It seems to be the exception rather than the rule for a railway to be self-financing and it is certainly true that the Tazara Railway depends heavily on government support. Nevertheless, in the long term, it would seem likely to provide an essential service to Tanzania in linking up Dar es Salaam with the potentially highly productive Southern Highlands. One of Tanzania’s greatest problems lies in the great distances that separate the most productive areas from potential markets and export outlets. Among the most important questions facing the Tazara Railway is its long term financial viability. Bilateral donors and the World Bank certainly did not consider its future prospects to be sufficiently bright to justify their financial involvement. In the end the Railway was built with Chinese capital and employing Chinese technical and managerial know-how. But the justification was not based solely on a careful evaluation of financial prospects. An overriding consideration was the short-term need to provide land-locked Zambia with an outlet to the Indian Ocean as an alternative to South African ports and in view of the liberation struggle in Mozambique.

The railway was handed over to the governments of Tanzania and Zambia as a going concern by the Chinese in 1976 with a rated freight carrying capacity of 2.5 million tonnes per year. However, a maximum of 1.273 million tonnes in 1977/78 has never again been approached and in 1982 goods carried reached only 796 million tonnes or 32% of rated capacity. In 1989 goods carried amounted to 1.044 million tonnes on a declining trend (1.143 in 1988, 1.185 in 1987).

The reasons given by the Government for this poor performance were insufficient motive power and rolling stock together with technical and manpower constraints. Inadequate maintenance of the permanent way over the years has contributed to the Railway’s difficulties. A consequence of this deterioration, exacerbated by a landslide between Mlimba and Makambako in 1989 was a reduction in the speed of trains. An increase in the turn-around time of wagons from 13 days in 1988 to 18 days in 1983 further exacerbated the problem. Shortages of spare parts and accidents have contributed to the problems of the Railway Authority. In contrast to the declining trend in the amount of freight there was a continuing increase in the number of passengers. The growth has been continuous since 1985 and by 1989 had reached 1,704 million, a 5.2% increase over the previous year. On the Tanzanian side this increase was attributed to the shortage of buses, the poor condition of the roads and the favourable level of rail fares in comparison with those charged on buses (1).

Under the terms of the Tanzania-Zambia Railway Act 1975 the ultimate responsibility for the railway lies with the Joint Council of Tanzanian and Zambian Ministers set up under an agreement between the two governments on 2nd May 1975. The running of the railway was to be en trusted to a Tanzania-Zambia Railway Authority under a Board of Directors and constituted as a body corporate under the laws of both countries. The Council consists of three Ministers appointed respectively by each government, and is required to meet not Less than twice a year and to consider and determine all questions of policy and, in particular, to approve all major changes in tariffs charged and services rendered by the Authority; any major revision in salaries and conditions of service; all development plans; capital works costing more than five million shillings, or such higher sum as the Council may determine; the construction of new branch lines and the raising of capital. Thus the Council retains extensive and explicit powers of control. Being a political body, there is a clear danger of attaching too great an importance to short-term and political considerations.

In the context of these powers the Authority is required to conduct its business in accordance with commercial principles and to ensure that, taking one year with another, revenue is sufficient to meet its outgoings, including proper allocations to reserves, provision for the depreciation of capital assets, the servicing of loans and the financing of pensions. The Authority is also liable to repay to the two governments any amounts contributed by them to the Authority’ s resources and the loan obligations to China (2).

STIFF COMPETITION
Financial viability in the sense thus required by law has never been attained and there is at present little prospect of commercial balance. With the restoration of Zambia’s access to the ports of Beira and Nacala and the opening of the highway between Dar es Salaam and Lusaka the railway now faces stiff competition in its cross frontier business. Moreover, the use by Zambia of South African ports is no longer avoided with the same tenacity as before and is likely to increase. The shortage of wagons led recently to an accumulation of 90,000 tonnes of Zambian cargo at the Port of Dar es Salaam of which 41,500 tonnes consisted of fertiliser and the rest wheat, vegetable oil, detergents, equipment and spare parts (3). Such delays are hardly likely to improve the Authority’s commercial reputation. Moreover, the effectiveness of the Board of Directors as commercial managers could be attenuated unless there is a definite policy of restraint on the part of the Council of Ministers or indeed, perhaps a change in the law. For example, a marked improvement in the salaries and status of maintenance staff might be judged necessary to overcome problems with the permanent way which have bedevilled the railway from the outset. But, as things stand, any such decision would require the consent of the Council.

