our closest competitors are Italy (16%), Japan (13.3%) and Germany (11.7%). In 1991 we exported goods to the value of some £73 million and imported £21 million – mostly tea and coffee. Britain’s Area Advisory Group for the Department of Trade and Industry has designated Tanzania as one of its ‘markets to watch’ and it is possible that it will consider an investigative mission in 1993. Tanzania’s remarkable stability gives it advantages over many of the neighbouring states. It is to be congratulated on its marketing and cooperative reforms, political pluralism, independent press, the record in human rights . . .. But it is a competitive world. There have been changes in banking but no foreign banks are yet operating in Tanzania; none of the parstatals have been sold or liquidated yet; there is need for progress on a double taxation agreement and there is the problem of outstanding commercial debts dating back to 1979 – Sir David Gilmore, Permanent Under-Secretary of State at the Foreign and Commonwealth Office.

– Many people neighbouring Tanzania have found the country to be a safe haven whenever they felt severely threatened in their own countries .. . even the wild game have the same feelings . It is no wonder that Tanzania has 25% of her territory reserved for game parks … ,. It is our intention to make the Investment Promotion Centre a ‘One-Stop-Centre’ to speed up the process of approving investment projects .. . . Between 1990 and April 1992 some 35 projects which are wholly owned by British firms or in partnership with Tanzanian counterparts have been set up …. I really hope that you will be able to look into new possibilities – John Malecela.

– The factors which were most influential in our deciding to increase our investment in Tanzania were the stability and remittability of funds but …. we have encountered some resistance from minor offici also to the implementation of IPC investment approvals and there is continuing uncertainty on who in Government is responsible for privatisation and who we should negotiate with – Tom Brazier, Chairman, Brooke Bond Ltd.

MASSIVE COTTON CROP
Although final figures were not available at time of going to press it is apparent that the 1990 – 1991 cotton crop has been the highest in nearly three decades. By November 11th the Tanganyika Cotton Marketing Board had collected some 458,000 bales and the General Manager of the Board, Mr Timothy Shindika, said that the total could reach 500,000 bales.

PRIVATE SECTOR EXPORTS UP
Businessmen in the private sector exported goods worth US$ 169.34 million in the 1989/90 and 1990/91 financial years, the Minister of State in the President’s office , Prof Kighoma Malima, has announced. This was, he said, 19% above the target.

The Professor went on to say that the Investment Promotion Centre had so far approved 22 projects from foreign investors, 53 joint ventures and 97 others from local entrepreneurs. 47% of the projects were in the industrial sector, 17% in agriculture, 15% in tourism, 10% in natural resources, and 6% in transportation – Daily News

FIRST SOUTH AFRICAN PLANE
The Daily News reported in its November 1st issue that a South African Airways (SAA) plane was expected in Dar es Salaam – the first flight to the country since Tanzania’s independence. The plane came to collect more than 100 exiles living in Tanzania.

Meanwhile, the Business Times, in a front page article quoting the Director General of the Board of External Trade, wrote that Tanzania was running out of time to penetrate the important South African import/export market. Others were reported to have said that, as late comers, Tanzania could find most of the trade and economic opportunities taken up by competitors. Tanzania, unlike other SADCC countries , was said to be placing politics above economic realities.

SIDA AND USAID UNHAPPY
Representatives of two donor agencies have been making some surprisingly critical remarks recently.

The Swedish Development Agency’s Head of Development Cooperation, Mr Bo Westman, announced in September that SIDA was temporarily blocking funds meant for development activities in Tanzania, pending publication of all grants in public accounts and explanations on the ‘misallocation of funds by the Treasury to unintended projects’.

And the outgoing Director of the US Agency for International Development (USAID) Mr Jo Stepanek, in a ‘Monograph on Tanzania’s Development’ stated that ‘the corrosive forces of population growth and public corruption are severely undercutting Tanzania’s ability to produce and to govern. Donor dependence sustains the elite as it threatens sovereignty’.