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THE ZANZIBAR RED COLOBUS MONKEY

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Mrs F.A. Mturi, a lecturer in the Department of Zoology and Marine Biology at the University of Dar es Salaam was in London recently and described the work she is doing (towards a Phd at Cambridge University) on the feeding behaviour and ecology of the Zanzibar red colobus monkey. This is a sub-species which is endemic in Zanzibar and nowhere else. The monkey is a highly selective feeder on certain fruits, leaves and stems found in the forest. But as the forest is being encroached upon by farmers the monkey is in danger of dying out. There are only some 600 left.

The Forest Department is trying to preserve them by moving some of them to the forest reserves (Jendele, Kichwele and Masingini) and some have been moved to Pemba. With the destruction of other habitats the monkeys are often driven to raiding crops. Although they are protected farmers are often forced to kill them. Mrs Mturi feels that the Josani forest should be turned into a National Park and that other forests should be surrounded by a buffer zone in which harvesting of forest products could be controlled. – Editor

SCHOOL CURRICULA – TO DIVERSIFY OR NOT TO DIVERSIFY

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The problem with schools in many developing countries – or so most people thought in the 1960s and 1970s – was that their curricula were not relevant. Wordsworth did not speak to village life in Tanzania. So, education in many developing countries rushed to combine prevocational courses with academic secondary school curricula to make school more relevant to work and national development goals. Such an approach seemed implicit in Tanzania’s Education for Self Reliance. Yet whether diversification was doing what it was supposed to do – broaden access to secondary schooling, hone students cognitive skills, and give graduates a head start in the job market – remained uncertain until World Rank researchers and consultants carried out studies in Colombia and Tanzania using data for 1978-82.

Dr. George Psacharopoulos subsequently wrote an article on the results of this work which Professor Honeybone bas kindly reviewed for us. An expanded paper was subsequently published as a book “Diversified Secondary Education and Development.”

When I wet Dr Psacharopoulos (who for eleven years taught at the London School of Economics) in Washington recently, be told me that he expects to publish another paper shortly (in the International Journal of Education and Development, University of Birmingham) on another subject of interest to Tanzania – a comparison of the quality of public and private schools. He indicated that, on the basis of his research, private schools tended to he better on general subjects, language and mathematics, but public schools tended to be better in technical and commercial subjects. Private schools, being cheaper to run, tended to give a defined amount of knowledge at lower cost than public schools.

Dr Kenneth King of the University of Edinburgh in a paper he prepared for the recent conference “Tanzania After Nyerere” went beyond Psacharopoolos’s work and wrote of two different traditions of diversification running side-by-side in Tanzania, one of these had usually underlined the importance of orientation to work and the educational value of industrial and agricultural work; the other was explicitly concerned with production and the need for students to experience real work. Unfortunately space does not allow us to develop further this fascinating interplay of these two different traditions of diversification. Perhaps it will be possible in the next issue of the Bulletin. In this issue we start with Professor Honeybone’s review of the original article. – Editor.

Curriculum Diversification in Colombia and Tanzania: An Evaluation by George Psacharopoulos

This article published in the Comparative Education Review (Vol 29 No 4 November l985) questions the assumptions on which the Tanzanian secondary school curriculum is based. A diversified curriculum is defined as one which includes pre-vocational elements as well as the more traditional subjects. The author, George Psacharopoulos, of the Education Department of the World Bank, recognises the different cultural, politica1 and economic backgrounds of Colombia and Tanzania and has not chosen them for direct comparative purposes. But because both countries have adopted a policy of diversification, albeit for different reasons, he uses them as the basis for an empirical investigation into his central question of whether “the outcomes of diversified education vary substantially from those of conventional secondary schooling.”

This article is a summary of the book referred to above. It is a contribution to the educational literature on what has become known unfortunately as “the vocaticsna2 school fallacy”. I write “unfortunately” as such a name suggests a built in bias against a diversified curriculum, a bias attributed by educationalists to economists who seek to evaluate a secondary school curriculum mainly on a “rate of return” basis. This is not an arid academic debate. The cost of education is obviously a very important factor in limiting the scope of education particularly in the poorer countries of the Third World. But educationalists would agree that cognitive achievement and degree of success in reaching the social and political objectives are also very important factors.

The author recognises these differences of emphasis in Tanzania and writes: “The main impetus for diversification stems from a strong sense of commitment to the ideals of work education…… Because of Tanzania’s philosophy of self reliance, students are required to gain experience in practical subjects in addition to academic pursuits by ‘majoring’ in vocational subjects.” It could be argued that he ought to have organised his investigation to discover how far secondary education has been successful in achieving “the commitment to the ideals of work education.” In fact, he identifies two “dependent variables” (a) what is learned in school and (b) what is later accomplished in post-secondary economic and further education activities,” and virtually ignores the significance of governmental policy.