In existing circumstances the longer term prospects for the railway are bound up with economic developments on both sides of the border. Much of the Mbeya Region has considerable economic potential, which would be greatly enhanced by efficient rail communications. Such services will require improvements in the supply of wagons and motive power and a determined effort to reduce the turn-around time at the termini. The arrival, towards the end of 1990 of 17 diesel electric locomotives from America will have helped to relax the strain on existing resources but more will be needed. So far as the financial administration of the Authority is concerned, growing pressure by the Treasury will help the drive towards greater efficiency.

(1) Hali ya Uchumi wa Taifa katika Mwaka 1989: Mpigachapa wa Serikali. Dar es Salaam. 1990.
(2) The Tanzania-Zambia Railway Act. 1975.
(3) Tanzanian Economic Trends. Vol 1. No4. January 1989.

J. Roger Carter

The failure to use local consultants was a ‘Betrayal’ according to Robert Rweyemamu writing in the January 18th issue of Dar es Salaam’s Business Times. The article began by stating that behind every successful project there is always a successful consultant. ‘Yes, consultants are a brand of businessmen who seem to be indispensable in every walk of life’. ‘Occupying a place of dominance in the field of consultancy in Tanzania is the Tanzania Industrial Studies and Consultancy Organisation, otherwise known as TISCO. It was established under Act No 2 of 1976. It is an interesting piece of legislation. On the one hand it gives TISCO’ s big wigs the power to monitor and vet employment of local and foreign consultants in the country ….. On the other hand dear TISCO does not seem to have been vested with enough professional clout or technical vim and vigour to be able to limit the influx of foreign consultants into the country or to keep the clamour for foreign consultancy under control …. the original legislation .. . created TISCO mainly to slash our overdependence on foreign expertise in the running of our (wobbling) economy …. Yet our ‘banana republic’ coughs out nearly 300 million yankee dollars a year paying for consultancy services … a good chunk of our export earnings’.

The Managing Director of M/S Iramba Management and Industrial Services Ltd. Dar es Salaam, Hr Lawrence Mmasi, recently made scathing attack on government leaders’ neglect and/or failure to give sufficient support to the local consultancy industry. “It is a betrayal of the taxpayer’s interests to throw overboard local people trained at such a high cost” he said. “Consultancy has not been seen as an important productive or service sector. On the part of donors there is no serious goodwill to support local consultancy”.

Sisal production by Tanzania has dropped significantly since the 1960’s and has stabilised over the last five years at approximately 30,000 tonnes of line fibre per annum. In 1989 approximately one third came from public sector estates of the Tanzania Sisal Authority (TSA) and the remaining two thirds from privately owned estates. Recently, obvious signs of a move towards increased demand have encouraged new investment in the industry and, with it, technical changes.

TECHNICAL CHANGES
Sisal has been processed traditionally by large stationery decorticators with effluent being removed by water pumped to the factories to wash the fibre. Transport costs for the collection of leaf have always been high in relation to the amount of sisal fibre extracted (about 4% dry fibre/leaf) and, in consequence, any way of reducing transport costs has been of interest to growers. During the 1970’s experimental work was carried out to develop a ‘mobile decorticator’ capable of radically reducing transport costs. Early machines were initially developed and constructed in Kenya by Mr Evan Spyropoulos. They met with a mixed and guarded reception mainly because of doubts about their reliability, their productivity and the quality of the fibre produced.

In the mid-eighties Spyropoulos entered into a partnership with Michael Dobell, a UK based entrepreneur, and, eventually, production moved from Mombasa to Chard in Somerset and the machine received a brand name – the ‘Crane’ mobile decorticator. The machine now offers sisal growers in Tanzania and elsewhere a cost effective alternative to the hauling of thousands of tonnes of leaf to machines designed, and often built, before the Second World War. The TSA has already invested in a number of the units which are driven by a 100-120 bhp tractor. They are operating with some success in the Central Line production area around Morogoro. Other sisal growers in Kenya and Tanzania are becoming increasingly interested in seeing how effective they will prove to be in the long term.