Although the article is a summary of a book, it is clear that it is a very careful and well organised investigation; and the reputation of the author should guarantee that details of the questionnaires and the statistical analysis (which are not included) are of the highest order. So the conclusions which emerge from his investigation should provide useful empirical evidence for educational planners. The results from the Tanzanian pupils in the cognitive tests applied in the fourth year of secondary schooling show that in the pre-vocational subjects (agriculture, technical, and commercial) the scores in the diversified schools were only slightly higher than in the traditional schools. One would have expected them to have been markedly higher. But, surprisingly, the diversified schools were also slightly higher in mathematics. In the English tests the traditional schools were considerably higher than the diversified schools. In other words, the investigation shows that in most of the achievement tests, the Tanzanian diversified curriculum is slightly superior to the academic curriculum. This is a result which will not surprise the educationalists who have argued that pre-vocational subjects, if properly taught, can be as intellectually demanding as the more traditional (or academic) subjects; and many would carry this line of reasoning further by supporting a diversified curriculum (i.e a balanced mix of the pre-vocational and academic subjects) on the grounds that a higher proportion of the content would be more directly associated with everyday life than the traditional curriculum. The results from the Colombian schools show a superiority of the prevocational pupils (industrial, commercial, and social science) over the academic pupils in the academic as well as the pre-vocational tests. In agriculture there was no significant difference. The author sums this up as, “This implies that industrial learning was not acquired at the sacrifice of academic learning.” A biased summary? Perhaps a more accurate conclusion would be “The achievement tests show that in general the pupils from the diversified curriculum schools scored higher marks than those in the traditional (academic) schools.”

However, the main criterion from an economist’s point of view is the unit recurrent cost of secondary education. This article shows clearly that the “diversified curriculum” schools in Tanzania are more expensive to run than the “traditional” schools, and, rather less clearly, that the ‘social rate of return” is higher for the pupils from the traditional schools.

Finally the author offers some “considerations that the policymaker could confidently take into account when designing a secondary school system in developing countries.”

– Diversified curricula are more difficult to implement owing to the need for new teaching equipment and for teachers with new qualifications.
– Diversified schools are more expensive to run.
– Pupils from diversified schools are just as likely to want to proceed to university studies (and sometimes to specialised academic studies) as those from the academic schools.
– These is no evidence that a diversified curriculum improves the fit between the school and the rest of the world of work.
– Diversified curricula should not be offered by countries which provide secondary education to only a small section of the appropriate age range.

The author justifies this last statement as follows: “In this case the expansion of any type of secondary schooling will be legitimately seen by students and their families as opening the door to improved mobility, including university entrance or a start in a non-manual occupation (such as teaching). But such expansion could have been achieved by less costly means and also would not predicate the outcome of the reform,”

One wonders how the education planners in Tanzania would react to the author’s use of the word “legitimately” and how they would balance their “strong sense of commitment to the ideals of work education” with the evidence of higher costs. The author unfortunately does not deal with this aspect although it is basic to Tanzanian policy. A pity!

Professor R. C. Honeybone

THE ARUSHA DECLARATION – 20 YEARS AFTER

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Just before going to press we Beard from Professor Terence Ranger, the first editor of this Bulletin, about his visit, towards the end of December 1986, to what he described as the cheerful Christmas bustle of Arusha (with abundant supplies in the shops) to attend a four day international conference on “The Arusha Declaration”, 20 years after its publication. Professor Ranger said that he was deeply impressed by the diversity of views expressed (there were 45 papers), by the self confidence of the Tanzanian University staff, from many different departments, and the libertarian commitment of most of the papers. He wondered whether such a conference could take place in other African countries.

The conference had been opened by President Mwinyi and closed by Vice-President Wakil and attended by representatives from Britain, Scandinavia, The Soviet Union, Yugoslavia, China and other countries. There was much discussion on the crisis in agriculture and most papers had agreed that this was due to internal rather than external causes. Some participants had felt that the crisis had a risen because the Arusha Declaration had not been effectively carried through; others had felt that the Declaration was a flawed document. Professor Ranger said that everybody had been critical of the use of force in villagisation and what was described as the “commandism” of the Government in relation to peasant producers. Peasants had deliberately resisted this “commandism” There was a call for greater autonomy of peasant organisations and better incentives. What had been basically wrong was weak and corrupt party management. – Editor

MISCELLANY

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THE NILE PERCH
The Mwanza-based Fisheries Research Centre has begun preliminary studies on the Nile perch, a predator fish credited with the depletion of a number of species in Lake Victoria. The Director General of the Tanzania Fisheries Research Institute (TAFIRI), Professor Philip Dathondi announced recently that 200 Nile – perches had been tagged and released into the Mwanza Gulf. He said over 5000 others were expected to be released into the lake during the study, which is being conducted by Tanzanian and Dutch researchers. Profesor Bathondi assured fishermen and people living in the Lake Zone not to be scared if they caught the tagged fish because they were harmless and fit for human consumption. He appealed to them to return the tags to the Mwanza Fisheries Research Centre or hand them over to fisheries officers in their areas.
The Nile-perch was transplanted into Lake Victoria waters in Uganda in the 1950s, but by the 1960s it had already spread to Kenya waters reaching the Tanzania side in the late 1970s Daily News

IDENTITY CARDS
A Bill providing for the registration and identification of persons resident in Tanzania was passed by the National Assembly recently but only after amendment. The Bill tabled in the House by the Deputy Minister for Home Affairs, Ndugu Hamad Rashid Mohamed, provides for all residents in Tanzania to be identified. Members of Parliament who opposed the move had urged that if the Bill was passed, it would be misused by some officers. Winding up the debate, Ndugu Hamad allayed the MP’s fears, saying the enforcement of the law would not infringe on the peoples’ right of free movement. He said the Bill was intended to give citizens due recognition and rights. “Presently, non-citizens are enjoying equal rights with Tanzanians,” he explained.
The Minister said the Government had accepted MP’s recommendations and amended the Bill. One of the sections amended had made it compulsory for every person to register and carry an identity card all the time. Following the amendment, the carrying of cards would now be voluntary. Another amended clause had sought to empower officials to make arrests without warrant. Now officials would have to have an arrest warrant.
The Speaker of the Rational Assembly, Chief Mkwawa, accepted a call by Ndugu Timonty Ndunguru (Mbinga), proposing that votes should be taken on the Bill’s acceptance by the house. A total of 141 members present; 82 were in favour of the Bill and 59 opposed to it. Most of the MP’s who had spoken against the Bill had wanted the Minister to do some homework and later tell the House how much money would be involved in the exercise. One MP had estimated that TShs580m would be needed to make the identity cards for the 20 million Tanzanians.
Another argued that the nation had spent millions of shillings on making identity cards for nguvu kazi, an exercise which he said had been a failure. He objected to the Bill because he said it would be another way of legalising misuse of funds.

REVIEWS

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WITCHCRAFT AND PSYCHOTHERAPY
When I was in Sri Lanka in November, I was very interested to learn the extent to which traditional medicine has been recognised for its contribution to society. There is a Minister of Indigenous Medicine in the Government and there are hospitals and clinics devoted to it. During the Parliamentary debate on the Minister’s budget in an otherwise deeply divided land, there seemed to be unanimity about the great value of indigenous medicine. Meanwhile in Tanzania, the Minister for Health and Social Welfare bas been underscoring the need to integrate traditional medicine into the national health care service. He was speaking at a seminar on traditional medicine in Arusha in October.
On my return to the UK my attention was drawn by my doctor brother to the following note in the British Medical Journal’s issue of 18th December 1986:
A patient brought up in a society in which medical care is provided by witchdoctors is likely to have a poor opinion of a Western physician who takes a long history. The witchdoctor “understands” and has no need to inquire – so to maintain plausibility his Western trained competitor must be intuitive and use his clinical experience to guess more than he bas been told. This and other insights come from a fascinating review from Tanzania (British Journal of Psychiatry), which emphasises that the psychiatrist must strive for empathy not just with the patient but also with his culture.
I asked Dr Marion Way if she could locate the article and review it for us. This is her review – Editor

J.S.Neki, B.Joinet, N.Ndosi, G.Kilonzo, G.J.Hauli, and G.Duvinage, “Witchcraft and Psychotherapy”, BRITISH JOURNAL OF PSYCHIATRY, August 1986 vol 149, pp 145-155.

This excellent review article describes the way in which witchcraft ideation serves a variety of social functions and is used in personal defence mechanisms. It is written by a multinational team of three Tanzanians and three expatriates (Indian, German, and French).

Witchcraft (ulozi) is defined as “mystical and innate power which is used by its possessor to harm people” and distinguished from sorcery (uchawi), defined as “evil magic against others employing herbs, medicines, charms etc.” (p. 145), although the two terms are frequently interchanged. The widely held belief in witchcraft by people of all educational backgrounds is explained as follows: ‘Witchcraft is a theory of causation: it does not deny natural or empirical causes, but seeks supernatural ones behind them. Two questions can be asked in the context of every misfortune: “how” did it happen?, and “why” did it occur at all? The ‘how’ is answered by empirical observation; the ‘why’, inter alia, by witchcraft. Even if our scientific understanding of the ‘how’ increases, it will still not be able to dispose of the ‘why’ of a misfortune. Hence the two beliefs may easily co-exist.”

Witchcraft thrives in a closed system of relationships and group values. It explains evil as coming through the malign influence of deviant or alien persons who my or my not be exercising their power voluntarily and who may not even be aware of it, as for instance if it is exercised in sleep. Witchdoctors are considered to be those with similar powers who use them to divine the source of evil and suggest remedies. Divination is used at times of disaster. Witchcraft has many sociodynamic uses: it prevents members of its community from transgressing the moral code; feigned or imputed witchcraft is used as a means of distancing unwanted social contacts: the witch is used as a scapegoat, and an outlet for repressed aggression; the witch acts as a buffer against social sanction.

Psychodynamic “uses” of witchcraft are mentioned: for example, as an explanation of weakness or failure, taking away responsibility so that feelings of guilt are unnecessary. Distrust and jealousy may be institutionalised through witchcraft, particularly where there is malice within the family. Probably the most controversial statement of the paper is that the super-ego or conscience is externalised into witchcraft so that guilt and sin are not inherently African concepts; shame occurs only after discovery, and witchcraft explains happenings, excusing all.

As witchcraft is a universally accepted idea in Africa, it inevitably becomes a significant factor in psychotherapy, and the therapist is liable to be categorised as a witchdoctor. All misfortunes may be attributed to witchcraft, but it is particularly likely in emotional problems with a sexual or sensory component. If witchcraft is presumed, there will be intense anxiety and foreboding. This fear may become so malignant as to lead to death.