An alternative invention developed by Ralli Estates, a joint venture between the TSA and the UK’s ‘Chillington Corporation’, has been the utilisation of weight transfer hitches and large trailer units for leaf transport to traditional decorticator units. These have replaced the 6-7 tonne capacity lorry units on estates where no railway systems exist so that 95 bhp tractors can now be seen successfully hauling loads of 15-18 tonnes with little difficulty. Ralli Estates has also undertaken significant modifications to ‘Stork 20-12′ 8nd ’20-10’ decorticator units which they hope can significantly increase production efficiencies.

NEW INVESTMENTS FROM NON-TRADITIONAL SOURCES
The recent improvement in the price of sisal, as the green movement encourages greater use of organic hard fibres, has brought about a significant change in mood in the Tanzanian industry, aided by a number of devaluations of the Tanzania Shilling and a liberalisation of marketing regulations for sisal. The result has been increasing new investment in the industry from non-traditiona1 sources. Examples include the purchase of a number of estates by Tan Farms owned by the Chavda Group, the Ralli Estates investment by Chillington Corporation and the recently started Ngomezi project on TSA estates near Korogwe, funded by the German Government and managed by the British firm Booker Tate.

On the processing front the TSA has negotiated funding from Italy to rehabilitate machinery at their Ngomeni factory and hopes to see the Mruazi factory between Muheza and Korogwe reopened in due course.

All the spinners are short of fibre in all grades and there is an expectant atmosphere pervading the industry with hopes that production can rise to meet the demand that already exists. Processing capacity, once the Ngomeni factory has been refurbished, will total more than double the existing total production of fibre nation wide. Providing the market remains strong there seems little doubt that local processors will be keen to add value to all available production.

The prospects for sisal therefore look much better than they did a decade ago and one would hope that growers fibre could soon resume its place as the ‘White Gold’ of Tanzania.
Steve Vaux

Mr S.G.M. VAUX is an agriculturalist with Booker Tate. He is working as a Project Controller whose main responsibility is co-ordination of the five and a half year Ngombezl Sisal Estate Project near Korogwe.

In the June session of Parliament a Bill was enacted under the title: National Investment (Promotion and Protection) Act 1990. The purpose was to stimulate local and foreign investment by setting up an Investment Promotion Centre and establishing the rules governing investment in Tanzanian enterprises, particularly of foreign capital. The Act applies throughout industry, except petroleum and minerals, to which existing legislation applies. While it replaces the Foreign Investments (Protection) Act 1963 it incorporates, with necessary amendments, a number of other statutes, including the Companies (Regulation of Dividends and Surpluses and Miscellaneous Provisions) Act 1972. (Footnote – A useful account of the state regulation of foreign investment between 1961 and 1985 is given in an article by S. Rugumamu in Africa Development, VOL XIII, No 4, 1988. The new Act aims at avoiding the gross economic errors and mismanagement that have blemished so many parastatal enterprises financed from abroad by means of a monitoring mechanism with statutory powers of control. The Act is based on a coherent policy with regard to overseas investment, the 8srlier absence of which forms a central theme in Mr. Rugumamu’s article.)

The underlying purpose of the legislation is twofold. First, it establishes machinery for the stimulation of investment in Tanzanian industry and offers tax incentives for investment in new enterprises and the expansion or rehabilitation of existing enterprises. Secondly, it lays down rules to ensure that new investment, particularly from overseas, does not lead to abuses and is directed towards enterprises of greatest importance to the Tanzanian economy without creating new burdens only capable of satisfaction in foreign exchange.

The first of these objectives arises from a recognition that an attempt must be made to attract foreign capital if the pace of economic development is to be maintained. Despite attempts to stimulate domestic saving by a new government bond issue and maintaining interest rates at levels comparable with the rate of inflation, local resources alone will be inadequate to sustain economic development at more than a very slow pace. The appointment of Mr George Kahama as Director General of the new Investment Promotion Centre is intended to make use of his earlier experience as General Manager of the National Development Corporation, a holding company for the financing of Tanzania’s growing industrial base in the sixties and seventies, The establishment of the Centre will attract the approval of the World Bank and bilateral aid donors.