In Psychiatry, witchcraft as part of a delusional system in psychotic illness has to be distinguished from the beliefs inherent in the prevailing culture. Delusions are less frightening, not shared by the family, not altered by traditional divination or corrective measures. They are accompanied by withdrawal and loss of contact with reality. In psychosis, witchcraft can be likened to a delusional belief in the power of electricity or radio waves.

Much of the advice given in the paper is common to all psychotherapy, e.g. a special strategy so as not to impose too close a proximity too quickly, advice on how to avoid confrontation with different traditions and belief; exercises to build up the patient’s confidence that he has some control over his own destiny; mirroring back thoughts and making a patient feel needed and useful; family therapy, relaxation therapy, role playing, modelling and dream interpretation: loss of face must be avoided at all costs and the patient’s autonomy has to be balanced with the group’s solidarity.

A short review cannot do justice to such an interesting paper which is relevant to all those in a counselling role. It stresses the need for understanding without which a therapist’s skills would be useless. Cultural empathy can only be gained by sharing life experiences on informal as well as formal occasions. It has been well researched and has 38 references from a wide range of disciplines, including Anthropology, Psychology and Psychiatry.
Dr. Marion Way

THE MAASAI
Saitoti , Tepilit Ole. THE WORLDS OF A MAASAI WARRIOR: AN AUTOBIOGRAPHY. 1986. London: Andre Deutsch.

This work is a moving account of a Maasai whose life has been shaped by three chance events: his father’s decision to select him from among his large family to attend school; his appointment as park guide in Serengeti, giving him the opportunity of making friends among a variety of tourists; and his selection for the title role in the television film “Man of the Serengeti”, leading him to America and further education, which had eluded him in Tanzania. The narrative is shaped, however, by the author’s determination to pursue his opportunities at each stage. It is his ability to adapt himself to western culture that marks him out from most other Maasai who have attended school. They tend to be drawn back to their families and herds, whereas he utilised the responsibility and discipline instilled as a herdboy to apply himself towards an American degree in creative writing, having leapfrogged secondary schooling. His experiences have enabled him to translate an endearing aspect of Maasai culture for non- Maasai audiences. This is their panache for portraying encounters with the world and their inner feelings in evocative terms.

It is a brief but powerful story. The author has the facility of projecting his close identification with his family and culture by constant comparison and simile. He conveys his spontaneous wonder at the world as it opens up to him, in his childhood during the first stage of the book, and then on the path to success. His impressions of western society as a Maasai voyeur constantly recreates childhood images of the herds, the game, and the colour of Serengeti that seems to accompany him wherever he goes.

The author parades his growing worldliness and his catalogue of sexual conquests as might any Maasai. It is as though writing this work is for him what creating songs are for those who remain as warriors among the Maasai, and to this extent the title of the work is a pt. Yet the emotional highlights – the warm hugs and embraces – are not with any of his girlfriends, but with his brothers and sister sat each homecoming. The Maasai idiom keeps reflecting a homesickness that wells to the surface from time to time. The theme that threads through this narrative is not an account of warriorhood or age systems so often described for the Maasai, or even of the predicamnt faced by the Maasai in modern times. The compelling narrative is not really an account of the two worlds of a Maasai warrior, but of a developing relationship between a close family of brothers and sisters dominated by their father, who becomes increasingly difficult as he ages and yet retains a striking degree of affection among his children mixed with their fear. He is the central character who looms over the work, raining blows on his younger sons for any lapse in herding, and suspected of cursing an adult son to death for his attempt to assert some independence.

It is in this setting that the death of the author’s mother early in the work and of the older brother towards the end draw the family together and draw the author back from America and from his doubts concerning his identity as a cultural half breed. At intervals throughout the book one sees the development of the family as it grows and as rivalries develop between huts, and between generations. Apart from the father, it is the character sketch of the family as a whole rather than of individuals that provides the thread of continuity. Their slender mortality as individuals is offset by their loyalty to the persistence of the family itself. It is a family familiar to those who have seen “Man of the Serengeti” or Carol Beckwith’s collection of photographs in “Maasai” (1980) with which the author collaborated, and some of these photographs are reproduced here.

The author returns home and the narrative ends where perhaps the world of new experience ends. He has encountered six years among the most powerful nation on Earth, riven with racial disharmony. What else is there to wonder at? Has he exhausted his repertoire for further works? or how will he develop this facility Re has for bridging his own culture?

Maasai warriorhood is impelled with ideals that are corrupted in middle age as family responsibilities and possessions grow. The final scene is of a quarrel with a surviving brother over the management of their branch of the family. It suggests the onset of life after warriorhood. The telling portrait will be one of the author in middle age (perhaps by one of his sons). It is such a work that will demonstrate finally whether he has remained a man of Serengeti and become a patriarch in his turn, or has fallen between two cultures after all.
Paul Spencer

COMMERCIALISATION OF MAASAI CATTLE
The Dally News recently published an item on the commercialisation of Maasai cattle. It wrote that at the 13th Scientific Conference of the Tanzania Society of Animal Production held in Arusha in November 1986 Mr George G. Hadjivayanis, an agricultural extension expert, had revealed fhe results of a study he had done in Morogoro region. “Commercialisation of cattle raised by the Maasai herdsmen is a serious threat to the tribe’s livestock economy and stability” he said. “The growth of the beef market in Tanzania is rapidly expanding and has the capacity to consume the whole Maasai flock in a brief period.” He said he found the problem of the Maasai livestock economy to be its lack of integration with the beef market and its simple herding “which has become obsolete”. Nowadays be said the Maasai herdsmen preferred to live in illusion and not to accept the reality of the fate converging on their nomadism. “Liquor has become the opium that gives the Maasai herdsmen the false confidence of their miseries” he added. Explaining the consumption patterns of the Maasai, he said the cultural aloofness of the Maasai nomads was a thing of the past and that they had developed a taste for western consumer items. “The Maasai consume the most fashionable items (such as) sunglasses, electronic watches, radios, bicycles, American caps, latest fashion shoes and all the paraphernalia of western decadence”, he added. – Editor


AFRICAN INDUSTRIALISATION
C. E. Barker, M. R. Bhagavan, P. V. Mitschke-Collende and B. V. Wield, AFRICAN INDUSTRIALISATIOB: TECHNOLOGY AND CHANGE IN TABZANIA. Gower, 1986,

Very little high quality analytical work has been published in recent years on sub-Saharan economic development in general and industrialisation in particular. Sub-Saharan Africa is the least industrialised of the less developed regions of the world and only a handful of countries have the beginnings of a modern manufacturing sector – Nigeria, Zimbabwe, Ivory Coast, Kenya and Cameroon. The authors of this study of Tanzanian industrialisation have differing disciplinary backgrounds and attempt jointly to develop a marxist political economy of the industrialisation process, arguing that “the particular form which industrial development takes in any country – and its dynamic role within the political economy of that country – is determined by a complex set of variables. These variables and their interrelationship, can only be understood within a historical framework of class formation in the country in question and the relationship of class to the means of production at any point in time. (p.xi)

The authors reject the once fashionable underdevelopment/ dependency perspectives and present a fair and balanced critique of the work of the late Bill Warren. They nevertheless reject Warren’s notion of the widespread development of independent domestic capitalisms in the Third World (the only exception in their opinion being India) and instead argue, although on the basis of very limited evidence, that industrial growth and diversification are occurring within the framework of capitalist relations and forces of production which “are being consolidated under the overall control of foreign capital” (p. 23). Domestic bourgeoises, backed by massive state support, are however emerging and consolidating their position in a number of countries.
In Tanzania, the authors identify a ruling class still in the making which is weak both in terms of its economic base and its management and technical capabilities in production, but stronger in its administrative abilities and control over the state apparatus. The future of this class is uncertain, however, and the authors do not speculate as to its longer-term development.

Individual chapters discuss the historical evolution of Tanzanian industrialisation, the structure of industry, the process of capital accumulation and surplus appropriation and the transfer of technology and industrial skills. There is an excellent discussion of the “class character” of consumption and much evidence is presented on the indirect transfer abroad of surplus by foreign capital in the post 1967 period. The authors accuse the Tanzanian Government of implementing an industrialisation strategy that has concentrated on export-orientated industries, and intermediate goods production with a high import content supplying mainly luxury and export production. No attempt has been made to establish a capital goods sector and few inter-industry linkages have been developed The choice of technology since 1967 has been left to the multilateral corporations with a consequent neglect of indigenous technological development The state has deliberately counteracted the practice of workers’ control of industry.

This is an excellent study that will hopefully provoke much discussion. Inevitably there are criticisms that can be made of it – it would have been useful to locate the analysis of industrialisation within a wider discussion of the overall development record of the Tanzanian economy; the bibliography is perhaps too selective; there are a number of infelicities of style – but it repays careful reading and it is to be hoped that it marks the beginnings of a new era in the study of Third World Industrialisation in general and Sub-Saharan African industrialisation in particular.
Dr Frederick Nixson

LETTERS

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Having Just read the latest issue of the Bulletin I wanted to write back to say how much I enjoyed it. It has humour (vital!) and a great deal of background information which I find keeps me in touch with what is happening in Tanzania. I wonder if you can help me over one thing. A number of years ago I read the book “A Picnic on Mt Kenya” while climbing Mt Kilimanjaro. The changing bands of vegetation on Mt Kilimanjaro are very similar to Kenya and so the memory of my climb of Kilimanjaro stayed with me reinforced by the reading of the book. Unfortunately I no longer have the book. I know that it was written by an Italian because he describes his adventures as a POW escaping from the foot of Mt Kenya. He climbed the mountain having broken out of the camp and then gave himself up! I wonder whether you or any of your contributors would know the writers name and publisher7 Thanking you for any help that you can give,
J K Read 16,St Edmonds Rd, Ipswich

EDITORIAL

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“The most interesting period (in Tanzania) is starting now,” So said Mr Haroub Othman, Director of the Institute of Development Studies of Dar es Salaam University in almost the final words of a conference given at the School of Oriental & African Studies (SOAS) on June 26th and 27th 1986. I confess that my own view had been the opposite of this. I wondered how the international interest which has been for so long concentrated on the Tanzanian ship could survive the departure of its pilot.

There is of course a lot of debate as to who is now piloting the ship but if one is to judge by the number of headlines and photographs appearing in the Tanzanian press, the pilot is still aboard.