Tanzania has, however, learned the hard way how counter productive foreign investment can be. First, there is the danger of transnational corporations, having invested in Tanzania, exporting products at artificially low prices in order to gain a cost benefit elsewhere, a practice that would have the effect of forcing Tanzania to subsidise a foreign firm. Secondly, externally funded projects may be so designed as to rely heavily on imported raw materials and equipment, resulting in a net outflow of scarce foreign exchange. Thirdly, the technology chosen may be quite inappropriate to Tanzanian conditions and both expensive and difficult to maintain. There are examples of all these shortcomings in the earlier history of industrialisation in Tanzania. It was therefore essential to impose on the Director General a duty to satisfy himself that a proposal will a) maximise foreign exchange earnings and savings, b) enhance import substitution, c) expand food production, d) increase employment opportunities and enhance human resource development , e) conduce to the efficient use of productive capacity of existing enterprises and f) improve linkages between different sections of the economy. The Director General will also have to consider other matters such as the source of raw materials, employment conditions, siting, the financing plan and ‘the need to generate constructive competition among enterprises’.

These enquiries may seem onerous and could lead to bureaucratic delays. To minimise this risk the Act requires Ministries, to which aspects of a proposal are referred, to reply within 14 days and enjoins on the Centre to give its final decision within 60 days. It remains to be seen whether such time limits will be reasonable in practice or will lead to slipshod decisions. A great deal depends on the willingness of the promoters to provide reliable information without delay which they are bound under the Act to submit. If an affirmative conclusion is reached a Certificate of Approval is issued. The Certificate may be amended or transferred with the approval of the Centre. Where its terms are not adhered to, or in the event of fraud, a Certificate may be cancelled in which case the Centre may withdraw any rights and benefits and, if necessary, require the promoter to sell the enterprise.

INCENTIVES
As an incentive to investors The Act provides for a tax holiday of five years with respect to the taxation of profits and the witholding tax on dividends. Thereafter the normal rates of tax will apply to profits, namely, 50% for non-resident investors, 45% for residents and 22.5% for investors in cooperative societies; witholding tax on dividends – 10% for non- residents and 5% for residents.

Import duties and soles taxes on equipment, machinery, spare parts and materials to be used solely for the purposes of the enterprise are remitted. An enterprise may be allowed to retain in a foreign exchange account a proportion of its earnings abroad and up to 50% of such holdings may be used for the servicing of debts, the payment of dividends and the satisfaction of other external obligations. The apparent effect of this provision is to limit the proportion of foreign exchange earnings available for payments abroad to less than 50%, though the actual proportion is not defined.

RESTRICTIONS
The Act empowers the enterprise to pay dividends and profits to foreign investors in the approved foreign currency at the prevailing rate of exchange; to transfer abroad an approved proportion of the proceeds of sale of the enterprise; and to provide for the servicing or repayment of any foreign loan specified in the Certificate of Approval. Whether these provisions override the 50% limit referred to in the final sentence of the last paragraph could be a matter for legal debate. The payment of dividends is, however, limited by the terms of the Companies (Regulation of Dividends and Surpluses and Miscellaneous Provisions) Act 1972 to the average of profits made in the last three years, or 80~ of the profits arising in the previous year, or such sum as will reduce the net worth of the enterprise as disclosed in the balance sheet to not less than 125% of the par value of the paid-up capital. The Minister has the power, subject to prior approval by the National Assembly, to authorise an enterprise to pay dividends at a higher rate, but this provision is unlikely to be used except in exceptional circumstances.

The trouble with these provisions is the extent to which they rely on permissive powers to be exercised by the Bank of Tanzania, or presumably by the Centre. In order to remove the anxieties of investors it may be necessary to spell out in regulations made under the Act the precise meaning to be attached to such phrases as ‘A portion of their foreign exchange earnings’ or ‘an approved proportion of the net proceeds of sale’. The word ‘approved’ also requires definition. As it stands the Act appears to favour projects involving only a limited foreign exchange commitment for operational purposes and to operate against entirely foreign-owned enterprises, which would be unable to recover in foreign currency more than a proportion of the proceeds of sale in the event of withdrawal. These may be justifiable acts of policy, but it may be necessary to delineate the borderline more clearly if foreign capital is to be attracted.