What will happen when he eventually disembarks, under the heading, in each case, “Tanzania after Nyerere”, has been the subject of a 25 page cover story in the May/June issue of “Africa Events” and also the conference referred to above which attracted the largest assembly of Tanzanophiles (almost 200 people) since Mwalimu’s last visit to the UK.

And then the “Tanganyika Reunion,” at its Jubilee event at the Royal Commonwealth Society on July 25th 1986, attracted almost 300 people including several Tanzanians. Participating in the cutting of the cake was Mr. Geoffrey Hucks, well known in Tanganyika many years ago as the person responsible for the conduct of the early elections.

Once again this has been an event packed four monthly period. After years of debate Tanzania finally decided to do a deal with the IMF, and this was followed in Paris in June 1986 by one of the best attended World Bank sponsored Consultative Group Meetings yet held. Then came a courageous and generally well received Budget. These matters are covered by Roger Carter in an article starting on page 3.

The Budget was followed by a month-long debate in the National Assembly in which members had no hesitation in expressing their views. See “Free Speech” on page 7.

Readers of the “Guardian” on June 11th 1986 must have been surprised to see the heading “Nyerere Doubts on the One Party System” which quoted Zambian newspapers as saying that Mwalimu had stated that “The single party system breeds complacency among the electorate and their elected representatives because there is an absence of political challenge to keep the leaders of the ruling party on their toes. Party leaders in some areas (of Tanzania) have become so complacent that they do not hold any meetings; others do not bother to hold elections to fill vacant party posts” . Roger Carter has written an article on the one-party system which begins on page 19.

On the lighter side, I understand that two intrepid Englishmen returned in July 1986 from a journey that they described as to “the centre of the Earth” – by bicycle! The centre was an unnamed spot in the Xinjiang province, N. W.China. They said that they found a few camel tracks, some bushes and a bit of dried camel dung. An earlier adventure was in Tanzania and they wrote a book about it which is reviewed by Martin Burton on page 25. A more serious review about the use of bicycles as transport in Tanzania is reviewed by Mel Crofton on page 26.

TANZANIA'S ECONOMIC RECOVERY PROGRAMME

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Tanzania’s most critical economic problem is the fact that foreign exchange income from the export of goods is less than one third of her minimum import requirements. As a result, imports have been ruthless1y cut back and part of the remainder has had to be financed by external grants and loans, which are increasingly difficult to negotiate. External debt amounts to 3.5 billion dollars, or nearly 70% of the gross domestic product. By March 1986 external payments arrears stood at 700 million dollars and total debt service obligations* were already the equivalent of about 60% of export earnings. This very grave situation was brought about by a combination of influences – the toll on foreign exchange reserves exacted by the war in Uganda, the effects of the oil price shock of 1979-80, the world recession, adverse terms of trade in Tanzania’s exports, a series of drought years and above all the decline in agricultural and industrial performance caused by the need to cut back on imports of essential spares and inputs, with cumulative effect on the economy. In the middle seventies Tanzania’s economy was strong and malleable enough to recover from the first oil price shock and the effects of the severe drought of 1974- 75, but the combined effects of the fresh blows sustained at the turn of the decade proved too much for Tanzania’s frail economy. The result was a downward spiral of economic performance. Escape from this trend was bound to be both difficult and costly and to require the active co-operation of international organisations and friendly countries over a substantial period of time.

The protracted negotiations of Tanzania with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have often been referred to in the ‘Bulletin’. These discussions have extended over a period of more than seven years and until 1986 they have led to no lasting agreement mainly for four reasons. First, Tanzania feared a violent and perhaps uncontrollable rise in inflation as a result of the drastic devaluation demanded by the Fund, bringing with it the risk of civil disorder. Secondly, Tanzania saw the Fund’s proposals as a potential threat to the country’s political ideals. Thirdly, it was calculated that the short term nature and relatively high cost of Fund facilities were bound to impose impossible burdens just at the moment of tentative recovery. Fourthly, IMF finance alone was adequate neither in amount, nor in duration, to fund a recovery programme, The experience of the aborted IMF agreement in 1980 showed that a Fund programme did not automatically open the door to complementary external finance. The Fund’s record elsewhere in the ‘Third World’ was not reassuring. Moreover, Fund support was terminable automatically if Tanzania failed to deliver on the Fund’s performance criteria, leaving the economy in the lurch.

In May 1986, provisional understanding with the IMF was finally reached. This outcome was understood to have been made possible by the presence of the World Bank during negotiations, which introduced a moderating voice into the discussion, emphasizing the need to safeguard Tanzania’s potential for development. Moreover, the participation of the Bank held out the hope of Bank and bilateral support for structural adjustment on soft terms. The approach of the Fund and the Rank in tandem to the problems of the least developed countries during recent years reflects a growing realisation in America and elsewhere that the Fund, with its primary concern for measures needed to restore balance to foreign exchange accounts and the severely restrictive nature of its prescriptions, was not a suitable instrument for dealing alone with the problems of poor countries. This new approach was later described by the US Secretary to the Treasury, James Baker, as “adjustment with growth”.

The negotiations involved from the outset both the Fund and the Bank and on their successful conclusion a so-called Consultative Group Meeting was summoned in Paris on 1Oth and 11th June, at which representatives of the Tanzanian Government were able to explain their proposals for economic regeneration to representatives of the Bank, the IMF, 18 bilateral donor countries, the African Development Bank, the Commission of the European Communities and other bodies. The object of these meetings was to consider how the shortfall in resources to meet a minimum import bill of 1,205 million dollars was to be funded in the first year of the Economic Recovery Programme.

The result was agreement in principle for the first year of a three year programme on an IMF standby credit of 45 million dollars and an IMF structural adjustment facility of 24 million dollars , drawn on the IMF Trust Fund. At the same time the Rank undertook to negotiate a structural adjustment loan of 50 million dollars in the first year of a five year programme and a drawing on the sub-Saharan facility in the same amount, both on ‘soft’ terms**. It was expected that these agreements would facilitate debt rescheduling, thus making possible a resumption of imports with the resources now becoming available as well as reducing the annual debt service burden. Initial negotiations on the debt position are to be held in Paris in mid-September.

The total sum required to close the gap between the minimum import bill and export earnings in the first year was estimated to be 550 million dollars. With debt rescheduling providing some postponement of foreign debt obligations, it was calculated that, after taking into account the contributions from the multilateral organisations, some 260 million dollars would be necessary from bilateral sources. In the event, bilateral commitments of about 150 million dollars *** made at the Paris conference fell short of the desired total by about 100 million dollars As a result, an import bill of 1,100 million dollars is now being assumed for purposes of planning and resource allocation.

Amongst he bilateral donors, the United Kingdom offered $10 million in the first year as so-called ‘programme aid’ to provide foreign exchange for essential imports from the United Kingdom, A further £10 million would be available in 1987-88 subject to continued implementation of the agreed programme. In addition, 255 million of untied aid would be available in 1987-88 in association with the World Bank’s Special Facility for Africa.

These agreements were based on the Tanzanian Government’s Economic Recovery Programme, details of which were disclosed during the budget speech of 19th June 1986. This programme drew on the advice of the Presidential Commission on Exports under the chairmanship of Hon. Amir Jamal MP, whose report was submitted in August 1985, by making a radical adjustment of the exchange rate and by further increasing producer prices. The price of the shilling had already been adjusted downward from Tshs 17.7 to the dollar in 1985 to Tshs 29.4 to the dollar in early June 1986. On 20th June the value was fixed at Tshs 40 to the US dollar, or roughly 60 shillings to the pound. Devaluation in successive steps rather than a single mighty jump suggests that with Bank support, Tanzania’s policy of stepwise adjustment had prevailed over the Fund’s preference for a single drastic reduction in shilling values. The Tanzanian approach was held to provide the best means of keeping inflation under control. Henceforth the rate is to be adjusted monthly in line with Tanzanian inflation and at the end of July a rate of Tshs 42 to the dollar had been reached. Devaluation may mike some Tanzanian exports more competitive on world markets, except in those cases where prices are fixed internationally, or quantities determined by quota, but it will also increase the shilling price of imports, thus immediately triggering substantial price rises, the amount varying in accordance with the import content of particular commodities. Only in the longer run, as production levels in industry rise from the present average capacity utilisation of between 20% and 30% and as economic infrastructure, notably roads, railways, vehicles, fuel and spares, is improved, will downward pressures on the price level gather strength. Mercifully, the fall in oil prices has recently brought some relief.

The prices paid to producers of Tanzania’s exports were substantially raised in the 1984 budget, but now further increases took place in amounts varying from 80% for coffee to 30% for cotton and tobacco. In general, it is planned to maintain producer prices at 60% to 70% of export prices at the Tanzanian port, The Government also plans where possible to limit the increases in price of agricultural equipment and inputs by changes in taxation and by encouraging new investment. To cushion to some extent the inevitable sharp rise in the cost of living, allowances will be paid to teachers amounting to 25% of salary, while civil servants will be given allowances ranging from 30% of gross earnings on the minimum wage to 2.5% on salaries in excess of shs.6,000 per month, pending the recommendations of the Nsekela Commission on public sector salaries at the end of 1986 At the same time the rates of income tax will be revised downwards. Hitherto, tax has been collected at rates varying from 25% to 95%, but henceforth rates will range from 20% to 75% The combined results of these changes in salary and income tax will be an increase in monthly earnings ranging from 30% for minimum wage earners to 14.4% for those earning more than Tshs. 6,000 per month, Without departing from the general redistributive function of income tax, the intention is to give the maximum relief to the poorest and at the same time to provide additional incentives for those in the middle and upper salary ranges. The incomes of those outside the civil service are expected to rise in similar fashion.

To stimulate domestic saving, interest rates will be raised in stages until they reach a level commensurate with the market value of capital. Furthermore, strict national housekeeping and increased external resource flows will progressively reduce the budget deficit t o be financed by bank borrowing from Tshs. 5,200 million in the 1985-86 budget to Tshs 2,500 million in 1986-87. Budgetary control as a means of reducing inflation occupies a prominent place in the Economic Recovery Programme. Government financing of parastatal deficits will be ended and additional domestic finance will be available to them only through internal savings, or through the financial institutions. This objective, it must be said, has featured in successive budgets, but has not hitherto been achieved.