An approved enterprise cannot be compulsorily acquired except in the national interest and after due process of law, in which case, full, fair and prompt compensation must be paid in transferable currency.

The Act lists in a schedule three types of enterprise. Part A refers to areas of priority for private investment. Part B enumerates the areas reserved for public sector enterprises, except where the Minister grants a special license. In Part C appear those enterprises reserved for investment exclusively by Tanzanian nationals and those that are closed to foreigners investing less than $250.000. By far the most comprehensive list appears in Part A.

This legislation is essentially experimental. Many developing countries, not forgetting Eastern Europe, are competing for investment capital and it is not known whether investors will be attracted by the prospects offered by Tanzania. Decisions about investment also take into account circumstances other than those covered by legislation, such as the country’s political stability, the climate, the availability of staff housing and the personal taxation of expatriate staff. So, only the future will show whether these investment provisions will have the intended results.
J Roger Carter

THE BUDGET – AND THE DEBT PROBLEM
The main headline in the Daily News on June 8, 1990, which covered the 1990/91 Budget read ‘TAXES DOWN’. Taxation on salary income was reduced from between 10% and 50% to between 7.5% and 40% minimum taxable income moved up from Shs 1,900 to Shs 2,250 (the current exchange rate is about Shs 330 to £1); the minimum wage was raised by Shs 425 to Shs 2,500; the maximum salary for executives in the super scale category was raised to Shs 22,930 per month.

And so there was some reason for satisfaction amongst taxpayers. People had expected something worse.

But the new Minister- for Finance, Mr Stephen Kibona, made many other changes in his budget designed to create new sources of government revenue, ease tax collection and entice people to use bank accounts and save or invest in the economy. The Bulletin has space for only a summary of the many changes made.

The Minister began his speech with good news on the economic recovery programmes. The increase in production in key sectors of the economy which had been recorded since 1986 had been maintained in 1989 and consumer goods were still available throughout the country. The GDP had grown by 3.9% in 1987, 4.1% in 1988 and was projected to grow by 4.4% in 1989. This compared with an average GDP growth of 1.5% in the years preceding the economic recovery programme.

But, the Minister said, the objective of improving foreign exchange earnings had not made significant headway and the goal of providing drugs and medicines for hospitals and dispensaries, education and water for the people had been only partially achieved. Major problems existed in crop processing and transportation and in management in the cooperative unions and parastatals; there was a lack of accountability and a need to reduce red tape.

THE EXTENT OF TANZANIA’S DEBT
Mr Kibona went on to say that Tanzania had continued to experience serious problems in servicing external debt. Roger Carter has been looking into this problem in some detail and reports that, while Brazi1’s and Mexico’s debts are from private sources, over 931% of Tanzania’s foreign debts are of official origin ie: from governments or inter-governmental bodies. In 1988 Tanzania’s long-term debt amounted to US$ 4,091 million and by December 1989, according to the budget speech, had reached US$ 5,090 million. In 1988 earnings from exports and services were barely a third of the cost of imports and, of those earnings, near1y 18% was paid out for interest and repayments. In 1970 the debt burden had amounted to 20% of the GDP. But by 1988 it had reached 165% or the equivalent of the total wealth created over a period of almost 20 months.

The Minister stated that negotiations with creditor countries to reschedule or cancel debt obligations had proved very useful. Debt amounting to US$ 51 million had been cancelled and US$1,102 million had been rescheduled during the First Economic Recovery Programme (1986/89). During the Second Phase of Economic recovery (1989/92) some US$ 175 million had been cancelled and US$ 270 million was being rescheduled. As Roger Carter points out, Britain and the Scandinavian countries have been converting loans into grants for some years. Multilateral debts, which account for 35% of total long-term debt, consist mainly of World Bank loans incurred in the optimistic late sixties, they carry interest charges of around 8%; IDA (an affiliate of the World Bank) credits charge no interest and there 1s a grace period for repayments of ten years. A scheme has now been evolved for the use of IDA credits for the repayment of capital to the World Bank and in the financial years 1988/89 to 1990/91 about US$ 48 million of IDA money was made available. This met about 70% of the capital repayments due to the Bank during that period. Sweden and Norway have granted US$ 33 million since April 1989 towards the interest element in World Bank debt servicing.

Nevertheless, Tanzania’s debt burden seems likely to increase. Grace periods for IDA repayments will end and completion of earlier repayments for IDA credits still lies some years ahead. On the other hand, repayment of Bank loans will be completed in the next few years. On balance, the servicing of multilateral debts is expected to grow only slightly. Bilateral and private debt servicing however, is expected to increase by something like 35% between 1990 and 1993, yielding by 1993 a total obligation of some US$ 585 million, a figure in excess of Tanzania’s total current export earnings.

OTHER BUDGET HIGHLIGHTS
– to encourage the use of sources of energy other than firewood and charcoal, taxes on electric and kerosene cookers and solar heaters abolished;
– the obligation for visitors to change US$ 50 at airports abolished;
– road tolls abolished except at border posts; extra Shs 2.0 per litre on petrol and diesel;
– customs duty highest rate down from 100% to 60%;
– no change on beer, spirits, soft drinks, cigarettes, sugar;
– to encourage people to use banks, minimum taxable bank interest income raised from Shs 20,000 to Shs 250,000 per year;
– airport service charge for residents increased from Shs 500 to Shs 800; no change for visitors (US$ 20); vehicle registration up from Shs 2,000 to Shs 8,000;
– a new ‘instant’ lottery introduced.

INFLATION
The Minister of State (Planning), Prof Kighoma Malima, told the National Assembly on Budget Day that the rate of price increases for most consumer goods was slowing down. For most towns it was 23.8% in 1989. This meant that the inflation rate had slowed down by 4.5% compared with 1988 and was now the lowest since 1980. However, the rate was above the Economic Recovery target; it had been hoped that the rate of inflation would have been reduced to less than 10% by 1989.

CDC PLANS BIG INVESTMENTS
The Commonwealth Development Corporation (CDC) plans to invest in joint ventures in Tanzania in 1990 in such sectors as agriculture, forestry and tourism according to the CDC Representative in Dar es Salaan The Corporation intended to provide US$ 50 million to rehabilitate the Kagera sugar factory. £ 8.5 million to rehabilitate the coffee industry in the Kilimanjaro and Arusha regions and probably, depending on the result of studies underway, further funds would be made available for tea plantations in Njombe, the improvement of the Kilimanjaro Hotel, and in wildlife lodges in the northern tourist circuit – Daily News

INVESTMENT CODE READY
Tanzania’s new Investment Code drawn up by the government has finally been agreed after amendments insisted on by the CCM Party designed to stress the motivation of Tanzanians to invest in their own country.

At the beginning of April the Investment Code was brought before Parliament under a Bill entitled the National Investment Promotion and Protection Bill. In the debate there were demands for more definitive laws to protect local entrepreneurs from ‘the jaws of international capitalism’, clearer definition of customs policies and land ownership, guarantees on transfer of technology, a removal of red tape, more explanation of what joint ventures meant to Tanzanians and more progress in demarcating village boundaries ‘to protect them from the risk of losing their land to foreign investors’. The Minister for Industries and Trade, Mr Cleopa Msuya said that Tanzanians should change their attitude towards work, raise their productivity and assure foreign investors that they would get their money back. The Bill was subsequently passed unanimously – Daily News.

MORE BRITISH AID
Britain has announced an additional £2.5 million assistance to Tanzania’s Economic Recovery programme. The announcement was made by Mrs Lynda Chalker, Minister for Overseas Development during a dinner on March 5th 1990 hosted by Tanzania’s former Minister of Finance, Mr Cleopa Msuya. The sum is additional to the £15 million pledged by Britain during the consultative group meeting in Paris in December last year. The visiting Minister commended efforts being made by the Tanzanian Government towards economic recovery and pointed to the increase in agricultural and industrial output which had been achieved. The £2.5 million would be used for provision of human drugs and buses for urban transport and was in response to an urgent request from the government.

Mrs Chalker visited the Mnazi Mmoja Hospital, the Malawi dry cargo facilities at the Dar es Salaam port and the Kisimbani Clove research Station in Zanzibar.