The Economic Recovery Programme has been planned over a period of three years. Total minimal foreign exchange resources required in 1986- 87 will be 1,205 million dollars, though, as already stated, finance for only 1,100 million dollars is expected to be forthcoming. In the second and third years the requirement will rise to 1,230 million dollars in 1987-88 and 1,300 million dollars in 1988-89. The hope is that this level of resources will enable Tanzania to increase her export earnings by 11.6% in 1987, 19% in 1988 and 19% in 1989, thus raising export income from an estimated 400 million dollars in 1986 to 632 million dollars in 1989, Even this will take Tanzania less than half way towards the goal of self-reliance in foreign trade. The target requirement of foreign exchange resources is, moreover, minimal and leaves little room for imports that are not essential to the Recovery Programme, or for the accumulation of contingency reserves.

The Minister of Finance has recognised that the attainment of self- sustained growth will be a long haul – he has suggested five to seven years – and steps are now being taken to work out a Second Union Plan covering a five-year period from July 1887, based on economic trends and future prospects. The future will also depend on the human reaction to measures now being taken. There is a good deal of evidence both in Tanzania and elsewhere that peasant farmers react sensitively to incentives and disincentives both in the volume of their marketed output and in their choice of crops. The budget seeks to provide incentives by increasing producer rewards, improving access to farm machinery and inputs, and increasing the supply of common consumption goods by restoring industry to reasonable levels of output. Improved performance within parastatal and private industry is encouraged by alterations in the income tax structure, an improved flow of foreign inputs and machinery spares and a stricter credit regime. But not all human incentives are amenable to financial manipulation and much depends on the quality of leadership given by the Government and the Party. People work hard irrespective of material gain when they believe in what they are doing.
Very grave dangers lie ahead. The initial inflation provoked by devaluation may prove to be much more serious than expected, causing damage to public morale and risks of urban disorder. Industrial regeneration relies on foreign purchases, which will only become possible when new external resources become available . Agriculture, on which the country mainly relies for increased exports, is unavoidably slow to respond to new planting, better husbandry, increased inputs and improved infrastructure. So there will inevitably be a substantial period of greatly increased costs and negligible gains before the benefits of the recovery programme take hold. This time lag will be damagingly increased if there is delay in the payment of donor contributions. Finally, the underfunding of imports by 100 million dollars is a matter of considerable concern. The future is, therefore, – full of uncertainties. It now remains to be seen whether by astute management the Tanzanian Government can survive the interregnum and use this limited opportunity to reverse the country’s economic decline.

J . Roger Carter.

*Of Tanzania’s debt outstanding in 1984, 80.3% was from official sources and largely at concessionary rates, while 19,7% was from private sources.

**’Soft’ terms are negotiated by the Bank’s affiliate, the International Development Association, and provide for a 50 year maturity and repayment beginning after 10 years. There are no interest payments, but a service charge of 0,75% on the disbursed balance and a commitment charge of 0.5% on the undisbursed balance are levied.

***Outright grants or loans or concessional terms.

FREE SPEECH

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Reply

The Budget debate in the National Assembly on the estimates of different Ministries of Government has been characterised by a great deal of free speech.

Amongst those suffering an avalanche of criticism was the Minister of Communications and Works. Part of the debate was reported in the “Daily News” as follows:

The MP for Liwale, Major Abbas Ngayaga demanded that the Government should explain properly the reasons delaying the construction of the Kibiti-Lindi road for over two decades. He said that the people in the southern regions had at one time decided to work on the project on a self-help basis, but the Government restrained them saying that it would handle the project. Since then nothing had been done. He t old the House that the Southern Region could not carry on commercial production because they could not transport the produce for lack of reliable roads.

Kajor Ngayaga also called on Cabinet Ministers and other senior Government officials to stop blaming every problem the country was facing on “the difficult economic situation,” saying that such lame excuses demoralised the people. “If they are not blaming the problems on the difficult economic situation, then they are blaming it on the break-up of the East African Community, dictator Idi Amin’s war of aggression or lack of assistance from donors” he said. “It was hypocritical for the Government to talk of a “difficult economic situation” when people caught stealing Government property were not being taken to task” he continued.

Ndugu Alfani Kihiyo (Korogwe) said that the Segera-Tanga road remained as bad as ever with the Mwananchi Engineering and Construction Corporation (MECCO) “dilly dallying” on the road in the name of carrying out repairs.

Ndugu Edward Lowasa (National) said that he could not understand why Air Tanzania Corporation (ATC) failed to make profits in its domestic operations. He said the defunct East African Airways used to make its profit in Tanzania where there were more passengers and airports than in Kenya and Uganda. He said he was shocked to learn from the Minister’s estimates that ATC books had not been audited, “How can one run such a big airline without auditing its books ?” he asked. On airports, Ndugu Lowasa said that he could also not understand why the Ministry took 3 months to float a tender for the reconstruction of the Mwanza Airport. He said Mwanza airport was one of the most important airports in the country and should not have been left to disintegrate.

Ndugu Mussa Shaaban Rajab (Kikwajuni) also slated ATC for cancellation of flights and corruption, threatening to withhold a shilling if the Ministry did not give satisfactory information on steps taken against certain ATC officials who had “subjected passengers coming to the Isles to hardships.”

And so it went on. Day after day and Ministry after Ministry